REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Closer and closer to major-powers war

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, September 6, 2018 11:50
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Thursday, November 27, 2014 12:24 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

NATO To Deploy Tanks In Eastern Europe Shortly After VP Of Europarliament Says Ukraine-Russia War Imminent
Of course, we know that a "Ukraine-Russia" war - if it occurs- will not remain Ukraine V Russia, but rather NATO v Russia.

Quote:

Just when global financial markets had shrugged off Ukraine as yet another 'storm in a teacup', it appears events are escalating rapidly once again. This morning saw European Parliament's Vice President Saryusz-Wolski warn "Russia's pressure on Ukraine is mounting high, further war imminent," to which Ukraine's President Poroshenko rapidly responded (via Twitter) rather ominously that a "third world war does not scare us," having noted earlier than Ukraine needs to achieve NATO membership.

This then prompted NATO's top military commander to warn, he is "very concerned" that Russia's military build-up in the annexed Crimean region could be used as a launchpad for attacks across the whole Black Sea region; leaving the alliance confirming that NATO plans to deploy tanks in Eastern Europe. The European Parliament Vice President Jacek Saryusz-Wolski tweeted (rather to the point)...

To which Ukrainian President Poroshenko replied -Roughly translated meaning

"A 3rd World War does not scare... in fact, nobody is going to start it," adding
*UKRAINE NEEDS TO ACHIEVE NATO MEMBERSHIP CRITERIA .... UKRAINE TO HAVE UKRAINIAN AS SOLE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE

However, it seems the sabre-rattling continues... As Al-Jazeera reports, NATO's top military commander [Commander Breedlove] has said he is "very concerned" that Russia's military build-up in the annexed Crimean region could be used as a launchpad for attacks across the whole Black Sea region.

[REALLY??? Do you know that there are over 67,000 thousand American troops in the EU, and over 1 million NATO troops? The idea of Russia launching an offensive war in Europe is preposterous, and so is Breedlove.]

US General Philip Breedlove's comments late on Wednesday came amid fears in Kiev that Russian-backed rebels will try to grab more land in eastern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March.

"We are very concerned with the militarisation of Crimea," Breedlove said, following meetings with Ukraine's top political and military leaders in Kiev.
"The capabilities that are being installed in Crimea ... are able to exert influence over the entire Black Sea," he said, highlighting the influx of cruise missiles and surface-to-air rockets.


Russia's Defence Ministry said Wednesday that it had deployed a batch of 14 military jets to Crimea as part of a squadron of 30 that will be stationed on the peninsula.

Also on Wednesday, an OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in eastern Ukraine was reportedly attacked with rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft ammunition.

"These shots appear to have been fired from separatist-controlled territory," the US Department of State said n a statement on Thursday.
"Any attacks on, or threats to, OSCE monitors or equipment are unacceptable. We call on all parties to refrain from any actions that endanger the safety of the OSCE mission in Ukraine."


Which explains the decision to deploy tanks...And the Russians to respond...

The United States is pushing Ukraine into the abyss of a civil war which has claimed thousands of lives, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told Asian counterparts on Thursday.
“American and NATO military forces are moving closer to Russia’s threshold and the US has intensified activity in former Soviet republics," he told an inaugural meeting of the South and South-East Asian Nations Defense Chiefs’ Dialogue in Colombo, Sri Lanka’s capital.


It appears the situation is anything but contained...


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-27/nato-deploy-tanks-eastern-eur
ope-shortly-after-vp-europarliament-says-ukraine-russia



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Thursday, November 27, 2014 12:45 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


More preparations for war?

Quote:

Kiev is enforcing an economic blockade on eastern Ukraine, where banks are closed and cash machines and credit cards aren’t working. Disrupted social payments to the elderly have become the most acute issue.

Only a handful of cash machines are still functional in the breakaway parts of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions, after local banks received an order from Ukraine’s central bank earlier this week to “suspend” operations.

This follows a controversial decree signed by Ukrainian President Petro Porishenko on November 16 that is now coming into effect. Kiev is cutting economic ties with rebel-held areas by freezing bank accounts and stopping social payments, including pensions.



And, more importantly

Quote:

Kiev has suspended the protection of human rights and ordered the withdrawal of its institutions from areas controlled by local militia in the nation's east. Rebels have branded the decree, which hits the population on winter’s eve, an ‘act of genocide.'

The move was prepared by the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council last week and enacted by a presidential decree signed on Friday. It has yet to be ratified by the newly-elected parliament, but the decree explicitly says that this procedure must be expedited – so there is little doubt that the new governing coalition will adopt it next week.

Arguably the most controversial part of the decree is the suspension of the European Convention on Human Rights in rebel-held areas. The convention, which guarantees basic human rights and fundamental freedoms in Europe, has a provision which allows some of its articles to be derogated by a signatory “in time of war or other public emergency threatening the life of the nation.”


http://rt.com/news/205919-ukraine-bockade-rebel-areas/



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns. And Kiev? Well, Kiev isn't even trying to build a nation.

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Thursday, November 27, 2014 1:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said 100 percent of Ukrainians opposed the idea of federalization, fighting against advice Ukraine adopt a federal form of government that would give its individual regions more authority. Ukrainian officials say it’s merely a method of making its eastern regions more vulnerable to Russian influence.

http://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-conflict-update-ukrainians-oppose-feder
alization-while-russians-support-1730261


So, by definition, those who are for federalization aren't Ukrainians? Is that what he's saying?

I've been thinking more and more that what we're seeing is a set-piece: the parts have been pre-determined, nothing that is said publicly will make a difference. What I can't see is the end goal.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Thursday, November 27, 2014 2:01 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Well damn.

Can't we all just get along ?





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Thursday, November 27, 2014 2:55 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I've been thinking more and more that what we're seeing is a set-piece: the parts have been pre-determined, nothing that is said publicly will make a difference. What I can't see is the end goal.



You'd have to think like a neo-CON to see it, and they're some truly crazy-ass bitches.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Thursday, November 27, 2014 3:19 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Well damn.
Can't we all just get along ?




Boy, I wish!


Hubby says that I tend to err on the side of optimism (and if you think I'm pessimistic, you should see him!). And there's always a bit of geopolitical huffing and puffing going on... posturing, repositioning, military exercises etc. but these actions look like real war preparations.

It seems to me there are several slow-motion processes going on, which are obfuscated by public statements and meaningless gestures.

The first is the western commitment to expanding NATO and encircling Russia. Since the fall of the Berlin wall, something like 13 nations have been added to NATO. The Ukraine "color revolution" fostered by the USA is just one more step in the process. The plan is to encircle Russia and then pivot to the east. USA admin wants total full spectrum dominance.

The second is the resurgence of the Russian economy and military. The Russians were not likely to just give up Sevastopol, which is their major access to the Mediterranean. And they probably don't want eastern and southern Ukraine, which would represent a huge money pit - geostrategically it would be far better for them to have a neutral united Ukraine than a divided one, but with Kiev displacing so many people, destroying infrastructure, cutting off pension payments and access to banking, Russia may need to provide alternate services to eastern and southern Ukraine on a purely humanitarian basis, which would provide yet another pretext for Kiev to declare war.

Also, Kiev has massed its troops forward to the dividing line AFTER the cease-fire was negotiated, with responding troop movements on the other side.

The third is the polarization of Europe. Some nations are swinging towards Russia (Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia, possibly Bulgaria), others are openly pushing for aggressive anti-Russian militarization (Poland and the Baltic states). After Merkel visited Washington, where her role was explained to her by Obama, Germany swung towards the militarization camp (no matter what German FM Steinmeier says). This really showed up in the G20 meeting.

Russia, meanwhile, is isolating itself as much as possible from trade and economic fallout by reaching out to China, Brazil, and other nations with trade deals and banking systems, so there is worldwide polarization happening as well. Many of the nations formerly in the western camp are being wooed by Russia and China, this seems to include Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Alliances have become more fluid, it's almost impossible to tell who is on whose "side" now.

All of the pieces are being put in place for a military showdown. Overall, I believe the west is committed to war in the Ukraine.... that there will be statements and meetings and reassurances between Russia and the west, but that will occur only while troops and materiel are built up in Ukraine, which is occurring even as we "speak" with supplies, commitments, loans, training, and mercs from NATO members- the USA, France, Italy, Canada, and the Baltic states. Biden will be discussing providing lethal military aid to Kiev soon.

Now, possibly what will happen (and this is my hope) that once the tanks and troops and air forces are bolstered and re-arranged on both sides, this will all settle down to "watchful waiting" ... "frozen conflict" status. It may be that Kiev accepts de facto annexation of eastern and southern Ukraine by Russia, and contents itself with an enhanced military.

But there are two important indicators of immediately impending out-and-out war: the Russian cutoff of natural gas to Europe, and the acceptance of Ukraine into NATO.



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, November 28, 2014 6:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh, BTW- if there is a war in Ukraine, the west won't start it until spring.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, November 28, 2014 8:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


WAR: a state of armed conflict between different nations or states or different groups within a nation or state.

