REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Stimulus added jobs -- but not enough

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Friday, September 9, 2011 07:17
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Thursday, September 8, 2011 1:18 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Does anyone reeeely believe the previous stimulus would have passed AT ALL if it HAD been big enough? If you do, I have a psychiatrist you might want to see...It never would have had a snowball's chance in hell. But did it create no jobs at all, small as it was? Nah, not a one, right?

So now the Republicans are balking at the idea of infrastructure repair: "more stimulus!" they say, "and the first one didn't create even ONE single job!" Hoo-kay, let's check some facts and figures:
Quote:

Despite non-stop criticism from Republicans, the Obama administration's efforts to help the economy has created jobs.

It just hasn't created nearly enough given the damage done to the labor market by the Great Recession.

The administration's initial stimulus plan, the $787 billion package passed in February 2009, was designed to save or create about 4 million jobs.

According to some third-party estimates, the White House may have come close to hitting that target, especially if you factor in the administration's bailout of the auto industry.

But the job losses in late 2008 and early 2009 ended up being much worse than expected. A total of 3.8 million jobs were lost from December 2008 through April 2009 {Bush's inheritance to Obama}, an average of just over 750,000 a month.

By the time the job losses stopped a year after Obama took office, the Great Recession had cost the economy 8.8 million jobs, and the unemployment rate was stuck in the 9% to 10% range.

So even if estimates of more than 4 million jobs saved or created was correct, it was not nearly enough to get the job market back on track.

And many of the jobs created or saved through earlier efforts have now come to an end. Most of the public works projects, such as road repavings and bridge repairs, have been completed. Money given to states to keep teachers, fire fighters and police on the job has run out.

As the president prepares to go before Congress to ask for another $300 billion in job creation efforts, here's a summary of what we got for the past efforts:

Stimulus Round 1: The stimulus bill passed by Democrats in 2009 with almost universal Republican criticism was split into three parts: Just over $200 billion in tax cuts, about $300 billion in direct spending on projects and other aid to states, and just under $300 billion in social safety-net spending through items such as extended unemployment benefits and health insurance subsidies.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the parts of the program that got the most criticism -- actual spending on projects and aid packages -- was the most effective in creating jobs.

Tax cuts for middle income workers were less effective while tax cuts for the wealthy were deemed the least effective.


Still, the CBO estimates that at least 1.4 million jobs were created and saved by the direct spending alone, and that as many as 3.6 million jobs were produced while stimulus funds were being spent.

A separate study by Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics and an advisor to John McCain's presidential campaign, and Alan Blinder, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman and advisor to President Clinton, estimates that the stimulus act created about 2.7 million jobs. But the impact of stimulus has waned since last year.

"Stimulus is no longer playing a major role, but it was never intended to be the source of long-term growth," said Zandi. "It was supposed to fill a hole till the private sector stepped in."
And Zandi argues that the private sector is hiring again. He pointed out that businesses have added 2.4 million jobs since March 2010.

Stimulus round 2: This round includes a wide variety of actions taken between the passage of the initial stimulus act and the deal on a tax cut package at the end of 2010. Included in this catch-all category is the bailout of the U.S. auto industry, the homebuyer's tax credit, the Cash for Clunkers program, more help for the unemployed and a variety of targeted programs for small businesses.

Those programs together cost about $220 billion, though most of the $60 billion spent on the auto bailout has been returned by the automakers.

The auto bailout was clearly the most substantial and successful of these efforts. By funding General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler Group as they worked their way through bankruptcy, and providing needed cash to auto parts suppliers and finance companies, the Obama administration saved an estimated 1.5 million jobs, according to a study by the Center for Automotive Research, a Michigan think tank.

Without the bailout, GM and Chrysler could have been forced out of business. Other automakers, including Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) and even some foreign automakers with significant operations in the U.S., could have been forced to shut some operations due to failures across the supplier base.

Today all three U.S. automakers are profitable and posting improved sales, even though industrywide sales are still well below the pre-recession levels. More importantly, Detroit's Big Three are all hiring and increasing production at U.S. plants.

The other efforts were far more temporary, with a limited effect on jobs. The homebuyer's tax credit gave a temporary lift to home prices, but prices have declined further and building remains in a deep slump. The Cash for Clunkers program probably had a more lasting impact on the environment by getting old gas guzzlers off the road than giving any permanent lift to the auto industry.

Stimulus round 3: This round was essentially the tax deal passed in December following negotiations between the incoming Republican leadership in the House and the Obama administration. It was actually the most expensive stimulus effort, at an estimated cost of $858 billion. {...and what did we get for it? Did the "Job Creators" create jobs with that money?}

Most of the cost was for the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts through the end of 2012. But there was also a one-year cut on the payroll tax paid by all workers, a so-called tax holiday that President Obama now would like to see extended for another year.

