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Originally posted by second:
Is Russia losing?

So far, Russia has struggled to establish air superiority despite massive numerical superiority. According to pre-invasion data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia’s aerospace forces include 1,172 fixed-wing aircraft; Ukraine has 124. Yet Ukraine’s planes are still flying and its air defenses mostly remain in place; as a result, the Ukrainian military has been able to use air power against the Russian attackers, including deploying Turkish-made TB2 drones against slow Russian armored columns to devastating effect.

According to Farley, the issues with Russia’s air force run even deeper than lack of maintenance and fuel: Russian pilots lack adequate experience with this kind of campaign and do not train very effectively, while the leadership seems afraid to risk jets over Ukrainian skies.

More at https://www.vox.com/2022/3/18/22977801/russia-ukraine-war-losing-map-k
yiv-kharkiv-odessa-week-three

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
NATO just killed 4 US soldiers.

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
NATO just killed 4 US soldiers.

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Trump was right about NATO!

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Good one, clown.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Military plane crash kills 4 US troops during NATO exercise in Norway; unrelated to Ukraine

https://abc13.com/norway-military-plane-crash-us-soldiers-killed-nato-
exercise/11664028/



I guess, allegedly, it wasn't even in the name of the Ukraine propaganda. Good luck ever verifying that claim though.

What a waste.

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Originally posted by second:

Quote:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Military plane crash kills 4 US troops during NATO exercise in Norway; unrelated to Ukraine

https://abc13.com/norway-military-plane-crash-us-soldiers-killed-nato-
exercise/11664028/



I guess, allegedly, it wasn't even in the name of the Ukraine propaganda. Good luck ever verifying that claim though.

What a waste.

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What a waste? 6ix...

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Don't gaslight me you stupid fuck.

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Originally posted by second:
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof tweeted

Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured. The last official Russian KIA figure, on March 2, was 498.

Fascinating that someone posted the leaked number.

1:20 PM · Mar 21, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1505972650786672648

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Ukraine war: Defiant troops tell Russians: 'Go home while you're still alive'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60860548


Russia accuses Hunter Biden of funding Ukrainian biological weapons labs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/24/russia-accuses-hunte
r-biden-funding-ukrainian-biological-weapons/

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Originally posted by THG:

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
Is Russia losing?

So far, Russia has struggled to establish air superiority despite massive numerical superiority. According to pre-invasion data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia’s aerospace forces include 1,172 fixed-wing aircraft; Ukraine has 124. Yet Ukraine’s planes are still flying and its air defenses mostly remain in place; as a result, the Ukrainian military has been able to use air power against the Russian attackers, including deploying Turkish-made TB2 drones against slow Russian armored columns to devastating effect.

According to Farley, the issues with Russia’s air force run even deeper than lack of maintenance and fuel: Russian pilots lack adequate experience with this kind of campaign and do not train very effectively, while the leadership seems afraid to risk jets over Ukrainian skies.

More at https://www.vox.com/2022/3/18/22977801/russia-ukraine-war-losing-map-k
yiv-kharkiv-odessa-week-three

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Ukraine reportedly sinks Russian Warship Orsk. Which also set fire to other ships, and destroyed refueling port.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/ukraine-sinks-orsk-russi
an-ship-moscow-accused-forcible-deportations-mariupol

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Originally posted by THG:
China slapped a $500 million sanctions on Russia, Putin panicked when his allies betrayed him

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Still flogging the same old shit, eh THUGR?

Haven't learned YET that you're being lied to? Will you ever?

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Twitter thread describing the sorry state of much of Russia today, who makes up the soldier class, and why Russian soldiers in Ukraine can't believe how well Ukrainians lived:

Sergej Sumlenny
@sumlenny
Berlin-based Eastern Europe expert. 10+ yrs of work in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus.
Kyiv (UA+BY)office.

In many tapped phone calls between Russian soldiers and their relatives (Russians steal UKR mobile phones, use them, SBU taps) they tell same story: how rich Ukraine is, how much they have looted, and how cool ppl lived here. Some saw asphalt and street lights for the fist time.

