REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Is Bush neuro-impaired?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Wednesday, December 15, 2004 16:09
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 5707
PAGE 2 of 2

Monday, October 25, 2004 1:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I skimmed the report. A large majority of Bush supporters think that Duelfer found WMD. A large majority of Bush suporters is unaware that most of the people in the world oppose US action in Iraq. A large majority of Bush suporters believe Bush supports the Kyoto Protocol and the World Criminal Court. In other words, a large majority of Bush suporters are totally clueless about the realities surrounding them

Frightening, isn't it???

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, October 25, 2004 1:05 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Shhh... I ALMOST hear the sound of Geezer's neurons working!

The "program" smuggling charge is- like everything else in this article- unsupported. A "program" is the a combination of components, know-how, and intention. (means, motive, opportunity).

Since UNMOVIC had control of all those components while they were in Iraq, Saddam didn't "have" WMD, he couldn't' make WMD, and he didn't have a "program" to make WMD because his conventional and dual-use items were tagged and monitored. Saddam's WMD threat to the US was zilch. Zero. Nada.

HOWEVER, once those items move out of UNMOVIC control, they might be used to activate a program elsewhere. That occurred before, during AND AFTER the US invasion, including during times when Saddam was in prison. The articles make it sound like Saddam is orchestrating a massive WMD transfer to Syria, when that is very far from the truth.

And please don't hide behind others' opinions when they're really yours.



Fine. So if the article was "far from the truth" why did Rue cite it in support of her position that it's all Bush's fault? Is she really a closet Bushie trying to slip one in on us, or did she just not read it completely before she cited it? I suspect the latter. I just wanted her to check it out and see if she really wanted to include it as a reference. I even put the little winky guy on there (the universal symbol of "not being serious").

What concerns me even more than politics right now is that fact that so many people can't take a F'ing joke. If you look back on the history of presidential elections, most every GD one has been "the end of the world as we know it" if the other side wins. The latest Smithsonian has an interesting article about the 1800 race between Jefferson and Burr. Both sides swore that if the other side won, the US was over. Didn't turn out that way. A Bush, or Kerry, victory in November(or December, or whenever the lawyers get through with it) will change a few things for a short period of time, but the nation will continue to muddle through. Things will slowly, with fits and starts, continue to get better. The religious right will get so extreme that they'll marginalize themselves. Business will get so egregiously stupid that the government will be forced to crack down on them (The evil IRS is already bopping companies for phony losses, and it'll only get worse). Utopia will never get here, but it'll get better. My boss is a black woman, her boss is a white man, his boss is a way-out-of-the-closet lesbian. Could that have happened fifty years ago? Thirty? Sorry, but I've seen enough positive change in my 55+ years that I can't be all doom-and-gloom. I think that it's the great mass of people, the ones you like to look down on as foolish and uneducated, who will, at their own pace, slowly but surely, move us towards the place you'd like to be. I don't think that you can rush it too much. It moves slowly, glacially, but is as irresistable as a glacier. I have no faith in god, but I believe this.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, October 25, 2004 2:26 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Yeah, Al Frankin , 'scientific poll', right. Dollars to donuts it was just some ridiculous, lame and unfunny comedy bit that Al tried to pull over on his unsuspecting few listeners. ( I've heard the show, don't lecture me about his nonsense )

What is ridiculous is that the information IS out there. It's not like the U.N. was bored and had nothing what so ever to do, and just decided on a whim to impose sanctions on Iraq for no gorram reason what so ever, for 12 YEARS, and repeatedly sent Inspectors in there...." just because" .

The denial of the Left on this is much like I've noticed w/ those who deny the Holocaust, or try to promote 'Creation Science' as a real scientific alternative to Evolution. Never mind the mountains of evidence, they continue to believe what they want to believe. Only in THIS case, we're not dealing w/ interpreting fossils from 100 - 200 million yrs ago, no. What we're dealing with HERE is the most recent history, as recent as 10, 5, 2, heck... as recent as TODAY.

Once folks begin place politics ahead of reason, to sqwabble over the most basic and undeniable facts, the whole point of discussion breaks down.

I know of what I speak. I've held a fossilized tooth of a T.Rex in my hand,and then had to sit through some whacko Creationist tell me that it was nothing but a 'dog bone' or better yet, a funny shaped rock. The come up with all manner of excuses, what ever it takes for them to keep from admitting that, yes....it is what it appears to be. And that singular truth, that over powering bit of reality to them is just too much for them to handle.

Oh well.

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, October 25, 2004 2:28 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Yeah, Al Frankin , 'scientific poll', right. Dollars to donuts it was just some ridiculous, lame and unfunny comedy bit that Al tried to pull over on his unsuspecting few listeners. ( I've heard the show, don't lecture me about his nonsense )

What is ridiculous is that the information IS out there. It's not like the U.N. was bored and had nothing what so ever to do, and just decided on a whim to impose sanctions on Iraq for no gorram reason what so ever, for 12 YEARS, and repeatedly sent Inspectors in there...." just because" .

The denial of the Left on this is much like I've noticed w/ those who deny the Holocaust, or try to promote 'Creation Science' as a real scientific alternative to Evolution. Never mind the mountains of evidence, they continue to believe what they want to believe. Only in THIS case, we're not dealing w/ interpreting fossils from 100 - 200 million yrs ago, no. What we're dealing with HERE is the most recent history, as recent as 10, 5, 2, heck... as recent as TODAY.

Once folks begin place politics ahead of reason, to sqwabble over the most basic and undeniable facts, the whole point of discussion breaks down.

I know of what I speak. I've held a fossilized tooth of a T.Rex in my hand,and then had to sit through some whacko Creationist tell me that it was nothing but a 'dog bone' or better yet, a funny shaped rock. The come up with all manner of excuses, what ever it takes for them to keep from admitting that, yes....it is what it appears to be. And that singular truth, that over powering bit of reality to them is just too much for them to handle.

Oh well.

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, October 25, 2004 4:38 PM

NEUTRINOLAD


Quote:

What I 'make' of that is perhaps a thinly veiled slap at Bush...


Oh, well, huh.
That's what I get for making an open-ended comment.

