Tension in the Strait of Hormuz by canttakesky

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Tension in the Strait of Hormuz

POSTED BY: CANTTAKESKY
UPDATED: Friday, December 30, 2011 20:42
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011 8:14 AM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/us-iran-us-hormuz-idUSTRE7BR
0OE20111228

http://blogs.reuters.com/fullfocus/2011/12/28/editors-choice/#a=18

I think they are painting their faces blue already.

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011 9:26 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Oh, I'm sure Jimmah Carter will say that Iran is just trying to get some respect...

* yawn *

" I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend. "

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011 10:05 AM

FREMDFIRMA

Quote:
Useless... unwise
-Spock

This is bait, and bait we ought not fall for, they HAVE the capacity to own the living shit out of fifth "fleet", if you can call those aging relics of a bygone era such a thing.

We need to put it back in our pants and stop trying to tell the rest of the world what to do before we provoke WWIII.

You ever think that maybe it's not our fucking BUSINESS, neh ?

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011 12:00 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!

Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
This is bait, and bait we ought not fall for, they HAVE the capacity to own the living shit out of fifth "fleet", if you can call those aging relics of a bygone era such a thing.

What?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011 3:50 PM

DREAMTROVE

They did this a few years ago, and we responded by very quietly withdrawing our fleet. That's how it got to the Straights of Hormuz in the first place. It used to be in the Gulf, until the Iranians kicked us out.

ETA: This is an obvious response to the oil depot bombing. If we're going to say that our bombers just strayed and were bombing stuff nearby, the Iranians are going to take the stance of "Well, if that's what happens when you're bombing nearby, how 'bout you bomb a little further away."

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 12:03 AM

FREMDFIRMA

Quote:
Originally posted by m52nickerson:
What?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/sep/06/usa.iraq
http://exiledonline.com/the-war-nerd-this-is-how-the-carriers-will-die
/all/1/

If they wanted to, Iran could fucking vaporize that fleet, and there's jack damn all we could even DO about it - not to mention China and potentially Russia would move to protect THEIR oil supply and at the very LEAST would arm them with advanced shipkillers, and probably already have.

Mind you, we knew even Iraq had the potential to, but potential didn't mean much in the face of piss-poor maintanence and other issues which made it a dead letter - cause some of the boats we sent to the persian gulf during that period were OBVIOUS bait, several were all but hulks and barely afloat, despite efforts since 1994 to remedy certain critical problems within the Navys deployment procedures.
http://www.fas.org/man/gao/gao9524.htm

Anyhows, they also wouldn't even have to fight us - all they'd have to do is cut that fleet off from fuel and in short order they'd be completely boned since even a nuke-powered carrier needs fuel for the planes which are it's primary offense and defense, and the Navy brass KNOWS this, which is why they're getting all weak in the knees about it.

Right now it's just brinkmanship and political maneuvering, but if it comes to shots-fired that fleet is GONE, minimum of 60% casualties, and american forces in general fall apart completely at less than 10% since it's all top-down and they're trained to do nothing without the brass holding their hand every little step of the way.
(In fact they tend to start losing cohesion almost immediately when cut off from radio contact.)

We've chased Brier Rabbit into the patch, is what it is, and if Iran really wanted to hammer us under, we've handed them a silver plate chance to do it with us up to our ass and overextended in imperial stupidity and trying to wage a 2nd gen war against 5th gen opposition, courtesy of the hidebound dumbfucks polishing chair seats in the pentagon.

Of course, they prolly won't actually DO anything, they're just yanking our chain to make us dance, kinda like the Duke of Wellington did to Napoloen, using threats and harrassment to force ole bony to keep his troops in battle order and wear them down without actually engaging them.

THAT, is what.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 3:29 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up

Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
If they wanted to, Iran could fucking vaporize that fleet,

So you're saying it's likely that Iran would use nuclear weapons against craft trying to support free transit of international waters.

