The predictions thread

POSTED BY: kpo
UPDATED: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 18:54
VIEWED: 145029
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JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, December 24, 2014 5:43 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll make a conditional prediction.
IF the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) drops to 15,257; then I predict that there will be a bump up to between 16,155-17,050 which might take a week or month to occur, and then at some point (weeks or months) after bumping up to 16,150 or so, it will drop far below 15,000 for an extended period (months or years).

The condition was not met. Dow is back up to new all-time high. Over 18,000.

ELVISCHRIST

Wednesday, December 24, 2014 10:38 PM (P)

Republicans were unanimous in their doom and gloom predictions for the economy if the ACA went into effect. After the first full year of "Obamacare", the economy is at an 11-year high, employment is at a 15-year high, the Dow is at an all-time high, gas is at new lows, and the economy is, as some would say, "on fire".

KPO

Thursday, December 25, 2014 4:50 AM (P)

And the deficit is shrinking rapidly. With the economy firing, debt/GDP could shrink this year for the first time since Clinton. It's almost like nothing Republicans say (about Obama, or anything) turns out to be accurate...

It's not personal. It's just war.

ELVISCHRIST

Thursday, December 25, 2014 6:57 AM (P)

In 2012, Tim Pawlenty said a GOP president could generate 5% growth, Romney said a GOP president could get 6% unemployment, and Gingrich said a GOP president could get gas to $2.50 a gallon.

So why aren't they all crowing about what a fantastic president Obama is for doing all three of those things and then some?

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Saturday, December 27, 2014 12:57 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by ElvisChrist:

I predicted that there would be no new Ebola cases linked to the doctor in New York or the nurse in Maine.

Looks like I nailed that one.

It almost seems like following the proper protocols negates the risk of contracting Ebola, but nobody on the right wants to talk about that now.

REAVERFAN

Saturday, December 27, 2014 1:11 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by ELVISCHRIST:
In 2012, Tim Pawlenty said a GOP president could generate 5% growth, Romney said a GOP president could get 6% unemployment, and Gingrich said a GOP president could get gas to $2.50 a gallon.

So why aren't they all crowing about what a fantastic president Obama is for doing all three of those things and then some?

Standard GOP MO.

NEVER give Obama credit for ANYTHING.

I predict that Obama will go down in history as a great president, all the better due to the 24/7 propaganda the reichwingers post here, only to be proven wrong, again and again.

KPO

Saturday, December 27, 2014 7:31 PM (P)

There are increasing signs that the Russia-backed separatists are resorting to terrorism, as I predicted back in August:

kpo - "we could see the separatists, still backed by Russia, resort to asymmetric tactics - terrorism and guerrilla warfare against the Ukrainian military, and state. So this whole thing could be a bloody mess for some time I fear.

Basically I think Putin's motivation is to fuck with Ukraine as much as possible, so that if it is Western aligned, it is weak and destabilised, and as close to a failed state as possible."

It's not personal. It's just war.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Sunday, December 28, 2014 2:10 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
There are increasing signs that the Russia-backed separatists are resorting to terrorism, as I predicted back in August:

kpo - "we could see the separatists, still backed by Russia, resort to asymmetric tactics - terrorism and guerrilla warfare against the Ukrainian military, and state. So this whole thing could be a bloody mess for some time I fear.

Basically I think Putin's motivation is to fuck with Ukraine as much as possible, so that if it is Western aligned, it is weak and destabilised, and as close to a failed state as possible."

It's not personal. It's just war.

goodness
The Invading Terrorists are resorting to terrorism!
Was this Breaking News on CNN that caught your attention?
I've heard rumors that CNN has a taped interview from days ago announcing the anniversary of a Breaking News discovery that water could be wet. But, bowing to evidence from The Dating Game, claims about the Sun Rising in the East are still in doubt.

ELVISCHRIST

Monday, December 29, 2014 5:07 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
There are increasing signs that the Russia-backed separatists are resorting to terrorism, as I predicted back in August:

kpo - "we could see the separatists, still backed by Russia, resort to asymmetric tactics - terrorism and guerrilla warfare against the Ukrainian military, and state. So this whole thing could be a bloody mess for some time I fear.

Basically I think Putin's motivation is to fuck with Ukraine as much as possible, so that if it is Western aligned, it is weak and destabilised, and as close to a failed state as possible."

It's not personal. It's just war.

goodness
The Invading Terrorists are resorting to terrorism!
Was this Breaking News on CNN that caught your attention?
I've heard rumors that CNN has a taped interview from days ago announcing the anniversary of a Breaking News discovery that water could be wet. But, bowing to evidence from The Dating Game, claims about the Sun Rising in the East are still in doubt.

Yeah, next thing you know they'll be claiming that the U.S. tortured people or something crazy like that.

JO753

Tuesday, December 30, 2014 1:07 AM (P)

I wuz expecting the Republican Party to be extinct by now. Looks like my unfavorable estimation uv the intellijens uv the average American wuz unrealisticly hi.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.nooalf.com

THGRRI

Tuesday, December 30, 2014 1:33 AM (P)

I predict the Russian economy will completely collapse and the Russian people will revolt in what will be called the purple revolution. Also, I predict the stress of this will be to much for Sig to endure and she will suffer further psychotic episodes.

KPO

Saturday, January 10, 2015 9:27 PM (P)

Signy thinks that the UK Conservative party's 'Extremist Disruption Orders' will lead to people being arrested for 'thought crimes'.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Saturday, January 10, 2015 9:44 PM (P)

Wow, have a fun time defining THAT one, KPO! But I have to say... even if this comes true ... no, especially if this comes true ... you wouldn't hear about it.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

SIGNYM

Sunday, January 11, 2015 11:50 PM (P)

Quote:
Wow, have a fun time defining THAT one, KPO! But I have to say... even if this comes true ... no, especially if this comes true ... you wouldn't hear about it.

Well, you just can't make this shit up:

Nursery staff to be forced to report toddlers at risk of becoming terrorists

Quote:
Nursery school employees will have a duty to report young children who are at-risk of becoming terrorists under proposed new legislation

Nursery staff will be forced to report toddlers at risk of becoming terrorists under plans drawn up by the Home Office.

It is part of the department’s consultation over ways to enhance its anti-terrorism strategy, Prevent.

Critics have dismissed the proposals as being unnecessarily draconian and turning staff, who are meant to be caring for youngsters, into spies.

The consultation document on the Prevent Strategy states: “Senior management and governors are expected to assess the risk of pupils being drawn into terrorism, including support for the extremist ideas that are part of terrorist ideology.”

It continues, staff are expected to “identify children at risk of being drawn into terrorism” and “challenge extremist ideas which can be used to legitimise terrorism”.

The Home Office said it would not expect the hypothetical situation of a young child being taught that non-Muslims are wicked to be ignored. Equally, anti-Semitic comments made in front of nursery workers should be reported, the department added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nursery-staff-to-be-forc
ed-to-report-toddlers-at-risk-of-becoming-terrorists-9956414.html

Just proposed legislation, but should never have made it into writing.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

THGRRI

Monday, January 12, 2015 12:00 AM (P)

The independent, now theirs a news source. Step right in, here ye here ye. Read your news and find a date all in the same place.

SIGNYM

Monday, January 12, 2015 12:15 AM (P)

Are you saying that just because I linked The Independent, that the story isn't true?

I gave you advice a few posts back, that maybe you should websearch your comments BEFORE you post them. It was exactly under the same circumstances ... you criticized my link because it was only one (and one that you didn't like, apparently). But it was far too easy to come up with multiple links from the across the world and the political spectrum.

Well, maybe you should do that here. There's enough specific information in the article for you to search the web for sources that you feel more sympatico with. Try it next time BEFORE you post.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

THGRRI

Monday, January 12, 2015 12:22 AM (P)

Quote:
SIGNYM

Are you saying that just because I linked The Independent, that the story isn't true?

I am saying they have an agenda. It is far left leaning and the only reason you quote them as a source is because it is taking a negative stance against someone other that Russia. You don't give two shits about what they are reporting, only that it is a negative story and not about Russia. RAT...I am sure you don't even read most of what you cut and paste and I know you don't research what the truth is; that's more than obvious.

MAGONSDAUGHTER

Monday, January 12, 2015 4:11 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
The independent, now theirs a news source. Step right in, here ye here ye. Read your news and find a date all in the same place.

I used to read the Independent when I lived in the UK. It was not as good as the Guardian, but a clear step above the Sun and the Daily Telegraph.

BTW "There's"

THGRRI

Monday, January 12, 2015 4:27 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by Magonsdaughter:
Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
The independent, now theirs a news source. Step right in, here ye here ye. Read your news and find a date all in the same place.

