REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Geopolitical musings

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Tuesday, June 1, 2021 15:04
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Sunday, May 30, 2021 4:28 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


During the massive Russian military "readiness exercises" on the Ukraine border, Biden* called Putin about a month ago and asked for a summit meeting. One is scheduled for June16 in Geneva.

Apparently the Russians agreed to a summit after much negotiation with Jake Sullivan, Biden's* national security advisor. Both the Russians and the Chinese have expressed much skepticism about what might be accomplished with a "not agreement-capable" USA, which has broken pretty much every treaty and agreement it ever signed.

I wonder about the timing of this all, and also the risk that the USA deep state is taking with exposing Biden's presumed diminished mental capacity during two days of direct talks.

The Duran has had several videos about this, and they've mentioned separately, but not all together, what appears to have been a series of coordinated "regime change" projects undertaken by the neocons in the Biden" administration, which were all supposed to have come to fruition in April/May but right now look like belly-up fish floating in scummy water.

Kiev was supposed to invade east Ukraine. USA and British warships were suppposed to be providing support from the Black Sea, and Turkey was supposed to supply drones tothe Kiev-backed soldiers. That failed.

"Ceasar sanctions" - signed by Trump - were supposed to have killed the Syrian economy and made the re-election of Assad impossible. But the sanctions failed to dent support for Assad and he just won the vote.

There were a series of actions against Belarus and its leader, Lukashenko, beginning with protests that were supposed to result in a "color revolution", and - when that filed- moving on the an outright coupbeing plotted against him. Which also failed. The only thing that did was drive Lukashenko -who was ctually somewhat friendly tothe west - deep into Putin's arms. Talk about counter-productive!

And then there was the whole Navalny "poisoning" - a clumsy theater production if there ever was one- that was supposed to result in sanctions that would FINALLY kill NordStream2 (Germany didn't go along with that) and maybe even cause protests and disruptions in Russia itself. But when it was shown that Navalny was getting funding from abroad, most Russians scraped him off as a traitor.

There are prolly some things that we didn't even know about. Like some cyber-bombs that were supposed to go off in Russia, but didn't. (I wonder if the Colonial pipeline hack was a Russian counter-threat. You know how you know that something is seriously wrong when all the officials are telling you "Don't panic"? Well, all of the officials are saying that hack had nothing to do with the Russian government. Of course, if it had been that would be the LAST thing they'd want you to know, bc it exposes our vulnerability to cyberbombs. But that's sheer speculation.)

Meanwhile, Russia and China are having VERY high-level talks (over five days) about political and geoplitical coordination.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-23/china-s-top-diploma
t-to-visit-russia-for-strategic-talks


After that, Yang Jeichi will visit Croatia and Slovenia.

Both Lavrov and various high-level foreign ministers in China have said that there "is no upper limit" on Chinese-Russian collaboration, which is an implied threattoboth USA dn EU.

Given the apparent failure of a series of US-sponsored destabilization efforts, and the failure of USA sanctions to dent Russia, China, Iran and Syrai, what cards does the USA have left to play?

It seems that the Russian-Chinese combine has all of the cards: military. intelligence, financial, economic, and political.

Given that the USA has almost no leverage, what can Biden* hope to accomplish by talking and, more importantly, what would satisfy the Russian-Chinese combine? Outside of meaningless words, that is? What can the USA offer them that they won'teventually achieve between them?






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Sunday, May 30, 2021 4:46 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I didn't see you mention energy.
China, Germany, Russia, Ukraine.

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Sunday, May 30, 2021 12:00 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Yes, energy too. Overall combined resources, if you want to expand on that thought.

Putin has said that Russia has "red lines" too, just like the USA, but he left the listener guessing what those are.

It's not too hard to figure out what some of them are:

attempting to destabilize Russia's "near abroad"
bringing NATO ever-closer to Russia's border
attempting "regime change" operations within Russia
expelling Russian diplomats on silly pretexts and seizing Russian diplomatic property


The Russian-Chines (Iranian) combine has resisted a lot of pressure from the west, including destabilization efforts in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, and attempting to break Taiwan free of its historic link with the mainland.

I don't think that Putin will attempt to negotiate on China's behalf, but Putin/Xi and Lavrov/Yang will have certainly discussed in detail what Russia intends to demand and what Russia (and by extension, China) are willing to offer.

Maybe the offer goes: You leave us alone, and we'll leave you alone. You mess with us, and we'll mess with you.

Aside from successfully resisting western destabilization efforts and slowly bringing various nations into Russia's/China's sphere of influence (Turkey, Belarus, Iran, Syria, Hungary, etc) most of the leverage, IMHO, comes from China, because it is CHINA that has active trade with the west, and lots of dollars and treasuries as hostages.

It could offer loans in USD.
It could dump dollars and treasuries.
It could negate its multi-billion-dollar trade deal with the EU
It could demand to pay saudi Arabia for oil in digital yuan or other non-dollar currency
Full-on arms race between Russia/China and the USA

China, being fully enmeshed with the west, could do a lot of damage.

