And now for something important: the globe has an ~20% chance of hitting the global warming 1.5C target in the next 5 years by 1KIKI

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

And now for something important: the globe has an ~20% chance of hitting the global warming 1.5C target in the next 5 years

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Friday, August 20, 2021 08:04
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Thursday, August 12, 2021 5:40 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Climate change worsens extreme weather. A revolution in attribution science proved it.

From heat waves to deadly floods, scientists can now calculate how much humans have made disasters worse.

Scientists are not just confident that humans are warming the climate — that much is “unequivocal.” Now they’ve concluded it’s “an established fact” that signals of this warming shine bright in events like the severe heat and torrential rainfall that we’re seeing now, increasing their frequency, severity, or both. That’s why scientists only needed a few days to implicate climate change in recent Pacific Northwest heat waves, for example.

Computer models of the global climate system have been refined, and the computers themselves have gotten faster. “The level of simulation and analysis we can do has improved,” said Reed. “Related to that, we have, in some cases, 10 years more of observations, which means we can build better models.”

Extreme weather attribution could also play a role in lawsuits. “As confidence levels grow in the findings that scientists are making, it’s quite possible that it will have legal implications in the courtroom and elsewhere,” said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School. “That’s the sort of scientific conclusion that can have direct impacts on the outcome of litigation.”

There’s already a wave of climate change litigation in the US and in several other countries. Some cities have filed suit against oil companies for selling products that contribute to climate change while misleading the public about their harms. Several groups of youth activists are making the case that governments are not doing an adequate job of protecting against worsening climate change, thereby depriving them of a safe climate.

Will the improvements in extreme weather attribution help plaintiffs win these lawsuits? It’s not clear yet.

https://www.vox.com/22616968/ipcc-climate-change-report-attribution-ex
treme-weather-heat-fire

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Thursday, August 12, 2021 9:43 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Does this mean that you're going to slaughter all of your cows and get out of the Steak Business as a show of good faith then, Second.

It really annoys us that your fictional RL personality and its farting cows are responsible for all of the fires.
The biggest methane leakage is from natural gas production. As for enteric fermentation, if you eat less meat, you release less methane.

Methane and Nitrous Oxide are the next biggest problems after Carbon Dioxide.
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases#methane
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases#nitrous-oxi
de

6ix, I expect a Trump voter to be an ignoramus about climate change and you did as expected. Before embracing Covid-19 denial, there was climate denial. Many of the attitudes that have characterized their response to the coronavirus pandemic — refusal to acknowledge facts, accusations that scientists are part of a vast liberal conspiracy, refusal to address the crisis — were foreshadowed in the climate debate.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

I eat a lot of meat.

And no, I'm not going to wear an ass mask for your benefit.

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Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."

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Sunday, August 15, 2021 1:00 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Marcia Bjornerud is a geologist and the author of Timefulness: How Thinking Like a Geologist Can Help Save the World. The book is a deep time tour through our planet’s history. Along the way, Bjornerud shows that part of our inability to make sense of the current climate crisis has to do with our inability to let go of the idea of the planet as a fundamentally stable place.

We have been tricked into believing in Earth’s stability, in part because all of human civilization has taken place during the Holocene, an 11,700-year inter-glacial period in which Earth’s climate has been remarkably consistent and remarkably hospitable to life. Any geologist will tell you that, over the long arc of time, Earth has been the farthest thing from stable. It has undergone vast shifts, fluctuating from an icehouse to a hothouse and back again.

Humans haven’t been around for any of that. A relatively stable Earth is the only one we have ever known.

Every book written and read, every vegetable grown and eaten, has occurred during this short period. And on some level, Bjornerud says, it’s understandable that many of us have come to think of nature as the passive backdrop on which we live our lives. This misunderstanding is fundamentally about time: an inability to grasp the enormity of our planet’s biography. It’s hard to wrap our heads around the true age of Earth, the fact that 90 million years ago the sea level was 500 feet higher and there were rainforests in Antarctica.

Our time illiteracy extends in the other direction, too. Despite endless political rhetoric about protecting our grandchildren, our institutions appear almost incapable of long-term thinking. There are many reasons for this—the fossil fuel lobby, the election cycle, the nature of capitalism—but it also has to do with our perception of time.

The great irony of climate change is that, even though it is now occurring at an incomprehensibly rapid pace from a geologic perspective, it is still moving too slowly for humans to understand it as the crisis that it is.

I think this is why there haven’t been more successful films about climate change. We love movies about existential threats—mainly aliens—but in those stories individual characters make decisions to deal with the crisis within a couple of weeks. One of the few blockbuster films to deal directly with climate change, The Day After Tomorrow, imagined an Ice Age apocalypse that settles over Earth in a matter of days. Climate scientists rightfully criticized the movie, but I think it says something profound about the climate problem: Unless we unreasonably turn up the speed dial, we are incapable of fitting climate change into the kind of narrative that human beings are used to processing.

And yet, here we are, causing one of the fastest shifts the planet has ever experienced.