I used to read the Independent when I lived in the UK. It was not as good as the Guardian, but a clear step above the Sun and the Daily Telegraph.

BTW "There's"

I stand corrected, although THERE'S a line crossed when a newspaper goes into the dating game don't you think?

Besides my point was that SIGNYM trolls the news to cherry pick stories that expose faults of the west only. Her sources submit facts taken out of context based on assumptions and criteria from persons and groups that judge based on their ideology. Therefore it severs little purpose and should be ignored.

Where you a school teacher or some thin?

MAGONSDAUGHTER

Monday, January 12, 2015 5:44 AM (P)

Well we are all guilty of cherry picking, don't you think? I think it's reasonable to check out someone's sources when they post, but perhaps you shouldn't always assume that because you don't like what is being said, that the source is dodgy.

Lots of reputable newspapers run dating ads here, so perhaps it's a cultural thing that doens't happen in the US. The London Review of Books, which is a very prestigous literary mag also runs them. They are in fact the best part of the mag.

Not a teacher. Not even very good at spelling, but I get driven crazy by the misuse of 'their' and 'there' and 'your' and 'you're'. I get that we all make mistakes, but when someone can't tell the difference, it grates on me.

THGRRI

Monday, January 12, 2015 6:00 AM (P)

Still missing the point MAGONSDAUGHTER.

SIGNYM is a west hating wacko who posts a subjective mismatch of facts and falsehoods designed to further her agenda; bash the west. She has the mentality of a Troll. Nothing she posts is worth a glance past her motives for posting it. If that were to change so would my responses to her. That is very, very unlikely.

THGRRI

Monday, January 12, 2015 6:15 AM (P)

Quote:

Not a teacher. Not even very good at spelling, but I get driven crazy by the misuse of 'their' and 'there' and 'your' and 'you're'. I get that we all make mistakes, but when someone can't tell the difference, it grates on me.

It's not that I can't tell the difference. It's because I am thinking of what I am typing and not so much words spelled differently yet sound the same. It's little more than a type o.

MAGONSDAUGHTER

Monday, January 12, 2015 9:27 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
Still missing the point MAGONSDAUGHTER.

SIGNYM is a west hating wacko who posts a subjective mismatch of facts and falsehoods designed to further her agenda; bash the west. She has the mentality of a Troll. Nothing she posts is worth a glance past her motives for posting it. If that were to change so would my responses to her. That is very, very unlikely.

I disagree. I've had lots of interesting conversations with signy on a range of issues. She is clearly very criticial of US policy, particularly foreign policy, but she aint alone in the world on that one, bud.

I might not agree with her on a range of issues, but she's not a troll. She has strong views, which differ from your own. That's all.

Some americans can be very touchy when their country's policies are criticised. I've been called an American-hater on these boards more than once. I understand that it can feel offensive to have one's country criticised, but it's pretty important that different voices, dissenting voices are tolerated.

MAGONSDAUGHTER

Monday, January 12, 2015 9:27 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:

Not a teacher. Not even very good at spelling, but I get driven crazy by the misuse of 'their' and 'there' and 'your' and 'you're'. I get that we all make mistakes, but when someone can't tell the difference, it grates on me.

It's not that I can't tell the difference. It's because I am thinking of what I am typing and not so much words spelled differently yet sound the same. It's little more than a type o.

Fair enough.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, January 14, 2015 6:50 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by Magonsdaughter:
Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
The independent, now theirs a news source. Step right in, here ye here ye. Read your news and find a date all in the same place.

I used to read the Independent when I lived in the UK. It was not as good as the Guardian, but a clear step above the Sun and the Daily Telegraph.

BTW "There's"

Better than Sun? Does it have a Page 3?

JO753

Wednesday, January 14, 2015 5:18 PM (P)

Remember Samantha Fox?

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.nooalf.com

KPO

Thursday, January 15, 2015 4:59 AM (P)

A good article:

"The Russian Threat Runs Out of Fuel"

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...l-gros-2015-01

Quote:
And oil prices are not Russia’s only problem. Western sanctions, which seemed to constitute only a pinprick a few months ago, appear to have inflicted serious damage, with the ruble having lost nearly half its value against the US dollar last year. Though financial markets will calm down when the ruble’s exchange rate settles into its new equilibrium, Russia’s economy will remain weak, forcing the country’s leaders to make tough choices.

Against this background, a stalemate in the Donbas seems more likely than an outright offensive aimed at occupying the remainder of the region and establishing a land corridor to Crimea – the outcome that many in the West initially feared. President Vladimir Putin’s new Novorossya project simply cannot progress with oil prices at their current level.

To be sure, Russia will continue to challenge Europe. But no amount of posturing can offset the disintegration of the economy’s material base caused by the new equilibrium in the oil market. In this sense, the US has come to Europe’s rescue in a different way: Its production of shale oil and gas might is likely to play a greater role in keeping Russia at bay than NATO troops on Europe’s eastern borders.

It's not personal. It's just war.

THGRRI

Thursday, January 15, 2015 5:26 AM (P)

Again, still missing the point MAGONSDAUGHTER.

It is my opinion that you do not get to play the role of attack dog against the west, when things are worse for people in the East and you not only deny that, but defend the East with lies and deception.

If you have not picked up on that perhaps you should pay better attention to her patterns. You miss a lot like her agenda and also what others post in response to her. Try reading the posts before thinking you understand what is being said in response to her and why.

See if you can't pick up on how she quotes sources inaccurately and weaves her own comments into the quoted text deceptively.

ELVISCHRIST

Thursday, January 15, 2015 5:41 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:

Not a teacher. Not even very good at spelling, but I get driven crazy by the misuse of 'their' and 'there' and 'your' and 'you're'. I get that we all make mistakes, but when someone can't tell the difference, it grates on me.

It's not that I can't tell the difference. It's because I am thinking of what I am typing and not so much words spelled differently yet sound the same. It's little more than a type o.

Positive or negative?

ELVISCHRIST

Thursday, January 15, 2015 5:43 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
Again, still missing the point MAGONSDAUGHTER.

It is my opinion that you do not get to play the role of attack dog against the west, when things are worse for people in the East and you not only deny that, but defend the East with lies and deception.

If you have not picked up on that perhaps you should pay better attention to her patterns. You miss a lot like her agenda and also what others post in response to her. Try reading the posts before thinking you understand what is being said in response to her and why.

See if you can't pick up on how she quotes sources inaccurately and weaves her own comments into the quoted text deceptively.

Perhaps you could provide some examples, given your expertise on the matter.

THGRRI

Thursday, January 15, 2015 5:22 PM (P)

I have, many times and I am not going to make a career of it. For those who have not noticed what SIGNYM is about, even though some here have been exposing her and another pretty extensively makes me wonder.

Examples I'm afraid would be wasted on you. There have been hundreds in recent months. If you still don't get it, then there is no hope a few more would make a difference.

Think about it. It is the same for MAGANSDAUGTHER. With all the posts in recent months it is beyond me how she could be confronting me with the argument she is. She must not have been following the many other threads. If she has then she must have been ???, to the many lies, deceptions and subjective posts by SIGNYM and 1KIKI, myself and others have confronted them about.

If you are going to cherry pick the down trodden you are going to champion and deny all others, then you are really not championing anyone. You are only hiding your agenda behind them. And that has been thoroughly exposed.

ELVISCHRIST

Thursday, January 15, 2015 7:07 PM (P)

So no cites, then?

I wish I could say I was surprised.

THGRRI

Friday, January 16, 2015 4:52 AM (P)

I do not waste my time digging up examples for those who have had them laid out at their feet on numerous occasions and are still incapable of recognizing them for him or her self. It is just a waste of time.

I will however throw you a bone. Start at the beginning of the Russia invades Ukraine thread and by the time you get through it you will have seen hundreds of examples. If you do that, I will tell you where to look next for more. Not to worry, it won't take much effort at all.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, January 16, 2015 5:26 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by JO753:
Remember Samantha Fox?

As well as Keeley Hazell.

SIGNYM

Friday, January 16, 2015 5:42 PM (P)

Quote:
Besides my point was that SIGNYM trolls the news to cherry pick stories that expose faults of the west only. Her sources submit facts taken out of context based on assumptions and criteria from persons and groups that judge based on their ideology. Therefore it severs little purpose and should be ignored.

Well, if you MUST know, I "cherry picked" this story from that radical-left, west-hating organization NPR. In fact, it was from that serious and intense foreign-policy show called "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me" ... which is in fact a news quiz show where they pick up strange stories from across the world and have fun with them.

