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If the 2014 elections were held today, Republicans would be in grave danger of losing control of the House of Representatives, according to a series of 24 surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling in Republican-held House districts over the past few days. The surveys challenge the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach for Democrats.

The surveys show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.

The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are:

CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07,MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07

The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are:

CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02

The districts where the incumbent Republican leads in both head-to-head ballot tests are:

CA-21, NV-03, OH-06
http://www.scribd.com/doc/173826158/GOP-could-lose-the-House-in-2014]

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