REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Senate Race 2020

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Friday, February 21, 2020 15:30
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Tuesday, July 2, 2019 5:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Next year the General Election will include Class 2 of the 3 Senate groups.
Including Mr. Elaine Chao.

The following Senate Seats of Class 2 have not changed Party in 2008 (General Election) or 2014 (mid-terms):
Democrat (6):
DE, IL, MA, MI, NJ, RI.
Republican (13):
AL (Sessions), GA, ID, KS, KY (McConnell), ME, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, WY.

And the rest had some Party flippings (14):

ST 07 09 13 15

AK R-->D D-->R
AR D Rel D-->R
CO R-->D D-->R
IA D Rel D-->R
LA D Rel D-->R

MN R-->D D Rel
MT D Rel D-->R
NH R-->D D Rel
NM R-->D D Rel
NC R-->D D-->R

OR R-->D D Rel
SD D Rel D-->R
VA R-->D D Rel
WV D Rel D-->R

HI had a Special Election on 2014, shouldn't have one in 2020.

AZ is currently the only Special Election for this cycle.


That Seat for MN was stolen by Franken, which he no longer has.
That AL Seat was Sessions, which he gave up to pretend to be AG. And it is D now, part of the 45 Dem minority in the Senate.
And Mr. Elaine Chow has that KY Seat, so we could always hope he gets Primaried.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2019 6:26 PM

JONGSSTRAW


I hope McConnell gets beat in a primary. His time is up.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2019 6:38 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


THANKS! for the info.

According to wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections , it looks like all but 2 incumbent R senate seats are most likely reelected w/ 2 tossup, and all but 1 D are most likely reelected, with the 1 tossup. In general the D seats more often fall into the 'likely' or 'lean' categories than the 'safe' one.

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Wednesday, July 3, 2019 6:06 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
THANKS! for the info.

According to wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections , it looks like all but 2 incumbent R senate seats are most likely reelected w/ 2 tossup, and all but 1 D are most likely reelected, with the 1 tossup. In general the D seats more often fall into the 'likely' or 'lean' categories than the 'safe' one.

In the past half-century, I've seen that in threshhold States, General Elections tend to favor Democrats (higher turnout of the Low-Information Voter), and Mid-terms tend to favor Conservatives (lower turnout of Low-Information Voters).

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Wednesday, July 10, 2019 5:03 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
THANKS! for the info.

According to wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections , it looks like all but 2 incumbent R senate seats are most likely reelected w/ 2 tossup, and all but 1 D are most likely reelected, with the 1 tossup. In general the D seats more often fall into the 'likely' or 'lean' categories than the 'safe' one.

GOP Senators retiring are for WY, TN, KS.
None of those Seats changed Party in the past 2 Elections (GOP since at least 2003).

Dem Senator retiring is from NM.
That Seat was GOP in 2008.


AL has been R, is now D, and is leaning R for a flip.
AZ and CO are considered tossup.
MI is a lean D.
ME is a lean R, but we could hope she gets Primaried. As a RINO in a State that leans D, this might need to be accepted.
NC is a lean R, GA is lean/likely R.


AL is the only one currently suggesting a lean opposite of the Incumbent, and he won with 50.0% last time.

AK (R) garnered 48.0% in the last Election.
CO (R) had 48.2%.
NC (R) had 48.8%.
SD (R) had 50.4%.

VA (D) had 49.1%.
NH (D) had 51.5%.

Currently, Senate has 53 GOP. With Trump plowing through the Election on a wave of Illegal Alien backlash, AL, NH, and VA could flip, making the Senate 56 GOP.
If Dems could hold those, and flip AK, CO, NC, SD, then they could have 49 Dem, plus 2 Independents for a Majority Caucus.

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Tuesday, July 23, 2019 3:11 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
THANKS! for the info.

According to wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections , it looks like all but 2 incumbent R senate seats are most likely reelected w/ 2 tossup, and all but 1 D are most likely reelected, with the 1 tossup. In general the D seats more often fall into the 'likely' or 'lean' categories than the 'safe' one.

