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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
Electoral College, ReSteal 2024 Edition
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 2:30 PM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 2:31 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I should probably start with this useful data. Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted.In 2016, Trump beat Hilliary, with only 54,996 votes (in MI and PA) deciding the race. This means that if the right 27,498 voters had changed, Hilliary would have won. (5,352 in MI and 22,146 in PA). Quote: Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Hilliary had a 1.51% margin in MN. Let us review 2016.Quote: Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. 13 States. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population. Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980. Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980. Groups 1-5 all voted for Trump. 235 Electors. 25 States. Quote:6. 40 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980. Group 6: OH maintained it's record of voting for every winner since 1963. The other 2 remained on the Dark Side. Trump 253 EV, 26 States. Hilliary 22 EV, 2 States. Quote: Group 7. 57 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980. Group 7 split: WI, IA, PA went to Trump, the others remained on the Dark Side. Trump 289 EV, 29 States. Hilliary 43 EV, 5 States. Quote: Group 8. 31 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980. Group 8: MI voted Trump in 2016, the rest stayed on the Dark Side. Trump 305 EV, 30 States. Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. 12 States. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left. Group 9 voted Hilliary in 2016. Quote: States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963.OH and FL were the only asterisk States to vote for the winner.Quote: Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted.
Quote: Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%.
Quote: Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. 13 States. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population. Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980. Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
Quote:6. 40 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.
Quote: Group 7. 57 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 8. 31 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. 12 States. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left.
Quote: States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963.
Quote: Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: So, how this data works moving forward in 2020: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted. Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.TX 9% in 2016 Quote: Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.GA 5.1% in 2016 Quote: Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980. FL 1.2% in 2016 Groups 1-5: 235 Electors, 25 States. I'll insert a Group 10 here - the States which went to Trump but trended Dem. OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump. WI - 10 EV. 0.77% IA - 6 EV. 9.4% PA - 20 EV 0.71% MI - 16 EV 0.22% If Trump retains OH and IA, that adds up to 259 Electors. Another 11 Electoral Votes wins him another 4 years. Quote: 6. 40 22 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980. CO 4.9%, VA 5.3% Quote: Group 7. 57 21 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.NM 8.2%, MN 1.51%, NV 2.4% Quote: Group 8. 31 15 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.OR 11%, NH 0.37%, ME 2.96% Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left. States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963. Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: In 2012 Obama beat Romney, with only 409,500 votes deciding the race. This means if the right 205,000 voters had changed, Romney would have won. With an estimated Voting Eligible Population of 222,474,000 this means that less than one one-thousandth of the Eligible Voters decided the race, or less than 0.1%. With total vote count of 129,237,000 the percentage was about 0.15% of those who voted. Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.
Quote: Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980.
Quote: 6. 40 22 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980.
Quote: Group 7. 57 21 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 8. 31 15 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.
Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left. States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963. Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Quote:Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.TX 9% in 2016 Quote: Group 2. 19 Electors. GA, MT. These 2 have voted for GOP in each election since 1982 except for 1992. Both can be assumed to go for GOP in 2016, although GA had only an 8% margin in 2012. They had 16 Electors in 1980.GA 5.1% in 2016 Quote: Group 3. 59 Electors. TN, AZ, MO, LA, KY, AR, WV. These states have voted for GOP in almost all elections since 1979 except for the Perot years, 1992 & 1996. They also each have a margin in 2012 of 9% or more. They are likely to vote GOP in 2016. Group 4. 26 Electors. NC, IN. These 2 states have voted Right every election since 1979 except 2008. In 2012 IN voted R by a margin of 10%, and 2008 voted D by a margin of 1.0%. NC voted R in 2012 by a margin or 2% and in 2008 voted D by a margin of 0.32%. These would likely vote Republican if there was a decent candidate. 5. 29 Electors. FL*. Florida has voted R since 1979 except 1996, 2008, and 2012. The margin in 2012 was 0.9%. This would easily go to Republican if a decent candidate was available. Florida had 17 Electors in 1980. FL 1.2% in 2016 Groups 1-5: 235 Electors, 25 States. I'll insert a Group 10 here - the States which went to Trump but trended Dem. OH - 18 EV. 8.1% to Trump. WI - 10 EV. 0.77% IA - 6 EV. 9.4% PA - 20 EV 0.71% MI - 16 EV 0.22% If Trump retains OH and IA, that adds up to 259 Electors. Another 11 Electoral Votes wins him another 4 years. Quote: 6. 40 22 Electors. CO*, VA, OH*. These 3 States usually vote for the winner since 1979, and in 2012 voted Dem by a margin ranging between 3% and 5%. A decent candidate would put these back in the GOP column. Ohio has lost 28% of it's Elector count since 1980. CO 4.9%, VA 5.3% Quote: Group 7. 57 21 Electors. NM*, MN, WI, IA, NV*, PA. Other than the Reagan/Bush41 years, these states have mostly voted for Dems since then, and in 2012 had margins of between 5% and 10% for Obama. These would likely vote Democrat if there was a decent candidate. This group had 63 Electors in 1980.NM 8.2%, MN 1.51%, NV 2.4% Quote: Group 8. 31 15 Electors. MI, OR, NH*, ME These states have voted for Democrats since 1990, and had a large margin in 2012, with MI the tightest margin at 10%. These are likely to go to Democrats in 2016. This group had 35 Electors in 1980.OR 11%, NH 0.37%, ME 2.96% Quote: Group 9. 175 Electors. CA, NY, IL, NJ, WA, MA, MD, CT, VT, HI, RI, DE, DC. These states have voted for Democrats in every Presidential election since 1990. Unless the GOP puts up somebody similar to the most conservative of recent history - Reagan - these states are likely to stick with the Democrats. This makes them useless in terms of campaigning - no need to spend money or time in these states, other than to raise money to spend in other, competitive states. This group had 187 Electors in 1980, and other than CA and WA have lost 25 Electors as a group. Their liberalism has decimated their states, shunning prosperity, turning their back on progress, forcing populations to go elsewhere like conservative states, but they drag along their inept liberal thinking so they can destroy their new homes like they did the place they left. States with an asterisk have voted for the winner in almost all elections since 1979. Only OH and NV have voted for the winner in every election since 1979, and OH since 1963. Groups 1-6 would garner 275 Electors for the GOP, winning the Presidency. A reasonable expectation. Regarding Electoral shift since 1980, the States with the largest percentage increase of Electors are NV 100%, AZ 83%, FL 71%, UT 50%, TX 46%, GA 33%, which are in groups 1-6 except NV. The states with the largest percentage loss of Electors are NY 29%, OH 28%, PA 26%, IA 25%, MI 24%, IL 23%, which are in groups 6-9 and vote Democrat more often.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Of course, no state has voted for Democrats in every elections since 1971, but Minnesota has done so for every election after 1972. Even when the most conservative President we've had in modern times was running, every other state voted for Reagan, but not MN. But they only had an 8 percent margin in 2012, meaning that if 4% of their voters had shifted, the state would have gone to Romney. In 2008 they had a margin of 10%. Consider these groups of states. Group 1. 102 Electors. TX, SC, AL, OK, UT, KS, MS, NE, ID, WY, ND, SD, AK. These states have voted Republican in every election since 1979, and the closest margin in 2012 was SC with 10%. Most people can assume they will go to the GOP in 2016. This group had 91 Electors in 1980, but they have embraced progress and Free Enterprise and flourished, expanding their proportional population.
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