REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Despite what doom/gloomers say, economy roars on.

POSTED BY: AURAPTOR
UPDATED: Sunday, March 19, 2023 13:18
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Thursday, August 16, 2007 7:08 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It'll pull out a bit.

But I wonder what would happen if the Dow broke the magic 12000 mark? Do you suppose there'd be a panic?

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Thursday, August 16, 2007 11:14 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY


Down 16 now.
"Oh god, oh god, we're all gonna die"
Hey wait a second...

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Thursday, August 16, 2007 1:21 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Since Bush took office the DOW's gained 1,000 points from 12,000. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DJIA&s
id=1643&o_symb=DJIA&freq=2&time=13
(That's a measley 8% in 7 years.) But if it had kept up with inflation (using the BLS calculator found here http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm ) it would be at 14,500. So it's actually gone --- backwards.

***************************************************************
"Only 1,500 points to go and I'll be out of the hole."

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Friday, August 17, 2007 12:53 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
"And you never did answer my question about how long it took you to find this thread again"

Less than a minute. I know how to do efficient searches.

So to YOU it doesn't matter that the economy is tanking now ? Is that what you're implying ?




The economy isn't 'tanking' now. That's only the talk of scared little people who don't see the big picture.

People love a happy ending. So every episode, I will explain once again that I don't like people. And then Mal will shoot someone. Someone we like. And their puppy. - Joss

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

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Friday, August 17, 2007 1:33 AM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
The economy isn't 'tanking' now. That's only the talk of scared little people who don't see the big picture.

Some people thrive on terror.

Although it is interesting that if Rue is talking about the economy “tanking” that implies that he’s finally come around to the reality that the economy was doing well 16 months ago when this thread started, since the economy can’t tank if it was never doing well to begin with. 16 months from now Rue will realize the economy isn’t “tanking” today.

Maybe that's the problem with Left-wing economic theory? It’s always 16 months behind everyone else.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Friday, August 17, 2007 2:36 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Finn, Auraptor- If you look at America's indebtedness you'll that retail spending has been propped up in part by credit cards and home equity loans. Home equity loans have been made easier by (1) increasing home values and (2) "creative" loan practices (exploding loans, interest-only loans etc.) BOTH of those were due to come to a screeching halt the minute the Fed raised interest rates. Also, don't forget that a lot of institutions - banks, insurance companies, annuities, pension funds- have placed money into the real estate sector above and beyond direct loans to homebuyers. We had one of our (AAA-rated) pension funds actually placed in receivership during the LAST real estate crash because they had invested most of their portfolio into commercial real estate. It's possible that some funds will crash and burn in this real estate shakeout.

Just how much this will affect the entire economy depends on how much home equity loans have fueled consumption AND investment in the stock market. I don't have a good "read" on that value.



---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Friday, August 17, 2007 4:31 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Finn
You can start out barely awash and tank from there.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, August 17, 2007 4:31 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Rap

Anything to back up your little opinion ? No, as usual.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, August 17, 2007 4:39 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I don't know if this belongs in the Legal Tender thread or here, but I never expected the Fed to intervene in the stock market/ liquidity crisis to the tune of half-percent! Yowza! That's unprecedented.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Sunday, August 26, 2007 6:23 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Fed bends rules to help two big banks
If the Federal Reserve is waiving a fundamental principle in banking regulation, the credit crunch must still be sapping the strength of America's biggest banks. Fortune's Peter Eavis documents an unusual Fed move.

---------------------------------
Saw THAT comin'.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007 6:22 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Household incomes rise but ...
Census Bureau reports slight rise in 2006 incomes but as a group, households aren't doing as well as before the 2001 recession August 28 2007

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Household income crept higher and the poverty rate edged lower last year, the government said Tuesday, while the number of Americans without health insurance rose by 2.2 million to 47 million people.

Median household income rose 0.7 percent to $48,200, adjusted for inflation, the Census Bureau reported. But more people had to be at work in each household to get there.

That's because median earnings for individuals working full-time year-round actually fell for the third consecutive year.
For men, earnings slipped 1.1 percent to a median of $42,300, while for women, earnings sank 1.2 percent to a median of $32,500. The percent of Americans living below the poverty line, meanwhile, slipped to 12.3 percent in 2006, or about 36.5 million people, from 12.6 percent, or 37 million, the year before. The drop in the number of people living in poverty is not a statistically significant change, but the rate of decline is, and while it is the first drop since 2000, the poverty rate is still above the 11.7 percent rate during the last recession in 2001.