So maybe folks are right about them not being the light of reason.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 3:39 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
If they wanted to, Iran could fucking vaporize that fleet,

So you're saying it's likely that Iran would use nuclear weapons against craft trying to support free transit of international waters.

So maybe folks are right about them not being the light of reason.

That's crazy talk. Iran doesn't have the bomb... EVERYONE knows that!

"The world is a dangerous place. Not because of the people who are evil; but because of the people who don't do anything about it." - Albert Einstein

You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot help the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves. - Someone.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 5:34 AM

FREMDFIRMA

Quote:
Originally posted by Geezer:
So you're saying it's likely that Iran would use nuclear weapons against craft trying to support free transit of international waters.

*blink*

Err, you COULD try reading the links I provide for once.

Just sayin.

-F

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 5:47 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Hello,

Frem, I'm not sure that Carriers can be considered obsolete. What this really means is that floating intercept platforms are NOT obsolete, and that the Carrier still needs a battle group in order to survive.

The advantage of having a mobile airbase is a strong one. But aircraft carriers have always been the glass cannons of fleet operations, with an entire squadron of ships devoted to maintaining their survival. I expect that we will build better escort ships with better anti-air and intercept capabilities precisely to mitigate this threat.

Of course, I don't expect we'll do that until we actually lose a carrier or two. No defense is obsolete until someone actually counters it. As your war nerd notes, Carriers have had this vulnerability since WWII. Until the enemy actually deploys the tactic that will harm them, they will continue to set sail as Kings of the Sea.

And when someone finally deploys the tactic, and makes their kills, it will suddenly be obvious to everyone what the problem is.

Fixed Fortifications? Ludicrous!

--Anthony

_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 6:50 AM

DREAMTROVE

Republicans on the board are losing my vote. It would have been a pretty obvious instant win for anyone opposing Obama, the opposition only had to fall under the "not a fascist" umbrella somewhere. I see they have cleverly failed.

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 4:22 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Anthony,

I think as a weapon of war, they're obsolete - you can't wind a land war from the air as noted in Vietnam, and most of the opponents we'd face either have no airforce worth a mention or those that do could spike a carrier pretty damn quick.

While there may still be a place for the light strike carrier perhaps, the giant nuke powered flattop is as obsolete as a freakin battleship, and a smaller, faster ship mounting tomahawks can do a lot of the same job of either, backed up by a smaller carrier type for quick insertion of troops with air cover.

That's not to say there's no place in the world for the big guys, just not in a combat role for the most part - a mobile airbase like that is also damn useful for search and rescue, disaster relief operations, pirate punting and a whole host of other uses...

Just imagine if immediately after Katrina we had a carrier move in and use its reactor to restore power to the area for critical infrastructure, generate fresh water for distribution and deploy search and rescue while using its medical facilities to triage for a hospital ship, etc etc ?
But instead we get ground troops disarming people and throwing them to the wolves, bah.

We need to look beyond strict military operations, crack open some of the minds behind this, cause the goodwill of other nations can be as effective, more effective, than an entire battlegroup, and as much conflict can be settled over a conference table as on a battlefield and cheaper too.
But no, the folks in charge of our military still think in terms of hooyah cowboy gotterdammerung field battles which are both wasteful and ineffective, they learned nothing from the battle of the somme and apparently never will, which is WHY civilian authority is supposed to be superior despite every effort by the military to end-run, ignore, or subvert that by keeping them out of the loop.
(Which, IMHO, is an act which borders on treasonous)

Anyhow, we desperately need to re-examine our entire military concept, but every time that topic is raised, such as the Millenium Challenge when Van Riper rammed it down their throats, our military brass goes straight into denial mode and does its best to crush criticism instead of taking it to heart.
Well, enemy forces are not so forgiving.

Quote:
"I am your enemy, the first one you've ever had who was smarter than you. There is no teacher but the enemy. No one but the enemy will ever tell you what the enemy is going to do. No one but the enemy will ever teach you how to destroy and conquer. Only the enemy shows you where you are weak. Only the enemy tells you when he is strong. And the rules of the game are what you can do to him and what you can stop him from doing to you. I am your enemy from now on. From now on, I am your teacher."
Mazer Rackham

Oh, and DT ?
Not to say I toldja so, but....

