REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Interstate Migration.

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Friday, July 12, 2019 17:12
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Thursday, January 3, 2019 4:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I heard that some figures were released regarding migration.
Seems it came from IRS, for 2016.

Apparently the leading State for loss of migration, was Democrat stronghold New York. Followed by New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, California, other Libtard Utopias.


So, one viewpoint is that Blue States will lose Electoral Vote Power. The other side is that idiot voters are invading rational lands, and will dilute the reasonable Vote.


The data seems to be for 2016, with NY having a net loss of 76,200 households. IRS defined 2.1 persons per household.
41,900 for Illinois.
25,900 for New Jersey.
25,900 for California.
19,500 for Pennsylvania.
14,500 for Massachusetts.
13,200 for Ohio.
12,200 for Connecticut.
12,000 for Maryland.
10,300 for Michigan.

Gainers were topped by Florida with net gain of 95,000 households.
30,400 for Washington.
25,600 for North Carolina.
24,600 Colorado.
24,200 Arizona.
21,700 Oregon.
19,400 Texas.
18,500 South Carolina.
17,700 Georgia.
14,200 Nevada.

Other gainers: Idaho, Tennessee, Delaware, New Hampshire, Montana, Utah, Maine, South Dakota.


The 25 States with the highest Taxation Rates had a combined net migration loss of over 286,400 households to the 25 States with the lowest Taxation rates. A total of 578,269 people.

Of the 25 States with Highest Taxation, 24 had a net loss of migration. Only Maine had a net gain.


The 25 States with lowest Taxation Rates (State & Local Taxes on Sales, property, personal income taxes - as a percentage of personal income):
Alaska is under 5%.
Delaware is under 6%.
TN, FL under 7%.
NH at about 7%.

OK, SD, AL under 7.5%
MT, VA a little over 7.5%.

SC, ID, WY, MO are at or under 8%.
CO, GA, TX, WA, AZ, NV, NC round out the best 20.
NC, UT are around 8.3%, and are the highest SALT Rates among net migration gainers, except Maine.
LA, MI, KS round out the lowest 25.


By comparison, NY has 13% Tax Rate. HI is about 11.6%. ME, VT are at or over 11%. MN is about 10.4%.


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Thursday, January 3, 2019 5:11 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I ran across a report from CATO which graded Governors from 43 States.

The 17 highest ranked were all (R), and of the top 23, only 1 was (D). Of the bottom 12, 2 were (R).

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Thursday, January 3, 2019 8:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So, one viewpoint is that Blue States will lose Electoral Vote Power. The other side is that idiot voters are invading rational lands, and will dilute the reasonable Vote.



I wouldn't worry too much about this.

At least in the case of Illinois, it's not Democrats that are fleeing the state.

Who are the people most likely to stay in Illinois right now? I can think of three categories.

1. Anybody benefiting from the government dole.
2. Union workers.
3. Rich people.

How many of them do you honestly think are not Democrat?

If you look at a map of Illinois, most of the state is red. We're getting a lot of the people fleeing from Illinois. Doesn't seem to be changing our voting demographics in the slightest.



On the flip side, it's not going to help non-Democrats much either. Anybody fleeing one of these failing states to move to a non-failing state is moving to a state that largely votes against Democrats anyhow.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, January 4, 2019 1:07 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


A related thread is tid=62325

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Friday, January 4, 2019 3:28 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


OK, I finished adding data to the OP.


Now, in terms of effects upon the Electoral College, it looks like about 600,000 people of net migration. If that happens every year for 10 years, that is 6 million.
With US population of about 330,000,000 then that is about 1% of the total. With 435 Seats, that is about 4 moving, with 4 being lost and 4 being gained.
7 States have the minimum of 1 Seat in the House: MT (989,400), SD, ND, VT, DE, WY, AK. The remaining 43 States divvy up the remaining 428 Seats. MT will gain a Seat after the next Census.
The 2 Seat States are RI(1,052,900), NH, ME, HI, ID(1,567,600).
CA had 37,252,900 Population for its 53 Seats. (702,880 per Seat).

So if 2016 is an accurate snapshot of the larger trend, then IL(20>19), NJ(14>13), CA(55>54) would lose a Seat in the House, and NY(29>27) would lose 2. All 5 of those Electoral Votes went to Hilliary.

And WA (12>13) would gain a Seat in the House. If FL(29>32) gains 3 Seats, NC (15>16) could gain 1 Seat. But if FL(29>33) gains 4 Seats, NC wouldn't likely gain a Seat. WA went to Hilliary, and the other 4 went to Trump.