Sorry for being off topic. Please go back to citing your favorite wacky news sources

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, October 25, 2004 5:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Auraptor- Well, at least we agree on evolution!

When you cite "mountains of evidence" please be more specific what the evidence points to.

DID Saddam have WMD? Of course he did. We sent him a lot of the material to make them!

Did he use them? OF COURSE he did. We even covered up for him!

Was he a nasty guy? Sure thing! I could tell you a couple of stories that sound like something even old Joe Stalin wouldn't have thought of... terrifying, horrific, evil ways to get a stranglehold on an entire nation.

Did he want WMD? Yeah, most likely. Although "intent" is a little hard to judge.

Did he weasel out of "proving" that he had no WMD? Well, he tried, although UNMOVIC had it pretty well figured out anyway. Did he try to evade US sanctions? Of course!

But did he HAVE WMD or an active program to produce them?? NO, HE DID NOT. You can point to "mountains" of evidence but NONE of it points to Saddam "having" WMD.

And that WAS the whole point of the invasion, was it not? That Saddam warranted a "pre-emptive invasion" because he represented an "imminent" threat.


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, October 26, 2004 8:34 AM

GHOULMAN


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/columns/040618.shtml?ID=13323

UN Confirms: WMDs Smuggled Out of Iraq
--------------------------------------------
© June 18, 2004, Rod D. Martin




This is a while ago. Why would this information be relevant now that the facts have been proven?

Quote:

Late last week, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC)


Why should anyone take this UNMOVIC seriously?

And, gotta say, it's HI-larious you anti-UN guys pull this out as a defence to the WMD+Saddam arguement. An arguement that is already won.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, October 26, 2004 9:01 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

But did he HAVE WMD or an active program to produce them?? NO, HE DID NOT. You can point to "mountains" of evidence but NONE of it points to Saddam "having" WMD.


How do you go from admitting that Saddam had, used and WISHED to use WMD, but because he sucrried them out of Iraq on the eve of being invaded, he was 'safe'. I'll grant you that he might not HAVE them 'now', but the point was that we KNEW he had them, we knew some of what he had, and when we asked him to show proof of their destruction or of their existance and to hand what he DID have over to the U.N., Saddam balked. We dared him, double dared him..hell, we triple dog dared him to come clean, and he STILL didn't!

Sorry, but in my book , that's GAME OVER.

In evolution, you're either the bug or the windshield. Be the windshield.

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, October 26, 2004 9:06 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by Ghoulman:
Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/columns/040618.shtml?ID=13323

UN Confirms: WMDs Smuggled Out of Iraq
--------------------------------------------
© June 18, 2004, Rod D. Martin




This is a while ago. Why would this information be relevant now that the facts have been proven?

Quote:

Late last week, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC)



Why should anyone take this UNMOVIC seriously?

And, gotta say, it's HI-larious you anti-UN guys pull this out as a defence to the WMD+Saddam arguement. An arguement that is already won.



Actually, it was Rue who originally used this as a cite. I was just wondering why, and then SignyM went off on me.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, October 26, 2004 9:28 AM

GHOULMAN


^^^ That's funny, his post is this one (I snipped off the end) ...

Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
Well, AURaptor, as usual, you only got part of the story. What I like when people provide links is matching up what they said was in the link with what was really there.
So, a google search on: "demetrius perricos" un "security council" provided me with many, many news items. (Edited to add: Demetrius Perricos took over from Hans Blix.)
The first listing, oddly enough, addressed the second issue you failed to respond to at all, the issue of whether or not force was necessary, since UN inspectors were in Iraq verifying compliance.
http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/UN%20Security%20Council%20Re
solution%201441

It gives a good timeline of the events leading to the atack on Iraq. In part it says that because France had already stated they would veto ANY resolution which authorized immediate advance to war absent a second resolution, the US had to pull their request for an authorization. Instead, the US did this: SNIP!!!



Not this...

Quote:

Quote:


Quote: ALLEGEDLY posted by rue:
So, a google search on: "demetrius perricos" un "security council" provided me with many, many news items...
http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/columns/040618.shtml?ID=13323


Originally posted by Geezer:
Rue, you might want to remove the Vanguard link from your list of cites, since it disagrees with just about everything you said. Or were you just checking to see if we're still awake?


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, October 26, 2004 11:52 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

and when we asked him to show proof of their destruction or of their existance and to hand what he DID have over to the U.N., Saddam balked


He didn't "scurry" them out of Iraq. What we didn't bomb during Gulf War I (suspected WMD sites were generally targeted first) or destroy afterwards at various munitions sites (most notably at Khamisiya, but elsewhere as well) SADDAM HIMSELF DESTROYED. This is what UNMOVIC was about to validate (due to problems outlined below, this was a difficult task) and what Duelfer basically confirmed. It IS a little hard to turn over what you don't have!

Unfortunately, neither we nor Saddam inventoried stockpiles ahead of destruction so it was impossible to do more than estimate what happened to them. In addition, although Saddam destroyed his stockpiles and revealed most dual-use components (there were a few vials of cultures here and there, some biological - not nuclear- centrifuges, some PCs) he put on a big show of being cagey about it.

BTW, I have made this point b4 about WMD program components but I will try to be extremely specific about it - many "dual use" components are so common to normal industrial, scientific and infrastructural activities that it is almost impossible to ferret out each an every item. In our analytical lab, we have HUNDREDS of items that would be tagged as "dual use" items. And I hate to tell you how many items are missing according to our yearly iventory, especially items over 15 years old that are shuffled around, scavenged for parts, formally "surplused" and removed from inventory one year only to reappear on inventory due to some stupid computer glitch.

Same thing with paperwork. On occasion we have to dig up some 15-year-old file for Public Information Request or to resolve some legal issue, and although we try very diligently to retrieve all the info, quite frankly we probably only find 90-95% of it! That's why I don't gasp in horror about a few things here or there, or even about Bush's "missing" service records. I know only too well how that goes!!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, October 27, 2004 1:57 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


A lot has happened since I last visited this fine site.

Where to begin ...

It's so nice to be misquoted. Bush does that all the time to phony an argument. Taking lessons from your master, Geezer?

