REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Crackin'

POSTED BY: WISHIMAY
UPDATED: Tuesday, August 1, 2017 08:07
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Friday, June 2, 2017 6:23 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


When it eventually breaks free from the continent, the resulting iceberg will measure 31,000 square miles, represent 10 percent of the ice shelf’s original mass and be larger than the state of Rhode Island.

https://frontier.yahoo.com/news/massive-crack-antarctic-ice-shelf-grow
s-11-miles-6-days-potentially-creating-worlds-largest-iceberg-215808971.html


Ok, I'm not that I'm saying this iceberg will effect much, but we were discussing mass tragedy/events and taking bets on the next "big one"

So the likeliest candidates are:

Yellowstone going boom
There is a 10% chance the Yellowstone Supervolcano could blow sometime in the next 80 years; and while that’s a pretty slim chance, the event would devastate humanity. Yellowstone is not the only supervolcano that poses a threat to the planet. There’s also Mount Vesuvius in Campagnia, Italy, and Popocatépetl near Mexico City. Scientists put the risk of eruption at the other sites in the next 80 yea at 5%-10%.



California experiencing a large earthquake
A new study by NASA has revealed with 99.9% certainty that a magnitude 5.0 earthquake will hit the city of 3.9 million people before the summer of 2018.



Meteor taking out one or more countries
(On average, Earth is hit once a year by elephant-sized asteroids, while bigger asteroids measuring 25ft across hit around every four years.
These are rarely witnessed as they either burn up in the atmosphere or land in the sea.
Larger asteroids which are the size of a six-storey building hit Earth around twice a century.)


Large scale plague or pandemic
(Larry Brilliant discussed this issue during a 2006 TED talk. In the talk, he said that he had done a study with top epidemiologists. In that study, 90% of them said they thought there would be a pandemic within their children’s or grandchildren’s lifetimes)


Nuclear incident
(Various experts estimate the chances of a nuclear detonation in the next 10 years at somewhere between 10 and 30 percent.)


Magnetic pole reversal
(Previously, researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per century, but the new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per decade, or 10 times faster than thought. As such, rather than the full flip occurring in about 2,000 years, as was predicted, the new data suggest it could happen sooner.)



Others?


I vote for Earthquake, Hubbs votes for Plague, and the kiddo votes for a Nuclear event.




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Friday, June 2, 2017 6:40 PM

6STRINGJOKER


I'm sure Putin or Trump or the Patriarchy will get us all before any of that happens.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 6:54 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


This sounds like fun!

I looked into Yellowstone a while ago, and I couldn't find any evidence that geologists had found any suervolcano activity left. So, I'm voting



California experiencing a large earthquake
not a question of if, but when


Meteor taking out one or more countries
mmm ... nah ... most of them already collided a long time ago ... the earth and the other planets have been in stable orbits and have already cleared a path


Large scale plague or pandemic
you never know, but what kind of death rate are we talking about? in the next decade, I'm not seeing a pandemic with a 10% death rate


Nuclear incident
like Fukushima? (which is not over)


Magnetic pole reversal
mmm ... not before any of the other stuff





ANOTHER thing to consider would be a massive coronal ejection from the sun.

Anyway, given everything, I think the thing that will happen first will either be a reawakening to the disaster that is Fukushima, or a major CA earthquake.









Originally posted by G: "I coined the slogan "We Suck!"© many years ago." G is an avowed Putin-loving, pro-Russian, anti-American troll.
You have a very treasonous view of how justice in the US should work, THUGGER. In fact, you have many other treasonous views as well. You hate the election process and want to void it, you really dislike freedom of speech and want to lock people up who pract

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Friday, June 2, 2017 7:31 PM

OONJERAH


Quote 1KIKI, "ANOTHER thing to consider would be a massive coronal
ejection from the sun.

Anyway, given everything, I think the thing that will happen first
will either be a reawakening to the disaster that is Fukushima, or
a major CA earthquake."

"a massive coronal ejection from the sun"

I've no clue how often that happens.
From the surface of the Sun, the Earth is a barely visible speck. So
the chance of hitting it is ... Super slim & a bit higher than None.

Otoh, California, my home, is a massive network of fault lines.
I dunno how we're still here. ... Maybe it's like a spider web:
when you tug 1 strand, they all move a little bit.


... oooOO}{OOooo ...

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Friday, June 2, 2017 7:36 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:




ANOTHER thing to consider would be a massive coronal ejection from the sun.




