REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Russia moves for a second invasion of Ukraine

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Monday, January 7, 2019 07:48
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Thursday, January 3, 2019 9:16 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


http://radiolemberg.com/ua-articles/ua-allarticles/almost-100-000-russ
ian-troops-poised-for-offensive-against-ukraine


What with Trump sitting with his thumb up his ass seems like a good time for Vlad to make another tiny chess move.

Michael MacKay, Radio Lemberg, 02.01.2019

What is certain is that the Russian Federation is ready to launch an offensive against Ukraine and Putin will “pull the trigger” on a massive invasion if he believes other Western democracies will not come to the defence of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s 30-day state of martial law has ended but the threat of a military offensive by the Russian Federation hasn’t. By the start of 2019, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have increased troops levels near the borders and “lines of control” of Ukraine to nearly 100,000. These Russian soldiers are not for defence but poised to attack Ukraine.

The press service of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reports that 28 Russian army battalion-scale tactical groups are now in the Russian Federation near the international border with Ukraine and also on Ukraine’s territory of Crimea which is temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation. The total number of service members of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in these areas is estimated to be around 53,000.

The Russian Federation’s invasion-occupation force in Donbas in eastern Ukraine is made up of Russian regular troops, mercenaries, contract soldiers from private military companies, and local auxiliaries. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates as many as 45,000 combatants loyal to the Russian Federation are in Donbas, with about 11,000 of that number made up of Russian regular troops. There are known to be over 1,000 military vehicles in the Russian occupied zone of Donbas, amongst which are more tanks than Germany, France and the United Kingdom combined possess.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Stepan Poltorak presented the information that the Russian Federation has deployed a powerful military force adjacent to Ukrainian international borders and Ukrainian administrative boundaries with Crimea and part of Donbas. It is Minister Poltarak’s belief that this is a sign that the Russian Federation in not giving up on its attempts to seize all of Ukraine.

Russian forces attacked three Ukrainian Navy vessels on 25 November 2018. The Russians rammed the boats as they were attempting a peaceful and normal passage from Odesa, Ukraine to Mariupol, Ukraine through the Kerch Strait. The Russian Federation committed this act of war without warning and for no reason. The three Ukrainian Navy boats were pirated by the Russians, and 24 Ukrainian Navy sailors were taken hostage.

After this open act of war, Ukraine adopted a war state legal regime in 10 oblasts (regions) adjacent to the Russian aggressors, to last for a 30-day period. Martial law allowed Ukraine to carry out a partial mobilization, test its readiness to face a wider war, and take measures to deter the anticipated Russian offensive.

The 30-day period of the war state legal framework has expired, martial law has ended, and no Russian offensive has taken place. But the danger from the Russian aggressor remains. Kremlin anti-Ukrainian hate propaganda has reached a frenzied level not seen since the 2014-15 peak of fighting in the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fake news like predicting a “Ukrainian chemical attack” is spread by Kremlin information warriors and amplified by social media and inattentive Western news media. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are staging large numbers of troops and equipment suitable for offensive close to the borders of Ukraine.

53,000 Russian soldiers are near the Ukraine-Russian Federation border and in Crimea, Ukraine (Russian-occupied) ready to launch an offensive. As many as 45,000 more are in Donbas, Ukraine (Russian-occupied) along with a formidable tank army. The Russians will try to make a “provocation” out of any event to spark a large military offensive against Ukraine whose objective will be to annihilate the country. The Putin regime does not care if this “provocation” is the granting of a tomos of autocephaly to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine or the conduct of presidential elections in Ukraine or something unanticipated. What is certain is that the Russian Federation is ready to launch an offensive against Ukraine and Putin will “pull the trigger” on a massive invasion if he believes other Western democracies will not come to the defence of Ukraine.

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Thursday, January 3, 2019 10:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


File this under "not my problem".

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, January 3, 2019 11:05 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
File this under "not my problem".

You picked Trump, so it is your problem. Expect your man to handle your problem: Is Russia about to invade Ukraine again? That may depend on Trump.

It has been five weeks since Russia assaulted Ukrainian Navy ships that were passing through international waters near the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Though the world’s attention has moved on, Russian forces have not: On the contrary, they are massed near Crimea’s border with eastern Ukraine, prompting warnings from the Ukrainian government as well as independent observers that the regime of Russian President Vladi­mir Putin may be planning a new attack on the country. Rather than await the Russians’ next move, the Trump administration should be working with allies to actively deter further aggression.