I could go around and around with all sorts of quotes, examples, links, and reason, but you know Geezer, that doesn't fly anywhere with you. So I'll just ask you straight out - are you stupid or dishonest?

Did you not go to ANY OTHER LINK I posted ?? Do you not see the value of looking to MANY sources, sieving out the points of concurrence and leaving the chaff behind? Did you not read my summary where I SAID - upfront, that I took the best supported information and left out the 'stuff'?

In general I work from original documents. I presume you know enough about the media to be skeptical of the news yourself. The AP wire said that AP had obtained the text of the report, but didn't post a link. So we, you and I, are stuck with parsimonious quotes squeezed onto the news, and reams of paraphrases, spin, editorializing, speculation and all sorts of 'stuff' that doesn't have anything to do with reality. Like a newspaper analyst for the CIA, one has to read A LOT to find the news. There were two links just dripping with 'stuff'. The Vanguard was one of them. I'm surprised you're not harping about the other one as well.



NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, October 27, 2004 3:33 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
So I'll just ask you straight out - are you stupid or dishonest?




hehehe I think your my kind of stupid...
not like the other kind.



" Don't Blame Me I Voted For Kudos "

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, October 27, 2004 4:22 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Quote:

In a report which might alternately be termed “stunning” or “terrifying”, United Nations weapons inspectors
Who called the report 'stunning' or 'terrifying'? The proximity to the UN's name might lead people to think, falsely, that the UN made this characterization. In fact it was the author of the article.
Quote:

confirmed last week not merely that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction,
No other news mentioned WMD
Quote:

but that he smuggled them out of his country, before, during and after the war.
a conclusion contradicted by a direct quote which said they could neither trace many items to Iraq (except for the ones with the tags, of course) and that they also didn't know when they were moved.
Quote:

Late last week, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) briefed the Security Council on Saddam's lightning-fast dismantling of missile and WMD sites before and during the war.
A lie contradicted by direct quotes.
Quote:

UNMOVIC executive chairman Demetrius Perricos detailed not only the export of thousands of tons of missile components, nuclear reactor vessels and fermenters for chemical and biological warheads, but also the discovery of many (but not most) of these items - with UN inspection tags still on them -- as far afield as Jordan, Turkey and even Holland.
This is one part of the story which is somewhat supported by other news items. Of course it fails to include the fact that, except for the missile engines, these items were common industrial equipment, a fact given major coverage by other news sources.
Quote:

Notably absent from that list is Iraq's western neighbor Syria, ruled by its own Baath Party just like Saddam's and closed to even the thought of an UNMOVIC inspection. Israeli intelligence has been reporting the large-scale smuggling of Saddam's WMD program across the Syrian border since at least two months before the war. Syria has long been the world's foremost state-sponsor of terrorism.
And this is YOUR quote about WMD. You deliberately confounded it with UN information, though it is NOT from the UN report, but from reports of Israeli reports ....
Quote:

Perricos highlighted the proliferation danger to the Security Council, as well he should: UNMOVIC has no idea where most of the WMD material is today, just that it exists and it's gone; and anything in Syria is likely to be in Jerusalem or New York tomorrow.
And that's another part that is supported by other news items. It fails to mention that UN inspectors have been TRYING to keep tabs on this stuff, have been saying that the lack of security is a problem, but have not been allowed into Iraq.
Quote:

This is the biggest news story of 2004 so far. Yet you haven't heard about it, have you? You probably haven't heard about Canada's Prime Minister Paul Martin either -- a socialist and no friend of America. Addressing a group of 700 university researchers and business leaders in Montreal last month, Martin stated bluntly that terrorists have acquired WMDs from Saddam. “The fact is that there is now, we know well, a proliferation of nuclear weapons, and that many weapons that Saddam Hussein had, we don't know where they are…. [T]errorists have access to all of them,” the Canadian premier warned.
But as everyone in touch with reality knows, Hussein had no nuclear weapons, programs, or even rudimentary facilities.
Quote:

The tip of this terrorist sword was scarcely deflected on April 26th, when Jordanian intelligence broke up an al Qaeda conspiracy to detonate a large chemical device in the capital city of Amman. Directed by al Qaeda terrorist leader Abu al-Zarqawi -- the same man who personally beheaded American Nicholas Berg in Iraq last month -- the plotters sought to use a massive explosion to spread a “toxic cloud”, meant to wipe out the U.S. embassy, the Jordanian prime minister's office, the Jordanian intelligence headquarters, and at least 20,000 civilians (by contrast, only 3,000 died on 9/11).
I have to admit to professional curiosity about the details. But from non-professional sources, look at it this way. How much did it take to wipe out Halabja? Could a central explosive device and one source in open air do the same kind of damage?
Quote:

Over twenty tons of chemical weapons were seized from the conspirators, who were just days away from carrying out their plot.
Three cars with explosives and one also carrying a chemical agent.
Quote:

One wonders where CNN and USA Today think twenty tons of nerve gas and sarin came from: Chemical Weapons-Mart? Yet their coverage, like most major media outlets, mentioned not a word about Saddam's smuggled WMDs, which -- according to liberal dogma -- “don't exist.”
I'm not going to get into what it might take to make CW.
Quote:

Even though the UN says they do exist,
Tripe
Quote:

now spread around the world.
It's not just the UN. Bill Clinton says they exist

you have to read what he actually said to realize this isn't true
Quote:

even after the war: in a July 2003 interview with Larry King, the ex-president uncharacteristically defended George Bush, saying “it is incontestable that on the day I left office, there (was)…a substantial amount of biological and chemical material unaccounted for” in Iraq.
Clinton didn't say they had them, just that there wasn't an accounting. Even the UN said what they needed was an ACCOUNTING.
Quote:

Every intelligence agency in the world -- French, British, German, Russian, Czech, you name it -- agreed before the war; Jordanian intelligence can certainly confirm their opinion today.
So what's the deal? Why the relentless pretence that “Bush lied”

He did.
Quote:

when even the UN and Bill Clinton say he didn't?
Now THAT'S a lie.
Quote:

