Louisiana in Perspective by NewOldBrownCoat

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Louisiana in Perspective

POSTED BY: NEWOLDBROWNCOAT
UPDATED: Saturday, March 24, 2012 19:38
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Friday, March 23, 2012 5:23 AM

found these 2 quotes over on MSN Slate. They put the Louisiana primary in perspective FOR ME. Thought it might be useful to post 'em as a "best theoretical prediction" of the last minute status, before the Louisiana primary actually happens and the spin begins.

Quote:

A new Rasmussen Reports poll out Thursday shows Santorum with 12-point lead on Romney, 43 percent to 31. Newt Gingrich, who has struggled to win over southern voters outside of South Carolina and his home state of Georgia, sits in third place with 16 percent, 27 points behind Santorum and 15 back of Romney. Ron Paul is in fourth with 5 percent.

Only 20 of Louisiana's 46 delegates are up for grabs on Saturday — the rest are awarded at a June convention. The ones decided on Saturday will be divvied up among all candidates who get 25 percent or more of the statewide vote. If the results are in line with the polls, Santorum will get nine delegates, Romney will get six, and five will remain uncommitted. Santorum needs for Romney to fall short, and land "in a big cluster" underneath the 25-percent threshold. "Failing that, [Santorum] doesn't take much out of Louisiana."

Looks, to me, like even a "big win" for Santorum will only gain him a net of 3 delegates against Romney, when he's running behind by almost 2 to 1.

Main thing, here it is, this is what the MSM is predicting , on the record. I neither approve nor disapprove, argue or defend. Let's see how it compares with the final result

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Friday, March 23, 2012 5:29 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Should be interesting, if only mildly. As you said, the end result isn't all that important. I guess what it SAYS will be more important than what it DOES, eh?

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Friday, March 23, 2012 5:46 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Hello,

I hope the Santorum supporters listen to his advice and vote Democrat when he loses.

Not because I'm pleased with the Democratic candidate, (I rather dislike him) but because the Republican ones that have a chance of winning put just a little more fright in me.

--Anthony

_______________________________________________

Note to self: Mr. Raptor believes that women who want to control their reproductive processes are sluts.

Reference thread: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.asp?b=18&t=51196

Never forget what this man is. You keep forgiving him his trespasses and speak to him as though he is a reasonable human being. You keep forgetting the things he's advocated. If you respond to this man again, you are being foolish.

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Saturday, March 24, 2012 4:39 PM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Early results in., 7:15 California time. CNN says updated 7:01 PM Eastern.

Santorum 35,000 votes, 49 %
Romney 19,000 votes, 26 %
Gingrich 12,000 votes, 17 %
PAul 4,000 votes, 6%

Notes: 20 % reporting. I rounded the vote totals to the nearest 1000.

CNN isn't saying anything about delegates. If it's truly proportional,
Santorum, 10
Romney 5
Gingrich 3
Paul 1

I saw something about a candidate having to get 25 % to get any delegates
That would free up 4, figure 3 for Santorum, 1 for Romney. Which would make
Santorum 13
Romney 6,
or a net gain of 7 delegates for Santorum. Which leaves him still behind, by a ratio of 2 to 1.

CNN is saying that the story will be: Romney can't win the nomination in the South, and since he can't win the South, they ( Southern Republicans) won't vote for him in November.

Is that true? SO should he QUIT now? Or will Southern R's hold their noses and vote for him in Nov? Or will they vote for Obama if they can't get Santorum, as Mr. S suggested? Or will they just stay home?

'Course it's early in the night, and numbers may change as more results come in, but it looks like Santorum did a little better than the poll Thursday predicted, Romney and Gingrich a little worse. ( E T A-- Gingrich about as predicted, Sorry.)

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Saturday, March 24, 2012 7:38 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

let's see how this works

Rick Santorum 91,305 49%
Mitt Romney 49,749 26.7%
Newt Gingrich 29,655 15.9%
Ron Paul 11,460 6.1%
Other 4,208 2.3%
Source: AP

WASHINGTON — Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum picked up at least nine convention delegates by winning Louisiana's Republican presidential primary Saturday.

Santorum's haul was limited by Louisiana's rules for awarding delegates. The state has a total of 46 delegates to the party's national convention, but only 20 were at stake in the primary, and they were awarded in proportion to the statewide vote. Candidates had to get more than 25 percent of the vote to qualify.

An additional 23 delegates will be selected at the Louisiana state GOP convention in June. The final three delegates are Louisiana's members of the Republican National Committee.

With 84 percent of precincts reporting, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was getting 26 percent of the vote. If Romney's share of the vote stays above 25 percent, he would get at least five delegates, but it was still too close to call.

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