REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

January Hasn’t Been As Cold As You Think

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Friday, January 24, 2014 15:04
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VIEWED: 1484
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Thursday, January 23, 2014 1:13 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

Many Americans may be freezing now, but the data shows January hasn't been that frigid

January 2014 will go down as the month we all learned about the polar vortex (even if meteorologists have known about it for decades). It’s the month when it got so cold that Minnesota closed all schools for the first time since 1997, when much of the Midwest was more frigid than the North Pole, when even Tampa experienced temperatures below freezing. As I write, much of the eastern half of the country is suffering through another bitter cold snap—not caused by the vortex, FYI—one that has blanked the East Coast in heavy snow. Winter, in short, has felt miserable.

But here’s the surprise: on a historical and national level, it hasn’t actually been all that cold.

Jan. 2014: Average High; Historical Average High
New York: 38 F (3.3 C; 36 F (2.2 C)
Los Angeles: 76 F (24.4 C); 68 F (20 C)
Chicago: 27 F (-2.7 C); 32 F (0 C)
Houston: 64 F (17.8 C); 63 F (17.2 C)
Philadelphia: 40 F (4.4 C); 41 F (5 C)
Phoenix: 73 F (22. 8 C); 67 F (19.4 C)
San Antonio: 66 F (18.9 C); 63 F (17.2 C)
San Diego: 72 F (22.2 C); 65 F (18.3 C)
Dallas: 58 F (14.4 C); 57 F (13.9 C)
San Jose: 66 F (18.9 C); 58 F (14.4 C)

What do we learn from this? Well for one thing, there’s an East Coast bias in news coverage, at least of the weather. But while it truly has been historically cold on average for much of the Midwest, for most of the rest of the country the average temperatures have been around normal, or even a little above. And the West Coast is experiencing an unusually hot winter (one that has compounded the record drought in California). Average high temperatures have been further above normal in Los Angeles and San Jose than they’ve been below average in Chicago. Anchorage has been positively balmy—by Alaskan standards—with average daily highs that are 11 F (6.1 C) greater than the historical average for January.

So why has this month felt so unusually cold for so many Americans? Probably because it has been — at least compared to recent history. An Associated Press analysis found that from 1900 on, cold extremes happened about once every four years. But when the average temperature in the U.S. dropped below 18 F on Jan. 6, it was the first time the country had been that cold on average in 17 years. And that day was only the 55th coldest day in recorded U.S. history, much warmer than the 12 F average recorded on Christmas Eve 1983.

The climate has been changing, but so have we, adjusting to what you might call a new normal. It’s an example of “shifting baselines,” a term first coined by the fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly ( http://science.time.com/2013/08/01/shifting-baselines-why-the-environm
ent-is-even-worse-off-than-you-think
/). Once a New York City January when high temperatures were 38 F on average would have seemed on the warmish side. But as the climate has changed—and it has, with winters in New York State more than 1 F warmer on average now than in 1970 ( http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-
us-15590
) — so have our perceptions of what’s normal. So when we get a winter that would have been pretty average four decades ago, it feels like a deep freeze.

And who knows, by 2100—when average temperatures in the U.S. might be as much as 11 F higher if nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions—our descendants might even get a freak January in New York when average temperatures actually fall below 40 F. And they’ll call it a cold snap. http://science.time.com/2014/01/22/average-temperatures-in-january-war
m-despite-cold/#ixzz2rFL9ejNK



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Thursday, January 23, 2014 1:19 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Interesting how you can have a January 2014 average high, when there's still a week left in January 2014.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Thursday, January 23, 2014 1:23 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...







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Thursday, January 23, 2014 1:31 PM

STORYMARK


Its been so warm here in NM, we are very worried about how bad our ongoing drought is going to become. January/February are typically our coldest months by a wide margin - and they actually turned the AC units on at my school last week, because it was so warm.




"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Thursday, January 23, 2014 3:41 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


It's been colder , actually.

Quote:

“Bottom line,” says WSB meteorologist Kirk Mellish. “This isn’t quite as cold as the first visit from the polar vortex, but it’s lasting much longer.”