Well, Bush's policies are good for somebody but it's not the average American!



---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007 9:26 AM

FLETCH2


So did incomes actually fall in real dollars or in inflation adjusted dollars?

There was an interesting radio program on the psychological underpinnings of economics which said amongst other things that people where far more conscious of loss than gains, so people thought that getting a 3% rise when inflation was at 5% to be better than taking a 2% cut in an economy with 0% inflation.

It would be interesting to know if actual median income actually fell this year, that would be an incredibly important indicator of public confidence, if on the other hand wages failed to keep up with inflation that would not be as informative.

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Friday, August 31, 2007 5:26 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Fletch2- your ?? got lost in the shuffle. Needs some research.

Meanwhile, back in Auraptor-land:

I've been watching the housing bubble get bigger and bigger and bigger and...driven by speculation and based on artificially low interest rates. By injecting "phony money" into the economy, as it got bigger it lifted a whole bunch of stuff:

housing sales, construction, home improvement
home equity lines of credit
vehicle sales specifically and retail sales generally
mortgage brokers and banking stocks
stocks in general
employment

Having lived through several housing bubbles, stock bubbles etc. I knew that like all good bubbles, this too would come to a sudden and painful end. And not only would housing prices fall they would take out a whole list of other sectors domino-style. If you were to be able to ask my colleagues at work, you'd know that I've been joking for about a year to get ready to invest in bank stocks because they were going to drop.

Nobody is talking "recession" much less "panic", but the depth of behind-the-scenes worry is indicated by the fact that Bush AND Bernanke look to step in big-time.

Bush to propose subprime plan
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/31/news/economy/bush_subprime/index.htm?p
ostversion=2007083104

Bernanke: Fed ready to act
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/31/news/economy/fed_bernanke/index.htm?cn
n=yes


Bernanke has already taken several "unusual" moves, as have the big four banks by borrowing against the Fed in a show of solidarity with Countrywide and the other sub-prime lenders.

All of this just shows that the current economy is a house of cards. The BIG card propping it all up... easy money to consumers... has already fallen.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Friday, September 7, 2007 7:52 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
mortgage_delinquencies;_ylt=AjrETgdM4zIXcqzP9w0SZbis0NUE

New mortgage foreclosures set record


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20070907/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AmE6_S9PvYoJd4TtBeSxEAus0NUE

Stocks plunge, bonds up on weak job data


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20070907/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=ApfhVYNdX2BkDnnuDsiZJAys0NUE

Payrolls drop for first time in 4 years


Oh, and while we're on the topic:
http://www.pollingreport.com/consumer.htm
Interviewing End Date 9/2/07
Consumer Comfort Index -17

Now, who could ever have imagined this ...

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, September 7, 2007 9:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It's like WMD. Some people only see what they want to see....

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 3:35 AM

MAL4PREZ


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
It's like WMD. Some people only see what they want to see....

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.



I'm wanting to test my new sig, but also amused by what some of the usual posters were saying about the economy back in early 2007. So bump to this old one. Have fun looking through it.

Just keep in mind - everytime Rappy posts, he/it thinks of all the rest of us as marks. Our reaction in all he wants, not any actual communication. Hence nothing he/it says is an honest belief or statement of opinion.



The "Rap" is here only to troll. See http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57146
*------------------------------------------------------------------------------*
MAL4PREZ: Clearly [The Rap]'s doing nothing but trolling now.
STORYMARK: And not even cleverly.
RAPPY: [My trolling] did its job, did it not? Easiest marks in the 'verse.
*---

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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 3:46 AM

SHINYGOODGUY


And all this with a Socialist President, King Obama, in charge of the refreshments............funny how that talk has gone the way of the Edsel.


SGG


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
( Just more fuel for the economy which is on FIRE! )

U.S. Stocks Rise on Verizon Profit; S&P 500 Nears 5-Year High

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose as earnings from Verizon Communications Inc. exceeded analysts' forecasts, easing concern that higher interest rates may curb profit growth. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index reached an almost five-year high.