There was also an extension of long-term unemployment assistance -- which Obama is also expected to ask Congress to extend.

The jobs impact is tougher to estimate. Any lift came from consumers having more to spend, which in theory leads businesses to bring on more help to meet increased demand for goods and services.

There was a bump in hiring in the immediate wake of the holiday, with businesses adding 721,000 jobs from February through April, their best three months of job growth since the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006.

But as the economy slowed and uncertainty rose this summer, hiring ground to a halt, with only 17,000 jobs added in the private sector in August. http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/08/news/economy/stimulus_jobs_record/inde
x.htm?hpt=hp_t2

Just a reminder for the next person who states flatly that it was a "total failure", that it didn't create a "single job", and that it wouldn't have worked if it hadn't been kept so small (in order to get Republican votes...). We'll be hearing that refrain over and over and over and over ad nauseum from tomorrow on, you can bet your booties. So here are facts and figures BEFORE we start hearing that shit.

Gawd forbid we should do it again to help rebuild our crumbling infrastructure! We've got these:

in several places around the Bay Area, and I'm always happy to see them. Means a few people were able to put food on the table a l ittle longer. Gawd forbid that should be the case again!

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Friday, September 9, 2011 2:09 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


It's almost funny, Niki - I'm not sure what became of it, but Rick Perry led a charge in the Texas Legislature that would ban signs like that from showing where funding for infrastructure projects was coming from (because so much of it was coming from the stimulus bill). As a consequence, he roams around Texas claiming that he's created jobs when in fact it was federal spending that created many of those jobs.

"Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservatives." - John Stuart Mill

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Friday, September 9, 2011 2:48 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Money raised by gas taxes already is directed towards repair jobs.

We're all just suppose to turn a blind eye to the fact that most of it was wasted, as is so much of our federal tax $'s, and gleefully grab our ankles as we're told we need to give MORE and MORE of our hard earned money.

The govt is like a spoiled teenager, who is given an allowance, then goes out and spends it all on entertainment, and frivolous items, trying to make new friends and be 'cool' to the other kids. Then, when they don't have enough $ to buy the things they really NEED, they come whining back to the parents and cry " I NEED MORE MONEY! AND IF YOU DON'T GIVE IT TO ME, THEN YOU DON'T LOVE ME! "

The parents, not wanting Jr to throw a temper tantrum, submit, and hand over more cash, with reminders of doing the right thing w/ the money , THIS time, so it'll never happen again.

But here's the real kicker. As we're told to conserve and forcing car companies to make more and more fuel efficient cars and trucks, our costs for NEW roads and repairs continues to go up. As we use less and less fuel, ( or are told we need to do so ) we're getting less and less total revenue from the gas tax.

Same logic that goes into taxing cigarettes, and using that $ to help fund healthcare. The fewer smokers, the less we get in taxes, so taxes must increase, which makes smoking more and more expensive ( hurting low income smokers the most ), so fewer buy cigarettes, which decreases the taxes raised, which is less $ going to healthcare...

Govt can't make up its mind. On the one hand, it wants to control how people act, but on the other, it can't survive with out taxing the living hell out of the choices we make.




" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Friday, September 9, 2011 2:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

most of it was wasted
Cites please? or are you spouting tons of right-wing manure w/o an ounce of fact, as usual?

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Friday, September 9, 2011 2:53 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:

Quote:

most of it was wasted


Cites please? or are you spouting tons of right-wing manure w/o an ounce of fact, as usual?



Govt wasting our $ needs no citation. If you've not learned that by now, then go back to living under your rock.


" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Friday, September 9, 2011 2:57 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


It's not waste, it is the fact that the gas tax is not enough to keep up the cost of maintaining roads. Then you have the fact that governments from local to federal have been ignoring the infrastructure in this country for years.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Friday, September 9, 2011 3:11 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Govt wasting our $ needs no citation.
So your statement is completely baseless, and equates to tons of manure w/o an ounce of fact? I thought so.

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Friday, September 9, 2011 3:26 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Not baseless, just not playing your game, and pretending to have no knowledge of history.




" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Friday, September 9, 2011 3:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

needs no citation...not playing your game


What "game" is THAT? Bringing FACTS to the discussion table? May as well say "The earth is flat" needs no citation. That's why I call you a flat-earther: you can't even bring up the most rudimentary evidence to support your point. In fact, you refuse. So, what have you added to the discussion?

Well... nothing.

What have you proposed that might change someone's mind?

Er... well... nothing.

Why are you even here?

Best I can figure is you're a troll. Not consciously, but a troll nonetheless. Since you're so devoid of either information or insight, you really don't belong in any discussion at all.