Why the absolute silence about “inconvenient” parts of various UN reports, such as the discovery of chemical and biological weapons plans
Hey if this is the real story, blow it wide open. Help yourself, man. Shout these reports from the rooftops. But all I hear on these reports is ... silence....
Quote:

, recipes and equipment; of bio-weapons agents in an Iraqi scientist's house;
What a crock. One 10 year old vial of a non-toxic laboratory reference strain of botulism.
Quote:

of a prison lab for testing bio weapons on humans;
the UN discredits this story
Quote:

of complexes for manufacturing fuel for prohibited long-range missiles; of artillery rounds containing enough sarin to kill thousands of people,
When? Where? I bet David Kay is sorry to have missed them.
Quote:

of similar shells containing mustard gas, two (but far from the only) of which were used in a terrorist attack against U.S. forces just weeks ago?
Really, really old shells, so deteriorated they were harmless.
Quote:


America cannot afford the answer to this “why”: that many on the left consider George W. Bush's defeat more urgent than al Qaeda's, his political death more essential than the possible physical death of millions of Americans.

This is quite simply a fabrication of the worst kind.
Quote:

The character of our foreign enemies has never been in doubt. The character of the enemy within -- from Dan Rather to Michael Moore
or I take it, anyone who disagrees with Our Beloved Leader
Quote:

-- has never been clearer. And the stakes are the highest they've ever been.
As is the BS.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 2:53 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
A lot has happened since I last visited this fine site.

Where to begin ...

It's so nice to be misquoted. Bush does that all the time to phony an argument. Taking lessons from your master, Geezer?



Didn't realize I'd misquoted you. Where was that? Did you not find the four articles about WMD while googling for "demetrius perricos" un "security council" as I assumed? That's the only quote I could find.

Quote:

I could go around and around with all sorts of quotes, examples, links, and reason, but you know Geezer, that doesn't fly anywhere with you. So I'll just ask you straight out - are you stupid or dishonest?


Are those the only choices allowed for people who don't agree with you 100%? Guess I should be grateful for any choice at all.

Quote:

Did you not go to ANY OTHER LINK I posted ?? Do you not see the value of looking to MANY sources, sieving out the points of concurrence and leaving the chaff behind? Did you not read my summary where I SAID - upfront, that I took the best supported information and left out the 'stuff'?

In general I work from original documents. I presume you know enough about the media to be skeptical of the news yourself. The AP wire said that AP had obtained the text of the report, but didn't post a link. So we, you and I, are stuck with parsimonious quotes squeezed onto the news, and reams of paraphrases, spin, editorializing, speculation and all sorts of 'stuff' that doesn't have anything to do with reality. Like a newspaper analyst for the CIA, one has to read A LOT to find the news. There were two links just dripping with 'stuff'. The Vanguard was one of them. I'm surprised you're not harping about the other one as well.



Okay. One more time. This all started way above in your post of Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 14:42
when you stated:

Quote:

To go on to the claim of WMD that you (Auraptor)made:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,122311,00.html
http://www.novogate.com/exco/thread.php?forumid=2302&threadid=60906
http://www.fbbn.com/cgi-bin/viewnews.cgi?category=17&id=1072101891
http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/columns/040618.shtml?ID=13323
Even the most right-wing of these, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo, repeat the same facts (speculation and innuendo stripped):



You then listed some facts, including:

Quote:

. As the quote below reveals, your assertion that 'WMDs were shipped out of Iraq' before, during and after the invasion are not supported by the UN report.


And then a quote from Fox. But the Vanguard article states:

Quote:

: “In a report which might alternately be termed “stunning” or “terrifying”, United Nations weapons inspectors confirmed last week not merely that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, but that he smuggled them out of his country, before, during and after the war.

Late last week, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) briefed the Security Council on Saddam's lightning-fast dismantling of missile and WMD sites before and during the war.”



This didn't seem to me to be "repeating the same facts". It appears to be in direct contradiction to what you said. The only facts it does agree with you on are not bones of contention, such as the presence of UN tags on some equipment. Taking the Vanguard article as a whole, it posits that WMD and WMD development materials were smuggled out of Iraq by previous regime forces, possibly to Syria. This didn't seem to be supporting the point you were trying to make, and I wondered why you chose it as a cite for your position.

Unfortunately, I had forgotten that anything less than total agreement with the party line is a crime, and the Gang of Four (that would be SignyM, Ghoul, yourself and Gino) leapt to the attack, completely missing the point of my question.

Come on. Even someone as "stupid" as I can see that the Vanguard story is as biased as a Michael Moore documentory. The stuff about "One wonders where CNN and USA Today think twenty tons of nerve gas and sarin came from: Chemical Weapons-Mart?" is revealed as bogus from the original news reports about the Jordanian incident.

What's really funny in that in your Wednesday, October 27, 2004 - 21:22 post you completely refute the Vanguard article. And what's even funnier is that I agree with you about most of it. Which leaves us with the original question; why did you use it as cite to support your position in the first place? That's all I really wanted to know.






"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 3:29 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Thank you, Rue. I don't know where you get the patience!

The "case" against Saddam is based on paranoia. People like Auraptor will point to a complete void and say "The fact that nothing is there proves that Saddam hid it!" That type of logic killed a lot of "witches" a few hundred years ago!

For those who are still so afraid that Saddam had a robust WMD production program, and stockpiles of "tons" and "thousands of liters" of WMD-
Please, do yourselves a favor and RESEARCH everything you can. Go to original reports. Get some tapes by Scott Ritter, read Hans Blix's and David Kay's report, get some good scientific articles about WMD production- in other words, familiarize yourself with the facts and demystify the topic. Please don't use fourth-hand paranoid fantasy that has to distort every single point in order to make a case.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 3:35 AM

CAPNRAHN


One quick question to anyone {either side} who deigns to answer. And yes, it could be considered germaine to the thread. If spun correctly!

Which phrase do you REALLY believe MOST in:

"Might Makes Right"
OR
"With Great Power come Great Responsibility"

Just curious ... and thanks for your input!

"Remember, there is only ONE absolute - There ARE NO absolutes!!!"

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 3:37 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Geezer- I can't speak for Rue, but I think she (?) already answered that question with the part of her post that said- Have you never looked at multiple articles to find the parts that were consistent?