It could well be that Mr. Putin can accomplish his aims simply by raising the level of tension and by showing he can strangle Ukrainian ports with impunity. But whatever his intentions, the United States and its NATO allies should be acting to punish Mr. Putin for his coast guard’s actions in the Kerch Strait and to deter an escalation. There are a number of steps that could be taken, BY MR. TRUMP, ranging from dispatching warships to the Black Sea, with a stop in the Ukrainian port of Odessa, to stationing NATO or European Union observers in eastern Ukraine. There have, as yet, been no sanctions against Russia specifically linked to its seizure of the Kerch Strait; there should be.

Mr. Trump still aspires to friendly relations with Mr. Putin. That won’t be possible if the Russian ruler initiates more aggression against Ukraine or other neighbors. It is consequently in Mr. Trump’s interest to make clear to Moscow that any further attacks will trigger a strong response from the United States.

More at www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/is-russia-about-to-inv
ade-ukraine-again-that-may-depend-on-trump/2018/12/30/7cc5fd42-0ad8-11e9-88e3-989a3e456820_story.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, January 3, 2019 3:54 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
File this under "not my problem".

You picked Trump, so it is your problem. Expect your man to handle your problem: Is Russia about to invade Ukraine again? That may depend on Trump.

It has been five weeks since Russia assaulted Ukrainian Navy ships that were passing through international waters near the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Though the world’s attention has moved on, Russian forces have not: On the contrary, they are massed near Crimea’s border with eastern Ukraine, prompting warnings from the Ukrainian government as well as independent observers that the regime of Russian President Vladi­mir Putin may be planning a new attack on the country. Rather than await the Russians’ next move, the Trump administration should be working with allies to actively deter further aggression.

It could well be that Mr. Putin can accomplish his aims simply by raising the level of tension and by showing he can strangle Ukrainian ports with impunity. But whatever his intentions, the United States and its NATO allies should be acting to punish Mr. Putin for his coast guard’s actions in the Kerch Strait and to deter an escalation. There are a number of steps that could be taken, BY MR. TRUMP, ranging from dispatching warships to the Black Sea, with a stop in the Ukrainian port of Odessa, to stationing NATO or European Union observers in eastern Ukraine. There have, as yet, been no sanctions against Russia specifically linked to its seizure of the Kerch Strait; there should be.

Mr. Trump still aspires to friendly relations with Mr. Putin. That won’t be possible if the Russian ruler initiates more aggression against Ukraine or other neighbors. It is consequently in Mr. Trump’s interest to make clear to Moscow that any further attacks will trigger a strong response from the United States.

More at www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/is-russia-about-to-inv
ade-ukraine-again-that-may-depend-on-trump/2018/12/30/7cc5fd42-0ad8-11e9-88e3-989a3e456820_story.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



Stupid people can't or won't embrace the whole picture second, and jack is stupid people. A good amount of the Trumpets are. Hey, are we officially calling jack snowflake now?

T



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Thursday, January 3, 2019 4:38 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by THG:

Stupid people can't or won't embrace the whole picture second, and jack is stupid people. A good amount of the Trumpets are. Hey, are we officially calling jack snowflake now?

Maybe I was bad to call him a name. But I’ve seen a strong connection between a person’s politics and their lives. There are the apathetic Democrats who show up once every 4 to 8 to 12 years to vote because they weren’t aware there was an election. Or they were busy. Or "their vote doesn't count." They are similarly apathetic and disorganized in their lives, at work, with their family.

Then there are the Trump voters. I just now checked on one. Not going so well. He wasn’t careful about voting for a crook. Not surprising because he is also a crook:
www.harriscountyso.org/JailInfo/HCSO_FindSomeoneInJail.aspx
CHARGE THEFT >=2,500 <30,000
COURT 176 COURT DATE 01/29/2019

Then there are the famous Republicans:
"The Ugly Nihilism of Jerry Falwell Jr.’s Comments About Why It Doesn’t Matter if Trump Is Immoral"
https://slate.com/human-interest/2019/01/jerry-falwell-jr-trump-interv
iew.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, January 3, 2019 8:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
File this under "not my problem".

You picked Trump, so it is your problem. Expect your man to handle your problem: Is Russia about to invade Ukraine again? That may depend on Trump.