In this particular case, the strange story was about regulation being written by the Home Office in the UK, commanding daycare teachers to screen their young charges for "terrorist tendencies". The host and guests had quite a bit of fun with that one, particularly as ALL toddlers are terrorists from time to time! But it was such a bizarre story, I just couldn't believe it until I found at least a couple of sources on the internet ("Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me" sometimes tosses a few ringers on, or adds to the story to make it seem more bizarre than it really is.) And seeing as it dovetailed so well with what we were discussing, I thought I'd post it.

You should listen to that show, it's pretty funny!

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

THGRRI

Saturday, January 17, 2015 12:36 AM (P)

First quote is from me that SIGNYM just reposted. The next is her.

Quote:

THGRRI
Besides my point was that SIGNYM trolls the news to cherry pick stories that expose faults of the west only. Her sources submit facts taken out of context based on assumptions and criteria from persons and groups that judge based on their ideology. Therefore it severs little purpose and should be ignored.

Quote:

SIGNYM
Well, if you MUST know, I "cherry picked" this story from that radical-left, west-hating organization NPR. In fact, it was from that serious and intense foreign-policy show called "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me" ... which is in fact a news quiz show where they pick up strange stories from across the world and have fun with them.

My point was and remains you only seek out stories that bash the west. So tell me how this is different? The show you refer to is not cited with a link and it is a comedy show. They search for stupid headlines to poke fun at. Again, they search for stupid headlines to poke fun at. You search for stupid headlines to post that bash the west and are salted with untruths and spin. Another problem I had with it is you post it here as a story we should be considering as factual and as giving an accurate accounting. This is a story that comes from a self-proclaimed radical. I similarly pointed out that the link you provided also offers a dating service. Not very professional.

Once again I am forced to point out the way you answer posts with responses that suggest the post was talking about something else. Once again, my point was you lie and only point out faults of the West. You have a communist agenda. Therefore not only should you not be taken seriously, but you should be ridiculed as well for being so erroneous.

SIGNYM

Saturday, January 17, 2015 11:38 AM (P)

I didn't "seek out" the show. I was working in the kitchen, as I do on the weekend, listening to the radio as I'm wont to do. The show IS a radio show. However, there is a link with a transcript, which I've very kindly found for you. (You're welcome.)

Quote:
SAGAL: Remember the underwear bomber? This might be the Pampers bomber?

DICKINSON: You mean carrying large loads in their diapers?

(LAUGHTER)

SAGAL: Does anybody - can anybody guess?

BRIAN BABYLON: ISIS?

SAGAL: Who are?

BABYLON: A terrorist?

SAGAL: Yes. They are supposed to be looking for toddler terrorists.

POUNDSTONE: Yes.

(APPLAUSE)

DICKINSON: No.

POUNDSTONE: Oh, yeah.

SAGAL: Yes, under Britain's...

DICKINSON: How they ever met a toddler?

SAGAL: Well, that's the thing.

DICKINSON: They're all terrorists. Crazy.

(LAUGHTER)

BABYLON: I mean, what is it like - gaga, googoo, Osama bin Laden?

SAGAL: Something like that. Well, under Britain's new antiterrorism plan, nursery school teachers are required to report 3 and 4-year-olds that show terroristic tendencies.

BABYLON: What is that?

SAGAL: This includes tantrums, always refusing to nap and at snack time, attempting to hijack airplane spoon that's coming in for its landing.

http://www.wbur.org/npr/376329075/panel-round-one

But the reason why I sought out ANOTHER source is because I just couldn't believe what I heard. The panel does that ... adds oddball comments to extend the absurdity of the news item. I just couldn't believe it was real.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

THGRRI

Saturday, January 17, 2015 7:42 PM (P)

Where you first heard about the topic is of less concern to me than what and how you post, but you know that. You have been at this a long time. You chose to address my comment about the show and evade the plagiarism and manipulation of others researched work accusations I hurled at you.

When I post a response to something you say it is for the benefit of others not you. Why, because for me to respond to you as though you actually gave consideration to something that did not fit into your distorted view of the world, would mean I did not get the big picture of SYGNMY.

This post as well is for others to see how I responded back to you, not to illicit anything else from you.

SIGNYM

Saturday, January 17, 2015 9:58 PM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:

Where you first heard about the topic is of less concern to me than what and how you post, but you know that. You have been at this a long time. You chose to address my comment about the show and evade the plagiarism and manipulation of others researched work accusations I hurled at you.

When I post a response to something you say it is for the benefit of others not you. Why, because for me to respond to you as though you actually gave consideration to something that did not fit into your distorted view of the world, would mean I did not get the big picture of SYGNMY.

This post as well is for others to see how I responded back to you, not to illicit anything else from you.

I responded fully to your accusation of "plagiarism" here. http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=59022 But to help you out with your apparent confusion of what plagiarism is, here is the definition

Quote:
Plagiarism is the "wrongful appropriation" and "stealing and publication" of another author's "language, thoughts, ideas, or expressions" and the representation of them as one's own original work.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagiarism

Another author. One.
But I gave you some leeway. Assume I'm a particularly sneaky plagiarist. Maybe I kyped the publication of two other authors. Maybe even three!
But dozens? Yanno, at that point, it's no longer plagiarism, it's research.

But even worse, the longest phrase that your checker found was 10 words ... 10 words. One of the phrases that your checker flagged was

Quote:
Commission (EC), the IMF, and the European Central Bank (ECB)

Do you have any idea HOW MANY people have written that phrase? That's because it's a brief description of "the troika" (I'm surprised you didn't flag that one too!), which is setting EU monetary policy. That's not plagiarism, son, that's just a lot of people writing on a common topic.

The fact that your plagiarism checker found short common phrases in common with MANY sources doesn't indicate plagiarism. What it indicates is the phrases are so common they can be found in DOZENS of works.

Apparently, you not only have no idea what plagiarism is, I think you just don't know what it's like when somebody posts something about which they have some actual knowledge. And since it's such a new experience (to you) you assume it must be fake somehow.

But if that argument doesn't sway you, try this: I realize that almost nobody here welcomes what I have to say, and therefore will not come to my defense on ... well, almost anything. OTOH, you'll notice that your "friends" here aren't jumping on this particular bandwagon of yours either. There's a reason why you're all alone on this "plagiarism" accusation even though you've pushed it in more than one thread.

Well, I hope you learned something!

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

JONGSSTRAW

Saturday, January 17, 2015 10:11 PM (P)

Gorramit Sniggy, that obnoxious imbecile is forcing me to side with you. It's just not fair.

SIGNYM

Saturday, January 17, 2015 11:21 PM (P)

FWIW, I apologize on THUGR's behalf.

Carry on!

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

SIGNYM

Saturday, January 17, 2015 11:32 PM (P)

Well, who could have predicted???

Russia's Modest Proposal To Greece: "Exit Europe And We Will Lift The Food Import Ban"

Quote:
It has not been a good week for Greece: first we learned that its treasury has run dry as Greece have stop paying all taxes ahead of the elections (and likely after), making further reforms virtually impossible as the government simply does not have the cash to promote economic changes; then we found out that first two then all four of the largest Greek banks have submitted Emergency Liquidity Assistance requests to the ECB to preserve liquidity in light of a deposit run that is picking up pace. And yesterday, adding insult to injury, Spiegel leaked that while seeking preapproval from Merkel for his QE program to be announced next week, Draghi told the Germans that Greek bonds won't be among the securities monetized by the ECB.
It almost makes the Greeks wonder what's the point of staying in the Eurozone and keeping the Euro if all it leads to is 50% youth unemployment, 25% total unemployment, and unprecedented pain and suffering as a result of the internal devaluation that will continue indefinitely since Greece, courtesy of the Euro, is unable to engage in an external one.

Of course, the Greek population will be able to voice its opinion next Sunday when it holds general elections, which will almost surely be won by Tsipras who has threatened on numerous occasions to renegotiate the Greek bailout, something Germany has made quite clear is not a topic for debate, and that a Grexit is assured if Greece thinks it can hold Europe hostage with threats of Eurozone collapse.

And just to make things interesting, overnight Russia told a beleaguered Greece, and specifically its hurting farmers, that it "may lift its ban on food imports from Greece in the event it quits the European Union" according to Russian Minister of Agriculture Nikolai Fyodorov who spoke in Berlin on Friday.

“If Greece has to leave the European Union, we will build our own relations with it, the food ban will not be applicable to it,” Fyodorov said as reported by Tass.

