Hope you sold your house 2 months ago if you wanted to... by 6IXSTRINGJACK

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Hope you sold your house 2 months ago if you wanted to...

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, June 16, 2022 21:54
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VIEWED: 1144
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Wednesday, June 15, 2022 8:20 PM

That bubble is about to burst.

https://www.ft.com/content/4ee276cf-8a5d-4aea-88bc-0c7c34bf96fc?segmen
tId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

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Wednesday, June 15, 2022 10:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Alas, behind a subscription wall. I used to have a login for FT but I've since forgotten it.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Wednesday, June 15, 2022 11:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Strange. I was able to view it without a subscription.

Oh well... There's a way around subscriptions and pay walls. Just archive it.

https://archive.ph/iDphf

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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Thursday, June 16, 2022 1:34 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Ok thanks. I knew about the 0 75pct increase but not about the anticipated future increases.

Stocks, bonds, and real estate should all fall.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Thursday, June 16, 2022 6:57 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Also, I can't imagine that anticipated interest rate reducing inflation.

Inflation is caused by "too much money chasing too few goods". But most Americans in general don't have "too much money". The problem is self-inflected cutoff of commodities from sanctions against Russia.

Can you imagine what would happen to inflation if the USA decided to go to war with China? Not only would the west be cut off from cheap Russian commodities, we'd be cut off from cheap Chinese manfactured goods. Which is why, while I can imagine Biden* making a lot of noise about China (to distract from the Ukraine clusterfuck, he'd never send aircraft carriers to Taiwan. But then, I never thought the west would deny itself Russian oil and gas, either...)

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Thursday, June 16, 2022 8:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I'd really love to know who's behind the Alzheimer's curtain.

Yanno... If they're even American(s).

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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Thursday, June 16, 2022 9:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I should say that, personally, I believe that raising the interest rates is a good thing for America and Americans. It should have been done a LONG time ago though and at a much, much slower pace.

Long term, it will be good for us. Short term, it's going to be very, very bad. Expect negative growth for Q2 of the year which officially puts us in a recession. That's the best-case scenario for us right now. It very well might be a lot worse for us than that given all the other spinning plates that have been crashing down all around us.

I have plenty of posts in my post history here regarding rates and mortgages. I was predicting a hard crash in house prices years before it happened in the late 2000's. It happened, but not the reason I predicted that it would happen. I figured that once rates went back up that nobody was going to be paying $300k for a house when they were paying 10, 15 or 20%+ interest on it. But the rates never did go back up.

People who tell you that buying a house is a great investment are idiots and/or they don't have good memory. Unless you're buying it with cash and you've gotten yourself in a situation where you make money every month by not having a rent or mortgage and aren't paying interest, or unless you're extremely good at market timing, it's not a money maker in the long term.

Best case scenario when buying a house is that your investment keeps up with inflation over time. But if you bought when prices were through the roof and are left holding the bag now, expect decades of making payments on it while being underwater on the mortgage.

I paid 1/3rd of what my house was worth by taking advantage of the market timing and remaining in an apartment until the last bubble burst.

Anybody sitting on any large amount of money might want to start liquefying what they can to have it ready to pounce on somebody else's bad financial decisions when we've got foreclosures all over the country.

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Falsus in unum, falsus in omnibus

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Thursday, June 16, 2022 5:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

The real estate market, like the stock market, runs on extremely long cycles... 15 years, or more... and it's very interest rate-policy driven. You're right-
IF the interest rate increases are high enough to wring out the marginal speculators, that will be the time to buy.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE someone poor - William Blake

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Thursday, June 16, 2022 9:54 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
The real estate market, like the stock market, runs on extremely long cycles... 15 years, or more... and it's very interest rate-policy driven. You're right-
IF the interest rate increases are high enough to wring out the marginal speculators, that will be the time to buy.

It will happen before the rates wring out the marginal speculators.

A HUGE amount of foreclosures are coming down the pike, and soon.

The difference this time and back in 2008 is that interest rates are also going to be a lot higher when it happens.

Great news for Blackrock and Vanguard who can scoop tens of thousands of them up on the cheap for cash. Not so great for individual investors.

Part of the great reset is nearly everyone renting houses from somebody else. Living in California, I bet you already feel that way even though you technically own it.

This won't happen overnight. It might take a generation or two to get to near 100% of the population, but the wheels are turning.

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