Mellish says this is the longest stretch of bitter cold weather that we’ve seen in about three years. And it’s only going to get colder before it gets better .

http://www.wsbradio.com/news/news/coldest-weather-still-come-arctic-bl
ast/ncyc8
/




Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Thursday, January 23, 2014 9:10 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:







So where's the data for January 2014?

If you post an article about January 2014 average temps, you'd think you could at least wait until January 2014 was over.





"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Thursday, January 23, 2014 9:22 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


So what if there's still 8 days left in the month as this story was written...
THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED, remember ?

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, January 24, 2014 7:05 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Friday Jan. 24

Current temperature

9 degrees.

( So, even if the wind chill makes it FEEL like it's below zero, it's not as cold as you think, right ? )



Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, January 24, 2014 9:21 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Friday Jan. 24

Current temperature

9 degrees.

( So, even if the wind chill makes it FEEL like it's below zero, it's not as cold as you think, right ? )



Yeah.

My home weather station showed 8 degrees Wednesday morning, 4.8 degrees yesterday, and 7 this morning. Forecast is for one day (Saturday) with temps above freezing for the rest of the month.

Using actual figures for January 2014 to date, plus forecast figures for the rest of the month, I find the average high will be 39.6 and the average low 23.7. The overall average January high is 43, and the low 29.

So I'd have to say, yes, it has been as cold as I think.



"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Friday, January 24, 2014 10:35 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


@ 10:30ish, the temp has soared to 12 degrees.

There are reports of snow falling in Mobile, AL.

Still, not a very cold January.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, January 24, 2014 11:37 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Called my sis to see how the weather was doing in upstate NY (the part that is NOT New York City) and what she said confirmed my long-distance impression

This is the kind of winter that I remember as a child.

Yanno, when we were children in upstate NY, the weather was effing cold. We almost always had snow for Xmas, but sometimes we'd even have snow for Thanksgiving. We'd wait expectantly for the ground to freeze because then we'd know that the snow would "stick". We had to walk about 1/2 mile to the bus stop, so I remember HOW cold it was... the snow squeaked under our boots. Beautiful frost patterns would form between the outer (storm) window and the inner window. As time went on, it seemed to happen less and less, until one winter when I was in college we had a spell of shirtsleeve weather, something which had never happened in my memory, or anybody else's for that matter. The older folks all appreciated it, but I still love snow and cold, and was disappointed to see less and less of it.

So, for a good explanation of what's happening around the world...

Quote:

It happened to Europe last year. A persistent erosion of Arctic sea ice
Which according to rappy isn't happening
Quote:

set off changes to the polar jet stream
Which Geezer refuses to acknowledge
Quote:

that locked in place a severe winter weather pattern that pummeled the central and western European countries for much of the winter. Storm after storm piled snow high in locations that typically saw only modest winter precipitation while other areas were simply buried. The US also took a glancing blow from this extreme storm configuration.

But now, with a large trough in the polar Jet remaining locked in place for almost a year, the US from the Rockies eastward appears to be in the line of fire for some very severe winter weather.

In other regions from Alaska to Eastern Europe, record or near record warmth and dryness have settled in with a large swath of eastern Europe showing average temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average. Over the extreme northern Pacific, adjacent to Alaska and the Bering Sea, seasonal temperature range from 4-12 degrees Celsius above average.

According to rappy, these parts of the globe don't exist
Quote:

And it is this extreme northward invasion of warm air that is displacing polar and Arctic air masses toward the east and south, putting much of the US in the firing line for strange and severe winter weather.
Severe weather- geezer thinks this isn't happening.
Quote:

A Tale of Jet Streams and Melting Sea Ice

To understand how human caused global warming can make winter storms more severe in some areas while other areas hardly experience winter at all, one should first take a look at two major governors of Northern Hemisphere weather: the circumpolar Jet Stream and Arctic sea ice.