In other words, Russia has casually thrown out feelers to Greece (and any other peripheral European country) and given it the option of joining the greater Russian sphere of influence (because the USSR 2.0 and satellites is still not trademarked), should it decide that 5 years after the first Greek "bailout" things for the country caught in an endless depression are as good as they will get with a bunch of Goldman bankers in charge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-17/russias-modest-proposal-greec
e-exit-europe-and-we-will-lift-food-import-ban

Do I get points for being close?? Anyway, gotta go for the while. Duty really DOES call.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

THGRRI

Sunday, January 18, 2015 1:23 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
Gorramit Sniggy, that obnoxious imbecile is forcing me to side with you. It's just not fair.

Wow, you actually put together a complete sentence. I hope you didn't hurt yourself?

THGRRI

Sunday, January 18, 2015 1:48 AM (P)

SYGNYM it is that you change the reporting of others by adding things into it as though they're saying this, when they're saying no such thing. If they report something that includes several countries you will include your own as though it is a part of the original content. You will also add your own comments and subtly change the context from it's original meaning.

Hey, you know all this. After all it's you doing it. Posting back to me what the definition of plagiarism is only gives me a chuckle. If you want to impress upon all here your understanding of what the global market is doing and what that means. Try using your skill set to explain it instead of cutting and pasting 81% of someone else's researched information. Don't twist it with 19% of your delusions mixed seamlessly in, manipulating the content.

JONGSSTRAW if you need help understanding any of this, ask someone else.

SIGNYM

Sunday, January 18, 2015 8:57 PM (P)

I'm going to repeat this, but probably the last time.

When I use "the reporting of others" I use the QUOTE function.
When I use "the reporting of others" I post a link as to where the original may be found.
When I use "the reporting of others" I post it unmodified.
If I find comments in, or add comments to, "the reporting of others" for whatever reason the comments [are placed in brackets, followed by a name -SIGNY] so that everyone can see what was added and who added it.
When I use a foreign language, or borrow a particularly trenchant phrase or quote from someone else, or a title, I often use italics rather than quotes, as I find it much easier to locate italicized phrases than quotation marks, n'est ce pas?.
I also use italics for emphasis, so context is important.
When quoting previous posts, I tend to use a "flat format" ... that is, only one level of the QUOTE function, but everyone's thoughts on the topic posted in linear fashion followed by their name (or some version of it) so that the context is clear.
I try to be exceptionally visually clear with formatting and attribution so that anyone with reasonable scanning and reading skills can tell where one person's ideas end and another's begin.

If I post an opinion or a thought and it's not in quote format, it is MY opinion or thought, not someone else's. If it is a commonly discussed topic (common in the larger world, not necessarily on this website) my posts will necessarily refer to the SAME FACTS as other sites, and will probably have phrases that are in common with DOZENS of other articles or opinions on the topic. I'm neither borrowing nor lending intellectual property, this is simply a product of many people discussing the same topic. So when I post ideas or thoughts as mine, they are MY opinions or thoughts, not anyone else's.

How you can even imagine that I would bother to go to dozens of articles and put together even one paragraph by cutting and pasting random words and phrases together, like some insane whistleblower who is pasting together a letter to the editor from magazine clippings, is beyond me. It would be a lot of work, and completely pointless.

I really have no idea what you find so disorienting about my posts. I use commonly-known facts, and commonly-used phrases and definitions, but I have my own ideas. I'm not trying to pass off anyone else's ideas or opinions as mine, or my opinions or ideas as anyone else's. You're a very confused person, I really think you should take time to try and understand the source of your own confusion.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

THGRRI

Sunday, January 18, 2015 10:01 PM (P)

Guns and bombs help keep Russia out, do you have enough???

KPO

Saturday, January 31, 2015 4:51 AM (P)

via Signy:

Many pro-separatist analysts are predicting a "false front" so horrific as to lead to the complete dissolution of Ukraine, with direct street-to-street fighting across much of the nation. In their opinion, the Kiev army is so thoroughly diminished, and the aid that Kiev so desperately needs won't be forthcoming, that the only answer for the USA (since it can't win) is to have Ukraine burn itself to the ground, since the USA doesn't want Russia to "take over" a functioning nation either.

I can't say that I believe this scenario, but it's been mentioned so often by so many on the other side that it seems to be a real fear, so I thought to pass it along.

Also, not sure if I've posted this here yet: "Ukraine: Closer and closer to major-powers war" - http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58859

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Tuesday, February 3, 2015 3:19 AM (P)

Signy:

"Uglegorsk was taken two days ago, Debaltseve supposedly just fell today. That means about 8000 UKROP troops are now surrounded.

Kolomoysky, an dual Ukrainian-Israeli citizen, has a 5,000-man personal guard, and is busy selling defective body armor to UKROP at vastly inflated prices.

Various state assets and enterprises are being grabbed by whichever oligarch has the most power.

Hospitals and the army are NOT to report casualties to anyone except the military central command.

Potential conscripts are running away, over any border to anywhere.

The government has declared a state of high alert, controlling media and travel.

Various rightwing militias are gathering in Kiev. There are many rumors that Poroshenko will be overthrown.

Anyway, here a Russian post I found which seems very specific and fairly disturbing in its assessment of what is happening in Ukraine:

Quote:
Ukraine After Poroshenko--Analysis by Aleksandr Rodzhers..."

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Wednesday, February 11, 2015 5:51 PM (P)

Quote:
Quote:
THGRRI - "Look how much of the world is in league with the West and what is left of your precious Russia comrade."

Sigy - "Get back to me about that in ten years."

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Saturday, February 14, 2015 3:16 AM (P)

KPO, at one time your thread served a useful function, but you're quoting posts of mine that aren't even predictions. That's just biased and mean-spirited.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Friday, February 20, 2015 6:56 PM (P)

kpo - "That zerohedge is a clown. I still say if Putin moves on Mariupol his covert war will start to unravel."

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Friday, February 20, 2015 7:00 PM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO, at one time your thread served a useful function, but you're quoting posts of mine that aren't even predictions. That's just biased and mean-spirited.

I am certainly posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. That for me IS the function of this thread. But if there is any quote of yours that you feel has been taken out of context please expand on and clarify it.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Sunday, February 22, 2015 10:43 PM (P)

Quote:
I am certainly posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong

There are endless spaces in OTHER threads to debate the general correctness of anyone's particular ideas. I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".

This used to be a PREDICTIONS thread.

Glad to see you screwed up your own (at one time) originally neat idea with your own pettiness and hatred! You just outed yourself as a small-minded bigot- but I knew that anyway.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Sunday, February 22, 2015 11:19 PM (P)

What I said was:

Quote:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong.

Quote:
I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".

So long as it's something that will be proved right or wrong in time, please do!

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Monday, February 23, 2015 8:43 PM (P)

Originally posted by THGRRI: Thursday, August 14, 2014 7:37 PM
Putin is creating a situation that is very short term. No one is going to want to invest in a country that is so unpredictable. Children born today will see the oil fields of Russia start drying up before they hit mid-life. Russia manufactures very little except hackers. They are fast retreating back into a criminal state like North Korea. To bad because a rouge state such as theirs has a negative effect on the world.

SIGNYM

Monday, February 23, 2015 9:05 PM (P)

Quote:
What I said was:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO

I'm going to start posting into this thread every single idea of yours that I think is "wrong".-SIGNY
So long as it's something that will be proved right or wrong in time, please do!-KPO

But it's not that the quotes of mine that you posted didn't begin with "I predict", they didn't even have to do with the future. They were about things that were happening at the moment, or had happened in the recent past, and they were described by other people- heck, they weren't even mine!

With your logic, ANY quote or post about some current or recent event could be xfered here because, yanno, time will tell whether Russia really invaded Ukraine on Aug 14 2014, or whether 2014 really WAS the hottest year, or whether the Hennessey Venom supercar really broke the landspeed record at 270+mph or did it fall a shade short.

The most excellent thing about predictions - the thing that sets them apart from discussions/interpretations/noodlings/ opinions on events - is their ability to demonstrate whether the person's mental model is robust enough to be projected on events that haven't even happened yet

That's a powerful tool, and necessary for any sort of scientific understanding of the world. People can noodle on and discuss and interpret until the cows come home, but until someone says When I drop these two balls of different weights at the same time they will land at the same time ... and the prediction turns out to be true ... ONLY THEN can you have some confidence that the person has a fundamental grasp of processes that are driving events.

This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....") and their understanding of current events which leads them to make predictions. All of the other threads are already devoted to the rightness and wrongness of various opinions.

I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine, and are trying to dilute my actual predictions with chaff and fluff that isn't even mine, so that you can prove me "wrong".