TXU Corp. led a rebound in utility shares as the largest Texas power producer said profit climbed on higher electricity prices. A drop in Treasury yields also boosted the group.

Emerson Electric Co., the world's biggest maker of power supplies for telecommunications systems, and Archer Daniels Midland Co., the No. 1 grain processor, joined Verizon in reporting results that topped Wall Street's expectations.

``We still keep seeing better-than-expected earnings,'' said Cummins Catherwood, who helps manage $800 million at Walnut Asset Management in Philadelphia. Companies such as Verizon and Emerson are ``posting some impressive stuff. That gives me encouragement about our economy.''

The S&P 500 added 7.46, or 0.6 percent, to 1312.65 at 2:18 p.m. in New York, the highest since May 21, 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 74.76, or 0.7 percent, to 11,418.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.70, or 0.3 percent, to 2310.49.

Stocks reached their highs in early afternoon trading as Treasury yields fell to their lows on the day and a gain in oil prices lifted energy shares.

Almost two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 1.14 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, in line with the same time a week ago.

Exceeding Forecasts

Better-than-expected reports have lifted the earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter to 14.1 percent, from 13.6 percent a week ago, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. chief market analyst Mary Ann Bartels.

Stocks made up most of their declines from a day ago, when remarks attributed to Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested the central bank may not pause its series of 15 straight interest rate increases soon.

People love a happy ending. So every episode, I will explain once again that I don't like people. And then Mal will shoot someone. Someone we like. And their puppy. - Joss

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "


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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 3:51 AM

SHINYGOODGUY


Ah, finally someone speaking truth......did I hear a rumor that a certain president was a socialist and was "redistributing the wealth" - how soon they forget when the money rolls in.


SGG


Quote:

Originally posted by Storymark:
You folks are missing the point. The Republicans say the economy is strong, so it is. End of story. Now do as you're told and shut the hell up.

Though, from this Admin's point of view, the economy is strong. Oil companies are raking it in, the rich are getting richer, and to hell with anyone without a yacht.

"I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him."


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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 1:48 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Wow, THAT'S a blast from the past!

Rappy, in 2007, claiming the economy's on fire (or words to that effect). heh heh heh

And despite the fact that he got his ass handed to him on WMD, this topic, Bush's Constitutional violations (he was OK with them then) and torture... he's like a Timex: Takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'. Hasn't learned a thing.

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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 2:06 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


My economy is good. I grossed less than 10k this year and still made out with 90 bucks to my name even though my computer, my recently installed sump-pump and a tire on my car all failed in December.

I love my life in my own paid for house.

It's like living in my mom's basement, but without any rules!


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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 4:03 PM

MAL4PREZ


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Wow, THAT'S a blast from the past!

Rappy, in 2007, claiming the economy's on fire (or words to that effect). heh heh heh

And despite the fact that he got his ass handed to him on WMD, this topic, Bush's Constitutional violations (he was OK with them then) and torture... he's like a Timex: Takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'. Hasn't learned a thing.



I like how you pointed out to him the rot inside the "roaring" economy, the indicators of the crash to come, but he wouldn't hear a word of it. Funny thing, that the ails of the economy could be clearly seen by those who really *looked* in 2007, and yet the RWAs have and will continue to try to blame the crash of fall, 2008 on Obama.


The "Rap" is here only to troll. See http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57146
*------------------------------------------------------------------------------*
MAL4PREZ: Clearly [The Rap]'s doing nothing but trolling now.
STORYMARK: And not even cleverly.
RAPPY: [My trolling] did its job, did it not? Easiest marks in the 'verse.
*---

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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 4:08 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Thanx for this, Mal4...very educational! I see the "usual suspects" haven't had the guts to show their faces yet...


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Tuesday, December 31, 2013 5:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
( Just more fuel for the economy which is on FIRE! )

U.S. Stocks Rise on Verizon Profit; S&P 500 Nears 5-Year High

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose as earnings from Verizon Communications Inc. exceeded analysts' forecasts, easing concern that higher interest rates may curb profit growth. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index reached an almost five-year high.

TXU Corp. led a rebound in utility shares as the largest Texas power producer said profit climbed on higher electricity prices. A drop in Treasury yields also boosted the group.

Emerson Electric Co., the world's biggest maker of power supplies for telecommunications systems, and Archer Daniels Midland Co., the No. 1 grain processor, joined Verizon in reporting results that topped Wall Street's expectations.