More at https://www.orionmagazine.org/article/the-stability-fantasy/

Download the free book from the mirrors at
https://libgen.unblockit.ch/search.php?req=Marcia+Bjornerud

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Sunday, August 15, 2021 4:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

The Arrival was a better movie than The Day After Tomorrow.

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Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."

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Monday, August 16, 2021 6:46 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The Arrival was a better movie than The Day After Tomorrow.

Hollywood could make the book The Ministry for the Future into a movie. Or Amazon could make the novel a 6 part TV miniseries.

I Can’t Stop Thinking About the First Chapter of This Climate Change Novel
https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/ministry-for-the-future-first-cha
pter-kim-stanley-robinson-interview.html
A conversation with Kim Stanley Robinson about The Ministry for the Future and this summer’s extreme heat.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Monday, August 16, 2021 9:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I figured I should clarify my previous statement.

I'm talking about THE Arrival (1996) with Charlie Sheen and Ron Silver. Not the one everybody was talking about a few years ago.

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Vaccinated People: "You need to get muh vaccination shots that don't work because I got muh vaccination shots that don't work and I'm afraid of people that didn't get muh vaccination shots that don't work because muh vaccination shots that don't work don't work."

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Tuesday, August 17, 2021 8:47 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Global sizzling: July was hottest month on record, NOAA says

Earth sizzled in July and became the hottest month in 142 years of recordkeeping, U.S. weather officials announced.

As extreme heat waves struck parts of the United States and Europe, the globe averaged 62.07 degrees (16.73 degrees Celsius) last month, beating out the previous record set in July 2016 and tied again in 2019 and 2020. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday. The margin was just .02 degrees (.01 Celsius),

The last seven Julys, from 2015 to 2021, have been the hottest seven Julys on record, said NOAA climatologist Ahira Sanchez-Lugo. Last month was 1.67 degrees (0.93 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 20th century average for the month.

“In this case first place is the worst place to be,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a press release. “This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.”

“This is climate change,” said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann. “It is an exclamation mark on a summer of unprecedented heat, drought, wildfires and flooding.”

Earlier this week, a prestigious United Nations science panel warned of worsening climate change caused by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas and other human activity.

Warming on land in western North America and in parts of Europe and Asia really drove the record-setting heat, Sanchez-Lugo said. While the worldwide temperature was barely higher than the record, what shattered it was land temperature over the Northern Hemisphere, she said.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures were a third of a degree (.19 degrees Celsius) higher than the previous record set in July 2012, which for temperature records is “a wide margin,” Sanchez-Lugo said.

July is the hottest month of the year for the globe, so this is also the hottest month on record.

One factor helping the world bake this summer is a natural weather cycle called the Arctic Oscillation, sort of a cousin to El Nino, which in its positive phase is associated with more warming, the NOAA climatologist said.

Even with a scorching July and a nasty June, this year so far is only the sixth warmest on record. That’s mostly because 2021 started cooler than recent years due to a La Nina cooling of the central Pacific that often reduces the global temperature average, Sanchez-Lugo said.

“One month by itself does not say much, but that this was a La Nina year and we still had the warmest temperatures on record ... fits with the pattern of what we have been seeing for most of the last decade now,” said University of Illinois meteorology professor Donald Wuebbles.

While the world set a record in July, the United States only tied for its 13th hottest July on record. Even though California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington had their hottest Julys, slightly cooler than normal months in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire kept the nation from approaching record heat levels.

The last time the globe had a July cooler than the 20th century average was in 1976, which was also the last year the globe was cooler than that normal.

“So if you’re younger than 45 you haven’t seen a year (or July) where the mean temperature of the planet was cooler than the 20th century average,” said Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

https://apnews.com/article/science-environment-and-nature-climate-chan
ge-f6cb3a4f7c2ecdb333a4f0fcfb1025f8

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Friday, August 20, 2021 8:04 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Oil and gas companies are illicitly flaring natural gas in the Texas Permian Basin and violating state law with impunity.

Methane, the main component of natural gas, is 10 times more damaging to the climate than carbon dioxide.

RRC Rule 32 allows flaring for 10 days while completing or servicing a well and during emergencies. Operators must apply for a permit if they need to flare for more than 24 hours, and permits are limited to 180 days, though commissioners routinely grant extensions.

But the RRC, which relies on the Texas Legislature for funding, has only 175 inspectors for over 175,000 wells. Commissioners rely on operators to follow the honor system.

Since the RRC makes no serious effort to police the industry, environmental groups have used aircraft, trucks and satellites to monitor flaring and emissions. Earthworks used the observation data to see how many operators are reporting their flares to the state.

Only 20 operators were reporting emergency flares out of more than 100 working in the Permian Basin. Big companies that publicly support tighter regulations on flaring and methane were not any more responsible than the smaller companies.

More at https://web.archive.org/web/20210820115526/https://www.houstonchronicl
e.com/business/columnists/tomlinson/article/Tomlinson-State-failing-to-limit-flaring-at-oil-16398400.php

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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