Yeah, it probably should be on the list, but I always thought it would be pretty unlikely, as it would need to be pretty darn powerful and just dead-on to do major damage.

"According to physicist Pete Riley, whose conclusion NASA has quoted on its website, the probability that a coronal mass ejection (CME) the size of the Carrington Event will hit Earth is 12% per decade"

12% IS actually higher than most of these, including the volcano at 10%, just FYI.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 7:44 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:



I've no clue how often that happens.
From the surface of the Sun, the Earth is a barely visible speck. So
the chance of hitting it is ... Super slim & a bit higher than None.



And yet we had the Carrington Flare in 1859 and a potentially bad one just two years ago. I think I read recently that the sun has been extra quite lately, so that's good.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 7:48 PM

OONJERAH



" 12% per decade" means we have gotten one every 8 years.
Three so far in this century. hmmmm.


... oooOO}{OOooo ...

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Friday, June 2, 2017 8:08 PM

OONJERAH


List of large volcanic eruptions in the 21st century
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_in_the_
21st_century


According to this chart, we're averaging almost 4 per year.
So the volcanos have got it all over the MCEs.

I guess Mt. St. Helens in OR is the closest one to me. It erupted
quite noticeably in 1980. But "The 2004–08 volcanic activity of
Mount St. Helens has been documented as a continuous eruption with
a gradual extrusion of magma at the Mount St. Helens volcano."

It's just pushing magma up into its cone?



... oooOO}{OOooo ...

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Friday, June 2, 2017 8:11 PM

6STRINGJOKER


If we're going to be serious, my vote is for a plague.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 8:25 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Recently I saw a good documentary on the Chelyabinsk meteor form 2013. Much talk about the actual meteor, how it was more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan, and also that we ( well, Russians ) lucked out, because the angle of the entry was so shallow, much of the energy got deflected up and away , instead of directly downward. If the path had been closer to 90 degrees to the ground, ...really really bad news.

But what most didn't know is that about the same time as that explosion, another meteor was passing very close as well. We narrowly missed a cosmic 1-2 punch, as it were.

Been thinking about how devastating it'd be if we had a Tunguska level impact, which we're told occurs once very 100 years.

Was Chelyabinsk this century's meteor ? Is there another one, on its way in our life time ? Or might it be 400 or more years ? Or a few thousand ?


Been thinking about meteors for a while now. Hope I don't see a big one hit.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 8:25 PM

OONJERAH



    ^OK, Jack. But when was our last actual plague?

    ^OK, AU. Here was the big hit before the Chelyabinsk big hit.

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30jun_tungu
ska


I never knew about those big meteor hits!! Now I can have nightmares.


... oooOO}{OOooo ...

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Friday, June 2, 2017 8:35 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by Oonjerah:

    ^OK, Jack. But when was our last actual plague?




Aids? Really slow plague though. And we're much better at slowing or containing since the days of bubonic and the like.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 8:59 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by Oonjerah:

^OK, AU. Here was the big hit before the Chelyabinsk big hit.

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30jun_tungu
ska


I never knew about those big meteor hits!! Now I can have nightmares.




I did mention the Tunguska impact, which is where I also referenced the 100 year interval.

There was also a suggested impact in Brazil, back in 1930...

1930 Curuçá River event

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_Curu%C3%A7%C3%A1_River_event#Overvi
ew



* ETA Look at Tunguska on the map. Now imagine what would have happened if the impact had come a couple of hours later. Very possible the epicenter would have been Moscow, not some wasteland out in Siberia. Imagine the course of history had Moscow been leveled.


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Friday, June 2, 2017 9:01 PM

THGRRI

May the Good Lord take a liking to you... but not too soon!


What vision of doom made Hawking seek a faster Earth exit plan?

The big question is why Hawking has revised his previous estimate, voiced just last year, that we have 1000 years to enact an escape plan. Why bring the timeframe forward to within a single human lifetime?

The highest rating of the “catastrophometer” that science writer David Darling and I devised for our book Megacatastrophes! Nine Strange Ways the World Could End was the danger of a pandemic – which scored 7.5 out of 10 in terms of likelihood. The rise of antibiotic-resistant microbes and the Ebola outbreak that started in 2014 in west Africa underline the threat.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2130636-what-vision-of-doom-made-
hawking-seek-a-faster-earth-exit-plan
/






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Friday, June 2, 2017 9:02 PM

OONJERAH


Quote:

Originally posted by Wishimay:
Aids? Really slow plague though. And we're much better at slowing or containing since the days of bubonic and the like.