``We still keep seeing better-than-expected earnings,'' said Cummins Catherwood, who helps manage $800 million at Walnut Asset Management in Philadelphia. Companies such as Verizon and Emerson are ``posting some impressive stuff. That gives me encouragement about our economy.''

The S&P 500 added 7.46, or 0.6 percent, to 1312.65 at 2:18 p.m. in New York, the highest since May 21, 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 74.76, or 0.7 percent, to 11,418.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.70, or 0.3 percent, to 2310.49.

Stocks reached their highs in early afternoon trading as Treasury yields fell to their lows on the day and a gain in oil prices lifted energy shares.

Almost two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Some 1.14 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board, in line with the same time a week ago.

Exceeding Forecasts

Better-than-expected reports have lifted the earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter to 14.1 percent, from 13.6 percent a week ago, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. chief market analyst Mary Ann Bartels.

Stocks made up most of their declines from a day ago, when remarks attributed to Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested the central bank may not pause its series of 15 straight interest rate increases soon.

People love a happy ending. So every episode, I will explain once again that I don't like people. And then Mal will shoot someone. Someone we like. And their puppy. - Joss

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "




WHATEVER HE SAID = BULLSHIT


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Wednesday, January 1, 2014 12:46 AM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Hi-larious

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Saturday, March 18, 2023 5:00 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Biden blames bank failures on Trump signing 2018 bill passed with significant Democrat support

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/biden-blames-bank-failu
res-trump-signing-bill-democrats-voted-2018

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Saturday, March 18, 2023 8:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


And is idiot voting base buys it.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Sunday, March 19, 2023 8:22 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
It shouldn't have taken a brainiac to see THIS coming....
Quote:

MORTGAGE CRISIS OVERHELMING CREDIT COUNSELORS

... Phones at credit counselors across the country are now ringing off the hook. The industrial heartland has been particularly hard-hit. Ohio had the highest number of home foreclosures in 2006, while neighboring Michigan and Indiana -- all sideswiped by the faltering U.S. auto industry -- were close behind.

Housing analysts predict between 1 million and 3 million U.S. homes will be foreclosed upon in 2007. Already a wave of defaults on subprime mortgages held by those with poor credit have caused a crisis in parts of the industry, and some economists believe a recession could result.

"We knew it was going to be bad, but we didn't think it would be this bad," said Britton, echoing many who warned that increasingly exotic mortgage programs -- including those that required no down payment on home purchases --would come back to haunt home buyers.



www.cnn.com/2007/US/03/22/subprime.counselors.reut/index.html

The economy has been running on consumption bouyed by refinancing based on rising home prices based on low interest rates. But if rising interest rates tank aggregate demand, then the economy goes south. The Fed "fix" is to lower interest rates. Which lowers the value of the dollar. SO in areas where the USA is competing internationally for commodities, goods, and services- such as oil, chemicals, and software engineering- then those commodities become relatively more expensive.

Hmmm... I'm glad I invested in foreign currency and gold. It'll be interesting to see who that works out.

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

The fundamentals still apply TODAY.

It's not fucking magic, people!

As an aside, one thing that people consnatly conflate is finacialism and "economy".

Just because bubbles are being blown on cheap money doesn't mean "the economy" is doing great. And conversely, just because bubbles are popping doesn't mean the economy is doing poorly. Two separate things. Altho, in THIS country, bc all we have left is financialism, popped bubbles can be catastrophic.



-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


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Sunday, March 19, 2023 9:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bring on the deflation.

--------------------------------------------------

Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Sunday, March 19, 2023 1:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Economies and finances are tricky things, even if a govenment has control over most of it.

China for example has direct conrol over a fair bit of production through State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Theoretically, they also control financialism because they have a national bank, the People's Bank of China (PBoC). However, they have many private banks and "shadow banks" that lend money, so they don't have guaranteed control of money-printing (since lenders in effect print money if they lend money that they don't have in their possession i.e. partial reserve banking)

IMHO they made a mistake when they based their economic model on being a net exporter and relied on foreign markets (USA first, then the EU) and foreign investment (ditto).

Well, as interesting as this topic is, for me, I have to get to this later.

-----------
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." - Henry Kissinger


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