I had thought that I asked if the information I found had matched what you had found, but upon review it looks like I failed to make that query.

Is the assessment I drew out so far seem plausible?

I often use uselectionatlas.com as a reference for data (horrible track record for predictions), but it does not seem to be covering Senate 2020 yet.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2019 5:59 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Senator Johnny Isakson, GA-R has announced retirement, due to health issues from Parkinson's.

Apparently this will be filled during the General Election of 2020, so then both GA Senators will be up for Election at the same time.

He held the seat since 2004.

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Thursday, September 5, 2019 8:07 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I heard Gillibrand is running, following her failed President bid.

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Saturday, January 4, 2020 3:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Sounds like Cosy Lewandowski might be running for Senate, I think in NH.

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Wednesday, January 29, 2020 5:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I hear the newest polls show Mitt Romney will lose his Senate race in Utah, particularly if he keeps his Anti-Trump stance in the Fake Impeachment Trial.

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Wednesday, January 29, 2020 7:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I hear the newest polls show Mitt Romney will lose his Senate race in Utah, particularly if he keeps his Anti-Trump stance in the Fake Impeachment Trial.




Good. Fuck Romney. Another Neo-Con bites the dust.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, February 1, 2020 2:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I hear the newest polls show Mitt Romney will lose his Senate race in Utah, particularly if he keeps his Anti-Trump stance in the Fake Impeachment Trial.

Well, along with Susan Collins, Mittens Romney voted against The Constitution, and also, apparently, against his re-election to Senate. Maybe he'll run for President.

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Wednesday, February 5, 2020 8:09 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I hear the newest polls show Mitt Romney will lose his Senate race in Utah, particularly if he keeps his Anti-Trump stance in the Fake Impeachment Trial.

Well, along with Susan Collins, Mittens Romney voted against The Constitution, and also, apparently, against his re-election to Senate. Maybe he'll run for President.

And now he doubled down. Days after voting that he needed more witnesses to convince him of guilt, he not claims he has enough. And he is voting for his conscience, not for his State. All because Trump accurately called him a Loser.

I fear that his Schiff-Shumer-Sham Show from Pelosi may have bolstered McConnell in his re-election bid. Dang.

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Wednesday, February 5, 2020 8:38 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


But I do fear that voting tricks will tilt the board in the favor of Democraps.

The tricks I envision should not greatly have effect in House races. But could have effect on President, Governors, other statewide races.

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Thursday, February 6, 2020 3:02 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I hear the newest polls show Mitt Romney will lose his Senate race in Utah, particularly if he keeps his Anti-Trump stance in the Fake Impeachment Trial.

Well, along with Susan Collins, Mittens Romney voted against The Constitution, and also, apparently, against his re-election to Senate. Maybe he'll run for President.

And now he doubled down. Days after voting that he needed more witnesses to convince him of guilt, he not claims he has enough. And he is voting for his conscience, not for his State. All because Trump accurately called him a Loser.

I fear that his Schiff-Shumer-Sham Show from Pelosi may have bolstered McConnell in his re-election bid. Dang.

Maybe Mittens won't need to wait until November.


https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/2/5/21125200/mitt-romney-trump-impea
chment-acquit-senate-vote-convict-utah-legislature-recall


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Thursday, February 6, 2020 5:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Good.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, February 6, 2020 8:11 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


In FL in the past year, over 10,000 more voters have registered as Democrats.


In the same period, over 42,600 more voters have registered as Republicans.

Dems still hold a lead, but it is the thinnest since the state started keeping track in 1974.

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Friday, February 21, 2020 3:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I guess I failed to mention how the current Senators are affiliated.

Dem (12)
OR
MN
MI
IL
NM
AL
VA
DE
NJ
RI
MA
VT


GOP (22/23)
AK
ID
MT
WY
AZ
CO
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
IA
AR
LA
MS
GA
GA-SE
SC
NC
TN
KY
WV
ME

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