ETA- But thanks for playing "Deflect the Topic!" You win the prize for completely avoiding the subject!

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, November 29, 2014 1:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Ukraine: EU Imposes Sanctions On Rebel Election Organizers

Quote:

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has imposed sanctions on the organizers of rebel elections in eastern Ukraine this month, the bloc said on Saturday, hitting the separatists and their organizations with asset freezes and travel bans.

As reported by Reuters on Thursday, EU governments decided to add 13 Ukrainian separatists and five of their political organizations to a sanctions list that already covers 119 people and 23 entities.

Rebels in eastern Ukraine held their elections on Nov. 2, arguing that the vote was the next step after local referendums in May calling for independence from Ukraine.

The United States and European Union have denounced the vote as illegitimate, but Russia has said it would recognize the result, deepening a crisis that began with the popular overthrow of Ukraine's Moscow-backed president in February and Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula in March.

In its official journal, the European Union said Sergey Kozyakov, who was election commission chief in the Luhansk region, was "responsible for organizing the so-called elections ... in the so-called Luhansk People's Republic".

"He has actively supported actions and policies which undermine the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine," the bloc said.

Others on the sanctions list are election organizers and separatist ministers in Luhansk and in the eastern region of Donetsk. They are accused of the same wrongdoing as Kozyakov.

The sanctions are the European Union's latest step in attempts to pressure Russia to halt its support for the rebels. They follow economic sanctions imposed on Russia in July.

EU governments are also discussing proposals for an "enhanced ban" on investments in Crimea.


http://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-eu-imposes-sanctions-rebel-election-org
anizers-1730740


Because nothing says "democracy" like punishing referenda!

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns. But by god, Kiev keeps trying!

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Saturday, November 29, 2014 11:02 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

How is that not happening now?
Well, of course it's happening now. The only thing missing is that the media hasn't called it one.

Quote:

Nothing says antiquated dictator trying to steal another nation's land by use of force like Russia's latest action.
Nothing says "punishable offense" like Russia's latest action.
Nothing says "breaking international law" like Russia's latest action.

What has Russia done lately? It seems to me that all of the recent aggressive actions (removing eastern Ukraine from international law, forward positioning troops, sanctioning the vote organizers, stopping banking and other services, vowing to make Ukrainian the sole language), and actively seeking help from the West and admission into NATO, have been precipitated by Kiev and the west.

How do you not notice these things? These are real events fully reported by Kiev's media and backed up by Western media. Why do you keep pointing to ephemeral "Russian" events which may not even be happening - or happening to the extent that you fear - while ignoring provocations by Kiev and the west? I told you when it happened that Kiev announced its forward troop movements. I showed you that Kiev withdrew that announcement because they wanted to save it for the time when they could play innocent and claim it was "in response to" the responding troop movements on the other side of the border. I tell you again that the activities by Kiev (sanctions, banking and other services cutoffs) are a set-piece, precipitated by the west and designed to provoke even further action by Russia and the Donbass. When alternate banking services are provided by Russia, are you going to go all ballistic and blame Russia - again?

You seem to think that you "really want to know what's going on". Well, maybe it's time you started finding out.


G, is it possible to have a discussion and not a grudge match? How can we get back on-track?

------------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, November 30, 2014 1:30 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


you never were on track, b/c frankly he's a delusional nutcase as bad a rappy




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Sunday, November 30, 2014 10:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


A discussion from a strategists' POV

Quote:

a) Is a Nazi regime in the Ukraine intrinsically viable? That is, in the best of external circumstances, could a Nazi regime remain in power in the Ukraine? In practical terms this means this: can the Nazis prevent the total "somalization" of what is left of the Ukraine? Could they, if given enough support from abroad, stabilize and somehow rebuilt some form of statehood?

b) Even if a Nazi regime in Kiev is viable, can the countries around the Ukraine accept a Nazi Ukraine as a long-term neighbor? After all, Hitler was never voted out of power, it took the Soviet military (with some late assistance by the Anglo powers) to get rid of him. I would argue that there are some regimes which are inherently so terrible that nobody can ever accept them (ISIS for example).

Now let's begin by the first question.

I don't think that anybody will deny that the Ukraine is a sinking ship. The Ukrainian economy is gone, finished, dead. There is no money left, no cash, no gold. Right now, the Ukraine is literally "coasting by inertia on an empty tank" and when it finally comes to a standstill things will get really, really ugly.

Right now, the regime in power is busy doing all sorts of very "patriotic" but utterly useless things. They are re-writing history books (even though they lack the money to print them), they are accepting non-citizens in top government positions (Americans, Poles, Germans, Lithuanians, Georgians, etc.) and they are changing the name of WWII. Great stuff, for sure, but it is painfully clear that they Junta has no plan to fix the economy and that it won't even pretend. So we are dealing with a sinking ship whose crew is not even pretending to make an effort to prevent her from going to the bottom of the ocean. How viable is that?


http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/

Worth looking into.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, November 30, 2014 2:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


OK LOOK! RUSSIA'S RESPONSE TO KIEV CUTTING OFF ELECTRICITY, PENSIONS, PUBLIC SECTOR SALARIES AND BANKING!

Large, unauthorized convoy enters east Ukraine from Russia: Ukrainian military
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/large-unauthorized-convoy-enters-east-ukrain
e-russia-ukrainian-134642916.html


Now being presented by Kiev and kindly passed on by western press as an "invasion".

Did I not just predict this? Why is it that you can't seem to figure this out?

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Monday, December 1, 2014 11:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, sending in humanitarian assistance is now considered (BY YOU) to be an "invasion".

This shows just how twisted you are: In addition to shelling civilian targets, Kiev cuts off money, electricity, banking services and any other support from the capital. Winter is approaching .... you may have noticed snow on the ground. The LAST time Russia attempted to send a humanitarian convoy through, they NEVER got permission. They were jerked around by Kiev for over two weeks, and finally went in without it. Do you think Kiev would grant permission now??? Kiev is taking every move to displace the population and the LAST thing they want is for people to have the resources to stay put.

If it were any other nation sending in humanitarian assistance into a war-torn area ... say, France sending assistance into Xtian communities of Mali, despite every attempt by Muslim leaders to isolate Xtian population centers... you would be whooping and hollering about how wonderful it was! The last thing you'd be thinking about is... geee, the French are "invading".

But your idea of "good and evil" is so very, very bendable. It has nothing to do with suffering and death, and everything to do with whether it's "for", "against", or "by" Russia. And rather than noticing that Kiev is targeting civilians, and the population as a whole, and their language (which some might think is part of a plan to scare away Russian-speakers from the region... ie a plan of ethnic cleansing) you're all twisted when the population is supported with food, water, fuel, blankets, and generators for the coming winter?


Yanno what, GEEWHIZ? You'd be a fuckuva lot nicer if you took that anti-Russian stick out of your ass. Sheesh, no wonder you're such a douche.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Monday, December 1, 2014 2:31 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


And here you are, claiming to 'know' what's going on though you have absolutely NO solid evidence. It's all bias and conjecture. I'm not sure you're capable of discussing reality. I'm not sure you understand what that is.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Monday, December 1, 2014 2:57 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So Signy - I get where you're coming from. The pieces are being moved, no matter the blah blah blah. Once the pieces are in place, the US and UK WILL make sure to get their 'casus belli'. They've been working on it for over a year.

ETA; so I've been thinking about it. I think the reason why the US isn't gearing up the propaganda - yet - is b/c they really don't want a winter war. If that's the case, I expect to see that change come late Jan, early Feb.

I have to laugh though when I see articles about Russia 'threatening' with its non-incursions that are close to - though never in! - western territory. What do these western dipshits - thanks for that word 'G' - expect?

If the western powers are smart (never a safe assumption) they'll understand what it means: don't mess with Russia. But, nope, like the dopes they are, they'll keep on until it's full scale war. With Russia. Won't THAT be fun?




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Monday, December 1, 2014 8:43 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Kiev cuts off money,

I love how the separatists declare an independent state, but still expect funding from Kiev.

Quote:

The LAST time Russia attempted to send a humanitarian convoy through,

You remember when the Russian aid convoy was going to be handled completely by the Red Cross, because the Russians had nothing to hide? Does anyone else remember that?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, December 1, 2014 9:26 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-ukraine-crisis-banks-spec
ialreport-idUSKCN0J40FJ20141120


a steady stream of frustrated residents exited a government office, clutching folders of bank records and shaking their heads in disgust.

"They are not returning the money," complained Margarita Pobudilova, a 77-year-old retired factory worker who for months has been unable to access more than $3,000 of her life savings.

http://rt.com/news/209283-banks-cash-east-ukraine/

Only a handful of cash machines are still functional in the breakaway parts of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions, after local banks received an order from Ukraine’s central bank earlier this week to “suspend” operations.

This follows a controversial decree signed by Ukrainian President Petro Porishenko on November 16 that is now coming into effect. Kiev is cutting economic ties with rebel-held areas by freezing bank accounts and stopping social payments, including pensions.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 10:21 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


They were deliberately shut off.