Ukraine is not my problem. It wouldn't be my problem if Hillary were president either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:20 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
File this under "not my problem".

You picked Trump, so it is your problem. Expect your man to handle your problem: Is Russia about to invade Ukraine again? That may depend on Trump.



Ukraine is not my problem. It wouldn't be my problem if Hillary were president either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

That is the Trump slogan "America First". He, or maybe even you, is only interested in the countries that have attracted his whimsical interest. For Trump, North Korea and Iran did that for a while and will again, until another shiny object gets his attention. (He is a distracted cat chasing a laser pointer.)



I quoted about how American foreign policy doesn't work well in the outside world because of the odd thinking going on inside the foreign policy establishment: Chapter 4. "Selling A Failing Foreign Policy" from The Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy, 2018
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61954&mid=10673
69#1067369


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:22 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Anybody remember the days when the Democrats were the party that was against war?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:44 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Anybody remember the days when the Democrats were the party that was against war?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Yes, back when George McGovern was the Presidential candidate and the Vietnam War was still running, but that tore the Democratic party in two. Why? Because your average American who has not gone to war (or the average soldier who did go to war but never saw anyone they killed up-close and real personal) wants war, they just don't want to personally go to war. That is why those average Americans don't seem to mind that Congress has not voted a declaration of war since 1942. That's why America built tens of thousands of H-bombs when a thousand would have been more than enough. Trump is building more, because you can't have too many shiny H-bombs. Average Americans are excited by the idea of killing, if they don't have to be there close enough to be splashed by blood when it happens. Politicians from both parties are well aware of how average Americans react to War. Come to think of it, War is like meat. More people would be anti-war vegetarians if they had to kill and butcher all their food and all their enemies.

The Trump Administration’s push for more nuclear weapons is part of a perilous global drive to miniaturize and modernize devices that already promise annihilation.
www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-growing-dangers-of-the-new-nuclea
r-arms-race


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


So what you're saying is that the Democratic party sold out?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 9:58 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So what you're saying is that the Democratic party sold out?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Did you not understand that Democrat George McGovern lost in a huge landslide to Vietnam war-monger Nixon? And this after a decade of American failure in Vietnam? Americans learn slo-o-o-o-w-ly and every successful politician knows the majority of voters are slow witted. The majority of voting Americans want war. Remember after 9/11? It was like Pearl Harbor, except all the Japanese attackers died, excluding Emperor Hirohito. All the terrorists died, excluding Osama bin Laden, but 90% of Americans wanted a war. What Bush did next made zero practical sense, but perfect political sense because the majority of voters were behind him in the stupidest American wars ever fought, excluding Vietnam. The majority of politicians in both parties followed the strong preferences of the majority of voters.
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/11/the-fifty-first-state/302
612
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, January 4, 2019 10:06 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


So what you're saying is that the Democratic Party sold out?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 11:26 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So what you're saying is that the Democratic Party sold out?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

No! The people who have sold their votes in exchange for nothing are the average American voters, not the politicians. (Side note: the Top 1% know exactly what they want and they untiringly and clearly communicate that very short and simple list to Congress, which is why they get it, while the lower 50% don't get too many of their complex, difficult requests.) Average Americans don't get what they want from Congress because the majority of voting Americans both want far too much and yet don't know what they want in detail, except when it is war. That they get from both parties and the President. The voters don't know what they want about Ukraine, so they will get whatever Trump feels like dishing up.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, January 4, 2019 12:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Michael MacKay, Radio Lemberg, 02.01.2019


Radio Lemberg. "Lemberg" is the German name for Lviv, AKA Lvov, AKA Lwow.

Lviv is the largest city in western Ukraine,

So, some Ukrainian radio is telling us ... AGAIN ... that Russia is going to "invade"?? I've been hearing about that anticipated "massive invasion" since 2014.

This wouldn't have anything to do with the upcoming elections in March, and Poroshenko having something like an 8% approval rating, would it?




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Friday, January 4, 2019 4:52 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

This wouldn't have anything to do with the upcoming elections in March, and Poroshenko having something like an 8% approval rating, would it?

Signym, do you sense a conspiracy where Poroshenko, to improve his approval rating, orders Ukraine ships to capture Russian ships?
Or was it Putin, to improve his ratings, orders Russian ships to capture Ukraine ships?
It is so hard to understand who did what to who . . . Or maybe it is not hard:
Russia Seizes Ukraine Ships, Captures Two Dozen Sailors



The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, January 4, 2019 5:07 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Michael MacKay, Radio Lemberg, 02.01.2019


Radio Lemberg. "Lemberg" is the German name for Lviv, AKA Lvov, AKA Lwow.

