Well darn, I can't find that thread ... by rue

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Have they EVER been tested in a realistic scenario - ie, target trajectory NOT preprogrammed, with credible decoys (not balloons)? And if so, what percentage of trials resulted in a hit?

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 10:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Have they EVER been tested in a realistic scenario - ie, target trajectory NOT preprogrammed, with credible decoys (not balloons)? And if so, what percentage of trials resulted in a hit?

That’s a lot of details your asking for. Details I’ll have to look up and details you won’t listen to anyway. But the short answers are: Yes. Balloons are credible decoys. And depends on the system, how it’s being used, how a success is defined, etc, etc. The PAC is the only ABM system has had been tested under wartime conditions and has rendered a success rate of near 100% in battle, which demonstrates that the principle is sound. Other systems have not been tested in battle, and have not demonstrated as high a success rate, but have demonstrated successful interception capability in tests flights. GMD and ABMD have demonstrated successful interceptions of 8 out of 13 and 8 out of 10, respectively, since 2000.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 11:00 AM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Yes, but these tests were dummied-up. And the criteria for 'success' changes from test to test. ie In the first phase a 'success' is that the rockets fire. In the second phase a 'success' is that the stages work. In the third phase a 'success' is that a payload launched. And so on. The last test I know about (2006) which was claimed to be the most realistic test to date, the target trajectory was pre-programmed and there were no decoys. That's why I'm asking about testing protocols and looking for details. B/c none of the details indicate to me that, though it's been deployed, the system is even in the beta-testing phase.

And now that I think about it, during the run up to the NK missile launch there was a lot of offcial back-peddling about the real-world capability of the system.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 11:04 AM

All of these test flights resulted in a successful intercept. And I know of no test flight in 2006 in which the target’s trajectory was pre-programmed into the interceptor.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 11:07 AM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

"All of these test flights resulted in a successful intercept. And I know of no test flight in 2006 in which the target’s trajectory was pre-programmed into the interceptor."

B/c I know things you don't.

A link would be helpful. What you write is at complete divergence from everything else I've read.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 12:00 PM

You give me a mission name.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 12:49 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
B/c I know things you don't.

A link would be helpful. What you write is at complete divergence from everything else I've read.

Wow.....the height of hubris!! I know more than you do, but I won't tell you what I know and how I know it because then you would know and could possibly prove me wrong. All while demanding a cite and providing none yourself. You got balls the size of church bells, I'll give you that!

-----------------
"There is not such a cradle of democracy upon the earth as the Free Public Library, this republic of letters, where neither rank, office, nor wealth receives the slightest consideration."
---Andrew Carnegie

"Doing research on the Web is like using a library assembled piecemeal by pack rats and vandalized nightly."
---Roger Ebert

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 1:08 PM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

"Wow ..... I know more than you do, but I won't tell you what I know and how I know it because" my source has to be completely anonymous. Even if someone traces me (which is completely possible and may already have been done) I'm not going to provide clues for the trail.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 1:09 PM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

"You give me a mission name."

You provide links to the claims you made, which I asked for. How about it?

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 1:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
"Wow ..... I know more than you do, but I won't tell you what I know and how I know it because" my source has to be completely anonymous. Even if someone traces me (which is completely possible and may already have been done) I'm not going to provide clues for the trail.

Again, even greater heights of hubris! I know something you don't...neh..neh..neh..boo..boo!

How exactly do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you cannot backup one of your claims with evidentary fact? Not only are you expecting us to take your word for it, you expect us to disprove you without having to offer any proof of your assertion beyond some nebulous "..I know someone" statement.

Wow...again my only response is...that's ballsy!!

-----------------
"There is not such a cradle of democracy upon the earth as the Free Public Library, this republic of letters, where neither rank, office, nor wealth receives the slightest consideration."
---Andrew Carnegie

"Doing research on the Web is like using a library assembled piecemeal by pack rats and vandalized nightly."
---Roger Ebert

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 1:42 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
"You give me a mission name."

You provide links to the claims you made, which I asked for. How about it?

I’m not doing your research for you. If you can’t even name a mission, you don’t know what you’re talking about.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 2:07 PM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

"Details I’ll have to look up and details you won’t listen to anyway." Try me.