So there, G, I see you continuing to show all sorts of concerns for the civilians Kiev is targeting. Not. (Because that was sarcasm.)

Apparently Russia - who doesn't seem to have killed, well, anyone, is TERRIBLE. But Kiev - it's golden. You must really like governments that kill their own citizens - or hell, ANY civilians - by the thousands, and are actively trying to starve and freeze them out as well. The Warsaw ghetto was probably an all-time fav. And I'm sure the Germans had their reasons, too. What a guy. (That also was sarcasm.)




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 11:27 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Kiki, stop pretending that you care about civilians. When the separatists kill civilians, or use civilians as human shields, you are silent. Spare the world your shrill hypocrisy.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 11:56 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


And yet I can show you reports - verified, by neutral observers - that Kiev kills civilians. But you - well, you have 1 unsourced video, and your claims, (which frankly are suspect), and no ACTUAL solid evidence that the separatists have killed civilians. Or have destroyed infrastructure like water and sanitary systems, fuel supplies, supply routes, hospitals, apartments, schools, or markets. Or shut off ATM and credit card lines.

So, go ahead, keep braying that Kiev was somehow MADE to do all that it's done. Be a real force for good. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA Ha ha ha ha




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 12:20 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

And yet I can show you reports - verified, by neutral observers - that Kiev kills civilians. But you - well, you have 1 unsourced video... and no ACTUAL solid evidence that the separatists have killed civilians.

You blithering idiot, your very own source of 'neutral observers', the OSCE, refer to instances of separatists shelling civilian areas. I pointed this out to you in the other thread.

You still can't answer the question about who is to blame for civilians areas getting hit after separatists purposefully fire from them...

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 12:34 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


refer to CLAIMS of separatists shelling civilian areas (not observed by the OSCE)

Fixed that for you. You're welcome.

And the infrastructure? Yanno, water, electricity, fuel, supply lines ... hospitals, schools, markets ... factories? Cutting off people's money? Encircling civilians areas and attacking those who try to flee?

You down with that? Try to say no, if you can.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 8:17 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

refer to CLAIMS of separatists shelling civilian areas (not observed by the OSCE)

So what, you're claiming the OSCE actually physically observed Kiev shelling civilian areas and killing civilians? Please highlight those sections of the reports for me.

And what are you talking about 'CLAIMS' of separatists shelling civilian areas? The OSCE reported on areas controlled by Kiev forces that had been heavily shelled, with ensuing damage to civilian infrastructure. What 'claims' are you talking about?

Anyone who's not a brainwashed zombie can read those reports and glean that both sides are shelling and hitting civilian areas, and that the evidence against one side or other is the same - "this separatist-held civilian area was heavily shelled..." vs. "this Ukrainian-held civilian area was heavily shelled..."

I take it you can't answer my question about who's to blame when separatists use civilians as human shields. I should create a 'questions Kiki can't answer' thread.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014 10:52 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So, you down with everything Kiev is doing to civilians?


It's a simple question.

ETA: I forgot bombing, the old fashioned kind, with bombers. Since the independents don't have bombers, any bombing of civilians can be unambiguously traced back to Kiev.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Thursday, December 4, 2014 11:34 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

So, you down with everything Kiev is doing to civilians?

No, absolutely not. Be careful when you say 'Kiev' - one needs to make a distinction between what individual soldiers or battalions do or have allegedly done, and what has been ordered at the command level. But the use of cluster munitions for example, is something I would condemn Kiev for. As for general, reckless indiscriminate shelling as detailed by the OSCE, yes we can condemn both sides for that.

Are you down with what the separatists are doing to civilians according to OSCE reports Kiki?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, December 8, 2014 12:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


From the very beginning, I thought this was all triggered by Russia's assistance to Syria. Let me be perfectly clear: I think the USA's plans to remove Assad are just one more example of the USA plans to turn yet another Mideast nation into a failed state. Not only is that plan horribly misguided for our future, it's EVIL. Yes, EVIL. The Russians were the good guys, and we were the bad guys.

Russian access to the Mediterranean and to the Russian naval station in Syria came from Sevastopol. And since the USA has destabilization groups all over the world (in Venezuela, Thailand, Brazil etc in the form of USAID and State Department-connected NGOs) all they needed to do was turn up the heat in Kiev. Clearly, Nuland, Pyatt, and McCain* were all behind the overthrow of the Yanukovich government, and they intended to steamroll the EU ("fuck the EU") to get behind their plan, no matter how Europeans or the various EU governments felt.

*McCain is a reliable indicator of a USA-sponsored "color revolution". He's like a fucking stormcrow, sitting on the shoulders of whatever President-cum-dictator-in-waiting we have on our roster.

As far as those sanctions are concerned, the USA has put considerable pressure on the EU. If you've been paying attention, you would have noticed that BNP Paribas came in for some spectacular fines before the Mistral ships were canceled, the Bulgaria suffered mysterious bank runs (even tho their banks were well-capitalized) before they withdrew from the South Stream pipeline.

There is thinking within the Russian government that this is more than about the Ukraine, which was only a set-piece in a larger plan. The thinking is that the USA sanctions are aiming for regime change in Russia itself. Although Putin has tremendous popular support, and the Parliament is solidly behind him, there are various government functionaries- such as the head of the Bank of Russia - who form a fifth column to the Russian economy. Their plan is to sell Russia out (the thinking goes) and bail out to the west. The fall of the price of oil and the collapse of the Ruble, as well as the inability to raise capital from the west, all speaks to that plan.

There was a great choice before Putin's State of the State address- whether to go the western/IMF route or to break away from the west as much as possible. Well, I listened to that speech, and Putin's address to the Federal Assembly and to Russia was a big EFFU to the west. And he canceled the South Stream pipeline, leaving all those wishy-washy invested EU nations (Bulgaria, Germany etc) holding the bag. Instead, the pipeline will take a minor change in direction and go to Turkey instead. EFFU indeed!

The heat is being turned up economically and politically, on both sides. You have to be paying attention to see it.

But one of the things that you should be noticing is that it's the west that has plans to destroy other nations and change other governments and impose its will (militarily, if necessary) on many parts of the world.

So much for democracy!


--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns. But KPO and G sure think you can!

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Tuesday, December 9, 2014 8:11 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, speaking of Stormcrow McCain, I hadn't known this when I posted, but was interested to see the following in "EU's Juncker Folds To Gazprom On South Stream Pipeline"

Quote:

As things stand, the previous Bulgarian government was badgered by the EU and visited by John McCain, whose primary mission was apparently to stop the pipeline from being built. The government announced that all construction on the pipeline would be stopped two hours after McCain left.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-08/eus-juncker-folds-gazprom-sou
th-stream-pipeline


That asshole never met a war he didn't like. The guy is sick in the head, and how he still remains in office says something about the sickness of the American people.



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns. But McCain would love to build them on mushroom clouds!

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Tuesday, December 23, 2014 1:08 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


China openly and officially backs Russia

Quote:

Well, now we have it from the most official source possible: Foreign Minister Wang Yi who declared on Monday. “If the Russian side needs it, we will provide necessary assistance within our capacity". Considering the US rhetoric and imperial mindset which proclaims that "you are either with us or against us" it is pretty clear what such a declaration really means: China is putting the US on notice that in the current economic war Russia will have the full backing of China.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/12/china-openly-and-officially-
backs-russia.html


Meanwhile, Kiev is continuing to do everything it can to start a full-scale war between NATO and/or individual NATO members, and Russia:
Ukraine votes to drop neutral status
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30587924


Time to tally up "who's got what" and start thinking about who is going to win this war.




--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Tuesday, December 23, 2014 6:02 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Here is an excerpt from the 25-page post behind that snippet. It is (after the first two pages) primarily a list of trade, banking, communication, finance, military, education, cultural, technology, and energy agreements between Russia and China. It's quite a list!

Quote:

Full Spectrum Battlefield
The threat against China and Russia is a full spectrum battlefield: they are facing
potential AirSeaSpaceCyberElectromagnetic warfare, not exempting chemical,
biological and nuclear; soon to include laser and hypersonic weapons; economic
warfare; and war by proxy armies, NGO organizations, covert operators and
agents, with global media demonization and propaganda in psyops mode.
Each nation in the resistance partnership had to permit the other to look, touch
and feel deeply into one another’s most treasured defense secrets, once armed
against the other, now united with a new partner.
They knew they were in the same ‘foxhole’ facing the same enemy. And they
both understood, that in time, neither would survive without the other. There had
never been a hegemon so desperate or so fundamentally weak, yet so powerfully
equipped to destroy all normalcy, perhaps, most of humanity, if need be, for it to
survive. China-Russia had to protect one another and then try to save humanity
and world order. The initial attack was economic, not military. It hit Russia.


http://www.mediafire.com/view/k9w283j169ujuo6/China-Russia_Double_Heli
x.pdf


--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, December 27, 2014 3:00 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Faster and faster.