I did tell you so.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 4:24 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

"--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"I am your enemy, the first one you've ever had who was smarter than you. There is no teacher but the enemy. No one but the enemy will ever tell you what the enemy is going to do. No one but the enemy will ever teach you how to destroy and conquer. Only the enemy shows you where you are weak. Only the enemy tells you when he is strong. And the rules of the game are what you can do to him and what you can stop him from doing to you. I am your enemy from now on. From now on, I am your teacher."
Mazer Rackham"

Hello,

I hear they're making the movie. For real, this time.

--Anthony

_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 5:37 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyT:
I hear they're making the movie. For real, this time.

Given how awful the tripe comin outta hollywood these days is, prolly with Uwe Boll directing and M Night Shithead writing the script...
*groans*

-F

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 6:25 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up

Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Err, you COULD try reading the links I provide for once.

Just sayin.

-F

I did. The Exiledonline link you provided was talkin' about the Dong Feng 21 missle.

The one that can reliably hit a moving aircraft carrier is the DF-21D, which apparently carries at a minimum one 200 kiloton nuke, and up to 5 o6 6 MIRVed warheads up to 500 kt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21#DF-21D_.28CSS-5_Mod-4.29_Anti-ship_
ballistic_missile

So that looks like you're talkin' Iran shootin' nukes to interdict international waters. Don't think that'd go over real well with pretty much anyone.

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 6:28 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyT:
I hear they're making the movie. For real, this time.

Given how awful the tripe comin outta hollywood these days is, prolly with Uwe Boll directing and M Night Shithead writing the script...
*groans*

-F

Hello,

I liked Unbreakable. I'm one of the five people on Earth.

But Uwe Boll can light himself on fire for all I care. (Not really. Sorry for typing that. I wanted to convey a strong dislike for his pollution of the art form.)

Anyhow, it looks like they'll have a good cast at least. Here's hoping.

--Anthony

_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner

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Thursday, December 29, 2011 8:59 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyT:
I liked Unbreakable. I'm one of the five people on Earth.

So did I - doesn't mean I care for M Night Shitheel, given the soulcrushing awfulness of just about everything else he was ever involved with.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

ETA: The DF-21 and payload - that info is of course "that we know of" which given the nature of our intel people, and their inability to do the job cause they're too busy harrassing the folk they're supposed to be protecting, there's a good chance that info is way out of date, and besides which once you get the velocity into those ranges you don't even NEED a payload anymore as it becomes a microcosmic kinetic bolide.

-F

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Friday, December 30, 2011 4:41 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up

Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
ETA: The DF-21 and payload - that info is of course "that we know of" which given the nature of our intel people, and their inability to do the job cause they're too busy harrassing the folk they're supposed to be protecting, there's a good chance that info is way out of date, and besides which once you get the velocity into those ranges you don't even NEED a payload anymore as it becomes a microcosmic kinetic bolide.

-F

So you don't believe 'our intel people' about the DF-21 payloads, but you do believe them about its terminal velocity.

Okay.

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Friday, December 30, 2011 8:42 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Feh, I don't trust their word on which end the sun rises given how often they're wrong via either malice or intent, and that's only gotten worse since the former administration started selling down the river those agents who's information was factual instead of politically convenient.

Thing is, it makes no sense - at those velocities a warhead is futile, in their efforts to shovel this thing as a threat they've offered mutually exclusive information, you see.

Information obtained from other, more reliable sources indicates the velocity of the weapon is the more credible threat, and the likelyhood of someone bothering to arm a fucking kinetic weapon with a nuclear warhead hovers right around Nigerian Yellowcake in credibility, and for much the same reasons.

If our intel people weren't so pathetically eager to whip up the booga-booga to justify their own unnecessary existence, they'd have realized this.

Above all things, I loathe incompetence.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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