Having become familiar with Rue's style of posting, I think the point was to link to ALL sources of information so that people with opposing viewpoints couldn't claim that she missed or censored dissenting views.

I really don't understand why you're making such a big deal about this, it seems very obvious to me.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 4:30 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Geezer- I can't speak for Rue, but I think she (?) already answered that question with the part of her post that said- Have you never looked at multiple articles to find the parts that were consistent?

Having become familiar with Rue's style of posting, I think the point was to link to ALL sources of information so that people with opposing viewpoints couldn't claim that she missed or censored dissenting views.

I really don't understand why you're making such a big deal about this, it seems very obvious to me.



Me making a big deal?

I just asked:

"Rue, you might want to remove the Vanguard link from your list of cites, since it disagrees with just about everything you said. Or were you just checking to see if we're still awake? "

...and got this back from you.

Quote:

Geezer- are YOU awake?? Grab some coffee, bring your normal skepticism to the table, and read this CAREFULLY:


Quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Late last week, the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) briefed the Security Council on Saddam's lightning-fast dismantling of missile and WMD sites before and during the war. UNMOVIC executive chairman Demetrius Perricos detailed not only the export of thousands of tons of missile components, nuclear reactor vessels and fermenters for chemical and biological warheads, but also the discovery of many (but not most) of these items - with UN inspection tags still on them -- as far afield as Jordan, Turkey and even Holland.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Now, where did it say that WMD were removed? It said that "missile components", "nuclear reactor vessels" and "fermenters" "WITH UN INSPECTION TAGS STILL ON THEM" went missing.

Missiles, fermenters, and nuclear reactor vessels are NOT.. repeat NOT... WMD. Missiles are, well, missiles. Saddam was allowed missiles (Samoud or S2) for defensive purposes provided that they didn't exceed a certain range (I think it was 120 miles) and carried conventional warheads. Every nation in the world has missiles. You may at times see Saddam's missiles referred to as "ballistic" missiles, making them sound even scarier because we all think about "intercontinental ballistic missiles" or ICBMs, but "ballistic" simply means unguided: It get shot high up into the air and lands where the initial trajectory pointed it.

Nuclear reactor vessels are part of CIVILIAN nuclear power generation and medical research, and that is many, many many many steps removed from nuclear weapons. A number of universities in the USA have nuclear reactors to make isotopes and create gamma rays for medical purposes, for example.

Fermenters have a number of legitimate uses, including brewing beer and culturing mold-based antibiotics like penicillin. The part of the article that says: "fermenters for chemical and biological warheads" is a lie. The UN had already assessed that these items were NOT part of a WMD program.

It's just like the 380 tons of high explosives that disappreared from under USA noses. It COULD be used to detonate a nuclear device and will likely be portrayed as a "WMD" or "WMD component" in right-wing newspapers, but that was not what it was being used for in Iraq, and like the other missing items it had been tagged and was being monitored by the UN (intil the USA screwed them up).

BTW- our lab has already had to sign several export license agreements for "dual use" items like pressure sensors (it COULD be used in a nuclear reactor!) and chemical detectors (they COULD be used for making CWA!). My gosh- may as well tag our lab too!



...followed by...

Quote:

Regarding the foiled attack in Jordan:


Quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One wonders where CNN and USA Today think twenty tons of nerve gas and sarin came from
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



First of all, it wasn't 20 tons of "nerve gas and sarin". That was never in any news stories. The chemicals were stated as "a mixture of 71 different chemicals" including several tons of sulfuric acid, "nerve agents" and "blister agents". If the terrorists actually had their hands on sarin and nerve gas, they wouldn't NEED 20 tons. Several 55-gallon drums would be sufficient.

The chemicals were almost certainly industrial. To get a rough order of magnitude on industrial chemical injuries, the chemical disaster at Bhopal killed more than 10,000 people and injured 600,000 from a leak of 40 tons of methyl isocynate which is a "blistering agent" (causes blistering of the lungs, pulmonary edema and death due to drowning).

Now, I'm not going to provide a recipe for how to create a toxic cloud from basic industial chemicals, but since I am a chemist working on both a CWA anti-terrorism project AND industrial releases, some of the chemicals that could be used to create a toxic cloud of "blistering agents" and "nerve agents" are as close as your kitchen sink and garage. Sarin and mustard gas are not necessary, especially in "ton" quantities.



Could we be having a little "pot-calling-the-kettle-black" action going on here?





"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 5:01 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by CapnRahn:
One quick question to anyone {either side} who deigns to answer. And yes, it could be considered germaine to the thread. If spun correctly!

Which phrase do you REALLY believe MOST in:

"Might Makes Right"
OR
"With Great Power come Great Responsibility"

Just curious ... and thanks for your input!

"Remember, there is only ONE absolute - There ARE NO absolutes!!!"



I'll go ahead, just so folk can have the chance to insult me again.

Don't believe much in either one.

Might can make right, it can also make wrong, in some cases it can probably be neutral. Equating the ability to do something with ethical justification to do it is fallacious logic. Now if you defined "Might" as the resolve to do the right thing, it might apply, but I doubt it's ever used in that context.

"With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility" sounds more idealistic, but is just as slippery. It might work better as "With Great Power Should Come Great Responsibility". Of course we now have the problem of who the responsibility is to. The people who hold power? The people the power is used to benefit? The people the power is used against? All of the above? Each choice provides a different justification for a different application of power. So it depends on who's saying it. It's meaningless without a frame of reference.


I can imagine that a Hitler, for example, could use both to validate his rule.

"Might Makes Right" would fall right in with the Nazi concepts of Aryan superiority, and their supposed destiny to lead the inferior races.

"With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility" of course would mean that since he had the power, he had the responsibility to advance the progress of his people, at whatever cost to everyone else.

A Ghandi analogue, on the other hand, would probably disagree with "Might Makes Right", even suggesting that might generally makes wrong.

He might agree with the second quote, but only if the responsibility is to everyone, not just a particular group or class.

Give me some context for the quotes and maybe I can give an answer.