Things are moving faster and faster, the pieces definitively moving to one side or the other. Kiev cut electricity, banking, and transportation from Crimea, just as they previously cut off water (in the summer). Crimea doesn't get these service for free, they pay for them. And although I can't find any information on whether Crimea is in arrears, the reason for the cutoff wasn't due to non-payment, but to "safety" concerns.

Ceasefire negotiations were broken off after an exchange of prisoners.

Meanwhile, Kiev managed to find that $1.65B owed, and so Russian gas keeps flowing to Ukraine and beyond. It would be so easy for Russia throttle back the flow of gas, tap some off for the Donbas region (since that is where the gas pipeline enters) and let Kiev and the EU fight over the remainder.

It's funny, but the only nation which seems to still be treating Ukraine (minus Crimea) as a single nation is Russia.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, December 27, 2014 4:55 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

SIG

It's funny, but the only nation which seems to still be treating Ukraine (minus Crimea) as a single nation is Russia.



Wow, and I mean wow are you delusional.

SOCIOPATH; look it up, 1kiki has a link. The two of you can read it together



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Saturday, December 27, 2014 6:22 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

It's funny, but the only nation which seems to still be treating Ukraine (minus Crimea) as a single nation is Russia.-SIGNY

Wow, and I mean wow are you delusional.- THUGR



Russia says to supply coal, electricity to Ukraine

Quote:

Russia has agreed on a new deal to supply coal and electricity to Ukraine, which is struggling with a lack of raw fuel for power plants due to a separatist conflict in the industrial east, Russian officials said on Saturday.

The move comes a day after Kiev said it would suspend train and bus services to Crimea, effectively creating a transportation blockade to and from the region annexed by Moscow in March this year. Kiev has briefly cut off electricity to Crimea before.

Russia will supply coal and electricity to Kiev without advance payment as a goodwill gesture from President Vladimir Putin, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS news agency.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/27/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-coa
l-idUSKBN0K508F20141227



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, December 27, 2014 7:35 PM

THGRRI


I've said all I need to.


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Saturday, December 27, 2014 10:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
I've said all I need to.



HAHAHAHAHA! I think you've said far more than you "needed" to, considering that you added nothing of substance to the thread.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, December 28, 2014 9:55 AM

THGRRI


By the way, your lack of reasoning power shows up with every post in your signature. Guns and bombs drove the British out of America and this country was built.


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Thursday, January 1, 2015 7:09 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

By the way, your lack of reasoning power shows up with every post in your signature. Guns and bombs drove the British out of America and this country was built
At the moment, it's your lack of comprehension and grammar that is showing.

"Guns and bombs drove the British out of American and this country was built"
WTF does that mean?

Also, if you've read my tagline and my other relevant posts with just a little comprehension, I never said that you can't DEFEND a nation with guns and bombs. It's just that you can't BUILD one on the basis of constantly threatening your citizens with being shot or bombed (or jailed or tortured) if they don't fall in line.

It's a little like having overseers .... sure, you can stand with a whip over someone and make them do what you want them to, but it's a terribly ineffective way of getting anything done. It works much better of people are motivated along the same lines.

Nations and societies are the same way: You can sure destroy another nation with guns and bombs... clear other people out so you can take over their land and resources, or keep them out so that you can continue your progress. But a society and a nation are built when people believe in the same things together.


--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Thursday, January 1, 2015 8:13 PM

THGRRI


If you don't get that I am certainly right. You are not an American. You're an import and my bet is from Russia. GO HOME COMRADE


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Thursday, January 1, 2015 8:40 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I happen to know you're wrong on all counts. And also, that your grammar - or your thinking - are so scrambled you can't put a coherent sentence together. "If you don't get that I am certainly right." Care to translate that into something resembling a coherent thought? A well-placed comma or a conjunction and verb would do it. My guess is that you'll come back with some idiocy that you're completely correct.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Thursday, January 1, 2015 9:35 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

If you don't get that I am certainly right. You are not an American. You're an import and my bet is from Russia. GO HOME COMRADE
Yanno, the funny thing is, I'm the one who is arguing for freedom: America was created because everyone agreed that (for a variety of reasons) they wanted more freedom from England. That was their core common belief.

YOU'RE the one who is saying that it's possible to whip people into obedience. That it's possible to build a nation by bombing people into line, that it's possible to create a society by shooting people until the rest submit.

Hey Comrade! You must be from Russia!


Please read my tagline again. If you keep reading it, eventually it may sink in.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Thursday, January 1, 2015 9:47 PM

THGRRI


No SIDNYM, you are the one arguing against freedom. You either don't realize it or do not know what freedom means.

By Alan Cullison


Updated July 29, 2006 12:01 a.m. ET


MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law making slander of a public official a criminal offense, a move opposition and watchdog groups described as yet another blow in the Kremlin's unrelenting assault on beleaguered democratic institutions.

His approval of the measure on Friday is a fresh rebuke to Western leaders and civic groups who leaned on Mr. Putin at a Group of Eight conference in St. Petersburg this month to stop squeezing opposition parties and freedom of speech. Analysts say Mr. Putin's decision to sign the law is a harbinger for an even greater clampdown on Russian society as the government prepares for presidential elections in 2008.

"He is signing a law that erases all ability to criticize the authorities and to have any real discussion in the media," said Lilia Shevtsova, a political analyst at the Carnegie Foundation in Moscow. "The long-term trend is pretty clear: Russia is in the midst of an election campaign and the czar doesn't want any questions."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB115413548494821152



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Thursday, January 1, 2015 9:53 PM

THGRRI


Here is some more of what you call freedom SIGNYM.

Eyes on Ukraine, Putin Tightens Curbs on Protesters
Reuters
May. 06 2014 20:30
Last edited 20:30


While all eyes are turned to Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has quietly enacted laws which opponents say will strengthen his hand in a battle against dissent in Russia.


Putin signed laws on Monday envisaging tougher punishment for people involved in riots and imposing life sentences for various "terrorist" crimes. He also approved tighter controls on bloggers, some of whom have emerged as opposition leaders and have used the Internet to criticize Putin and arrange protests.

"All this tightening will be applied only for political ends," said Dmitry Gudkov, a member of parliament who helped organize rallies against Putin in several cities in the winter of 2011 to 2012.


The moves underline Kremlin concern that the unrest in Ukraine, where demonstrations caused the Moscow-backed president to , might encourage protests in Russia, even though the annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine has helped push Putin's ratings to their highest level since late 2010.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/499659.html


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Thursday, January 1, 2015 10:01 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


This is an interesting read. It's very long, because it's an analysis of all the events around Ukraine in 2014 and a look ahead.

I don't agree with all of it, but it's by an (Russian?) ex-military analyst who currently lives in Florida, and I found his perspective interesting. But since it's so long, I've snipped the parts that I thought were the most interesting:
---------------------------


Quote:

Imagine this:

A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine

The Ukrainians are told to attack Novorussia again. This time, they are more numerous, better equipped and their attack is fully supported, if not executed, by American "advisers" and retired US Army officers. Imagine further that the Ukrainians are given full intelligence support by US/NATO and that their progress is monitored 24/7 by US/NATO commanders who will help them in the conduct of the attack. Finally, let us assume that the Novorussians are overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude and speed of the attack and that Lugansk and Donetsk are rapidly surrounded. At this point the Russians will face a stark choice: either to abandon Novorussia to the Nazis or intervene ... If the Russians make the call that they have to openly intervene to save the Donbass from the Nazis, the Ukrainians don't stand a chance and everybody knows that...

Such a Russian victory would be a crushing military defeat for Kiev, but not for the USA. ... In the Ukraine and in Russia there is this black-humor joke which says that "the USA will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian" and this is exactly what might happen as this option offers a lot of major advantages for the USA. For one thing, it is a win-win proposition: either the Ukrainians re-take Novorussia and then the very same plan can be repeated in Crimea, or they are defeated by Russia, in which case the resulting crisis offers huge benefits for US imperial ambitions.


... So far Russia stands undefeated by the AngloZionist empire, but she is far from having prevailed either. In fact, Russia is waging a much bigger war or, more accurately, a number of much bigger wars.

First, Russia is trying to survive the attempt by the AngloZionist Empire to economically blockade her.
Second, in order to survive that blockade, Russia is trying to reform her economy to make it less dependent on the export of raw materials, more autonomous and connected to new partners, especially in Asia and Latin America.
Third, Russia is trying to de-fang the Empire by pulling herself out from the dollar and the US/UK controlled international financial system.
Fourth, Russia is trying to prevent the USA from permanently installing a russophobic Nazi regime in power.
Fifth, Russia is preparing for both a major war in the Ukraine and a full scale US/NATO attack on Russia.

[But] the biggest threat for Russia is internal, not external. Nothing is more dangerous for the future of Russia then what I call the "Atlantic Integrationists" and which Putin even called the "5th column". And make no mistake here, we are not talking about Khodorkovsy in New York or Navalnii in the streets of Moscow. We are talking about powerful, rich, influential people who for decades (since Gorbachev's times, or even before) have infiltrated all the levels of government and who today are even in the government of Prime Minister Medvedev.