And I think you're doing this with other people too. This thread needs a more objective moderator.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Monday, February 23, 2015 10:31 PM (P)

Quote:
This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....")

I disagree. All predictions come with probabilities attached, and those probabilities are rarely 100% - they don't even have to be more than 50%. For example I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster around the airspace of a NATO country involving a civilian airliner and a Russian military aircraft with its transponder turned off. I would put that prediction at maybe 30% - in other words I think it probably WON'T happen, but still a 30% chance of a major air disaster is significant and worth mentioning.

When you say things like "There are rumours that X..." or "I'm not sure myself but some are saying that Y..." you are effectively giving predictions with low probabilities. You are not confident that they will happen, and maybe you think that they most likely won't, but YOU obviously think there's a chance that they could be right otherwise you wouldn't be mentioning them.

Quote:
I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine,

Lol, that's definitely not it.

Quote:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO

I should adjust that. It's not about me being certain that your predictions are wrong, but being a lot more doubtful of them than you. So your prediction that Ukraine's goverment could be toppled by far right groups seems to be in the 'it could happen but most likely won't' range, i.e. a probability of something like 10-40% (judging by the wording in your post, you can correct me if I'm wrong). I on the other hand am fairly confident that this won't happen, so my confidence in this prediction is about 1%. We have a large discrepancy between our probability estimates. If in the next few years time Ukraine has a far right revolution it will be a big dent to the validity of my worldview, because it's something that I thought had almost no chance of happening. And it will be a victory for your worldview. If on the other hand Ukraine has no far right revolution, and doesn't even come close to one, that will seem to vindicate my worldview.

So no, predictions don't have to be confident - they just have to be confident compared to other people's. The predictions I dislike and want to ban from this thread are the predictions that are really obvious, that anyone could have made, like "The IMF will implement an austerity plan in Ukraine." Well, duh.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Wednesday, February 25, 2015 7:55 PM (P)

KPO, nearly every single sentence that you posted is wrong, quite often in multiple ways. All you're doing is justifying your bias (again). But since you're willing to bend your ethics and adjust your "evidence", I guess it's not surprising that you'd twist a few definitions and pervert the scientific method.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Thursday, February 26, 2015 7:24 AM (P)

To make Signy happy, here's one from Kiki, that I missed:

Kiki (August 30th 2014) - "But I think Russia has reached the point where it's as ready as it can be to withstand full-on economic (and perhaps other) warfare. And after months of genuine attempts at negotiations it's as clear as it can possibly be that nothing Russia does, or refrains from doing, or says, or offers or proves, is going to change the actions of the Washington-London financialists. So, rather than interpret this as a snit-fit, perhaps it's a considered option. The west has made negotiations fruitless, and Russia can now afford to stop trying."

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Thursday, February 26, 2015 7:43 PM (P)

Another Signy set of predictions, from September:

Signy - "But, as I said, just as autopsies and an investigative report of the Odessa Trades Union killings will never come out, an investigation of the sniper shooting will never be published either, and there's serious question about results of the MH17 investigation ever seeing the light of day as well - most of the principal investigating parties- Nederlands, Ukraine, Australia, Belgium signed a “Non-disclosure Agreement”."

You've done a lot of boasting about the 'accuracy' of your Ukraine predictions Signy, and that's why I've made an effort to start recording them. My guess is people remember the predictions they got right, but forget the ones they got wrong. Good luck with the MH17 one...

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Friday, February 27, 2015 9:25 AM (P)

Quote:
This thread should be preserved for predictions ... no matter how phrased, but actual predictions ... that can be traced back to specific posters (not a post that begins "Rumors say that....")-SIGNY

I disagree. All predictions come with probabilities attached

No, they don't. Neither Newton's nor Euler's nor Einstein's equations had probabilities attached. Neither did Darwin's theory of evolution. In fact, neither do the predictions on this board. I can't think of a single prediction that anyone has made here with probabilities attached.

Quote:
and those probabilities are rarely 100% - they don't even have to be more than 50%. For example I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster around the airspace of a NATO country involving a civilian airliner and a Russian military aircraft with its transponder turned off. I would put that prediction at maybe 30% - in other words I think it probably WON'T happen, but still a 30% chance of a major air disaster is significant and worth mentioning.

When you say things like "There are rumours that X..." or "I'm not sure myself but some are saying that Y..." you are effectively giving predictions with low probabilities. You are not confident that they will happen, and maybe you think that they most likely won't, but YOU obviously think there's a chance that they could be right otherwise you wouldn't be mentioning them.

When someone "predicts" an event with a low probability .... thermodynamics says that there is a chance, albeit a very low one, that a tea kettle will spontaneously boil ... they're not predicting that it WILL happen, and if the chances are less than 50% that it will happen, they are predicting the inverse: that it likely WON'T happen. Only KPO could get that backwards in order to "make a point".

Quote:
I think you're just sick of me being right about Ukraine- SIGNY
Lol, that's definitely not it.-KPO

But of course, you haven't been able to demonstrate that my predictions are wrong, either. After all, didn't I predict that Ukraine would fall apart economically, socially and politically, and that the government in Kiev would resort to heavy-handed measures?

Quote:
posting quotes of yours that I think are wrong, and that time will show are wrong. - KPO
I should adjust that. It's not about me being certain that your predictions are wrong, but being a lot more doubtful of them than you. So your prediction that Ukraine's goverment could be toppled by far right groups seems to be in the 'it could happen but most likely won't' range, i.e. a probability of something like 10-40% (judging by the wording in your post, you can correct me if I'm wrong). I on the other hand am fairly confident that this won't happen, so my confidence in this prediction is about 1%. We have a large discrepancy between our probability estimates. If in the next few years time Ukraine has a far right revolution it will be a big dent to the validity of my worldview, because it's something that I thought had almost no chance of happening. And it will be a victory for your worldview. If on the other hand Ukraine has no far right revolution, and doesn't even come close to one, that will seem to vindicate my worldview.

It already has had one far-right revolution; after all, those were the violent spearhead of the Maidan. You just didn't recognize ti for what it was.

Quote:
So no, predictions don't have to be confident - they just have to be confident compared to other people's.

You're attaching "confidence-meters" to predictions? That's not science, nor is it prediction.

Quote:
The predictions I dislike and want to ban from this thread are the predictions that are really obvious, that anyone could have made, like "The IMF will implement an austerity plan in Ukraine." Well,

KPO

Friday, February 27, 2015 6:45 PM (P)

Quote:
No, they don't. Neither Newton's nor Euler's nor Einstein's equations had probabilities attached.

These are not predictions though, these are mathematical laws of the universe. You can use them to *make* predictions, of course, and in many cases these predictions will be 100% certain - e.g. dropping an apple and it falling. You see the '100%' and the word 'certain' in that sentence? That describes probability, dearie.

Quote:
I can't think of a single prediction that anyone has made here with probabilities attached.

So when I say "I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster..." you don't see any probability there? This was the very example I used to illustrate my point, so if you can't see probability or confidence here, then I'm not surprised you don't see it anywhere else.

A question for you. Four statements:

1. "I am absolutely convinced that 2012 will be the year of the Mayan Apocalypse and the world will end."
2. "It's not definite but I think there's a good chance we will see the end of the world in 2012."

3. "I've heard a lot about the Mayan Apocalypse, and I think it probably won't happen, but you never know."
4. "There is no chance that there will be a Mayan Apocalypse in 2012.

Is there any difference between 1) and 2), and between 3) and 4)? Are the people making these predictions just as crazy or level headed as each other?

Quote:
if the chances are less than 50% that it will happen, they are predicting the inverse: that it likely WON'T happen. Only KPO could get that backwards in order to "make a point".

Well you've understood one thing, at least. Why you're repeating my own point back to me and telling me I said the opposite, I'm not sure.

Quote:
But of course, you haven't been able to demonstrate that my predictions are wrong, either. After all, didn't I predict that Ukraine would fall apart economically, socially and politically, and that the government in Kiev would resort to heavy-handed measures?

Yawn. I've taken apart your predictions once before, there's no need to do it again (although maybe I should post it to this thread). As I say, you've done so much boasting on the strength of a very mixed set of predictions, that I've taken to recording your predictions on Ukraine more closely, to see if you are really the oracle you think you are.

I guess you feel victimised because I'm quoting your low-probability/low-confidence predictions - things you think could happen but probably won't. The reason why I'm doing it is because a lot of them to me sound like statement 3) above. YOU think the Mayan apocalypse could happen, but probably won't - whereas I think it's foolish to even entertain the idea. Time may or may not vindicate our differing levels of confidence, and the worldviews they come from. The fact is, Signy, that if Kiev's government IS toppled by fascists*, YOU will remind us all how YOU said it could happen, and YOU will boast about your awesome insights into the situation that allowed you to foresee it. You will say something like, "Some of us saw that this might happen, when people like kpo doubted..." And this is all fine. But it has to work both ways. If after 5 years there isn't the slightest hint of a far-right revolution... well, you look a little bit silly for entertaining the notion. It's time to start holding the Signy worldview truly to account.