So if all States vote the same after the next Census, GoP could gain 4 Electoral Votes (with Dems losing 4) merely on migration alone. And 4 House Seats, which are less likely to be diluted by migrating idiot voters. Dems could lose 4 House Seats, but that is dependant upon Gerrymandering - those 4 States could take out 5 GOP Seats with Gerrymandering.

Currently, FL is tied with NY for the 3rd most Electoral Votes, behind CA and TX. Clearly, after 2020 it will be alone in 3rd place.

After 2010 Census (counting Illegal Aliens equally as Citizens), NY and OH lost 2 Seats, FL and WA gained 2 Seats. PA (21>20), IL, NJ, MI, MA, LA, IA, MO lost a Seat. CA and NC remained the same. Utah gained a Seat (5>6), also AZ, GA, NV. TX gained 4 Seats (34>38).
The Population had increased 27.3 million from 2000 to 2010.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 6:44 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I heard that some figures were released regarding migration.
Seems it came from IRS, for 2016.



Cites? You rarely have any cites to back up your nonsense - why is that?

"The data seems to be for 2016" How can you have data and not know where it came from? Kiki?

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Tuesday, April 30, 2019 12:21 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I heard that some figures were released regarding migration.
Seems it came from IRS, for 2016.

Apparently the leading State for loss of migration, was Democrat stronghold New York. Followed by New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, California, other Libtard Utopias.


So, one viewpoint is that Blue States will lose Electoral Vote Power. The other side is that idiot voters are invading rational lands, and will dilute the reasonable Vote.


The data seems to be for 2016, with NY having a net loss of 76,200 households. IRS defined 2.1 persons per household.
41,900 for Illinois.
25,900 for New Jersey.
25,900 for California.
19,500 for Pennsylvania.
14,500 for Massachusetts.
13,200 for Ohio.
12,200 for Connecticut.
12,000 for Maryland.
10,300 for Michigan.

Gainers were topped by Florida with net gain of 95,000 households.
30,400 for Washington.
25,600 for North Carolina.
24,600 Colorado.
24,200 Arizona.
21,700 Oregon.
19,400 Texas.
18,500 South Carolina.
17,700 Georgia.
14,200 Nevada.

Other gainers: Idaho, Tennessee, Delaware, New Hampshire, Montana, Utah, Maine, South Dakota.


The 25 States with the highest Taxation Rates had a combined net migration loss of over 286,400 households to the 25 States with the lowest Taxation rates. A total of 578,269 people.

Of the 25 States with Highest Taxation, 24 had a net loss of migration. Only Maine had a net gain.


The 25 States with lowest Taxation Rates (State & Local Taxes on Sales, property, personal income taxes - as a percentage of personal income):
Alaska is under 5%.
Delaware is under 6%.
TN, FL under 7%.
NH at about 7%.

OK, SD, AL under 7.5%
MT, VA a little over 7.5%.

SC, ID, WY, MO are at or under 8%.
CO, GA, TX, WA, AZ, NV, NC round out the best 20.
NC, UT are around 8.3%, and are the highest SALT Rates among net migration gainers, except Maine.
LA, MI, KS round out the lowest 25.


By comparison, NY has 13% Tax Rate. HI is about 11.6%. ME, VT are at or over 11%. MN is about 10.4%.


Also, all of these Taxation rates are with the subsidizing from Federal deductibles, which Trump has reportedly deleted. So now these Tax Lovers can finally pay their Fair Share.

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Wednesday, May 1, 2019 4:59 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Of the 25 States with Highest Taxation, 24 had a net loss of migration. Only Maine had a net gain.


The 25 States with lowest Taxation Rates (State & Local Taxes on Sales, property, personal income taxes - as a percentage of personal income):
Alaska is under 5%.
Delaware is under 6%.
TN, FL under 7%.
NH at about 7%.

OK, SD, AL under 7.5%
MT, VA a little over 7.5%.

SC, ID, WY, MO are at or under 8%.
CO, GA, TX, WA, AZ, NV, NC round out the best 20.
NC, UT are around 8.3%, and are the highest SALT Rates among net migration gainers, except Maine.
LA, MI, KS round out the lowest 25.


By comparison, NY has 13% Tax Rate. HI is about 11.6%. ME, VT are at or over 11%. MN is about 10.4%.