"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 5:34 AM

CAPNRAHN


LOL, you should know me better than that Geezer, I don't stoop to calling folks names or cast unfounded dispersions on their character.
{ I know ya dinna mean me, just had to poke the bear a mite)

Context, to have real meaning, has to come from individual perspective, rearing/training and other various cultural 'isms'.

Even folks in the same country, provence, city, town, social group and even family do not always share 'context'. Context can be as relative as perspective.

But you did make my point for me -- thanks Geezer!

"Remember, there is only ONE absolute - There ARE NO absolutes!!!"

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, October 28, 2004 3:30 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Geezer,

There were two extremely weak references, and I wonder why you are not carping about the other one as well.

So, here is the answer, again:

BACKGROUND
AS I EXPLAINED, I prefer to work from original documents. When they are not available, one must cast widely and then perform an analysis. MANY papers carried the AP wire story verbatim. Posting link after link to what is ultimately the same thing is not really useful, is it? To try to expand on the information available, I looked at additional articles.
I POSTED LINKS TO THE UNIQUE SOURCES that had information, not just the ones supportive of my point.
I did not post links to places I looked at if they did not contain information on the report. For example, I did not post a link to the UN website, because I couldn't locate the original report there. Not did I post links to the many publications I looked at that carried the AP wire story, since they didn't have the link to the text of the report I was seeking.

ANSWER
I posted those links because I looked at the contents and evaluated them, and to some extent they contributed to my conclusions. There were some that contributed mostly in the negative.
If it was a paper, I think this would be an example of avoiding plagiarism. As a scientist, my tenet is that one reports ALL data.

Got it now ? Or do I have to make this even simpler?

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 1:30 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
Geezer,

...Got it now ? Or do I have to make this even simpler?



No. I got it now.

1.You cite four references, including the Vanguard article, and state, "Even the most right-wing of these, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo, repeat the same facts."

2. I read the Vanguard article (which seemed the "most right-wing") and note that it doesn't "repeat the same facts." That it actually contradicts most of your points. I wonder about this and ask for clarification.

3. After a few skirmishes with SignyM, you return and, following the usual preliminary insults, proceed to deconstruct the Vanguard article, which you originally stated "repeat(ed) the same facts" and show how every sentence is either a lie, an opinion, or an incomplete description.

Obviously, my mistake was in thinking that your claim that the articles "repeat the same facts" meant that the articles repeated the same facts. Perfectly clear now.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 2:42 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 7:00 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

2. I read the Vanguard article (which seemed the "most right-wing") and note that it doesn't "repeat the same facts." That it actually contradicts most of your points. I wonder about this and ask for clarification.

3. After a few skirmishes with SignyM, you return and, following the usual preliminary insults, proceed to deconstruct the Vanguard article, which you originally stated "repeat(ed) the same facts" and show how every sentence is either a lie, an opinion, or an incomplete description.


Quote:

From what I recall of The Vanguard, they're about polar opposites from you and Rue on most stuff, and I reserve the same skeptcism for their positions that I do for yours.

I guess I expected more of you, oh vaunted skeptic. When you pointed to the Vanguard article I assumed that you would bring to it the same magnifying glass that you bring to more left-wing opinions, and realize that the article even contradicted ITSELF (referring to WMD in one para and WMD program components in another).

It gets annoying when someone exercises skepticism about some things but not others. You take a consistent point of view, but when your bias is pointed out you claim "Oh, it was just a joke:

Quote:

The psychologists then began the brainwashing procedure {on Ghoulman} and discovered...well...let’s just say you can’t wash what you can’t find.... Just kiddin', Ghoul.


or
Quote:

Is she really a closet Bushie trying to slip one in on us, or did she just not read it completely before she cited it? I suspect the latter. I just wanted her to check it out and see if she really wanted to include it as a reference. I even put the little winky guy on there (the universal symbol of "not being serious").

What concerns me even more than politics right now is that fact that so many people can't take a F'ing joke.



You NEVER make an anti-Bush joke, you ALWAYS deconstruct anti-Bush statements to the nth degree. You're not as unbiased as you claim, and it's hard to believe that someone as intelligent as you (you write nice poetry BTW) doesn't realize it. Is it reasonable to conclude that you're propagandizing on purpose?
Just a joke.


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 8:53 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
I guess I expected more of you, oh vaunted skeptic. When you pointed to the Vanguard article I assumed that you would bring to it the same magnifying glass that you bring to more left-wing opinions, and realize that the article even contradicted ITSELF (referring to WMD in one para and WMD program components in another).



I did.

Quote:

Come on. Even someone as "stupid" as I can see that the Vanguard story is as biased as a Michael Moore documentory. The stuff about "One wonders where CNN and USA Today think twenty tons of nerve gas and sarin came from: Chemical Weapons-Mart?" is revealed as bogus from the original news reports about the Jordanian incident.

What's really funny in that in your Wednesday, October 27, 2004 - 21:22 post you completely refute the Vanguard article. And what's even funnier is that I agree with you about most of it. Which leaves us with the original question; why did you use it as cite to support your position in the first place? That's all I really wanted to know.



I believe I also called it a "right-wing rant" at some point.

At no time in this thread have I even criticized the position Rue took in her original post that cited the Vanguard article, just what I considered an inappropriate cite for what I thought was supposed to be a persuasive argument.

I agree with her assessment that most of the Vanguard article is B.S.

I willingly agree that I am not grimly dead serious at all times. QED.

How many Republican voters does it take to change a light bulb? None. They prefer to stay in the dark.

George Bush walks into a bar with a ventriliquist dummy. "Hey!" The bartender says. "We don't serve no dummies in here". "That's okay". The dummy responds. "He doesn't drink".

How many SignyMs does it take to change a light bulb? Are you stupid or just blind? That lightbulb doesn't need changing. You don't understand anything about lightbulbs. I'm sick and tired of your anti-lightbulb propaganda. And besides, Bush lied about WMD.

Couldn't let Ghoul have all the attention



"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 9:46 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


"Even the most right-wing of these, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo, repeat the same facts."
AGAIN, it's so nice to be misquoted. What I ACTUALLY wrote was:
"Even the most right-wing of these, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo, repeat the same facts (speculation and innuendo stripped)"
I then go on to list the points of concurrence.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 10:54 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, I guess I can't say that you NEVER tell an anti-Bush joke! Hahahahaha!!!