I'm not asking you about a test in 2006, I'm asking you to back up your whole raft of claims, like the ones quoted below:
"The PAC is the only ABM system has had been tested under wartime conditions and has rendered a success rate of near 100% in battle"
"GMD and ABMD have demonstrated successful interceptions of 8 out of 13 and 8 out of 10, respectively, since 2000"

Obviously you got these facts from somewhere, right? Link them.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 2:16 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
B/c I know things you don't.

No one is asking for anything more than what you supposedly know! Obviously you got this knowledge from somewhere.

A link would help!

-----------------
"There is not such a cradle of democracy upon the earth as the Free Public Library, this republic of letters, where neither rank, office, nor wealth receives the slightest consideration."
---Andrew Carnegie

"Doing research on the Web is like using a library assembled piecemeal by pack rats and vandalized nightly."
---Roger Ebert

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 2:17 PM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Not going to bite. You'll have to think of something else beside childish insults.

Quote:
Originally posted by Razza:
Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
"Wow ..... I know more than you do, but I won't tell you what I know and how I know it because" my source has to be completely anonymous. Even if someone traces me (which is completely possible and may already have been done) I'm not going to provide clues for the trail.

Again, even greater heights of hubris! I know something you don't...neh..neh..neh..boo..boo!

How exactly do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you cannot backup one of your claims with evidentary fact? Not only are you expecting us to take your word for it, you expect us to disprove you without having to offer any proof of your assertion beyond some nebulous "..I know someone" statement.

Wow...again my only response is...that's ballsy!!

-----------------
"There is not such a cradle of democracy upon the earth as the Free Public Library, this republic of letters, where neither rank, office, nor wealth receives the slightest consideration."
---Andrew Carnegie

"Doing research on the Web is like using a library assembled piecemeal by pack rats and vandalized nightly."
---Roger Ebert

Quote:
Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
"You give me a mission name."

You provide links to the claims you made, which I asked for. How about it?
I’m not doing your research for you. If you can’t even name a mission, you don’t know what you’re talking about.

Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 2:21 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Not going to bite. You'll have to think of something else beside childish insults.

Nothing to bite at...you'll have to come up with a better arguement than I know something you do not and oh by the way I can't provide any source for my knowledge because then I'd have to kill you.

Oh, sorry...I forgot...I'm the one being childish.

-----------------
"There is not such a cradle of democracy upon the earth as the Free Public Library, this republic of letters, where neither rank, office, nor wealth receives the slightest consideration."
---Andrew Carnegie

"Doing research on the Web is like using a library assembled piecemeal by pack rats and vandalized nightly."
---Roger Ebert

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 2:30 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Obviously you got these facts from somewhere, right? Link them.

Why? To dispute a claim you’re hiding behind some cloak and dagger crap? I’m sure it’s all on the internet somewhere, but that’s not where I got it. If you would like to give me a mission, then I’ll see what I can find. Baring that, you’ll have to do your own research.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 2:33 PM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

FORGET 2006 ! GOD! How many times do I have to say that? You made a whole bunch of claims before that topic even came up. All I'm saying is you made those claims, back them up. Jeesh.

Unless of course, YOU can't back them up.. HHmmmm .... puts a whole new spin on your post.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 3:08 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
OOHHH, the very first paragraph states that it is for US defense from rogue nations - not defense of Europe. But moving along, you'll notice that nowhere does it say these systems are currently operational. It's a description of how things are supposed to be.

Well, aside from it being more a technical description than a strategic plan...10 interceptors have been deployed at Ft. Greely, Alaska. The systems in Poland and the Czech Republic aren't planned to be operational until 2010-2011.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 3:11 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
FORGET 2006 ! GOD! How many times do I have to say that? You made a whole bunch of claims before that topic even came up. All I'm saying is you made those claims, back them up. Jeesh.

Not quite.

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Yuh. After the interceptors are pre-programmed with the target's flight path. (Happen to know the programmer who did that.)

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
Unless of course, YOU can't back them up.. HHmmmm .... puts a whole new spin on your post.

Now there's the pot calling the kettle black.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007 3:59 PM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

In other words you can't. So the only way you can get out of it is to pretend you didn't make a lot of claims (that you now can't back up) and this is all about one particular point I made much later on. What a crock.

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Thursday, May 31, 2007 2:47 AM