Lviv is the largest city in western Ukraine,

So, some Ukrainian radio is telling us ... AGAIN ... that Russia is going to "invade"?? I've been hearing about that anticipated "massive invasion" since 2014.

This wouldn't have anything to do with the upcoming elections in March, and Poroshenko having something like an 8% approval rating, would it?




You sure do know a lot about that part of the world.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So what you're saying is that the Democratic Party sold out?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

No! The people who have sold their votes in exchange for nothing are the average American voters, not the politicians. (Side note: the Top 1% know exactly what they want and they untiringly and clearly communicate that very short and simple list to Congress, which is why they get it, while the lower 50% don't get too many of their complex, difficult requests.) Average Americans don't get what they want from Congress because the majority of voting Americans both want far too much and yet don't know what they want in detail, except when it is war. That they get from both parties and the President. The voters don't know what they want about Ukraine, so they will get whatever Trump feels like dishing up.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



So what you're saying is that after the Democrats lost the presidential bid in 1972, they sold their principals for votes?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:55 PM

REAVERFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Michael MacKay, Radio Lemberg, 02.01.2019


Radio Lemberg. "Lemberg" is the German name for Lviv, AKA Lvov, AKA Lwow.

Lviv is the largest city in western Ukraine,

So, some Ukrainian radio is telling us ... AGAIN ... that Russia is going to "invade"?? I've been hearing about that anticipated "massive invasion" since 2014.

This wouldn't have anything to do with the upcoming elections in March, and Poroshenko having something like an 8% approval rating, would it?




You sure do know a lot about that part of the world.

He lives close enough to hear the station on his home radio. St. Petersburg isn't really that far away.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 8:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


That's at least the second occasion where you've referred to Sigs as a man.

Perhaps you would feel it misogynistic to talk to her the way you do if you realized she was a woman?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 9:18 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

This wouldn't have anything to do with the upcoming elections in March, and Poroshenko having something like an 8% approval rating, would it?- SIGNY

You sure do know a lot about that part of the world.-

I know a lot more about Afghanistan and Brazil than you do, too. It doesn't mean I live there.

Or, as the old saying goes ..."Don't mistake your ignorance for my intelligence".



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Friday, January 4, 2019 9:39 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Signym, do you sense a conspiracy where Poroshenko, to improve his approval rating, orders Ukraine ships to capture Russian ships?

The Sea of Azov it the shallowest sea in the world (only 2-45 feet). In addition, the Russians have built a bridge across the narrow straight which "pinches off" the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea. So navigating the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait requires up-to-date navigational information. Apparently Ukrainian ships have been accepting Russian navigators on their ships until recently, when they decided not to.

There IS an agreement (2003) on the use of the Sea of Azov between Russia and Ukraine, which Ukraine wants to break. The best description I can find is here https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201811211070007785-sea-azov-dispute/

It seems to me as if Russia is imposing conditions on Ukrainian ships that aren't in the agreement.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Saturday, January 5, 2019 2:02 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I know a lot more about Afghanistan and Brazil than you do, too. It doesn't mean I live there.
Or, as the old saying goes ..."Don't mistake your ignorance for my intelligence".



Did I say you lived there? You make the dumbest assumptions.

Btw - That's a pretty lame saying - did you just make it up? Or is it Russian?

Let me try, "Don't mistake knowledge for intelligence" ? Seems more appropriate in this case.

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Saturday, January 5, 2019 8:41 AM

REAVERFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

This wouldn't have anything to do with the upcoming elections in March, and Poroshenko having something like an 8% approval rating, would it?- SIGNY

You sure do know a lot about that part of the world.-

I know a lot more about Afghanistan and Brazil than you do, too. It doesn't mean I live there.


No, you don't. You only know what your Russian boss tells you to know.

Every talking point exactly in line with what the Russian troll army is saying all over the internet, word for word.


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Saturday, January 5, 2019 10:48 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

. You only know what your Russian boss tells you to know.
- REAVERSHIT

How would you know? The only way that you could possibly know this for sure was if you were getting copies of instructions. Is it possible that YOU'RE in someone's troll army?

