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Since the moment the idea was floated by a handful of conservative lawmakers, House Republican leaders have been wary of the tea-party plan to shut down the federal government this fall unless Obamacare is defunded. Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, a veteran of the Gingrich wars, has never been eager to go there, nor has Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia. But they didn’t immediately storm out of their offices and nix the pitch. Instead, due to the fragility of the bonds holding the House GOP together, they have labored behind the scenes, pouring cold water in careful measure on their colleagues’ boiling brinksmanship. By late last week, House insiders say Boehner and Cantor had talked much of their conference away from the edge. “No one is advocating a government shutdown,” Cantor assured me on Friday.

Keeping the roiling House GOP united and away from the shutdown temptation in the weeks ahead won’t be easy, especially as the Beltway’s ever-increasing crowd of conservative organizations prod Republicans to shut down the government as a statement of principle. But my cloakroom sources tell me they’re now confident that House Republicans will not tread into a shutdown battle with the Obama White House. GOP firebrands may threaten a shutdown and theatrically insist it remains an option, but the party’s private appetite for one, even among the right flank, is dissipating. “The electorate expects Congress to govern,” explains pollster David Winston, a longtime adviser to the House leadership. “House Republicans are going to offer their health-care alternatives within that process.”

The House leadership’s aversion to the tea-party plan is driven not only by strategy but also by the fear that having a debate on tactics would devolve into a Republican civil war. Boehner and Cantor, in conversations with fellow members, have reportedly warned that a shutdown would almost undoubtedly end in intraparty strife, owing to the Senate’s Democratic majority. To pass a vote on defunding Obamacare, Republicans would need 14 Senate Democrats to join them, and if Democrats declined, all blame, the thinking goes, would fall back on the House GOP for refusing to pass legislation to fund federal services. In all likelihood, Republicans would then be pressured to rush through a continuing resolution, only to get hit with recriminations and chaos in the wake of a shutdown.

This delicate political situation has forced Boehner and Cantor to work against the shutdown caucus but without antagonizing it. It’s a wink-wink kabuki dance of the highest order. They can’t alienate their conservative members who have been enthralled by the shutdown talk of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, but they can’t have them dictating the fiscal negotiations, either.

A key date in the leadership’s nearly month-long effort was Wednesday, July 31, one of the last days before the House adjourned for the August recess. Two important things happened within an eight-hour period: Boehner calmed the waters at a conference meeting, and Cantor met with conservative leaders over lunch. The net effect of these gestures was to give Republican power brokers, inside and outside Congress, a coherent, if unofficial, understanding of the leadership’s position before members headed home — and before the chatter became a clamor.

In the early morning, Boehner went before House Republicans for a closed-door session in the Capitol basement and outlined his approach. It was Boehner’s most direct statement in weeks about the “defund or shutdown” discussion. He pulled the focus away from the tactic of using shutdown as leverage for defunding the law and argued instead for “well-placed, targeted strikes that will ultimately dissolve the Obamacare coalition". “We’ll have to stick together and communicate,” he said. “But this strategy is achievable. And it’s our best shot at actually getting rid of Obamacare.” Afterward, several members, notably a group of centrist Republicans from targeted districts, approached Boehner and his inner circle and thanked them for trying to usher the party away from a shutdown.

Members were also buzzing about the leadership’s emerging strategy for the autumn talks. Sources tell me the House GOP will probably avoid using a shutdown as leverage and instead use the debt limit and sequester fights as areas for potential legislative trades.

Later Wednesday, around noon, Cantor headed to the Weyrich lunch, an off-the-record gathering of conservative-movement leaders chaired by Morton Blackwell, the president of the Leadership Institute. Cantor talked about the shutdown question in a clinical way, telling the conservatives that he was with them on tearing apart and delaying the law wherever possible, but he didn’t want to risk the House GOP’s political capital on an unwinnable play for Senate votes.

A day later, on August 1, the “Big Four,” as the group of four top-ranking House Republicans is known, met to go over the events of the previous day and the state of play, pre-recess. Boehner reflected on the relative peace of the conference meeting, and Cantor relayed stories from his lunch. Whip Kevin McCarthy of California and conference chair Cathy McMorris-Rodgers of Washington relayed what they were hearing from members. The consensus from the Big Four was that they’d keep moving ahead with their soft push to avoid a shutdown. They’ll aim to nudge the GOP caucus in this direction, and hope members will see it their way once the House reconvenes. Excerpts from http://nationalreview.com/node/355632/print]

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Conservatives Revolt As GOP Tries To Calm Obamacare Shutdown Mania

Just when they seemed to have the situation under control, Republican leaders are facing the wrath of conservatives who are furious that the heads of the party aren’t interested in risking a government shutdown over Obamacare this fall.

Conservative anxieties over the Affordable Care Act are reaching a boil as the law’s major provisions are set to take effect in the coming months. And an all-out grassroots mobilization during the month-long August recess by wealthy right-leaning groups like FreedomWorks and Heritage Action appears to be having an impact. Republican lawmakers have said their constituents are demanding they hold the line.

Michael Burgess (R-TX), who has influence within his caucus on health policy, said the support for the defunding push was “virtually unanimous.”

The Senate Conservatives Fund, a tea party group founded by former Sen. Jim DeMint, planned to launch a statewide campaign targeting Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who is up for re-election next year, and aimed at making him “feel the heat” over Obamacare. The Kentuckian recently observed that a government shutdown “won’t stop Obamacare.”

Meanwhile, FreedomWorks has been keeping a tally of where GOP lawmakers stand on the issue. And Heritage Action’s CEO Michael Needham questioned the fortitude of House Republicans for backing away on the Obamacare shutdown push.

All of this makes it harder for Republicans to avoid a shutdown without compromising their standing among the conservative base. If nothing else, it raises the bar on the sorts of demands they’ll have to make, and the brinkmanship they’ll have to engage in, when it comes time to raise the country’s borrowing limit later this fall.

And expending their political capital on averting needless crises significantly harms the prospects of House GOP leaders marshaling immigration reform through the chamber, a project their conservative base is pushing hard to scuttle. More at http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/08/conservatives-revolt-obamac
are-shutdown.php

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