REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

And now for something different (Mideast and beyond)

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, August 13, 2015 14:52
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Thursday, August 13, 2015 1:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Looking at the political and economic landscape, the impression that I get is that things are moving in new and unanticipated directions.

When China opened the AIIB (Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank) many western nations signed on, despite the USA's strenuous efforts to keep them out. This includes Australia, Austria, Germany, Israel, UK, and Switzerland. The only large-GDP nations NOT in the AIIB are the USA, Japan, and Canada. Taiwan was specifically rejected by China.

Crossing the AIIB list with the Trans Pacific Pacific Partnership list, I see that some nations (Vietnam negotiating, Brunei original signatory, New Zealand original signatory, Singapore original signatory, Australia negotiating, Malaysia negotiating, Philippines announced interest, Thailand announced interest) are on both.

Since China was specifically uninvited to the TPP, and the TPP is America's attempt to block China out of regional trade by forming an anti-China "free trade" pact, I wonder how many nations that are attempting to do both will survive on both lists. None, is my guess.

Even further, the financial crisis is still reverberating through the world economies. There is significant lack of demand for products (because of the relative impoverishment of people around the world) which means a significant lack of demand for commodities (ore, chemicals, oil etc) as well. Exporting nations - China, Brazil, Germany etc - are finding their markets drying up. IMPORTING nations are also having difficulty as their currencies are being devalued ... except the USA, which can afford to maintain a multi-decades-long, vast negative trade balance with impunity, on the basis of the reserve-currency "petrodollar". (All of this goes back to "Neither a borrower nor a lender be". The best trade balance is a neutral one.)

Which brings me to the mideast.

The deal with Iran is, on the one hand, much ado about nothing. The USA agreed to lift sanctions in return for stopping an Iranian nuclear weapons program that didn't really exist. Not a great deal, but not a terrible one, since mideast stability and USA security was never threatened by Iran's apocryphal nuclear program.

On the other hand, the deal is symbolic of SOMETHING, and revealing of SOMETHING. Obama is apparently willing to piss off/ cross swords with both Israel and Saudi Arabia, our historic Mideast "partners", and he's willing to do this with urgency and energy. So, what's the urgent-urgency of this deal?

It's clear that the USA is ALSO willing to cross swords with Saudi Arabia over al Nusra jiahdis. USA has put them on the target list for bombing, and Saudi Arabia has announced its withdrawal of al Nusra from the projected Syrian "safety zone" ... and sideways revealed its support of jihadist groups (but anyone who's been paying attention to what I write should have figured that out by now. Yes, Saudi Arabia fosters jihadism in the ME, and has a been funding and arming al Qaida/ al Nusra and other Sunni jihadist groups for decades.)

On the other had, the USA is cozying up to Turkey, which has probably done more to foster ISIS than any other nation. Despite the fact that Turkey is a NATO member.

So, what is the urgency behind making a deal with Iran? It's clearly not about stopping a program that never really existed in the first place.

I've read many interpretations from many perspectives about what's "really" going on in the mideast, from Pepe Escobar's interpretation of the mideast as "pipelinistan" to US State Dept pronouncements to partisan Sunni and Shia opinions, but I have to say that none of them have yet made any sense to me!

So, if anyone has any thoughts/ is willing to discuss the topic, I'd be interested.




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Thursday, August 13, 2015 2:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


There've been a lot of meetings in the ME about Syria - USA-Iran, Iran-Russia-Syria, Russia-Saudi. Just a huge amount of meetings, here there and elsewhere. The Russia-Saudi meeting ended in failure, when Saudi Arabia once again reiterated its goal of removing Assad.

In a joint press conference with the Saudis, Sergei Lavrov was hear to mutter something under his breath, which has been interpreted as "fucking morons". From ZeroHedge

"F$$king Morons": Russia's Lavrov Drops F-Bomb At Saudi-Syria Press Conference

Quote:

Earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir to discuss options for Syria’s future. Here’s the context:

Realizing that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s badly depleted forces are likely to face defeat sooner or later, either at the hands of the various militants "freedom fighters" vying for control of the country or else at the hands of the US military which we imagine could "accidentally" end up engaging Assad’s forces directly once the air campaign against ISIS picks up, Moscow has gone back and forth between suggesting that it’s willing to negotiate for an "alternative" to Assad and saying that Russia is willing to lend military support to Damascus if it means helping to eradicate "terrorists." Again we see that both sides are prepared to use ISIS as an excuse to turn what has so far been a thinly-veiled proxy war into an actual confrontation between East and West and although Russia may be willing to "go there" if all options are exhausted, the economic realities of collapsing crude and Western sanctions are all too real which is presumably why the Kremlin entertained Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss next steps for Syria. In the end, it all came down to the fate of Assad and both sides are apparently willing to stand their ground - for now.

In short, the Saudis see "no place for Assad in the future of Syria" while Russia isn’t quite ready to throw in the towel on the embattled strongman. After the meeting, the two diplomats held a joint press conference.

For those interested in more detail on the "friggin' mess" that served as the backdrop for Tuesday’s presser, see here, but the clip shown below - in which Lavrov calls the Saudis "fucking morons" under his breath at 41:05 in - should suffice as the Cliff’s Notes version.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-13/fking-morons-russias-lavrov-d
rops-f-bomb-saudi-syria-press-conference


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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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