Actually, I think the most complete representation of tax rates on state population loss (or gain) would be a CHART which has SALT as one axis and PERCENT (NOT TOTAL) POPULATION LOSS OR GAIN as the other axis. It's extremely unrepresentative to look at simple numbers of people leaving or arriving. NY state could lose 20,000 people (out of 20,000,000) and barely notice, but if WY lost 20,000 (out of 600,0000) people would notice! With a complete list (and not a scattershot of stats that may have been selected by someone with an ax to grind) you could then perform a regression analysis and calculate whether immi- or emigration is reliably tied to tax rates. It would be interesting then to see whihc factors might be affecting states which fell far from the trendline (assuming that there is one). Better yet, you could do a multivariate analysis and look at factors such as climate, gini index, unemployment (U3), party in control of the state legislature and governorhsip, and other factors to see which ones (if any) are more important than SALT. (For example, retirees would be more sensitive to SALT and also freer to move, so you should look at the population and differentiate on age.)

It would be an interesting analysis, and maybe one of these days when I'm not so busy I may undertake it.

Aside from all that, and low taxes notwithstanding ... who the heck would want to move to AL, TX, GA, or MI?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Wednesday, May 1, 2019 9:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


AL has all those auto assembly jobs, TX and GA are Hot, for those that like that sort of thing, and all 3 have Ocean shoreline.
And MI probably has more waterfront shoreline than any State outside AK. Plus it has 4 seasons. For women, it has the most anti-male laws in the Union. And Always-Your-Fault Insurance.

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Wednesday, May 1, 2019 10:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I hate hot weather, especially hot humid weather. And my sinuses hate hot dry weather, so I'm a more northeast/ northwest coastal kind of gal. Stuck in Los Angeles.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Thursday, May 2, 2019 10:40 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I hate hot weather, especially hot humid weather. And my sinuses hate hot dry weather, so I'm a more northeast/ northwest coastal kind of gal. Stuck in Los Angeles.

The whole State of MI is surrounded by water, on almost all sides.

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Thursday, May 2, 2019 5:38 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

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Sunday, May 5, 2019 4:21 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


And then there are the Millionaires. Perhaps I should also put this in the Lower Tax Rate Thread.


Millionaires Flee Their Homelands as Tensions Rise and Taxes Bite
[Bloomberg]
Alex Sazonov
BloombergApril 30, 2019
View photos
Millionaires Flee Their Homelands as Tensions Rise and Taxes Bite

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s wealthy are increasingly on the move.

About 108,000 millionaires migrated across borders last year, a 14 percent increase from the prior year, and more than double the level in 2013, according to Johannesburg-based New World Wealth. Australia, U.S. and Canada are the top destinations, according to the research firm, while China and Russia are the biggest losers. The U.K. saw around 3,000 millionaires depart last year with Brexit and taxation cited as possible reasons.

Wealth migration figures point to present conditions -- such as crime, lack of business opportunities or religious tensions -- but can also be a key future indicator, said Andrew Amoils, head of research at New World Wealth.

“It can be a sign of bad things to come as high-net-worth individuals are often the first people to leave -- they have the means to leave unlike middle-class citizens,” he said.

Top Destinations

Australia tops most "wish lists" for immigrants because of its perceived safety, no inheritance tax and strong business ties to China, Japan and South Korea. It also stands out for its sustained growth, having escaped the financial crisis largely unscathed and avoided recessions for the past 27 years.

The U.S. was the second most popular destination in 2018, with New York City, Los Angeles, Miami and the San Francisco Bay area the preferred options.

China, India

China’s tightening grip on capital outflows in recent years has placed many of the country’s wealthier citizens in the crosshairs of the taxman, leading to a shift of assets and people. Some rich Asians also move to developed countries looking for more comfort or to improve their children’s education.

The outflow of high-net worth individuals from China and India isn’t particularly concerning from an economic standpoint as far more new millionaires are being created there than are leaving, New World Wealth said.

"Once the standard of living in these countries improves, we expect several wealthy people to move back," Amoils said.

Volatile emerging markets continued to fuel movement, with Turkey losing 4,000 millionaires last year, the third straight year that many have left. About 7,000 millionaires left Russia last year as the country grappled under sanctions imposed over its annexation of Crimea.

The desire for privacy is also prompting rich individuals to reconsider their place of residence.

Under the Common Reporting Standard, launched by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development in 2017, banks and other financial institutions are disclosing data on foreign account holders to their local tax authority. Authorities automatically exchange relevant information with their counterparts overseas annually, allowing governments to zero in on tax evaders. More than 100 jurisdictions have joined CRS, setting a new precedent for the global exchange of data on offshore assets.

This trend is reflected in the growth in demand for second passports and residencies.

"Many wealthy people are looking for opportunities to reduce risks associated with spreading information about their accounts," said Polina Kuleshova of Henley & Partners, which provides citizenship advice and publishes rankings such as the Quality of Nationality Index.

A record 26 percent of global millionaires will begin to plan for emigration this year, according to Knight Frank’s 2019 wealth report.