In any case, whenever your post like this REAVERSHIT (which is all the time) makes me realize that I posted an argument for which you have no rational counterpoint. That's why you resort to libel ...

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Saturday, January 5, 2019 10:53 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I know a lot more about Afghanistan and Brazil than you do, too. It doesn't mean I live there.- SIGNY

Or, as the old saying goes ..."Don't mistake your ignorance for my intelligence".- GSTRING

Did I say you lived there?- GSTRING

No, you insinuated it. Then you double down on your libel right here ...

Quote:

Btw - That's a pretty lame saying - did you just make it up? Or is it Russian?


In any case, you got caught posting an opinion piece from a highly biased source because it said what you wanted to hear. But you didn't bother to even check out the source, so if you want to talk about lame ....

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Saturday, January 5, 2019 11:06 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


American think tank predicts Putin will escalate war in Ukraine
By Askold Krushelnycky. Updated Jan. 4 at 8:00 pm

www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/american-think-tank-predicts-putin-w
ill-escalate-war-in-ukraine.html


Since Russia’s naval aggression in the Kerch Strait – when its ships rammed, shelled, and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels on Nov. 25 – Kyiv has warned that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate his war against the country.

American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), has endorsed that warning in a detailed assessment that has been widely-read by American and other countries’ political and military decision-makers and has added urgency to the calls for more Western support for Ukraine.
http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2018/12/russia-in-review-russia-poised
-to.html

http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2018/12/russias-pressure-points-on-ukr
aine.html

http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2018/12/warning-update-russian-prepara
tions-for.html


The Kyiv Post spoke to Catherine Harris, an expert in Russian global campaigns to undermine the West. She is one of the three authors of the “Russia Poised to Escalate Ukraine Campaign” report who said the danger signals have only grown since the assessment was first published on Dec. 11.

The Kremlin still holds 24 Ukrainian navy sailors they captured, including three who were wounded by shellfire. It was the first time the Russian military openly attacked Ukrainian forces. Previously, despite overwhelming evidence, Moscow denied its regular forces had been involved in the fighting in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.

The report drew on information, corroborated by satellite surveillance and on-the-ground witnesses of a huge Russian military buildup, involving troops, armor and planes on the border with Ukraine and in occupied Crimea.

Key points

A summary of the report, whose other authors were Mason Clark and Nicole Geis, made these key points:

1) Russia will likely escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine.

2) Russia will create pretexts for an attack on Ukraine.

3) Russia is already creating the pretext to escalate by circulating the false narrative that Ukraine and the West are preparing imminent attacks, including a chemical weapons attack, in eastern Ukraine. Russia may fabricate evidence of a chemical weapons attack – or may itself conduct a chemical weapons attack — near Russia-backed areas of Ukraine to create chaos, justify the overt involvement of the Russian Armed Forces, and set conditions for future military operations.

4) NATO’s inaction following Russia’s aggression in the Azov Sea is likely emboldening Putin to continue challenging the West in Ukraine. “NATO must reassess the threat that Russia poses to European security and the rules-based international order and respond decisively to deter an increasingly likely Russian military escalation in Ukraine itself,” reads the report.

The report also warned that the buildup in Crimea may be in preparation for Russian forces to break out into the Ukrainian mainland at Kherson to capture a water canal and reservoir system that used to provide the mostly barren peninsula with 85 percent of its fresh water supplies. Those were cut off after Moscow’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea. By June, many warn, water supplies in Crimea will fall to critical levels, thereby tempting Putin to invade.

Capturing territory in Kherson would also fit in with the plans many experts believe Moscow has always harbored to forge a land bridge between Crimea and Russian-occupied areas of the Donbas.

Harris said the fact that Russia did not try to hide its involvement in the naval attack meant that Putin was testing what the Western reaction would be. She said the Western response, criticized by many as very weak, increases the danger of further Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Quoting the report, she said: “Moscow may calculate that the international community will not meaningfully respond if the visibility of its role in the war now increases.”

The report said that although Washington had condemned Moscow’s Azov Sea aggression, “it is likely insufficient to deter further offensive action by Russia in Ukraine.”

More at www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/american-think-tank-predicts-putin-w
ill-escalate-war-in-ukraine.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 6, 2019 8:59 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So much blah blah blah. Think tanks have all kind of opinions ... and all kinds of agendas.