*It occurs to me that a 'fascist revolution in Ukraine' wan't the best prediction for me to use as an example and to talk about at length, as you will characterise ANY revolution in Kiev as a 'fascist' revolution - as you did for the Maidan revolution. So in a sense all you're predicting is that there will be a protest movement that leads to Poroshenko's demise... which I hav

SIGNYM

Friday, February 27, 2015 7:48 PM (P)

Quote:
No, they don't. Neither Newton's nor Euler's nor Einstein's equations had probabilities attached.- SIGNY
These are not predictions though, these are mathematical laws of the universe.-KPO

People often misperceive that their view of the universe IS "the universe", but in reality the universe doesn't have "laws" and it doesn't have anyone enforcing them: You won't get a speeding ticket if you manage to go faster than light.

As far at what the equations are, they ARE predictions: where are Mars and Jupiter going to be in relation to the earth in 220 days? How much energy is theoretically possible to extract from how much mass?

Quote:
You can use them to *make* predictions, of course, and in many cases these predictions will be 100% certain - e.g. dropping an apple and it falling. You see the '100%' and the word 'certain' in that sentence? That describes probability, dearie.

Actually, nothing is 100% certain, except the universe. If a small black hole goes shooting by at the time you drop an apple, it may take the apple with it.

Quote:
I can't think of a single prediction that anyone has made here with probabilities attached.-SIGNY
So when I say "I think it's possible that in the next couple of years we could see a major air disaster..." you don't see any probability there?

First of all, when you say something is "possible", it's not a prediction... it's an idea of a possibility.

It's possible that falling apple will be taken by a stray black hole.
It's possible that a tea kettle will spontaneously boil.
It's possible that Obama will stop droning Muslims before he leaves office.

Am I, any any sense, "predicting" the future? Or am I simply discussing potentialities? The difference between a prediction and an idea is that predictor thinks s/he has enough information to state what WILL happen, not what MIGHT happen. There are an uncountable number of events that MIGHT happen. Talking about them is not predicting, although it may help sharpen our knowledge so that we might make a prediction.

Quote:
This was the very example I used to illustrate my point, so if you can't see probability or confidence here, then I'm not surprised you don't see it anywhere else.-KPO

I could see it in your example, to illustrate a point, I just can't ever recall anybody else doing it spontaneously. Generally, it seems that if posters are certain enough to make an actual prediction - a statement which specifically says what will happen in the future- they don't shade their predictions with equivocation.

Quote:
A question for you. Four statements:

1. "I am absolutely convinced that 2012 will be the year of the Mayan Apocalypse and the world will end."
2. "It's not definite but I think there's a good chance we will see the end of the world in 2012."
3. "I've heard a lot about the Mayan Apocalypse, and I think it probably won't happen, but you never know."
4. "There is no chance that there will be a Mayan Apocalypse in 2012.

Is there any difference between 1) and 2), and between 3) and 4)? Are the people making these predictions just as crazy or level headed as each other?

First of all, most people making predictions don't generally shade their prediction as an "opinion", so statements #1 is mis-phrased: people who are convinced the world is going to end say "The world is going to end", not "I am absolutely convinced that..."

And you're conflating being "crazy" versus "level headed" with the question about "predictions" versus "discussion". What does being crazy or level-headed have to do with predicting?

A scientist who has an idea about something has to make a PREDICTION in order to find out whether his/her idea is correct. It can be on the order of som

KPO

Saturday, February 28, 2015 12:27 AM (P)

A very simple question for you Signy. A simple answer would be appreciated, but I won't hold my breath...

Is this a prediction:

"Russia will almost certainly need an IMF bailout in 2015."

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Monday, March 2, 2015 12:55 PM (P)

Quote:
Is this a prediction: "Russia will almost certainly need an IMF bailout in 2015." -KPO

Oh, the answer is "no".

The reason is because if the event DOESN'T happen, you can always say... well, there was a chance it wouldn't happen, that was just one of the possibilities. So what kind of "prediction" is that?

In science, you have to be definitive about your hypothesis, and if it takes the form of a prediction you have to be definitive about that too. If your prediction doesn't work out, then you have to figure out why.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Tuesday, March 3, 2015 3:41 AM (P)

You are lumping real world predictions in with scientific hypothesis testing, which convinces me that you don't understand the point of either.

Quote:
if the event DOESN'T happen, you can always say... well, there was a chance it wouldn't happen

You need to ask yourself Signy, in the real world with all its randomness, chaos, and uncontrolled variables, is there ANYTHING of real significance - wars, future presidents, climate etc. - that you can predict with 100% certainty? I notice that when you presented your famous Ukraine predictions, you did so with the introductory sentence 'plausible future news'. The word 'plausible' is not a substitute for 'certain'. You were attaching probability to your predictions - effectively saying "These things aren't certain, but I can see them happening". So were these 'predictions' of yours predictions or not?

For my part I'm quite happy that if someone predicts something and says, "I'm confident that..." or "I think there's a good chance that..." etc., that it counts as a prediction, and belongs in this thread. Some predictions will be more confident than others, but that's why I always make sure to be faithful to the original wording - even with people who I'm trying to catch out, like you Signy.

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Tuesday, March 3, 2015 3:51 AM (P)

Signy on the killing of Nemtsov:

Signy - "You're right. It's probably a false flag. Just like MH17. It will be used to gin up more sanctions against Russia, or build up support for some US-sponsored "color revolution", or some combination. That, or it was a nutcase Putin supporter."

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 4:47 PM (P)

KPO on the nature of predictions-

Anything goes, as long as I don't like it!

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

SIGNYM

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 4:55 PM (P)

Quote:
You need to ask yourself Signy, in the real world with all its randomness, chaos, and uncontrolled variables, is there ANYTHING of real significance - wars, future presidents, climate etc. - that you can predict with 100% certainty?

Just because you don't know with 100% certainty what the future will bring doesn't mean that you can shade your predictions about it. AFA my predictions about Ukraine, I made them very, very specific, and I wrote them as news articles, not as guesses. It's too bad I preceded it with "plausible" because I was sure of them as I was of the 2008 collapse, and of Bush II's invasion or Iraq, which I saw as a foregone conclusion several months before the fact, when Bush was still moving the goalposts and pretending like there was anything Saddam could do to stop it. Sometimes, you just know, yanno?

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 10:30 PM (P)

Quote:
AFA my predictions about Ukraine, I made them very, very specific, and I wrote them as news articles, not as guesses. It's too bad I preceded it with "plausible" because I was sure of them

Uh-huh... You were sure that Russia would send in troops to eastern Ukraine 'to protect Russian citizens'? That Russia would restrict sales of natural gas to Europe in response to Western sanctions, that Kiev would delay its national elections, that far-right Svoboda would gain control of Ukrainian internal security...? You were 'sure' about a lot of things that didn't happen Sig.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Thursday, March 5, 2015 9:03 AM (P)

Quote:
Uh-huh... You were sure that ... that far-right Svoboda would gain control of Ukrainian internal security...?

Um, the far right HAS gained control of Ukraine's internal security. I guess you didn't notice?

Quote:
After the appointment of the deputy commander of the punitive regiment "Azov" Vadim Trojan to the position of deputy head of the Department of Internal Affairs in Kiev region, outright fascists with swastika tattoos settled in the Kiev Regional Police Department. In the photo they are in the lecture hall of the Kiev regional PD.

The picture was posted by a known Nazi and schizophrenic Artem Bonov on his Vkontakte page, along with a video, where the assembled Nazi punishers heed Patriotic poems. Regiment "Azov" has not distinguished itself in combat, but became famous for lawlessness in the occupied territories of Donbass, primarily in Mariupol. Now they are being prepared to protect the order in Kiev region.

And - Yep, I made predictions that haven't come true (yet). But I noticed that you anticipated none of this. You were presuming that Ukraine would slide gracefully and gratefully into the bosom of the EU?

My guess is that my guesses are better than your predictions.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Thursday, March 5, 2015 6:50 PM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
Uh-huh... You were sure that ... that far-right Svoboda would gain control of Ukrainian internal security...?
Um, the far right HAS gained control of Ukraine's internal security. I guess you didn't notice?