Citizenship and residency by investment programs are big business: currently, the industry is worth an estimated $2 billion annually, according to Knight Frank. It’s also drawing concern and criticism.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development is scrutinizing the potential misuse of these schemes. In October 2018, it released a blacklist of 21 jurisdictions, including Malta and Cyprus, that it believes are undermining international efforts to combat tax evasion.

(Updates with Common Reporting Standard in 12th paragraph.)

--With assistance from Tom Metcalf and Ben Stupples.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Sazonov in Moscow at asazonov@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Pierre Paulden at ppaulden@bloomberg.net, Steven Crabill

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/millionaires-flee-homelands-tensions
-rise-090001053.html

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Wednesday, July 3, 2019 5:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I need to remember to make a list of worst losses and gains.

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Friday, July 5, 2019 5:37 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I need to remember to make a list of worst losses and gains.



Here I've shown the changes in Elector counts due to Population changes, from the Census of 1990, 2000, 2010. Then I total the amount changed spanning those 3 decades, and the percent of change.

Then the region/location.

Then the State Tax Burden, and ranking, both from Forbes.

ST 82 92 02 12 Chang/% Reg Tax Rate

MT 02 01 01 01 -1 -50% NW 08.7% #13
IA 06 05 05 04 -2 -33% MW 09.2% #20
LA 08 07 07 06 -2 -25% SO 07.6% #6
WV 04 03 03 03 -1 -25% EC 09.8% #33
OH 21 19 18 16 -5 -24% MW 09.8% #32

MI 18 16 15 14 -4 -22% MW 09.4% #26
PA 23 21 19 18 -5 -22% NE 10.2% #36
NY 34 31 29 27 -7 -21% NE 12.7% #50
MS 05 05 04 04 -1 -20% SO 08.6% #10
KS 05 04 04 04 -1 -20% MW 09.5% #28

IL 22 20 19 18 -4 -18% MW 11.0% #46
MA 11 10 10 09 -2 -18% NE 10.3% #39
OK 06 06 05 05 -1 -17% SC 08.6% #11
CT 06 06 05 05 -1 -17% NE 12.6% #49
NJ 14 13 13 12 -2 -14% NE 12.2% #48

KY 07 06 06 06 -1 -14% EC 09.5% #27
MO 09 09 09 08 -1 -11% MW 09.3% #22
WI 09 09 08 08 -1 -11% MW 11.0% #47
IN 10 10 09 09 -1 -10% MW 09.5% #29
OR 05 05 05 05 ------- WC 10.3% #41

MN 08 08 08 08 ------- MW 10.8% #43
AR 04 04 04 04 ------- SE 10.1% #34
NE 03 03 03 03 ------- PL 09.2% #21
TN 09 09 09 09 ------- SE 07.3% #4
MD 08 08 08 08 ------- NE 10.9% #44

AL 07 07 07 07 ------- SE 08.7% #12
NM 03 03 03 03 ------- SW 08.7% #14
ID 02 02 02 02 ------- MT 09.3% #25
HI 02 02 02 02 ------- PA 10.2% #37
ME 02 02 02 02 ------- NE 10.2% #38

NH 02 02 02 02 ------- NE 07.9% #7
RI 02 02 02 02 ------- NE 10.8% #42
DE 01 01 01 01 ------- NE 10.2% #35
SD 01 01 01 01 ------- PL 07.1% #2
AK 01 01 01 01 ------- NW 06.5% #1

ND 01 01 01 01 ------- PL 09.0% #18
VT 01 01 01 01 ------- NE 10.3% #40
WY 01 01 01 01 ------- MT 07.1% #3
VA 10 11 11 11 +1 +10% EC 09.3% #24
SC 06 06 06 07 +1 +17% SE 08.4% #9

CO 06 06 07 07 +1 +17% MT 08.9% #16
CA 45 52 53 53 +8 +18% WC 11.0% #45
NC 11 12 13 13 +2 +18% SE 09.8% #31
WA 08 09 09 10 +2 +25% WC 09.3% #23
UT 03 03 03 04 +1 +33% MT 09.6% #30

TX 27 30 32 36 +9 +33% SC 07.6% #5
GA 10 11 13 14 +4 +40% SE 09.1% #19
FL 19 23 25 27 +8 +42% SE 08.9% #17
AZ 05 06 08 09 +4 +80% SW 08.8% #15
NV 02 02 03 04 +2 100% SW 08.1% #8


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Saturday, July 6, 2019 3:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I think that gives a better view of the longer term trends.

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Friday, July 12, 2019 5:12 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I added some color codes to that table for visual reference.

Of course, LA, MS, and AL had Hurricane problems.

Kinda easy to notice that CA and RI are about to lose a House Seat after Census 2020.

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