Kiev claims that they control large parts of the "gray area" ... the area that was supposed to be demilitarized under the Minsk agreements ... so Poroshenko is clearly in a mood to provoke a response from Russia. But whatever Kiev says or whatever provocations Poroshenko pulls, he will be out by March most likely. Now, if I were Putin I'd simply wait it out, or respond indirectly (like cutting off gas supplies, or something). Responding militarily to Kiev provocations would simply give Poroshenko an excuse to re-impose martial law and delay elections ... something that he's itching to do, seeing as he has single-digit approval ratings right now. And he would LOVE for NATO to get involved!

But Yulia Tymoshenko is the next likely President of Ukraine, they say. So why derail Poroshenko's ouster by making him a "wartime President"?


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Sunday, January 6, 2019 9:36 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So much blah blah blah. Think tanks have all kind of opinions ... and all kinds of agendas.

Kiev claims that they control large parts of the "gray area" ... the area that was supposed to be demilitarized under the Minsk agreements ... so Poroshenko is clearly in a mood to provoke a response from Russia. But whatever Kiev says or whatever provocations Poroshenko pulls, he will be out by March most likely. Now, if I were Putin I'd simply wait it out, or respond indirectly (like cutting off gas supplies, or something). Responding militarily to Kiev provocations would simply give Poroshenko an excuse to re-impose martial law and delay elections ... something that he's itching to do, seeing as he has single-digit approval ratings right now. Yulia Tymoshenko is the next likely President of Ukraine, they say. So why derail Poroshenko's ouster by making him a "wartime President"?

Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko is only listed as a potential candidate. He is not running as President-for-Life. It is Putin who has gone to war, not Poroshenko, and Putin who has repeatedly rewritten his country's Constitution, not Poroshenko, to allow himself to serve since Dec 31, 1999 until his untimely death. Putin is the one who will never leave, not Poroshenko.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_election

Mar 19, 2018
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/russian-leaders-who-served-t
he-longest-time-in-power/articleshow/63365645.cms




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Sunday, January 6, 2019 9:58 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko is only listed as a potential candidate. He is not running as President-for-Life. It is Putin who has gone to war, not Poroshenko
Actually, it was neither one. It was the USA State Department under Obama and Hillary that decided to topple the elected government of Ukraine, despite the fact that the then-President had already agreed to early elections. So, if you want to talk about institutions which trample democratic processes, you can look at the USA deep state.

Quote:

and Putin who has repeatedly rewritten his country's Constitution
"Putin" can't rewrite Russia's constitution, only the Duma (Parliament) can. And the Duma HAS NOT rewritten the Russian Constitution, "repeatedly", so stop lying. Putin served the maximum two consecutive terms as President, stepped out of that office while Medvedev was President, and then was re-elected in a landslide for a third term.

Quote:

not Poroshenko
Funny, because it was EXACTLY the Ukrainian Constitution that was rewritten!

Quote:

Putin is the one who will never leave, not Poroshenko.
That remains to be seen. But unlike your allegation that the Russian Constitution has already been rewritten to allow indefinite stay in (elected) office, THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED. Putin's term ends in 2024.

You must be thinking of Xi Jingping. Now THERE is a man who is in for life.

*****

Your ignorance is painful to read. And it's tedious to constantly debunk your lies.

Gentle reader, please note that SLOPPY SECONDS doesn't even have a link for his bullshit. So, dear reader, for the future just assume that SLOPPY SECONDS is stupid or lying.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Sunday, January 6, 2019 10:26 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Quote:

Putin is the one who will never leave, not Poroshenko.
That remains to be seen.

We will have to wait until Putin dies to see if he bests Stalin's record of 10,636 days. Putin is at 6,946 days as of today. Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine, is at 1,674 days, June 7, 2014 - January 6, 2019.

From his personal history I am sure Poroshenko has better things to do with his time and there are many Ukrainians who could do the job of President, but nobody could do better than Putin at his job. That is why he will never leave. Putin only wishes to serve the people of Russian to the best of his abilities for as long as he shall live (with occasional modifications to the Russian Constitution as become necessary from time to time. When his present term ends will be one of those times for Putin).

Four times President! Putin must really be the necessary and essential man.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin#2018%E2%80%93present:_Fou
rth_presidential_term


"The graveyards are full of indispensable men." Charles de Gaulle
www.brainyquote.com/quotes/charles_de_gaulle_103672

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 6, 2019 1:37 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So all of your blather about "Putin rewriting the constitution" was just that: blather.