IF you bring facts to the table, I will respond. The moment you go baseless delusion, I'll stop.

Bye now.

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Friday, September 9, 2011 6:50 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I love it Sig. Note how he goes from claiming most of the stimulus was wasted to "GOVERNMENT wastes our money", which of course DOESN'T need a citation, we all know it. Has nothing to do with how much money the STIMULUS might have wasted; to him it needs no citation because of COURSE it must have been mostly wasted, it's what he's been told and he didn't feel any need to be told specifics, so he doesn't know any.

It's totally predictable:
Quote:

Coburn claims common sense would dictate that stimulus money is wasted or mismanaged on the 100 projects outlined in a report he co-authored with Arizona's John McCain titled "Summertime Blues." That from http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/08/03/republicans-stimulus-mone
y-spent-wasteful-projects#ixzz1XTRdJZx0

Note, Fox News. That's where his opinions come from, so of course it makes sense to him that, since government wastes money, "common sense" says MOST of it must have been wasted in the stimulus. Given his bent, he takes it for granted. I'm sure most of the Republicans did too.

That article goes on to mention several examples of stimulus money wasted on projects they think were of no value. It's always easy to find a few examples to back up such claims, but the base like Raptor goes straight to "MOST of it was wasted!" And since it didn't create as many jobs as was hoped, like McCain, their rhetoric goes straight to "It didn't create ANY jobs"
Quote:

"The stimulus package was supposed to create jobs. Unemployment was going to be 8%. That's what the president said. That's what his chief economic advisor said. That's what the Secretary of the Treasury said when they sold this debt to the American people. It does not create jobs.
Note the language slipped in there, as well as the flat statement that it DOES NOT create jobs--which doesn't mean the stimulus didn't create jobs, but that's how it's heard.

This was actually a surprisingly even-handed article by Fox. It also added that Coburn said "There is no question the stimulus bill has had a positive effect on the economy to a certain degree and... our criticism is, it could have had a far greater effect." A quite reasonable statement. And the examples cited could easily BE poor examples of how the stimulus was used. But people like Raptor read that and, tho' the examples cited add up to about $11 million out of $3.27 TRILLION, they think "it was all wasted".

See? HE didn't need cites to prove all or most of it was wasted, any more than he needs cites to show it created "no" jobs, so a) He sees no reason to provide them for you, and B) He couldn't find them if h looked. So he sidesteps into "GOVERNMENT wastes our money" then snarks that you should know that.

Works for him!


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, September 9, 2011 6:57 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Of course, one COULD point to Bush stimulus packages in 2008 and ask how many jobs THEY created, given unemployment at the end of his term (which of course righties will say was because of SOMETHING Democrats did, or the war(s) or the economy (which of course wasn't Bush's fault), whereas the wstimulus created by Obama did NOTHING. Nonetheless,
Quote:

March 2008: Bush stimulus $29 billion for Bear Stearns/JP Morgan Chase deal
May 2008: Bush stimulus $178 billion in tax rebate checks
July 2008: Bush stimulus $300 billion for distressed homeowners
July 2008: Bush stimulus $200 billion for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
September 2008: Bush stimulus $50 billion to guarantee money market funds
September 2008: Bush stimulus $25 billion to Big 3 automakers
September-November 2008: Bush stimulus $150 billion to AIG
October 2008: Bush stimulus $700 billion to banks (TARP--which of course is now blamed on Obama)

But that's another matter, and one they're not fond of debatng. I'm sure none of that was wasted, and I'msure it create lots of jobs...

Oh, and let's not forget the "stimulus" of tax cuts to the rich...how much did that cost, and how many jobs did it create, I wonder?


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, September 9, 2011 7:03 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

It's not waste, it is the fact that the gas tax is not enough to keep up the cost of maintaining roads. Then you have the fact that governments from local to federal have been ignoring the infrastructure in this country for years.
Precisely, Nick, but of course that's not important, the other sounds much better to those making the argument.


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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Friday, September 9, 2011 7:17 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Jezus, Mike, that's so transparently assinine...but not surprising. I remember all the right-wing politicians handing out those huge cardboard checks, taking credit for that which they had fought against tooth and nail, but this one is especially disgusting. I wonder if he succeeded? I sincerely hope not; the public should KNOW where the money comes from. But again, the right is so damned good at this stuff, it shouldn't surprise anyone. Talk about your hypocrisy!

I'd like to know the "basis" for his effort to take them down; what was his argument, do you know? "Wasting money" on signs, perhaps?


Hippie Operative Nikovich Nikita Nicovna Talibani,
Contracted Agent of Veritas Oilspillus, code name “Nike”,
signing off



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