An extreme difference between the temperatures at high northern latitudes and at more temperate latitudes has driven a very rapid flow of upper level air called the Jet Stream for almost all of human meteorological reckoning. This high temperature difference drove powerful upper level winds from west to east. These winds tended to modulate only slightly and when they did, powerful weather events tended to occur.

Locking a greater portion of this cold air in place was the northern hemisphere ice cap, most of which was composed of a large swath of sea ice covering much of the northern oceans. This high volume of cold, reflective ice kept temperatures up north very, very low

I seem to recall saying more than once that when the ice melts, all hell will break loose.
Quote:

... But since 1979, massive volumes of sea ice have been lost... Sea ice retreat has been equally unprecedented with average winter values now 15-20% below extent measures seen during 1979 and with end summer sea ice extent values now a stunning 35-50% below that of 1979. Sea ice volume, the measure of total ice including its thickness, has shown even more stunning losses since 1979 with seasonal winter values 30-35% lower than in 1979 and end summer values between 65 and 80% lower during recent years.
More here

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/12/10/winter-2013-2014-sea-i
ce-loss-locks-jet-stream-into-severe-winter-storm-pattern-for-most-of-us
/


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Friday, January 24, 2014 11:47 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


AGW is not happening .

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, January 24, 2014 12:11 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.





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Friday, January 24, 2014 12:23 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Just to clarify , as you seem to enjoy misrepresenting ( lying ) about what I do / don't admit is happening.



Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, January 24, 2014 12:54 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.





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Friday, January 24, 2014 1:11 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Which Geezer refuses to acknowledge



All I refuse to acknowledge is that it hasn't been as cold as I think, and that the January 2014 average temperatures here will be lower than the historic January average temperatures.

I think I've shown that pretty conclusively.

Once again, Niki has cited an article (without attribution) that is pretty well spun, by, among other things, cherry-picking which cities to list.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Friday, January 24, 2014 1:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

All I refuse to acknowledge is that it hasn't been as cold as I think
What I've pointed out is that the weather hasn't been relatively cold everywhere; that while some areas have been colder in comparison to the last 20 years or so, other areas have been warmer compared to the same time period. And, looking back further, the weather was actually colder back then.

So, I don't know how cold you think the weather has been ... maybe in your area quite cold... but the media has focused on the East Coast and more recent weather, while neglecting to cover other areas and further distant times, creating a biased impression that the weather had been really cold "everywhere".

One good thing about this cold snap: invasive beetles which have been advancing due to the several decades of relatively warm winters have had their mandibles clipped. GOOD! We should have more cold snaps.


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Friday, January 24, 2014 1:55 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


"Once again, Niki has cited an article (without attribution)" -- Blatant lie. The cite link is right there at the end of the article: http://science.time.com/2014/01/22/average-temperatures-in-january-war
m-despite-cold/#ixzz2rFL9ejNK


Two OTHER cites are also included within the article to back up the facts presented. The charts clearly are headlined "Climate Central" and come from the second cite, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-
us-15590
. They are "interactive" Adobe Flash Player charts, so I couldn't copy/paste them, thus I took screen shots and posted them as .gifs.

Responding beyond this would be feeding the trollS. You can continue if you want to, Sig, but I've had enough of their bullshit.


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Friday, January 24, 2014 2:02 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
-- Blatant lie. The cite link is right there at the end of the article:



Okay. Sorry. It was inside the quotes, so I thought it was just another cite in the story.




"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Friday, January 24, 2014 2:19 PM

JONGSSTRAW


74 and sunny here in Ft. Lauderdale. Played golf with some clients this morning, but needed a sweater 'cause it was a little chilly early on. Love this global warming stuff!

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Friday, January 24, 2014 2:29 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


For jonggsie...



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Friday, January 24, 2014 2:47 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
-- Blatant lie. The cite link is right there at the end of the article:



Okay. Sorry. It was inside the quotes, so I thought it was just another cite in the story.




"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."



No! You didn't make a mistake or error...You're a LIAR!!!!

LIAR!!

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, January 24, 2014 3:01 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

For jonggsie...





For sniggy...



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Friday, January 24, 2014 3:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Awww.... a kitty! How cute!


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