I think what the Russians will demand as proof of good faith from the faithless USA/EU is the implementation of the Minsk Accords. As a start.

If no agreement is reached I expect to see more military activity from Russiaand possiby from China. China, in theory, has a huge military but they need to get their feet wet in combat situations. Arms race in space, high tech (hypersonic) missiles, nuclear threat (nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarine drones), and conventional weaponry (China)

If things get bad enough, financial squeeze on the dollar and economic squeeze on China/USA and China/EU trade.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

THUGR posts about Putin so much, he must be in love.

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Tuesday, June 1, 2021 3:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


You probably wouldn't know this from western prss, but there's been a lot of speculation what Patrushev (Russia's Security Advisor) and is Chinese equivalent (Yang Jeichi) and their many, many additional delegates across many economic and political sectors have been talking about over so many days.

I've been attempting to find the readout from Russia's National Security Advisor website, but here are some links to what China (via the Global Times) had to say

Quote:

US defense budget a huge bubble ready to burst: Global Times editorial


US President Joe Biden is scheduled to submit the Fiscal Year 2022 budget to Congress on Friday. US media has disclosed in advance that in this $6 trillion budget, $753 billion will be used for defense, an increase of 1.7 percent over the 2021 figure. The huge investment in the US nuclear triad and the support in the Pacific Deterrence Initiative have received particular attention.

This is the largest budget with the most shocking national defense expenditure worldwide. It is worth mentioning that the 1.7 percent increase given by the Democratic government is considered too little by many Republicans. The US defense budget is still about four times that of China, and is almost the sum of the defense budgets of the 15 countries that follow. But there is still such a domestic response. People can imagine how distorted and deformed the US' overall national security concept is.

What the US wants is absolute security. One of its meanings is that it can overwhelm other major powers' will on key issues at critical moments. This is a completely unrealistic goal. The US still feels anxious despite the fact that its defense budget is far ahead, Washington always feels that the defense budget should grow.

The US' national defense has in fact gone beyond the traditional military field, pursuing the overflow of various functions to maintain global hegemony. The US economy is increasingly relying on the hegemony of the US dollar and the country's dominant position in international politics and ideology. The US' super military power has compensated for the weakening of its actual competitiveness in these systems.

In the past, US technological leadership and economic advantages were absolute. But now, such superiority is shrinking. It is complicated to maintain the leadership in those areas, but it is simple and encouraging to raise military expenditure. Thus, the US has unrestrainedly let itself stay deformed as a system.

However, this is destined to be very inefficient. It will cause fundamental trouble to the healthy functioning of the international community and disrupt people's traditional sense of national security. The US could have definitely been the most secure country worldwide, but it has always believed it has the most security challenges. As long as other countries' national strength has increased - although still not as strong as the US and they have no willingness to confront it - the US will have a sense of being threatened.

Washington has perverted greed for national security, and China's rise will definitely have a subversive psychological impact on the US. If China increases its military expenditure by one dollar, then the US will increase by a few dollars to maintain the gap with China. It will stop improving infrastructure or expanding people's welfare, but it will be still not even enough to put all other increased budgets into the defense budget. This is an ambition which is impossible to realize.

China will not be in an arms race with the US. The increase in China's defense budget and military strength is the natural result of economic development and technological progress. Everything happened naturally and China does not need to make difficult choices. China does not have the will to challenge the US worldwide, but we cannot allow the US to act arbitrarily in the West Pacific, especially in China's coastal waters, to harm China's interests. China's determination is also unwavering, and China's development and increasing military expenditure will be sufficient to support our will.

China will not seek to build a nuclear arsenal as large as that of the US, but our nuclear power building will continue to advance to consolidate sufficient and effective nuclear deterrence, especially deterrence against the US. We are convinced that we can achieve this more easily and realistically than the US' attempt to intimidate China by further strengthening nuclear power.

The US' more than $700 billion defense budget is a super show for itself and its allies. It aims at intimidating other countries, but it is only useless facing major powers like China and Russia. Even if the US doubles its defense budget, it cannot form a strategic repressive force against China and Russia as it imagines. Beijing and Moscow's capability of resolutely resisting the US in terms of their core interests will only be more sufficient.

The big bubble of the US military expenditure will eventually burst. It cannot be a compensation for other declines in US competitiveness for long. Time will prove this.


https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224782.shtml

No matter which way I read this, it comes out as a threat of an arms race (especially in the nuclear deterrence aena), one which will cause the USA to eat itself economically and financially, and die.

Quote:

China-Russia ties assure global strategic balance: Global Times editorial
By Global Times Published: May 26, 2021 12:38 AM

Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, kicked off his visit to Moscow. Yang on Tuesday met Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, for the 16th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation. The West has paid close attention to this high-level meeting between China and Russia, and connects the recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the summit on June 16 between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to this meeting, trying to figure out the subtle influence between the two groups of relations.