OK, OK... Let's go have a beer or something!


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 1:04 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
"Even the most right-wing of these, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo, repeat the same facts."
AGAIN, it's so nice to be misquoted. What I ACTUALLY wrote was:
"Even the most right-wing of these, dripping with sarcasm and innuendo, repeat the same facts (speculation and innuendo stripped)"
I then go on to list the points of concurrence.



Right. I had forgotten that anything which does not agree with your views is speculation and innuendo.

Rue and Geezer walk into a bar. "What'll you have?" the barkeep asks.

"Scotch on the rocks" Rue replys.

"Scotch rocks" the bartender confirms.

"Don't mis-quote me!" Rue snarls. I said 'Scotch on the rocks'!"

"Yes, Ma'am! Scotch-on-the-rocks." The cringing publican answers. "And you, buddy?"

"Whatever she wants me to have." replys Geezer, eyeing Rue nerviously.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 1:06 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Well, I guess I can't say that you NEVER tell an anti-Bush joke! Hahahahaha!!!

OK, OK... Let's go have a beer or something!




I lift my freshly made Boston Sidecar in your general direction. Salute!

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 2:47 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, I'll be attending a single malt whiskey tasting soon. Anything you'd like me to try for you? A sea-wrack and peat, or a sherry-casked whiskey?





NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, October 29, 2004 2:48 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


SIGH.

First you accuse me of posting things that DON'T support my views, now you accuse me of only posting things that I agree with. Which is it?

And, for the record, what I did with my analysis was 1) pick out all the direct quotes as the most likely areas of truth, 2) delete items that were contradicted by those direct quotes 3) delete items identified by the individual news report as NOT from the UN report (from, for example Israeli intelligence) 4) delete items not directly related to the UN report (general editorializing about the state of Iraq, the UN, the world etc) and 5) delete items contradicted by the majority of the other unique news reports.

You should go thru this some day. You might learn something.

Out of curiosity, do you have any SUBSTANTIVE points to make?

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 6:32 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
SIGH.

First you accuse me of posting things that DON'T support my views, now you accuse me of only posting things that I agree with. Which is it?

And, for the record, what I did with my analysis was 1) pick out all the direct quotes as the most likely areas of truth, 2) delete items that were contradicted by those direct quotes 3) delete items identified by the individual news report as NOT from the UN report (from, for example Israeli intelligence) 4) delete items not directly related to the UN report (general editorializing about the state of Iraq, the UN, the world etc) and 5) delete items contradicted by the majority of the other unique news reports.

You should go thru this some day. You might learn something.

Out of curiosity, do you have any SUBSTANTIVE points to make?



Only that our brains apparently work too differently for us to comunicate. What I considered a request for clarification you obviously considered as an attack. This may be because my request was in a flip tone, or that you consider any question from me an argument. It may be something else. I don't know.


If you want to use the Vanguard article as a cite, go right ahead. It seemed peculiar to me, which is why I asked. If you've determined that it supports your point in some way not clear to me, that's fine. I'll continue to be puzzled, since I don't think that we'll ever agree on it.



"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 6:51 AM

BROWNSHIRTSROCK


Quote:

Originally posted by HKCavalier:
Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Quote:

Originally posted by NeutrinoLad:
I'm ok with wear and tear on a fella's body. FDR was not any less of a man for the loss of the use of his legs.
What I do not like is being lied to at every turn.
Make of that what you will.



What I 'make' of that is perhaps a thinly veiled slap at Bush ( since that's been parrotted so often ), yet never does anyone actually present a 'lie' from him. Go figure.

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "



I regret that I do not have the time right now to present the staggeringly long list (c'mon, AURaptor, what rock have you been hiding under?) but I have one that should be fresh in anyone's mind: in the last debate W shamelessly acted as if he had no recolection of his having deprioritized Osama B. on national television. But then, I feel that your statement that nobody presents any lies from W is absolutely just as disingenuous--or just plain ignorant.

HKCavalier

Hey, hey, hey, don't be mean. We don't have to be mean, because, remember, no matter where you go, there you are.





Hey, I think we all know that Bush and Kerry lie equally. As did all presidential candidates that came before them. I think there are two main reasons we notice it more now than we did before: 1) During the Clinton era we saw just how deeply an administrations lie can go. Perhaps no one had been caught so "red-handedly" before. 2) Honestly, the calibur of candidates seems to be less & less each cycle. I would imagine that by about the year 2032, our candidates will be monkeys.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 6:51 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Well, I'll be attending a single malt whiskey tasting soon. Anything you'd like me to try for you? A sea-wrack and peat, or a sherry-casked whiskey?




We've been liking the Glenmorangie Sherry Wood Finish as a staple here. Not so hot as some others. After years of procrasatination, I finally got a soda siphon, and now have Dewer's & soda a couple of evenings a week.

For sipping we sort of got away from single-malts and into brandies lately. I've taken to Asbach Uralt, a German brandy, and Madame has been sipping Laird's Old Apple Brandy, from the good old USA.

As for cocktails, we disagree on martinis, as Madame can't stand gin (Hendrick's for me) and I don't care much for vodka (Glacier or Level for her).

Most Friday nights we make up a thermos of something and a tray of finger food and chill with a movie or some music. Fogeydom personified.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 6:53 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by BrownShirtsRock:
I would imagine that by about the year 2032, our candidates will be monkeys.



This, Sir, is an insult to monkeys everywhere!

"Keep the Shiny side up"

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 7:00 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Maybe there is hope for those who feel neither Bush or Kerry should win the election:

http://techcentralstation.com/101404A.html

Tie Goes to the...

Interested in becoming president this year? If so, hope for an electoral college tie. With an unlikely, but plausible, perfect tie -- 269 electoral votes for both George W. Bush and John Kerry -- anyone meeting the Constitutional qualifications for president could end up president. Here's how.