The single most important political development for Russia is the Russian-Chinese Strategic Alliance (RCSA) which fundamentally changes the entire strategic posture of Russia.

.... Russia desperately needs more time and I expect the Russian diplomacy to try every possible delaying tactic imaginable to buy as much time as possible before the inevitable Ukrainian attack on Novorussia. I am even willing to consider that the recent sale (really, a gift) of coal to Kiev might be such a delaying tactic. For Russia every month, week or day which can delay an overt confrontation with the Ukraine or the West is one day won for preparation internal reform. It is also one more day for the junta in Kiev to slide down one further notch, for the EU economies to carry the full impact of anti-Russian sanctions and for the US to suffer the political consequences of their arrogant, irresponsible and generally unpopular imperial policies.



SNIP!

FULL ARTICLE

Quote:

2014 "End of Year" report and a look into what 2015 might bring

Introduction:
By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don't think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) "moved" this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the "vectors" of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of "unknown unknowns" (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.

The main event and the main actors
A comprehensive analysis of 2014 should include most major countries on the planet, but this would be too complicated and, ultimately, useless. I think that it is indisputable that the main event of 2014 has been the war in the Ukraine. This crisis not only overshadowed the still ongoing Anglo-Zionist attack on Syria, but it pitted the world's only two nuclear superpowers (Russia and the USA) directly against each other. And while some faraway countries did have a minor impact on the Ukrainian crisis, especially the BRICS, I don't think that a detailed discussion of South African or Brazilian politics would contribute much. There is a short list of key actors whose role warrants a full analysis. They are:

The USA
The Ukrainian Junta
The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)
Russia
The EU
NATO
China

I submit that these seven actors account for 99.99% of the events in the Ukraine and that an analysis of the stance of each one of them is crucial. So let's take them one by one:

1 - The USA

Of all the actors in this crisis, the USA is by far the most consistent and coherent one. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Hillary Clinton and Victoria Nuland were very clear about US objectives in the Ukraine:

Zbigniew Brzezinski: Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be empire, while with Ukraine - bought off first and subdued afterwards, it automatically turns into empire…(...) the new world order under the hegemony of the United States is created against Russia and on the fragments of Russia. Ukraine is the Western outpost to prevent the recreation of the Soviet Union.

Hillary Clinton: There is a move to re-Sovietise the region (...) It’s not going to be called that. It’s going to be called a customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that, (...) But let's make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.

Victoria Nuland: F**k the EU!

Between the three, these senior US "deep-staters" have clearly and unambiguously defined the primary goal of the USA: to take control of the Ukraine to prevent Russia from becoming a new Soviet Union, regardless of what the EU might have to say about that. Of course, there were other secondary goals which I listed in June of this year (see here):

As a reminder, what were the US goals in the Ukraine: (in no particular order)

Sever the ties between Russia and the Ukraine
Put a russophobic NATO puppet regime in power in Kiev
Boot the Russians out of Crimea
Turn Crimea into a unsinkable US/NATO aircraft carrier
Create a Cold War v2 in Europe
Further devastate the EU economies
Secure the EU's status as "US protectorate/colony"
Castrate once and for all EU foreign policies
Politically isolate Russia
Maintain the worldwide dominance of the US dollar
Justify huge military/security budgets

Current "score card": 1 "achieved", 5 "possible, 2 "compromised" and 3 "failed".

Here is how I would re-score the same goals at the end of the year:

New score card: 6 "achieved", 1 "possible", 1 "compromised" and 3 "failed"


At first glance, this is a clear success for the USA: from 1 achieved to 6 with the same number of "failed" is very good for such a short period of time. However, a closer look will reveal something crucial: all the successes of the USA were achieved at the expense of the EU and none against Russia.

Not only that, but the USA has failed in its main goal: to prevent Russia from becoming a superpower, primarily because the US policy was based on a hugely mistaken assumption: that Russia needed the Ukraine to become a superpower again. This monumental miscalculation also resulted in another very bad fact for the USA: the dollar is still very much threatened, more so than a year ago in fact.

This is so important that I will repeat it again: the AngloZionist Empire predicated its entire Ukrainian strategy on a completely wrong assumption: that Russia "needed" the Ukraine. Russia does not, and she knows that. As we shall see later, a lot of the key events of this year are a direct result of this huge miscalculation.

The US is now facing a paradox: "victory" in the Ukraine, "victory" in Europe, but failure to stop a rapidly rising Russia. Worse, these "victories" came at a very high price which included creating tensions inside the EU, threatening the future of the US shale gas industry, alienating many countries at the UN, being deeply involved with a Nazi regime, becoming the prime suspect in the shooting down of MH17 and paying the costs for an artificially low price of gold. But the single worst consequence of the US foreign policy in the Ukraine has been the establishment of a joint Russian-Chinese strategic alliance clearly directed against the United States (more about that later).

Can the US stay the course next year? That is hard to predict but I would say that in terms of direction the US policy will be more of the same. It is the magnitude (in the sense of will/energy to pursue) of this policy which is dubious. Traditionally, US policies are typically very intensive in the short term, but lack the staying power to see them through in the long term and there is no reason to believe that this case will be different. Furthermore, the US foreign policy establishment is probably simply unable to imagine a different approach: the United States do not really have a real foreign policy, rather they issue orders and directives to their vassal states and threats to all others. Finally, just as some banks are considered "too big to fail" the US policy towards the Ukraine is "too crazy to correct" thus any change of course would result in a major loss of face for an Empire which really cannot afford one more humiliating defeat right now. Still, when the political and financial costs of this policy become prohibitive, the US might have to consider the option to "declare victory and leave" (a time-honored US practice) and let the EU deal with the mess. There is also the very real risk of war with Russia which might give some US decision-makers pause. This is possible, but I am afraid that the US will try to play it's last card and trigger a full-scale war between the Ukraine and Russia.

Why would the US want to do that? Imagine this:

A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine

The Ukrainians are told to attack Novorussia again. This time, they are more numerous, better equipped and their attack is fully supported, if not executed, by American "advisers" and retired US Army officers. Imagine further that the Ukrainians are given full intelligence support by US/NATO and that their progress is monitored 24/7 by US/NATO commanders who will help them in the conduct of the attack. Finally, let us assume that the Novorussians are overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude and speed of the attack and that Lugansk and Donetsk are rapidly surrounded. At this point the Russians will face a stark choice: either to abandon Novorussia to the Nazis or intervene. The first option would be catastrophic for Putin politically, and it would "solve" nothing: the Ukrainian junta, the US, EU, NATO have all clearly and repeatedly stated that they will never accept the reincorporation of Crimea into Russia. Furthermore, if the Russians let the Nazis overrun Novorussia, the next logical step for the Ukrainians will be to move south and repeat the very same operation in Crimea at which point Russia will not even have a choice and she will be forced to engage the Ukrainians to defend Crimea. Thus, if the Russians realize that the Ukrainians will push on no matter what, then Russia would be far better of engaging the Ukrainians over Novorussia then over Crimea.

If the Russians make the call that they have to openly intervene to save the Donbass from the Nazis, the Ukrainians don't stand a chance and everybody knows that. The Russians would very rapidly defeat the Ukrainian forces. Such a Russian move would be greeted by a massive media campaign denouncing the Russian "invasion" and Kiev would probably declare the Ukraine at war in which case the combat operations would probably spill over into other parts of the Ukraine or even Russia (the Ukrainians could, for example, try to strike Russians airports around Rostov or in Crimea). Whatever the Ukrainians decide, it is certain that they would have nothing to lose by escalating the situation further. In military terms, Russia can easily handle whatever the Ukrainians can try to throw at them. However I would not expect the Russians push to Kiev or the Dniper River, even if they could. They are most likely to do what they did to Saakashvili in 2008: protect the attacked region and only go as far as needed to disarm their enemy (in 2008 Russia could *easily* have occupied all of tiny Georgia, but she ended up withdrawing behind Ossetian and Abkhaz lines).

Such a Russian victory would be a crushing military defeat for Kiev, but not for the USA. The Americans would have their 'proof' of Russian imperial "aggression" and declare that the EU needs "protection" from the "Russian bear". The US would finally have the Cold War v2 it wants so badly, the EU politicians would play along, just to terrify their own population, and a "wonderful" arms race and a situation of extreme tension would pit all of Europe against Russia for a long, long time. Even for the junta in Kiev a military defeat might be a wonderful opportunity to blame it all on Russia and a way to get the population to rally against the "aggressor". Such a war between Russia and the Ukraine could also justify the introduction of martial law and a massive and vicious crackdown against "Russian agents" (i.e. any opposition) who would be designated as "saboteurs" and responsible for the inevitable Ukrainian defeat.

In the Ukraine and in Russia there is this black-humor joke which says that "the USA will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian" and this is exactly what might happen as this option offers a lot of major advantages for the USA. For one thing, it is a win-win proposition: either the Ukrainians re-take Novorussia and then the very same plan can be repeated in Crimea, or they are defeated by Russia, in which case the resulting crisis offers huge benefits for US imperial ambitions.