In our view, those speculations are just over-thinking. The China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era is stable, and assured and sees no restricted area or upper limit. The relationship between China and Russia is not only at its best, but has also reached the highest level of equal strategic cooperation between major countries in the world. No plot by any force can weaken the current China-Russian relations.

China and Russia have become strategically closer because the US and its main allies' suppression of the two countries. However, the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era is way much stronger than such temporary geopolitical dynamics. It has transformed into the cornerstone of both countries' national strategies after 20 years of continuous accumulation and consolidation. The back-to-back strategic reliance of China and Russia, as well as their intertwined interests, are becoming so increasingly valuable that no equivalent in the world can be exchanged for it.

As a country that pursues hegemony, the US sees China and Russia as its biggest obstacles. For strategic considerations, its process of easing relations with the two countries is slow, ineffective and unsustainable. It is what Beijing and Moscow have learned about so many times. The US will not allow China to grow stronger, while it will continue to suppress Russia in regions where the latter traditionally has influence. It still will see Russia's military power as a major concern. But no kind of improvement of relations will make Beijing and Moscow drop their guard against Washington's attempts to drive a wedge between China and Russia.

China and Russia will not forge an alliance, but their mutual support will be strong. The strategic coordination between the two countries has penetrated into all aspects of international politics. The approach of the two countries is not for the purpose of challenging any other country. But if the US and its allies pile more pressure than normal on either China or Russia, they will definitely witness that the other country is standing with the oppressed country. And the heavier the pressure, the more steadfast the support from the other country will be.

Don't speculate as to what extent the firm relationship between China and Russia will deepen and how long it will last. And don't need to waste effort to mull a "tool with special effects" that can drive a wedge between China and Russia. China and Russia have negotiated to resolve all territorial issues. The economies of the two countries are highly complementary. The potential for their official and non-governmental collaboration is limitless. Furthermore, the bilateral strategic cooperation has proven to be very helpful in strengthening each other's status in dealing with the US and the West.

The alliance between the US and the West is maintained by the US with its power. Once the US' strength wanes, their alliance may be loosened. In the era when globalization makes state-to-state relations go far beyond mere geopolitics, in the long run, it will be difficult for the US and the West to maintain their solid alliance. The greatest value of China-Russia relations is equality and mutual benefit. Being partners but not pursuing alignment will create not only flexibility, but also resilience. Such values and principles will prove to be more vital than the hegemonic alliance system.

When China and Russia stand with each other, any hegemony will immediately show a certain guilty conscience. Yes, the China-Russia ties are the reliable guarantee of the global strategic balance. All countries in the world, including the US' allies, have directly or indirectly benefited from the balance achieved by China and Russia. As the "tyrant," the US will have more scruples and be forced to "be nice" to some small and weak countries.

The comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia for a new era not only belongs to the two countries, but also all human beings. The US' aggressive alliances with its main allies are out of step with the 21st-century zeitgeist. And they need to reflect on themselves.


https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224483.shtml

I read this as a warning to the USA not to pursue splitting Russia from China during the upcoming summit between Putin and Biden, because it won't work.

On the Russian side, Sergei Lavrov and Patrushev have been saying the same thing. I'll see if I can find direct quotes.

However, there is a statement that Lavrov made and one sentence in it stuck out for me. It went something like "...Despite the recent pandemic, our ties to China remain strong and secure".

Why bring up the pandemic?

I've suspected for over a year now that the pandemic was caused by an accidental leak from the Wuhan lab. Now that the M$M is asking you to do a memory-wipe and forget everything that was ever opined that this was NOT the case, and is now addressing that possibility, we can expect accusations against China from our security state/M$M combine to fly thick and fast. They may even be true.

I posted recently that if the virus DID leak from the Wuhan lab, it affected China's main partners (Russia, Iran) heavily. Russia certianly knows the truth of the matter either way, but if it was a leak it may have led to some frosty words and demands for strict assurances that this will never happen again. Howver, according to Lavrov, whatever comes out of USA's attention to the theory, whether baseless allegations or true facts, Russia stands with China and this will not be a wedge issue.



Quote:

China, Russia mapmakers chart post-unilateral order

https://asiatimes.com/2021/05/china-russia-mapmakers-chart-post-unilat
eral-order
/

Quote:

Sitrep: Here Comes China: Buried lies & betrayals – Viruses, Nukes – and a Plasma sun

http://thesaker.is/sitrep-here-comes-china-buried-lies-betrayals-virus
es-nukes-and-a-plasma-sun
/

This article says that the USA has long-considered using nukes on Taiwan (as revealed by Daniel Ellsberg) which explains why China wants to up its nuclear arsenal. A second section details America's use of bioweapons in the past and hints at a counter-accusation that SARS-CoV2 is a USA bioweapon.




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

THUGR posts about Putin so much, he must be in love.

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