Most people know the electoral college, and not popular vote, decides presidential elections. Many people also know that if no one gets a majority of electoral college votes the Constitution directs the House of Representatives to choose the President. This has happened twice (not counting 1876, a technically different situation) -- in the strange tie of 1800 and the 4-way election of 1824. The contemporary prospects for a House election are slim. Only an electoral tie -- or a third party winning electors -- could produce it. However, a tie is plausible this year: if all states vote the same as 2000 except New Hampshire and Nevada, the electoral vote would be 269 to 269.



An electoral college tie would produce overwhelming media attention on the possibility of "faithless electors", who disregard the vote return in his/her state and pick whichever candidate he/she wishes. In 2000, such a move by three electors would have produced a Gore victory. Earlier this month, a Republican elector, Richie Rob, made rumblings that he might not elect Bush if the President wins West Virginia.



A more intriguing, and potentially more consequential, possibility is an elector "shedding" a vote to a 3rd candidate. In an election thrown to the House, the 12th amendment specifies to choose from the top three electoral vote recipients. In a tie, only Bush and Kerry will have electoral votes, Unless some elector decides to shed his vote, making the outcome 269-268-1. Why would an elector do this?



It's simple. Shedding a vote would still send the election to the House. Currently, the Republicans would handily win a vote between Bush and Kerry. Democratic electors thus have an incentive to get a third candidate on the House ballot -- particularly a centrist who could draw moderate Republicans into a coalition with the House Democrats to defeat Bush. To succeed, it would have to be a prominent moderate Republican, and it would have to be someone willing to attempt a revolt in the Republican party. It would almost have to be John McCain.



While McCain might reject this and throw his support behind Bush, he might seize the opportunity, much like Aaron Burr did in 1800. It would be his chance to reshape the GOP. He has never personally liked Bush. And lest we forget, it could make him president. Certainly there are House GOP members who would prefer a moderate Republican to Bush.



Bush Republicans would obviously try to prevent such a revolt. However, few GOP defectors would be needed. The 12th amendment also specifies that the House vote is by state delegations, not simple majority. To win, you must get the vote of 26 state delegations. Along strict partisan lines, there are 30 GOP delegations, 16 Democratic delegations (including Vermont's independent but left leaning Bernie Sanders), and 4 deadlocked delegations.



Imagine a three-way House choice between Bush, Kerry, and McCain. McCain could prevent Bush from gaining the required 26 states by deadlocking 5 states. Assuming full Democratic support for McCain, defection of less than a dozen key GOP members could deny Bush victory. After a first ballot impasse, it's anybody's game, but McCain, as the moderate of the three, would be a favorite to win a politically brokered deal.



But Republicans might act even earlier. Think back to the original "shedding" of an elector to McCain. Although a tie vote would be known in early November, the electors do not meet until December, giving them time to consider their options. The obvious Republican counter-attack would be to encourage multiple Republican electors to shed votes. Multiple electors shed toward either a left-winger (say, Howard Dean) or a right-winger (say, Tom DeLay), could keep a moderate, agreeable third candidate such as McCain out of the contest, making the House vote between Bush, Kerry, and a radical. The House GOP would hold together, and Bush would win handily.



But why would the Democratic electors allow this? They could plan to shed more electors towards McCain. A race to the bottom could then ensue, such that any radical combination of electoral votes, even scenarios where Bush or Kerry get few or no votes, could occur. Depending on what degree electors are aware of the possibilities and to what degree they coordinate their actions, almost any three candidate could end up in the House.



While farfetched, the idea of the perfect electoral tie and electoral shedding opens the frightening possibility of an American election in true disarray -- one in which anyone, announced candidate or not, could end up President. Even you.



Matt Glassman is a graduate student in Political Science at Yale University. (He is not related to TCS Founder and Host James K. Glassman.)


" Don't Blame Me I Voted For Kudos "

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 7:01 AM

BROWNSHIRTSROCK


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:

Originally posted by BrownShirtsRock:
I would imagine that by about the year 2032, our candidates will be monkeys.



This, Sir, is an insult to monkeys everywhere!

"Keep the Shiny side up"




Indeed. But I hear there are some terrifying space monkeys that are really quite amiable as long as you don't try to pin them down on any real political issues.

"Honestly folks, I think my brain is broken." John Stewart

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Saturday, October 30, 2004 3:47 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Geezer,
Hunh. OK. I just thought you liked pissing matches, and were happy to continue as long as I was. I was actually going to mention that I would be happy to enter another one at some point. Game? Or not so much?

But speaking of pissing, though there are some tasty single malt scotches (an arena I'm still exploring), Laphroaig, which has been called a lovely Islay, tastes to me like male-cat piss smells. IMHO. Though if someone can point out its virtues, I'd be happy to give it another try, keeping the good accounting in mind.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, December 9, 2004 11:15 PM

FARSCAPEPKWARS


could be a medical condition ?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, December 12, 2004 1:23 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Yeah, two halves of the brain that don't communicate: Rove apparently doesn't talk with Cheney. :bigrin:


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, December 15, 2004 4:09 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Awh darn! I can't think of a clever reply.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
Where is the 25th ammendment when you need it?
Fri, November 22, 2024 00:07 - 1 posts
Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
Thu, November 21, 2024 23:55 - 7478 posts
Thread of Trump Appointments / Other Changes of Scenery...
Thu, November 21, 2024 22:03 - 40 posts
Elections; 2024
Thu, November 21, 2024 22:03 - 4787 posts
1000 Asylum-seekers grope, rape, and steal in Cologne, Germany
Thu, November 21, 2024 21:46 - 53 posts
Music II
Thu, November 21, 2024 21:43 - 117 posts
Lying Piece of Shit is going to start WWIII
Thu, November 21, 2024 20:56 - 17 posts
Are we in WWIII yet?
Thu, November 21, 2024 20:31 - 18 posts
More Cope: "Donald Trump Has Not Won a Majority of the Votes Cast for President"
Thu, November 21, 2024 19:40 - 7 posts
Biden admin quietly loosening immigration policies before Trump takes office — including letting migrants skip ICE check-ins in NYC
Thu, November 21, 2024 18:18 - 2 posts
All things Space
Thu, November 21, 2024 18:11 - 267 posts
In the garden, and RAIN!!! (2)
Thu, November 21, 2024 17:56 - 4749 posts

FFF.NET SOCIAL