Now let's look at the options for the Ukrainian junta.

2 - The Ukrainian Junta

For the Nazi regime currently in power things are not going well and unless something changes they are headed for disaster: Crimea is gone, the Donbass is slowly but surely building up its instruments of statehood, the economy is basically dead and the "holes in the dam" harder and harder to plug. An explosion of popular unrest is inevitable. Worse, there are exactly *zero* future prospects for the Ukrainian economy and an official default is quasi inevitable. So what can the junta do?

Here it is crucial to remember that no Ukrainian politician has any real power, not even Poroshenko, Iatseniuk or Turchinov. The real rulers of the Ukraine are the US ambassador and the Kiev CIA station chief. These are the people who literally administer the Nazi junta on behalf of the US deep state and its imperial interests. As for the Ukrainian members of the junta, they all perfectly understand that their future is 100% dependent on being a faithful servant of the AngloZionist Empire. They all understand that they came to power by means of an completely illegal coup, that the elections they organized this year were a total farce and that they will soon have to use repressive measures against their own population just to stay in power. Last but not least, these are the folks who not only used chemical munitions, cluster bombs and even ballistic missiles against their own people, but who also send their own armed forces to be slaughtered in useless and criminally irresponsible "surprises" ordered by Poroshenko (the attempt to encircle Novorussia and to cut it off from the Russian border). We are talking about hardened war criminals here, people with no conscience whatsoever, sociopaths with a total lack of any moral compass. These are the folks who spoke a "barbecue of insects" in Odessa when 100+ people were tortured to death or burned alive and who giggled about shooting down the wrong place about MH-17 (Kolomoisky video). In fact, they are currently engaged in a racist hate-campaign.

Check out these posters which were recently shown in Kiev as part of a competition of patriotic posters. If a picture is worth one thousand words, just glancing at these few will tell you all you need to know about the wordview of the Nazi junta: (note: I translated the meaning of the slogans)



Russians don't get to speak



All together we will stop Russian terrorism


God's speaks through the people's voice


Fuck off Eurasian bastard!


May each slave wake up in a coffin


Getting a Russian passport makes you a Eurasian faggot


Don't pass by - kill!

I have to explain the last one: what you see is a "Colorado beetle" (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) which has colors similar to the ones seen on the Russian Saint George Ribbon. In other words, this poster says that if you pass by a Russian you should kill him. Notice the other themes: the Maidan was God's voice, the Russians are "Eurasians" who are beasts who should have no right, not even the right to speak or live. This is exactly the same propaganda style as used by Hitler against Jews and we all know how this ended (yet again another proof that to refer to the junta as "Nazi" is perfectly justified).

But there is much more then just words to pay attention to.

The Ukrainian budget has finally been adopted by the Rada. It can be summarized as such: less services, more taxes and everything for the military and security services (3% of the GDP for the former, 2% for the latter). For a country which is essentially bankrupt this is a huge effort. Not only that, but the junta has also announced that it will execute another mobilization next year (the 4th one in less than one year!!). Now ask yourself a basic question: could such a truly titanic effort have been made without some very real expectations of a "return on investment"? When you see a regime stirring up racial hatred against part of its own population and against a neighboring country while putting all of its tiny and much needed resources towards preparations for war - is that not a surefire sign that a war in imminent?

As a former military analyst myself I can tell you that by now the Russian intelligence community's "indicators and warnings" should be "flashing red" and that in all likelihood Russia is already preparing for war (more about Russia later). But before we look at the Russian position, we need to look into the situation of Novorussia.

3 - The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)

The Novorussians are finishing the year in which they have achieved an absolutely amazing feat: from literally being *nothing* they spontaneously got together to stand up against the Nazi junta and they prevailed even with the entire Ukrainian military was launched at them. It is hard to believe that just 12 months ago the Donbass only meekly requested some language rights and some local autonomy or that earlier this year very almost nobody predicted that the Donbass would rise up and defeat the junta's death squads. And yet this miracle happened. How much did Russia really help? I would argue that not that much at all.

Initially, the Russian move to protect Crimea and the subsequent resolution of the Council of the Federation to allow Putin to use military power to protect the Russian minority in the Ukraine definitely played a key role in the first seizure of state buildings in Slaviansk and other town. Furthermore, Strelkov apparently believed that if he held on long enough the Russian armed forces would come and relieve the exhausted Novorussian militias. It never happened.

There is no doubt whatsoever that this apparent Russian "zag" left a lot of bad feelings in Novorussia and the theory that the Kremlin is about to "sell out" Novorussia is still discussed not only in the Russian blogosphere, but even on Russian TV (including yesterday on the most famous weekly talk show "Sunday evening with Vladimir Soloviev). Here is how this version goes: Putin is inherently weak and tries in vain to appease the West while Russian oligarchs are making a behind the scenes deal with their Ukrainian counterparts. Truth be told, this version is plausible, even if incorrect. The Kremlin's policy towards the West sure does look like appeasement while Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs have tried to arrange deals whether with or without the knowledge of the Russian government.

Any model is valid as long as it helps to explain the observed reality and this "Kremlin sells out Novorussia" does explain a lot. But it fails in many crucial aspects:

It fails to explain why following Strelkov's removal the Novorussians went on their highly successful offensive which pushed the Ukrainians as far as Mariupol.
It fails to explain the Russian Voentorg.
It fails to explain why the Russian government has done nothing to stop the volunteers and supplies coming from Russia.
It fails to explain why Russia would provide full informational support for a region and it's leaders if she intended to trade it away.

But most importantly this theory is completely out-of-character if we look not only at what Putin says and writes, but at his entire political career. Simply put, there is nobody on this planet which has done more to oppose the AngloZionist Empire than Vladimir Putin. I think that the hysterical and vicious demonization campaign against him in the western media is the best proof of that. I shall give my own explanation for the Russian zig-zags towards the West and the Ukrainian war in the next section, but so far let's just state that it created a lot of bad blood and anxiety amongst the Novorussians, including several of their field commanders.

For a while we witness the short lived but strong development of a "let's not stop before we win" party. These are the folks who advocated at the very least liberating Slaviansk and Mariupol and who were absolutely disgusted when Russia clearly ordered the Novorussians to stop and pull back. This party of what I could also call "let the strength of arms decide" has clearly lost as one after the other the top Novorussian commanders accepted, however bitterly, the Kremlin's demands. Some gave their strong and total support to Putin (Givi, Motorola, Bezler) while others gave a more reluctant acceptance of the fait accompli (Mozgovoi, Strelkov).

I won't even bother discussing the "shoulda, coulda, woulda" about whether the Novorussians could have freed Mariupol, Slaviansk or other cities. What is important here is something else: Novorussia and Russia have different priorities, different goals, different interests and if the two sides disagree, the bigger one - Russia - imposes her will. In other words, the Novorussians simply cannot fight the Nazi death squads and try to politically prevail against Putin in the court of Russian public opinion. They tried, and they failed.

So what's next?

The sad reality for the Novorussians is that they are stuck in the middle of a much bigger war and that what they see as "their" war is but a minor skirmish for the big players. Yes, the future of Novorussia is crucial to Russia, but it is not enough. Russia simply cannot live with a situation where a Ukrainian-Nazi equivalent of ISIS in Iraq remains in power in Kiev, regardless of who is in power in Novorussia (I would argue that neither can Novorussia, but that is an argument I made elsewhere already). Clearly the Kremlin analysts made the call that while Novorussia should be protected from the Ukrainian Nazis it should not be allowed to fight an open-ended war to free all of Novorussia or, even less so, the entire Ukraine (I happen to agree with this conclusion, but that is immaterial for this discussion).

For a while I was under the impression that Strelkov might become a "spokesman for Novorussia" in Russia, but that clearly did not happen (for whatever reason). In fact, right now there is no such ambassador or spokesman for Novorussia in Russia, nobody to make the Novorussian case in front of the Russian public opinion. I don't think that this is a good thing, but that is the reality.

As a result, the Novorussians are basically stuck. They have to prepare for the almost inevitable Ukrainian assault and pray that they will have the strength to push it back. Should they fail, they will have no other option than to pray for a Russian intervention which, considering the undeniable Russian zigs-zags in this matter, will not appear certain to all. This is a bad situation for the Novorussians, but they have no other options. Putin has successfully imposed his will on the Novorussians and now their future depends on him, for better or for worse.

4 - Russia

So far Russia stands undefeated by the AngloZionist empire, but she is far from having prevailed either. In fact, Russia is waging a much bigger war or, more accurately, a number of much bigger wars.

First, Russia is trying to survive the attempt by the AngloZionist Empire to economically blockade her.
Second, in order to survive that blockade, Russia is trying to reform her economy to make it less dependent on the export of raw materials, more autonomous and connected to new partners, especially in Asia and Latin America.
Third, Russia is trying to de-fang the Empire by pulling herself out from the dollar and the US/UK controlled international financial system.
Fourth, Russia is trying to prevent the USA from permanently installing a russophobic Nazi regime in power.
Fifth, Russia is preparing for both a major war in the Ukraine and a full scale US/NATO attack on Russia.