Ok, completely different to your prediction of Svoboda taking over Ukraine's internal security, we have a single member of a related group (not Svoboda) being appointed to a minor government position - deputy head of internal affairs in just one region of Ukraine. Way to give yourself a 'win' for a truly terrible prediction Sig.

And just to really bring your point home, you post a photo of some completely different Azov members doing the Nazi salute. Well, here's a picture of a candidate of Front National (that French far-right but pro-Putin party you were cosying up to in the other thread) doing the Nazi salute:

In reality, since the Maidan revolution the much-hyped far-right parties Svoboda and Right Sector have completely failed to register in two national Ukrainian elections, and have gained no power in the Ukrainian government whatsoever. Meanwhile the far-right Azov battalion has won a very small amount of influence because of its reputation for tough fighting and despite its ideology.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Friday, March 6, 2015 5:55 PM (P)

"Yats", the Prime Minister of Ukraine, giving the traditional Nazi salute. The person to his right (our left) is Tahnybok, the leader of the far-right Svoboda Party.

Really, I'm far too busy to educate you on how the Nazis have become a large force in Kiev's internal security:

From the right-wing "shock troops" of the Maidan,
to the initial appointment of a right-wing politician to Kiev's Interior Ministry,
to the formation of the "national guard" consisting of (by now) battalions like the Azov and Aidar battalions - with weapons like tanks and rockets,
to the near-martial-law of Kiev,
to the outlawing of opposition parties from civil service ("lustration") and from legality
to the open appointment of Nazis to local governments,
to the near-martial-lay imposed by Kiev ....

you think that the rightwing does NOT have an outsized influence in the Kiev government?

Maybe you should read the USA cognoscenti magazine, Foreign Policy, and recognize that you are being played for a dupe:

Quote:
Pro-Russian forces have said they are fighting against Ukrainian nationalists and "fascists" in the conflict, and in the case of Azov and other battalions, these claims are essentially true.

These are no longer "predictions" but yet again another pointless expression of your bias. This really belongs in another thread. If you really want to discuss this topic, why don't you start another thread?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/30/preparing-for-war-with-ukraines-fa
scist-defenders-of-freedom/

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns. But that never stops the USA from trying!

KPO

Friday, March 6, 2015 6:45 PM (P)

Quote:
"Yats", the Prime Minister of Ukraine, giving the traditional Nazi salute.

Sometimes politicians get snapped in poses that look like Nazi salutes, and such images get used for propaganda purposes, etc. For example here's an example of your girl-crush Marine le Pen:

So I will need better evidence than your one grainy photograph that the (part Jewish) prime minister Yats is a closet Nazi.

Quote:
Really, I'm far too busy to educate you on how the Nazis have become a large force in Kiev's internal security:

Just answer this then: who is the most powerful and influential Nazi in Ukraine's supposedly Nazi-dominated government, and what position does he occupy?

Because all I see so far is rumour and insinuation about a few individuals in low-level positions, and your own heavily biased interpretation of Kiev's actions.

As for the existence of some fascists and Nazis fighting for Ukraine - well, there are a hell of a lot of fascists and Nazis fighting for the separatists too. This quote is from a Spanish communist volunteer who fought with the separatists:

Quote:

“Half of them are communists and the other half are Nazis,” they explained. “We fought together, communists and Nazis alike […]. We all want the same: social justice and the liberation of Russia from the Ukrainian invasion.”

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/02/27/inenglish/1425051026_915897.html?r
el=rosEP

An interesting read that article.

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Friday, March 6, 2015 7:00 PM (P)

SIGNYM

Monday, March 9, 2015 12:04 AM (P)

Quote:
So I will need better evidence than your one grainy photograph that the (part Jewish) prime minister Yats is a closet Nazi.

Well, he IS on stage with a known Nazi.

There are political candidates in the USA who've been derailed for making speeches to Nazi/ KKK groups.

I didn't say (and didn't mean to imply) that Yats is a closet Nazi. What I DID intend to show... and the person with whom Yats in onstage, Nazi salute or otherwise makes the point .... is that Yats is PANDERING to Nazis. And politicians don't pander to powerless groups.

AFA the rightwing in Ukraine, the fact that there are two rather large Nazi battalions (you know what a battalion is, right?) which were formed by the Interior Ministry speaks volumes. I'm too busy to track down for you all of the rightwing appointees and their oligarch backers (I had listed them right after the coup), but I might get back to this someday. In the meantime, since you seem to find this a topic of great interest, why don't you start a new thread, since you're shitting up your own predictions thread and therefore reducing its utility.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

SIGNYM

Monday, March 9, 2015 10:44 PM (P)

Quote:
I didn't say (and didn't mean to imply) that Yats is a closet Nazi. What I DID intend to show... and the person with whom Yats in onstage, Nazi salute or otherwise makes the point .... is that Yats is PANDERING to Nazis. And politicians don't pander to powerless groups.

Yep, thanks for addressing that point. And the whole rest of the post.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, March 12, 2015 5:06 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I'll make a conditional prediction.
IF the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) drops to 15,257; then I predict that there will be a bump up to between 16,155-17,050 which might take a week or month to occur, and then at some point (weeks or months) after bumping up to 16,150 or so, it will drop far below 15,000 for an extended period (months or years).

The condition was not met. Dow is back up to new all-time high. Over 18,000.

With the DJIA dropping a bit, I will update this.

I'll make a conditional prediction.
IF the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) drops to 15,545; then I predict that there will be a bump up to between 16,460-17,375 which might take a week or month to occur, and then at some point (weeks or months) after bumping up to 16,460 or so, it will drop far below 15,000 for an extended period (months or years).

KPO

Friday, March 20, 2015 4:20 AM (P)

From last year:

Auraptor - "It's growing, not melting."
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58555&p=1

From this year: "Arctic sea ice extent hits record low for winter"
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749

Honestly, a man could make a living betting on the exact opposite of whatever Auraptor predicts. The man is like an inverse-oracle.

It's not personal. It's just war.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Friday, March 20, 2015 5:44 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
From last year:

Auraptor - "It's growing, not melting."
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58555&p=1

From this year: "Arctic sea ice extent hits record low for winter"
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749

Honestly, a man could make a living betting on the exact opposite of whatever Auraptor predicts. The man is like an inverse-oracle.

Joseph A. Olson and Dr. Tim Ball would disagree with you.
http://www.fauxscienceslayer.com/

KPO

Friday, March 20, 2015 6:45 PM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Joseph A. Olson and Dr. Tim Ball would disagree with you.
http://www.fauxscienceslayer.com/

Wow, debunking topics as varied as AGW, multiculturalism, the big bang theory, evolution. Impressive that this guy is an 'expert' in so many different fields.

He says nothing about Arctic see ice though - and certainly nothing in response to the data that was released just this week.

It's not personal. It's just war.

SIGNYM

Saturday, March 21, 2015 8:56 PM (P)

Quote:
This is what's so sad and funny about you and Kiki - you both post such utter bullshit and yet you don't think even for a second that it's completely and utterly obvious (or you just don't care). OF COURSE you thought it was a nazi salute. OF COURSE you thought he'd been caught being a nazi. OF COURSE you thought you'd proven your point beyond reproach.

OF COURSE you're substituting your opinion for fact, again. OF COURSE you're engaging in fact-free allegation, again. NO WONDER you have such a hard time parsing your way through the world!

In all of the rightwing appointees that I LISTED lo these many months ago, for example HERE May 4, 2014

Quote:
MIKER- I call the Ukrainian security administration "fascists" because they are self-avowed Neo-Nazis who quote Hilter. I hate to be the one to have to keep looking stuff up for you, but here is the head of the Svoboda Party, which has three important assignments in internal security apparatus

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57955&mid=9
70325
, Yats was NOT among them. I didn't think he was a closet Nazi then, and I don't think he's one now. There are at least four significant groups competing for power in Ukraine:

1) The Banksters
Those who reflect the will of Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and the IMF: Yats, and (by now) some of the more recent foreign ministerial appointees.

2) The oligarchs
They are doing the best they can to grab as much as possible in confusion (theft being much easier during a riot than during calm) and shuffle their gains to London or Austria as fast as possible, so that they can bail to foreign lands.
This gives you a view of their homeland and foreign holdings

Quote:
At the same time, the apartment of Alexander Avakov, as the journalists of "Observer" found out, is a two level penthouse. In his penthouse there are 5 bedrooms, a living room, an office, dressing room and a kitchen-dining room. Ceiling height: 3.3 m. Panoramic windows overlook the city center. On the second floor of the apartment there are two attic spaces. The apartment comes with two parking spaces underground. Right under the Avakov's porch there is a fitness center with a swimming pool and a spa. In addition, the complex has dry cleaning, a Japanese garden with a fountain and a children's playground.

