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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
anyone click on it, a link of its news and prediction for Biden etc it must have been posted in one of those election threads

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Nate Silver saw this coming though. And though his predictions were still way off the mark in November, he wasn't as bad as 538 was.

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Under Silver the site did pretty well … until the arrival of Donald Trump in 2016. Suddenly, “data-driven” began to look more like “wishcasting,” and the site became a joke. Silver left his creation in 2023, 538 blew the 2024 presidential election, and now it’s gone. So sad. Buh-bye.

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Less than a week before the 2024 presidential election, the far-left New York Times published a vote-suppression piece blistering RealClearPolitics (RCP).

“Why the Right Thinks Trump Is Running Away With the Race,” was the headline.

As we now know, Trump did run away with the 2024 race. He won the electoral college. He won the popular vote. He swept all seven swing states. He moved vast swaths of the country into the Republican column. His gains with minority voters were nothing short of incredible.

But less than a week before the election, the Times simply wasn’t ready to face the fact Trump might win reelection and with that reelection repudiate the regime media in a way that would prove they no longer matter.

What to do?

What to do?

Using the now-disgraced and shuttered 538 as its unimpeachable source, the Times scoffed at a number of the latest polls that showed Trump leading.

A “torrent of polls began arriving just a few weeks ago, one after the other, most showing a victory for Donald J. Trump,” wrote the Times. These polls “stood out amid the hundreds of others indicating a dead heat in the presidential election.”

Ah, but that “torrent of polls,” revealed the Times, were “commissioned by right-leaning groups with a vested interest in promoting Republican strength.”

Then, and without any evidence, the Times accused those pollsters — 37 in all — of being “focused on lifting Republican enthusiasm before the election” and “cementing the idea that the only way Mr. Trump can lose to Vice President Kamala Harris is if the election is rigged.”

Get a load of this beauty…

“That increase comes as the volume of nonpartisan polls — such as those commissioned by major news organizations — have dropped significantly, though they still make up a majority of the polls released.”

So the Times laughably argued that “polls commissioned by major news organizations” are nonpartisan,” when two decades of evidence proves the exact opposite. The Washington Post, anyone?

Then the Times wrote the following as though it were an absolute fact, just so it could attack RCP…

“Still, the race remains uncommonly close,” wrote the Times, but that “has not stopped these polls from shaping the broader narrative in the race’s final stretch. The averages on the popular aggregation site RealClearPolitics, in particular, are widely cited on social media.”

And now we come to RCP’s unpardonable sin…

“Unlike its competitors, RealClearPolitics does not filter out low-quality polls” and also “does not weight its averages.” Which is just another way of saying that, unlike 538 (which got the election wrong and has lost so much money and credibility it just closed in disgrace), RCP does not put its thumb on the scale. It lists the polls and offers the averages, and that’s it.

You see, to corrupt outlets like the Times, not rigging your numbers is a sin.

It gets even funnier, especially in hindsight:

The RCP “no tossups” map “currently shows Mr. Trump winning every swing state,” the Times whines. “Influential accounts have been sharing screenshots of’ the RCP map “paired with images of the Polymarket betting average, which currently shows Mr. Trump with a 65 percent chance of winning.”

One Democrat strategist told the Times that the goal here was to “shift the polling averages and deflate Democrat enthusiasm.”

At the time, this article was a joke. Knowing what we know now, it’s a real howler.

RCP got it right in 2024 … or as close to right as anyone could … AGAIN.

I’ve followed RCP for 25 years now for two reasons: 1) They don’t mess with the numbers, and 2) they don’t mess with the numbers.

But here we are, four months after this New York Times hit piece ran, and the truth will out. All those “right-leaning polls” were correct. And because they don’t arrogantly tweak the numbers, RCP was correct. But all those nonpartisan “polls commissioned by major news organizations” were dead wrong. And because they did arrogantly fudge with the numbers, 538 has been shuttered in disgrace.

We also know that every premise that hit piece was based on was a total lie.

The New York Times has some awfully stupid readers if they put up with being deceived like this.

Meanwhile, RCP readers are more than satisfied.

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