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What is the average margin of error in most polls?

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Originally posted by Righteous9:

What will Rove and the GOP roll out just a couple weeks before election day? Figured I'd steal some of their lightles thunder before we hear about whatever 'revelation' it is in the context of some distorted reality rather than political timeliness, and manipulation.

Come up with your own, but here are a few that I think could happen...

Terrorist attack! - don't know how this would play after all the rhetoric about how we haven't been hit since 9/11, but fear is always a seller.

Major terrorist attack thwarted - not playing so well any more...they'd need something big here, like actually finding a person who was in possession of a dirty bomb.

Bin Laden Killed - I expect this one.

or my personal favorite, because I thought of it -- Weapons of Mass destruction found in Iraq after all...these long years. I would never put such machinations past this administration, but I don't know whether it would be too risky to attempt to stage. If such a find was bought by the American people though, it would appear to vindicate this administration. I'm not sure whether the American people will buy anything Bush is selling ever again, but liberals would hear forever from talking heads, how they owe this administration an apology for accusing it of either lying, or grave incompetence.

Any others?

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Originally posted by rue:
You know what I find weird? In the last two elections cycles Democrats lead 3 - 5% in the polls. Then they lost by that amount in key states - leading people to tell election officials "you got some 'splainin' to do". Now you don't heard news about ANY polls. No polls - no strange discrepancies - no awkward questions after the elections. Problem solved.

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Originally posted by Righteous9:

Yeah, the polls are being downplayed. You can find them though. They were looking great for dems, but the closer we get to the election the closer the numbers get within the margin of error -- go figure. Harder to steal an election that is nowhere close in the polls I guess.

The assasination thing is also scary. It would be a horrible thing for this county if he were assasinated or shot at. The whole grenade thing didn't seem to help him much though - but as a martyr? I thought of this before I heard about the movie. The powers that be have basically gotten all the use out of him they could. He's damaged goods now. He'd be much more useful to them dead, you'd think. Good thing for him for his dad I guess.

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Originally posted by FellowTraveler:
My guess is that we have already seen the surprise: drastically falling gas prices. That is not to say this drop is organized or controlled by the Bush Administration or the Republicans, but I hypothesize it is instead being done by private interests because they know, quite frankly, who butters their bread (see Energy Bill).

Regarding the discepancies between the polls and actual votes, there might be a much less sinister explanation. Most polls I see are conducted nationwide, which means they are worthless. What a majority of voters think across the country means very little in your home state. It means even less in your Congressional district, which has been gerrymandered to such a degree that public opinion is inconsequential.

Oh, and The Post is owned by Murdoch. It's The Times Republicans are supposed to hate...

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Originally posted by rue:
Canker sore,

I would like to see ANY analysis that took a long view of Bush's policies and evaluated them one by one.

Bush can't stand on his record. That's why there's a media flurry of non-news, all pointing anywhere else but at Bush's many failures. It's easy to propagandize the public when the media does your dirty work for you.

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Originally posted by kaneman:
Another conspiracy? Nothing as unusual as gas prices falling after labor day. I smell a fix!

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Back in July, both crude oil and gasoline hit their highest recorded prices. Gas was averaging about three dollars a gallon. By mid-September, oil had dropped about fifteen bucks a barrel. So gas should have dropped about forty five cents a gallon. But actually dropped fifty cents a gallon, and more since then. We asked professor Ashkay Rao, who studies pricing strategies, if President Bush could have had a hand in plummeting gas prices.

Rao says, "surely if he picked up the phone and made five or ten strategic phone calls he might be able to influence prices to some degree. But I think that's a fairly far-fetched theory.

While he doubts the conspiracy theory, Rao says it's conceivable the price cuts might have come from the energy industry, without any prompting from Washington, out of fear that if the Democrats win, they'll make good on threats to tax the energy industry more heavily.