Ebola, MRSA, antibiotic resistant flu strains, etc.

OK, Wishi; this is too much reality for me. Back to fantasy-game-land.

... If I die, will one of you come over here and feed my cats?


... oooOO}{OOooo ...

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Friday, June 2, 2017 10:17 PM

6STRINGJOKER


Quote:

Originally posted by Oonjerah:
Ebola, MRSA, antibiotic resistant flu strains, etc.



Yeah... It's when you got your guard down that you get knocked down from behind. We take a lot of things for granted today, even those of us with really bad health insurance.

I try not to even read about diseases and the like and do my best to pretend they don't exist. Some people are scared of spiders and snakes. My nightmares can't be seen without a microscope.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 10:19 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

... If I die, will one of you come over here and feed my cats?
Sure. Just let somebody know where ...




Originally posted by G: "I coined the slogan "We Suck!"© many years ago." G is an avowed Putin-loving, pro-Russian, anti-American troll.
You have a very treasonous view of how justice in the US should work, THUGGER. In fact, you have many other treasonous views as well. You hate the election process and want to void it.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 11:32 PM

BRENDA


I would say a massive earthquake hitting California.

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Friday, June 2, 2017 11:51 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by Oonjerah:
MRSA,



... If I die, will one of you come over here and feed my cats?




Not sure I believe that MRSA just popped up a few decades ago. Doesn't really make sense to me. My cousin had a battle with it last year, had a big (2 cm) hole in her arm. She works at an ol' folks home, BTW.

Unfortunately, I think you best make other arrangements fer da furries, as me feeding them would also kill me. Maybe set something up with a no-kill shelter? Have you no relatives ready to scavenge your earthly remains? That's pretty much a sport around here...


Are you planning an imminent departure? o.O

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Friday, June 9, 2017 8:24 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


https://frontier.yahoo.com/news/1-000-foot-wide-asteroids-175011333.ht
ml


They were able to work out the orbits of these fireballs, and found 113 of them show “common characteristics and form together a well-defined orbital structure, which we call new branch.”


This branch was found to contain at least two asteroids with diameters of between 650 and 980 feet. An impact from an asteroid of this size would cause a huge amount of damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.

As well as the two large asteroids, the team also found the branch likely contains “numerous” undiscovered objects that are at least 30 feet wide. “Since asteroids of sizes of tens to hundreds of meters pose a threat to the ground, even if they are intrinsically weak, impact hazard increases significantly when the Earth encounters the Taurids new branch every few years,” the scientists wrote.

The branch is not new. It has been passing by Earth every few years, ever since it formed around 1,000 years ago. However, now that we know it exists, the researchers say we need to carry out further studies to better understand “this real source of potentially hazardous objects.”

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Thursday, June 22, 2017 2:57 AM

OONJERAH


An asteroid is definitely going to hit the Earth, expert warns
http://bgr.com/2017/06/21/asteroid-news-near-earth-impact/

Yes, asteroids will (continue to) hit the Earth.

In the western hemisphere, heavily populated areas must be less
than 1% of the area.

The eastern hemisphere contains Africa, Asia, Australia & Europe.
I can't do the math impromptu-like. But the East does have far
more people per square mile than we do in the west. I'll guess
populated areas are at least 3% of the Earth's eastern surface.

Asteroid Impacts: 10 Biggest Known Hits
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/13/130214-biggest-asteroi
d-impacts-meteorites-space-2012da14
/

I feel we are more likely to wipe ourselves out than be
Astroid-mash.

Still, I think a plague is even more likely to do us in.



I notice I'm very inconsistent on this topic.
... oooOO}{OOooo ...

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Monday, July 31, 2017 9:35 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


An asteroid is doing a flyby, only couple thousand miles away on October 12. 12-40 meters, the one in Russia was 20.

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Tuesday, August 1, 2017 8:07 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



We're going to see a Tunguska like impact before too long. Had the rotation of the Earth been just a bit off from when that hit, Moscow, and not some barren waste land in Siberia, would have been leveled. Think of how humanity's history would have changed if 1908 Moscow was suddenly wiped off the face of the Earth. How would that have changed the events in Europe ?



Oh, and btw , Oonjerah ?...



Quote:



I guess Mt. St. Helens in OR is the closest one to me. It erupted
quite noticeably in 1980




That'd be in Washington, not Oregon.

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