It is important to stress here that point #5 does not mean that the Kremlin has come to the conclusion that a full-scale war with the Empire is inevitable. That only means that the Kremlin has decided that such a war is possible, even if most unlikely. You think I am exaggerating?

... [Y]ou will clearly see that a) nobody in Russia has any illusions about what the Empire really wants (submit Russia) or about the tools the Empire is willing to use (full scale war). And to leave no doubt in anybody's mind, Russia has also revised her 2010 military doctrine to designate NATO expansion eastwards by name as the bigger threat to Russia and to restate that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if her conventional forces fail to protect her.

When in Mach of this year I wrote that Russia was ready for war I got a lot of replies accusing me of being over-the-top. Today the writing is all over the wall: Russia does not want war, but she is definitely preparing for it.

I would, however, argue that the biggest threat for Russia is internal, not external. Nothing is more dangerous for the future of Russia then what I call the "Atlantic Integrationists" and which Putin even called the "5th column". And make no mistake here, we are not talking about Khodorkovsy in New York or Navalnii in the streets of Moscow. We are talking about powerful, rich, influential people who for decades (since Gorbachev's times, or even before) have infiltrated all the levels of government and who today are even in the government of Prime Minister Medvedev. True, these pro-AngloZionist 5th columnists have suffered a series of setbacks and they have been weakened by Putin's relentless assault on their power, but what does "weaker" really mean in our context? According to Mikhail Khazin the Eurasian Sovereignists and the Atlantic Integrationists are now roughly at 50/50 in terms of power. That's right, Putin is far from having total control of Russia and he is in fact locked into a war for survival against a formidable foe who will try to capitalize on every setback Russia suffers, especially in her economy. Putin knows that and he is therefore in a race against time to de-couple Russia from the economic and financial mechanisms which make it possible for the AngloZionists to hurt Russia.

How much does this 5th column account for the apparent zig-zags and apparent appeasement of the West by Russia?

I honestly don't know. Neither does anybody else who is not a true Kremlin insider. In some cases, such as the Minsk agreements, I think that this apparent "zag" was an true expression of Russian political goals. But when I see that Russia is selling coal to the Ukraine on credit (?!) I can only conclude that this is a case of sabotage of Russian national interests. But we will never know for sure. All we can do is to accept that Russia is like a ship or aircraft which is generally holding a specific course, but which regularly zig-zags on the way because the folks in the cockpit are fighting for the control of the helm. In practical terms this means that next year Russia will mostly stay the course. Why? Because time is on Russia's side. For Russia every month, week or day which can delay an overt confrontation with the Ukraine or the West is one day won for preparation internal reform. It is also one more day for the junta in Kiev to slide down one further notch, for the EU economies to carry the full impact of anti-Russian sanctions and for the US to suffer the political consequences of their arrogant, irresponsible and generally unpopular imperial policies.

The single most important political development for Russia is the Russian-Chinese Strategic Alliance (RCSA) which fundamentally changes the entire strategic posture of Russia. I will discuss this tectonic shift in world politics further below, but right now I want to the position of the EU.

5 - The EU

2014 was truly a historical year for the EU marked by the wholesale and abject surrender of the EU political leaders to the United States. From the EU guaranteed agreement between the opposition and Yanokovich which was broken the very next day, the Victoria Nuland's famous words which were never challenged, to the introduction of sanctions the day after the signing of the Minsk agreement, to the political and economic seppuku against South Stream, to the shameful silence and even collaboration with the murderers of the passengers of MH17 - the EU has proven to all that it is only a spineless colony of the AngloZionist Empire and that the EU and the Ukraine are equally subservient puppets of the United States. There is no EU to speak of. It is a US controlled territory whose administration is entrusted to Germany to whose power all the EU nations have bowed. And in this system, countries such as Poland or Lithuania have a special role: to lead the EU in subservience to the USA.

From the latest statements of Putin and Lavrov it is pretty clear that they fully share Victoria Nulands opinion of the EU which they now seem consider as some kind of "geopolitical Conchita Wurst" not worthy of any respect or credibility.

Truly, the EU and its Eurobureaucratic elites have passed a point of no return. If in the past they could still pretend like the EU project was making the EU stronger and that in maintained the sovereignty of its member, now this kind of statement will only be met with a disgusted laughter. As a system the EU has committed suicide and nothing can be further expected of it until it collapses. The riots which have taken place in almost every country of western Europe are a clear sign that most Europeans are either fed-up or desperate or both. In a way, we could say that the EU is run by a Soviet-style nomenklatura which lives in complete detachment from the rest of the European people in a kind of US-built ivory tower high above the common people. Exactly the kind of situation which results in bloody uprisings and revolutions. I am personally convinced that an explosion of anger could happen anytime, especially in the EU countries bordering the Mediterranean. But unlike the Russians, the Europeans prefer their revolution in the warm weather. So maybe next summer?

6 -NATO

The Russians have now officially declared that the NATO expansion into the east was the biggest threat for Russia. And yet I will make the case that NATO is a paper tiger, at least in military terms and that NATO simply does not have what it takes to attack Russia (for my reasons for stating that, please see here). I recently explained that on the blog, and I think that it is worth repeating this once more today:

One more thing: the Russians are most definitely upset about the very aggressive NATO stance because they - correctly - interpret it as a sign of hostility. But, contrary to what a lot of bloggers say, the Russians have no fear of the military threat posed by NATO. Their reaction to the latest NATO moves (new bases and personnel in Central Europe, more spending, etc.) is to denounce it as provocative, but Russian officials all insist that Russia can handle the military threat. As one Russian deputy said "5 rapid reaction diversionary groups is a problem we can solve with one missile". A simplistic but basically correct formula. Putin said the very same thing when he clearly spelled out that in case of a massive conventional attack by "anybody" Russia would engage tactical nukes. In fact, if NATO goes ahead with its stupid plan to deploy forces in Poland and/or the Baltics I expect Russia with withdraw from the IRNF Treaty and deploy advanced successors to the famous RSD-10 (SS-20). As I mentioned before, the decision to double the size of the Russian Airborne Forces and to upgrade the elite 45th Special Designation Airborne Regiment to full brigade-size has already been taken anyway. You could say that Russia preempted the creation of the 10'000 strong NATO force by bringing her own mobile (airborne) forces from 36'000 to 72'000.

This is typical Putin. While NATO announces with fanfare and fireworks that NATO will create a special rapid reaction "spearhead" force of 10'000, Putin quietly doubles the size of the Russian Airborne Forces to 72'000. And, believe me, the battle hardened Russian Airborne Forces are a vastly more capable fighting force then the hedonistic and demotivated multi-national (28 countries) Euroforce of 5'000 NATO is struggling hard to put together. The US commanders fully understand that, and they also know that the real purpose of NATO is not to attack Russia, but to maintain the US control over Europe. As early as in 1949 the first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay, candidly admitted that NATO's true goal was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down" (notice that in the typical russophobic way of the western elites, Russians are considered as the source of the threat even though in 1949 a Georgian was at the helm of the Soviet Union and that Russians had paid a much higher price in repressions then the non-Russian ethnic groups).

Little has changed since, except that with the "Soviet threat" gone NATO had to scramble to find a justification for itself and that it now wants to find it in the "need to protect European democracy from the resurgent Russian Bear". In other words, the ideal situation for NATO is a crisis just one notch below a full-scale war. In case of a real, shooting, war against Russia NATO will be crushed, but as long as NATO can *pretend* it is defending Europe against Russia it is justifying its existence. Hence the silly hunts for Russian ghost submarines, the "interception" of Russian aircraft in international airspace and the constant stream of dramatic statements that NATO will never allow Russia to attack Poland or Lithuania (as if Russia wanted to do that in the first place!).

NATO will continue doing exactly that: pretend like Russia was going to attack Moldova next and that NATO must prevent that. The flow of incendiary and even frankly irresponsible statements will continue, NATO official will continue to deliver stark warnings to Russia with all the required gravitas and the Empire's corporate media will report them as if they had a factual connection to reality. Keeping the Russians out, the German down and the Americans in will be an easy mission since the Russians don't want in, the Germans have totally surrendered along the rest of Europe, and the Americans are already fully in charge.

7 - China

It is amazing for me to see that most observers and analysts have apparently failed to realize that China is now a key actor in the Ukrainian war. Anybody doubting this claim should read the Vineyard of the Saker White Paper written by Larchmonter 445 entitled The Russia-China Double Helix. To make a long story short, China and Russia have decided to keep their own "hands" (their armed forces) and their own "heads" (their political leadership) but to share a common "torso" (their economies, natural and human resources, their industrial and technological know-how and everything else which allows a society to prosper). I call this the Russia-China Strategic Alliance (RCSA) but really it is something even bigger then that - it is a long term decision to share a common fate and to take the risk to become inseparable. An alliance, a treaty, can be broken or withdrawn from. But once your "internal organs" are shared with another entity you are bound together, for better or for worse. What has happened is truly a tectonic geopolitical shift: two empires have decided to join together while remaining sovereign and independent. To my knowledge this has never happened in history and Putin and Xi have already changed the course of history by this monumental decision.