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Originally posted by rue:
You know, I work with people who've maintained all along there will be some huge event - something large enough to declare martial law and to claim authority to cancel elections. They've speculated dirty bombs, anthrax, assassination -
I personally don't hold with this, but it's interesting that highly educated people (people with science PhDs and political connections) do give this credit.

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Originally posted by Righteous9:
The powers that be have basically gotten all the use out of him they could. He's damaged goods now. He'd be much more useful to them dead, you'd think.

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Originally posted by Righteous9:

What will Rove and the GOP roll out just a couple weeks before election day? ...


Major terrorist attack thwarted - not playing so well any more...they'd need something big here, like actually finding a person who was in possession of a dirty bomb.

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Remember, the real key to an October surprise it that it doesn't have to be *T*R*U*E*, it just has to come along late enough for there to be no time to show that it was exaggeration or an outright lie.

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Ruse, He's a two term prez. I'd call that standing on ones record. Or should I just pretend he wasn't voted in twice,

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You know what they say about college degrees not being worth the paper they're printed on any more. I'm curious Ruse, where do you work?

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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You know what they say about college degrees not being worth the paper they're printed on any more. I'm curious Ruse, where do you work?

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You do NOT want to get into this. But since you already stepped into it ... tell me Canker Sore, where do YOU work? DO you work? You DO work, right? And you area of expertise is... what? High school?

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Originally posted by rue:

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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You know what they say about college degrees not being worth the paper they're printed on any more. I'm curious Ruse, where do you work?

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You do NOT want to get into this. But since you already stepped into it ... tell me Canker Sore, where do YOU work? DO you work? You DO work, right? And you area of expertise is... what? High school?

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PS - SignyM

You won't get a reply on this. I believe canker sore sends an SOS to slick, who ghosts the posts. That's why the lack of foul language, 'well it's true' sign-off, incoherent wording, and other typical characteristics. The change of topic, dismissive and belittling innuendo, the wording, variety of techniques, etc not just in this post but over several posts are more in keeping with slick.

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My expertise is in animal behavior. I usually help diagnose and determine the cause of psychological changes in pets and farm animals. A typical day has me going to peoples homes and farms, trying to connect with the animals, in an effort to try and understand sudden change in behavior. My newest client is a piglet named Charles. His owners are quite distraught that he refuses to walk on four legs. My early diagnoses is that he developed a bipedal complex watching their two year old daughter learning to walk. Who can blame him...poor thing, my heart goes out to him. - Kaneman

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Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Actually my bid has to do with a provocation strike against Iran, either by direct support of radicals who hate the current regime (kinda like our support of the Mujahadeen against the Soviets, which lead to the Taliban) which will no doubt boomerang on us like OBL and Saddam did, or by some form of strike against their nuclear program.

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Originally posted by SignyM:

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My expertise is in animal behavior. I usually help diagnose and determine the cause of psychological changes in pets and farm animals. A typical day has me going to peoples homes and farms, trying to connect with the animals, in an effort to try and understand sudden change in behavior. My newest client is a piglet named Charles. His owners are quite distraught that he refuses to walk on four legs. My early diagnoses is that he developed a bipedal complex watching their two year old daughter learning to walk. Who can blame him...poor thing, my heart goes out to him. - Kaneman

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Huh. I'm a nuclear physicist myself. Also a brain surgeon and a spy. That's why I know so much about so much. My informants tell me that your total lack of empathy and insight often leads you to misdiagnose your victi... I mean, clients. Is it true that you told the owners to put the poor pig our of it's misery and have bacon for breakfast?


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WHEEEE!!!! This is fun!!

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Not that I wouldn't put that past these guys (anything to expand the Empire), but won't China back Iran if the US starts a fight. I can't imagine anyone, Democrat or Republican, who wants that. China has what, like a billion man standing army? We would get our asses handed to us...

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Not that I wouldn't put that past these guys (anything to expand the Empire), but won't China back Iran if the US starts a fight. I can't imagine anyone, Democrat or Republican, who wants that. China has what, like a billion man standing army? We would get our asses handed to us...

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