Quote:
Just in two weeks the rel estate agents found a suitable apartment in Belgravia (Westminster, South-West of Buckingham Palace), one of the most fashionable areas of London. Only for 5 657 000 euros a nice three-story house on Burton-Muse street was found - with four bedrooms, a fireplace and a private garden. Which is really inexpensive by the standards of Belgravia, where it's hard to find even the average prices (not to mention economy class).

http://flb.ru/info/59142.html

3) Nazis
The first crop of Nazis, members of Svoboda and Pravy (Right) Sector, appointed to government as their reward for bringing down Yanukovich:

Oleh Tyahnybok, Svoboda (Nazi) leader, was a year ago a top official of the Ukrainian Parliament

Ihor Tenyukh – interim defense minister and a member of Svoboda’s political council.

Andriy Parubiy – National Security Council chief, co-founded Svoboda back when it was the “Social National” (ahem!) party.

Dmytro Yarosh – Right Sector, deputy head of the National Security Council, i.e. the police.

Oleh Makhnitsky – Svoboda member of parliament, is prosecutor-general.

Oleksandr Sych – Svoboda parliamentarian and the party’s chief ideologist, is deputy prime minister for economic affairs.

Serhiy Kvit – a leading member of Svoboda, is to head up the Education Ministry.

Andriy Moknyk – the new Minister of Ecology, has been Svoboda’s envoy to other European

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2015 7:40 AM (P)

No comments?

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 22, 2015 9:22 AM (P)

Nope! No comments! But yanno, the article is so very interesting, I'll make a thread for it.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, March 26, 2015 5:58 AM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Nope! No comments! But yanno, the article is so very interesting, I'll make a thread for it.

Where is the thread? Or is this yet another Siggy-fact, meaning falsehood?

SIGNYM

Thursday, March 26, 2015 8:45 AM (P)

Right here

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=59606

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

KPO

Sunday, March 29, 2015 8:24 AM (P)

I predict Signy and kiki will not like the conclusions of the official MH17 report when it comes out.

It's not personal. It's just war.

1KIKI

Sunday, March 29, 2015 9:02 AM (P)

How do you think you know what I 'like'?

My objection to your and "G"'s notions is that they weren't backed up by facts. When the facts come out, I will like that.

SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

THGRRI

Sunday, March 29, 2015 9:17 AM (P)

Yeah them damn oligarchs, I say them all, and lets start with this guy.

Galley slave" Putin savors yachts, planes, palaces, critics say

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-russia-putin-perks-idUSBR
E87R0D220120828

KPO

Sunday, March 29, 2015 6:14 PM (P)

dbl

KPO

Sunday, March 29, 2015 6:21 PM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
How do you think you know what I 'like'?

My objection to your and "G"'s notions is that they weren't backed up by facts. When the facts come out, I will like that.

What you like = the Kremlin/RT narrative.

What you consider to be a 'fact' = anything that fits with this narrative.

It's not personal. It's just war.

1KIKI

Sunday, March 29, 2015 10:33 PM (P)

What I like is pointing out that there are different narratives than the one you like. Also, out of 22 pages of posts I only posted two articles - the facts of both of which I verified - from my email that ultimately came from RT. Remember? I don't - in fact - 'constantly' post from RT as you claim. I think you have a serious reality problem. Your biases lead you to think things that aren't true. In this case that I'm an RT droid.

SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

SIGNYM

Sunday, March 29, 2015 10:39 PM (P)

KPO = putting words in your mouth (again)?

That's a typical tool of authoritarians.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

1KIKI

Sunday, March 29, 2015 10:57 PM (P)

He's also a proven liar.

kiki - Among other hilarities, KPO also believes Iraq manufactured and possessed WMDs. You're not dealing with a rational, evidence-based mind.
signy - Wow, I thought KPO was only twisted about Russia!
kiki - Ask him yourself. I'm sure he'll be happy to tell you.
So, what about those Iraqi WMD, KPO???
krappy - Kiki is unhinged.
kiki -No, I'm not unhinged, it's just that he's a liar.

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58499&p=7

KPO

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 1:30 PM

I never said anything about importing them - no, it manufactured them and hid the evidence. However, now that you mention it, I did also hear a theory that Saddam DID import WMD - secretly from the USA back in the 80s; and then when the US captured them in 2003 they covered it up. Personally I don't know if it's true or not, but I'm guessing you can't disprove it...

SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

KPO

Sunday, March 29, 2015 11:04 PM (P)

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO = putting words in your mouth (again)?

That's a typical tool of authoritarians.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

I wasn't putting words in her mouth, I was describing her bias, and her level of intellectual honesty.

Putting words in someone's mouth is this:

Quote:
Also, out of 22 pages of posts I only posted two articles - the facts of both of which I verified - from my email that ultimately came from RT. Remember? I don't - in fact - 'constantly' post from RT as you claim.

Care to give my true, unedited quote kiki?

It's not personal. It's just war.

KPO

Sunday, March 29, 2015 11:08 PM (P)

Quote:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
He's also a proven liar.

kiki - Among other hilarities, KPO also believes Iraq manufactured and possessed WMDs. You're not dealing with a rational, evidence-based mind.
signy - Wow, I thought KPO was only twisted about Russia!
kiki - Ask him yourself. I'm sure he'll be happy to tell you.
So, what about those Iraqi WMD, KPO???
krappy - Kiki is unhinged.
kiki -No, I'm not unhinged, it's just that he's a liar.

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58499&p=7

KPO

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 1:30 PM

I never said anything about importing them - no, it manufactured them and hid the evidence. However, now that you mention it, I did also hear a theory that Saddam DID import WMD - secretly from the USA back in the 80s; and then when the US captured them in 2003 they covered it up. Personally I don't know if it's true or not, but I'm guessing you can't disprove it...

Lol, this again.

This bit cracks me up:

kiki - "No, I'm not unhinged"

It's not personal. It's just war.

1KIKI

Sunday, March 29, 2015 11:13 PM (P)

So, you don't deny that you lie.

SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

THGRRI

Monday, March 30, 2015 12:18 AM (P)

"There are at the present time two great nations in the world, which started from different points, but seem to tend towards the same end. I allude to the Russians and the Americans....The American struggles against the obstacles that nature opposes to him; the adversaries of the Russian are men. The former combats the wilderness and savage life; the latter, civilization with all its arms. The conquests of the American are therefore gained by the plowshare; those of the Russian by the sword. The Anglo-American relies upon personal interest to accomplish his ends and gives free scope to the unguided strength and common sense of the people; the Russian centers all the authority of society in a single arm. The principal instrument of the former is freedom; of the latter, servitude. Their starting point is different and their courses are not the same; yet each of them seems marked out by the will of heaven to sway the destinies of half the globe.”

Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, 1835

"Russia lacks nearly all the usual prerequisites for a successful transition to democracy. In its long history there is no experience of democracy, nor cultivation of civil society, to draw on. Two centuries of the Mongol yoke were followed by 500 years of the most oppressive autocratic rule in Europe, followed by 75 years of Soviet totalitarianism: the most innovative and deep-rooted system of authoritarian rule the world had ever seen."

Peter Rutland
Government Department
Wesleyan University
Middletown CT 06457

Of course now we have china but that does not change Tocqueville's or Rutland's point. In Russia you serve the master. Funny how neither Sig, or 1kiki wish to live there, but are willing to argue to the point of lying through their teeth to defend it.

1KIKI

Monday, March 30, 2015 1:02 AM (P)

bored now

SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

KPO

Tuesday, June 9, 2015 5:34 AM (P)

Signy: "First of all, it appears that the IMF intends to continue to waterboard Greece pretty much the same way it intends to waterboard Ukraine. I just read the provisions that the IMF have placed on a loan to Ukraine; basically the IMF expects the government to impoverish its people and sell off its assets to international bidders, pretty much the same way that the IMF is controlling Greece. But unlike Ukraine, Greece has been offered a home with the BRICS bank, so even if a Grexit occurs, it will be very very painful but probably not fatal."

Signy: I believe there will be a Graccident, a messy default. The Germans seem to be hanging tough. They can't possibly give in to Syriza because it would encourage Podemos (Spain) and the Five Star Movement (Italy) to bargain for better terms as well. So the Germans have an interest in a VERY messy default, and by stretching out the process until well in the summer, Greece will still be in the throes of a crisis (and a good example to all leftists) by the time elections roll around in October.

For the record I wouldn't rule out a messy Greek default myself, but for different reasons, e.g. Greece's crazy, far-left populist government.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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