The two countries are ideal symbionts: everything one has the other needs and vice versa. China needs Russian raw materials, especially energy, Russian high technology (aerospace, engines, power plants, etc.) and Russian armaments (everything from the rifle bullet to the ICBM). Russia needs two things from China: money and "Walmart" (consumer goods). Together these two giants not only have immense currency resources but the biggest stash of physical gold on the planet. And, to make things even better, Russia and China are the undisputed leaders of BRICS and SCO. Taken together these two countries are already far more powerful than the AngloZionist Empire and that trend will only grow.



A Russian, a Russian Asian and a Chinese solider
Of course, China will not intervene militarily in the Ukraine. Remember - each country keeps its own "hands" so long as the other is not directly threatened. But in the Pacific Russian and Chinese navies are already training together and even creating joint command centers.

In the Ukraine, China still play a crucial role by providing Russia will all the economic aid needed to overcome the western sanctions and restructure the Russian economy. The Chinese have now officially declared that. It is both ironic and beautiful that after decades of Russian fears that China might try to conquer Siberia (even Solzhenitsyn shared these fears) Putin and Xi have found a much more intelligent solution - Russia will sell Siberia's riches to China while China will protect Russia from the West. Again, this is truly a historic development whose importance cannot be overstated.

Adding up all these vectors

So let's add it all up now. In summary:

The USA now has no other option then to press on their assault on Russia because what is at stake is quite literally the future of the AngloZionist Empire and, therefore, the future of our planet. China uniting with Russia is definitely bad news, but it is too late for the USA to back down now or even to change course. The Americans probably realize that they have fired their best shots already and that the Ukrainian junta is in deep trouble and that the collapse of their Nazi "Banderastan" is just a matter of time. In other words, the Empire is now in a "use them or lose them" situation and "fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian" is now the best option for the US 1%ers.

The Ukrainian Junta members are basically in the same situation as the USA: they must realize that their days are numbered and that their best chance is to do the US bidding and trigger a huge crisis.

The Novorussians are stuck: they have to do whatever the Kremlin wants them to do, hope for the best, prepare for the worst and courageously face anything in the middle.

Russia needs to avoid an open confrontation with the West for as long as possible.

The EU will remain as irrelevant and pathetic as ever.

NATO will play a dangerous game of brinkmanship trying to create as much tensions as possible without triggering an actual conflict.

China will do whatever it takes to protect Russia from the economic war waged against her.

Conclusions

From the above I conclude that unless some major development substantially alters the current dynamic the resulting vector clearly points at the inevitability of a full-scale war between Russia and the Ukraine along the scenario outlined above ("A full scale war between Russia and the Ukraine"). There is no reason whatsoever to expect the US, the Nazi junta, NATO or the EU to begin acting in a responsible or constructive manner. For these reasons, Russia will be alone in trying to avoid an intervention the Donbass and the inevitable war with the Ukraine following it. The best way for Russia to achieve this goal is to arm Novorussia to the teeth, to provide much more humanitarian support then now, to try re-launch as much of the Novorussian economy as possible (preferably by investments and contracts, not just grants) and generally help to make Novorussia as viable as possible under the current conditions. If the Novorussian could repeat their amazing feat once more and repel or, even better, deter the future Ukrainian attack this would be a crushing defeat not only for the junta in Kiev, but also for all its supporters in the AngloZionist Empire. The "equation" is simple: if Novorussia can stand up to the Ukrainians and Russia is not forced to intervene the Nazi regime in Kiev is finished along with the entire Neocon plan against Russia. If Russia is forced to intervene, Novorussia will be saved and the junta finished, but the Neocons plan will have succeeded and Russia will suffer a major geostrategic setback

Russia desperately needs more time and I expect the Russian diplomacy to try every possible delaying tactic imaginable to buy as much time as possible before the inevitable Ukrainian attack on Novorussia. I am even willing to consider that the recent sale (really, a gift) of coal to Kiev might be such a delaying tactic, I don't know. What is clear for me that most of these delaying tactics will look like "appeasement" to the external observer and that, in the end, our perception of these moves will depend on our assumptions and, basically, our take on the person of Vladimir Putin. I might be wrong, but I personally trust him and short of very strong evidence I will never believe that he will "sell out" Novorussia or anybody else in the Ukraine. Not only do I believe that he is way too smart to do such a stupid and self-defeating thing, but I have also come to the conclusion that he is a highly principled person who will never betray the people he took an oath to defend.

My very tentative "guesstimates" for 2015:

2014 has been a historic year and so will be 2015, if only because 2014 set a great deal of things in motion, but resolved none of them. I have come to the conclusion that there is a 80% chance of a massive Ukrainian attack on Novorussia next year, probably in the first part of the year. My best guesstimate is that Novorussia will probably be able to beat back this attack, albeit with great effort and big losses. The Russian economy will continue to suffer and appear to be sinking for the next six months or so at which point it will gradually start reversing that trend. The EU economy will enter into full and deep recession resulting in widespread social unrest. As for the USA, they probably will be able to pretend like nothing big, not big disaster, is happening, if only thanks to the money printing machine and the best propaganda machine in history. What the US will be unable to do is to prevent the gradual but inexorable de-dollarization of more and more of the world economy, lead by China and Russia. The true and final collapse of the AngloZionist Empire is inevitable, but not for the next couple of years.

I wish you all the very best for 2015 and, above all, I wish you peace.

May God protect us all from war!

The Saker



--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Thursday, January 1, 2015 10:01 PM

THGRRI


(Reuters) - A Russian court found two protest leaders guilty of inciting mass riots on Thursday in a case that the opposition sees as part of a clampdown on President Vladimir Putin's foes while all eyes are on Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/24/us-russia-opposition-sentenc
e-idUSKBN0FT13L20140724



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Thursday, January 1, 2015 10:09 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Tell me, THUGR, what is the USA response to protest?








YOU CAN'T BUILD A SOCIETY ON THAT.
Neither here, nor in Russia.
You can cow people and brutalize people for so long, but if they don't have a common cause, a common belief, a common ethic they will not gel into a functioning society.

How can I possibly be any clearer?


THIS won't work to create a society

NOR WILL THIS

NOR THIS




In the meantime, please read the article that I posted (above) by a (Russian?) ex-military analyst currently living in FL, from what I understand.


--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 9:02 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

This is an interesting read. It's very long, because it's an analysis of all the events around Ukraine in 2014 and a look ahead.

I don't agree with all of it, but it's by an (Russian?) ex-military analyst who currently lives in Florida, and I found his perspective interesting. But since it's so long, I've snipped the parts that I thought were the most interesting:


I read as far as the first paragraph. I learned that the Ukrainian government are 'Nazis', but they still have to be 'told' to invade separatist-held parts of Ukraine by the USA and NATO.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 11:28 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Then you've managed not to learn anything at all, which is too bad because despite the parts that I disagreed with I thought that the Saker really tried to perform an objective analysis, at least from his military standpoint and Russian(?) background. It's not often that I get to read something from a viewpoint that is 180 degrees away from what I can find anywhere in the western press, and with what seems to me to be a detailed wealth of military knowledge*. (One of the points he makes is that Russia would tear through NATO as if it were wet tissue paper, which is not an assessment commonly found in western press.)

Can't you manage to suspend your bias long enough to read something interesting from the "other side"? If you can't, you'll remain in your bubble for your entire life, and I'm sure you don't want that, being so objective and fact-driven and all!


* I used to snicker at the idea of military academies. I thought that after learning how to march in step and shoot and clean a gun and run obstacle courses, anything else was just an excuse for some people to play with little tanks/ battleships on maps. But having watched how al Qaida bumbled its way through events, and how ISIS took so much territory in such a short time, I realized that (1) the heads of ISIS clearly had military command training and experience and (2) academic and problem-solving military training makes a difference. I may not know what they teach in military academies, but I can tell that those who're trained definitely do a lot better than those who aren't. It would be wise to learn from their insight.

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You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 12:30 PM

THGRRI


SIGNYM you are incapable of seeing anything for what it really is. In this country it is your right to protest. It is also the right of others to drive down the street or do business. The police are out there to protect both groups’ rights. So move off the road to the sidewalk and continue on with your protest, let the traffic pass by and businesses do business. It is when the protesters refuse to respect the rights of others (the rights of others) that the police are forced to respond. Mace is better than bullets. It keeps the two groups from making physical contact, the police and the protesters and leaves no long term damage.

I could go on but as I said, you are incapable of seeing anything for what it really is. Very sad



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Friday, January 2, 2015 1:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


If you want to start a new topic, start a new thread

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Friday, January 2, 2015 3:15 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If you want to start a new topic, start a new thread



Oh my god. You can't even remember what you posted two posts ago. I was responding to that. As for what I post in a particular threat you have zero control over that and how I chose to respond to what you write in these threads.

Bombs and guns build nations.


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