Many Western experts and politicians loved to repeat the story of "rich Russia and poor Ukraine". The fact is, that except of extra rich Moscow and Petersburg, Russia is an underdeveloped country, and average Ukrainian province lives much better than average Russian province.

I don't even talk about political freedoms in Ukraine like election of mayors, free press, local self-governance etc. - soldiers do not see this. Ukrainians have better roads, better lights, more money, better food, better connection with neighbour countries. This shocks Russians

They were told all the times that Ukraine is a failed state with people who work like slaves in Europe and have nothing. Now they see the reality where every gasoline station has a computer-operated coffee machine with 30 types of teas, coffee and hot chocolate, and a whisky bar.

For those who continue to ask me about asphalt. Guys, this is the main road in diamant- and gas-rich Yakutsk region. Photos of cars stuck there after rains appear regularly. I understand that Moscow can be chic and cool, and you havn't seen anything else, but Russia is not Moscow.

According to official data of Russian State Statistics Service "Rosstat", 22,6% of Russians lived in 2019 in houses without running water. In rural areas, it were 66,5%. Think about it: 2/3 of rural conscripts had to shit into holes all their life long

Out of all Russians - living in both rural AND urban areas, including chic Moscow, St. Petersburg etc., 40,9% of families who have 3 or more kids, had no running water in their house in Russia in 2019. This is the official statistics of Russian government.

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Not to beat a dead horse, but: OneFckingGuy

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Originally posted by second:
What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelenskyy to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Alexei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220331074328/https://www.nytimes.com/202
2/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html

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Quote:

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Originally posted by captaincrunch:

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:
What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?

Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.

It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelenskyy to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.

Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Alexei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.

This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220331074328/https://www.nytimes.com/202
2/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html

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Lot of IF coming off that plan... literally.

This lines up with the typical pattern of reporting. The timeline for reporting is something like: once a pov gets too popular amongst all outlets (Putin's a nob), then it's time to write a piece that says the opposite, "wait just a second, he really is the chess master!"

I don't buy it. As some of us have mentioned, there would have been quicker, cheaper, less costly in material, less deadly, less embarrassing, less devastating to the Russian people and the Russian economy, to achieve Donbas control. Hell, he could just raise the price of gas for a month and be in a better place.
And of course bombing civilians puts pressure on Zelensky to negotiate - I don't think Brett is uncovering some kind of great insight. If anything we should have known that Putin is a one note strategist from Grozny and Aleppo and the fact that the one category Russia out does NATO in military armaments is in rockets - all kinds. No better way to make sure you are attacking civilians.

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Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Russians lost inside Russia?

Belgorod: First Ukrainian airstrike on Russian territory
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/belgorod-first-ukr
ainian-airstrike-on-russian-territory/]

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Yep, loved hearing about it.

T

Quote:

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Originally posted by second:

Russia is hinting at peace. Here's why Ukraine shouldn't take it.

A just peace doesn't only mean that the guns stop firing.

That's where the humanitarian argument for a quick deal in Ukraine falls short. Freezing the conflict in its current condition might save hundreds or thousands of non-combatants who would otherwise face injury or death. But it would also effectively reward Russia for its act of aggression, adding to the territory under its control and giving its forces the opportunity to rebuild. Even a sustained pause in fighting would not really be peace. Instead, it would merely begin a countdown to the next war, when Russia might try again to dismember or even annex its neighbor.

Russia's not the only consideration, either. As the old antiwar slogan goes, "the whole world is watching." Allowing Russia to escape the political, military, and economic consequences of its invasion sends a signal to other states that they can expect to get off easy, too. It might even create a perverse incentive to maximize threats to civilians. If preserving lives is the paramount objective, after all, civilian suffering can then be invoked cynically to lock in ill-gotten gains.

I've written in the past about the dangers of a vindictive response to the war. Demonizing the Russian people and culture is also an obstacle to just peace, because it heightens fears that Russia's very survival is threatened under the status quo.

But avoiding one extreme of moral crusading doesn't require lapsing into the opposite vice of naive and counterproductive humanitarianism. The just war tradition holds that pursuing a peace worth having means continuing to fight. For the moment, that is still the case in Ukraine.

More at https://theweek.com/world/1011961/russia-is-hinting-at-peace-heres-why
-ukraine-shouldnt-take-it

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

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