Thanks for confirming that you're so stupid you can't even make up a decent lie.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Sunday, January 6, 2019 1:49 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So all of your blather about "Putin rewriting the constitution" was just that: blather.

Thanks for confirming that you're so stupid you can't even make up a decent lie.

Very Russian troll of you to claim what has happened didn't happen and couldn't happen. Putin is in his fourth term as President. Lawmakers in Chechnya submitted a proposal on Friday that would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to run for office in 2024, giving him another six years at Russia's helm.

A president cannot be elected to more than two consecutive terms, according to the country's constitution. The proposed amendment would allow for a third consecutive term.

The measure, posted online and addressed to State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, a former Putin aide, said that a "complex external political situation" makes it important to have "continuity of state power."

The proposal doesn't come as a surprise to Alina Polyakova, a Russian foreign policy expert at The Brookings Institution. "Whether he is prime minister of agriculture, he will still run the government from the shadows," she told NPR. "The surprise is not whether Putin will try to stay, the surprise will be in how the Kremlin will do it."

Putin was first elected president in 2000. After serving two terms, he switched positions with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who signed into law a measure extending presidential term limits from four to six years. Then Putin successfully ran for president again in 2012 and earlier this year.

More at www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/18/612450404/lawmakers-propose
-to-extend-putins-term-limits-as-president


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, January 6, 2019 3:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SLOPPY SECONDS- let's make it clear what you posted. YOU SAID

Quote:

and Putin who has repeatedly rewritten his country's Constitution- SLOPPY


Huh. He repeatedly rewrote the Constitution in the past.
When was that?
Never
, perhaps?


Now, as to the future, I posted that we'll just have to see. Frankly, I don't see why that should happen. He avoided a third "consecutive" term when Medvedev became President. So for the immediate term, somebody like Shoigu could be President and then Putin could, if he wanted to, swoop in afterwards.

But yanno, Putin is 70 years old and would probably like to retire. More importantly (and unlike Trump) he has an incredible advisory committee behind him. They thrash out all of the possible consequences and come to a consensus decision. Putin is a key figure but not the only one. He could retire to an advisory position and the Russian state would still go forward.

Again, we'll just have to see what happens. Maybe their constitution will be rewritten, maybe it won't. But there's no point in making FALSE CLAIMS ABOUT THE PAST because all you do is discredit your point.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Monday, January 7, 2019 7:48 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

But yanno, Putin is 70 years old and would probably like to retire. More importantly (and unlike Trump) he has an incredible advisory committee behind him. They thrash out all of the possible consequences and come to a consensus decision. Putin is a key figure but not the only one. He could retire to an advisory position and the Russian state would still go forward.

If Putin is 70 then he is 10 years past the retirement age, yet he did not retire at the end of his term in 2018. Putin signed into law a pension reform bill which increases the retirement age, formerly age 55 for women and 60 for men, to age 60 and 65 in 2018. That makes him 5 years past his retirement age. His time has come to retire, but he has not. As you wrote: "Putin is a key figure but not the only one. He could retire to an advisory position and the Russian state would still go forward." Then why won’t Putin retire?
www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2018/10/04/putins-russian-retirement-age-h
ike-and-u-s-social-security
/

The Church in Ukraine cannot know how much sway, and for how long, Putin has over the Church hierarchy in Moscow. Ukraine took final action today. Putin gave an unfriendly warning about violent clashes over Church property in Ukraine:

President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine was with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I during the ceremony in Istanbul on Sunday blessing the Orthodox Church of Ukraine’s break from Moscow.

The Metropolitan of Kiev and all Ukraine, representing the Holy Synod of Ukrainian bishops, will turn to the Patriarchate of Constantinople for all decisions in the future, not to Moscow.

The part of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that remains loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate declared that the Tomos for the new church of Ukraine had been signed in violation of canonical rules, the Russian news agency Tass reported.

Tass quoted Archbishop Clement as saying that Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople was veering into factionalism by supporting the schism.

The Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas on Monday, when a celebration will be held in St. Sophia Cathedral in Kiev and the Tomos will go on display to the public.

There has been concern that the schism dividing the Ukrainian and Russian churches could provoke violent clashes over church property, not least the famous monastery in central Kiev revered as the birthplace of Russian Christianity. President Vladimir V. Putin himself warned of that possibility last month.

www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/world/europe/orthodox-church-ukraine-russia
.html


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