Hoo yeah! The economy's ON FIRE! by SignyM

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Hoo yeah! The economy's ON FIRE!

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Wednesday, July 2, 2008 09:01
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Friday, November 9, 2007 7:05 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Marooned????

GROOOOOOOOAN!!!!!

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Always look upstream.

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Friday, November 9, 2007 9:23 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Worse.

Ask how we carry the deficit debt.
Ask how much money we owe China.
Ask what our chances of paying it are.
Ask what China may do when we default.

Ugly, ugly business, that.

Roger Sherman was entirely right.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Saturday, November 10, 2007 3:33 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Okay Frem, ya got me. I had to look up Roger Sherman. But I can't find what he said relevant to the situation.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Saturday, November 10, 2007 8:20 AM

FREMDFIRMA

Roger Sherman was one of our founding fathers, signatory of the Declaration of Independence, Articles of Confederation, and the US Constitution - he is one of the rare few who's signature appears on all three.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Sherman

He hated usury, and saw very clearly the dangers of "fiat money" even before the disaster of trying to use a fluctuating medium to finance the american revolution, which resulted in a currency so debased it gave rise to the phrase "Not worth a Continental!"

http://www.coins.nd.edu/ColCurrency/CurrencyText/CC-02-17-76.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_dollar

His most specific vitriol, was directed at "bills of credit".

His primary contribution to the US Constitution was a single phrase, intended to forestall fiat money of any kind.
"“No State shall make any Thing but Gold and Silver Coin a tender in Payment of Debts”

In 1752 he financed a Handbill that was distributed under the title.
A Caveat Against Injustice
or, An Inquiry into the Evils of a Fluctuating Medium of Exchange.

You can find a fulltext copy HERE.

http://www.constitution.org/cmt/rsherman/caveatagainst.htm

I am citing pages 48-51 as relative to the topic at hand.

Also a more easy on the eyes variation can be found HERE.

http://www.rogershermansociety.org/caveat.htm

I will also cite that while he and Franklin disagreed over the type of currency, he was however quite fond of it's original motto.
"Mind your (own) business."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_your_own_business

I find it rather curious that wiki somehow manages to miss associating him with the handbill I cite - given it's popularity and influance, but wiki's been rather overrun as of late with deletionists wishing to re-write history more favorably to the established order.

-Frem

(EDIT, adding this interesting link.
http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/7006/caveat.html )

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Saturday, November 10, 2007 9:16 AM

GINOBIFFARONI

For further reading on the orgins of your Federal Reserve, and other thing which are poping up in this thread I would like to suggest this book

http://www.amazon.com/Creature-Jekyll-Island-Federal-Reserve/dp/091298
6212

Very Interesting

The Alliance said they were gonna waltz through Serenity Valley. And we choked 'em with those words. We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty.

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Wednesday, July 2, 2008 5:37 AM

JAYNEZTOWN

The precious metal rallies as the dollar softens and wary investors flee the stock market amid credit concerns and high oil.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/26/markets/gold/

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Wednesday, July 2, 2008 6:12 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Isn't that evidence that gold is ALSO a floating medium of exchange ? After all, it's only as valuable as people think it is. And if you are starving or dying of thirst in a country where your neighbors are starving or dying of thirst, food or water would be much, much more valuable than gold.

No one would care for your gold bangle or ivory necklace. You can't eat it or drink it, after all.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Wednesday, July 2, 2008 6:25 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Well, time to re-think my investments... again. Most of my hedge funds (against the dollar) have matured. Made some bucks there and would like to repeat the process.

I just wonder - how far is the dollar going to sink, and how long is this going to last? Many institutions are not just "illiquid" but "insolvent". If home prices continue to fall and bankruptcies continue to rise... as it looks like they will, with a slowing economy... they may face signifcant "negative balance sheets". The Fed has already opened the door to bailing out not only traditional banks and S&Ls, but also investment houses (like Bear Stearns). But if too many dominoes fall (one bank failure taking out other banks and institutions) the Fed may wind up flooding the market with currency. As it is, other nations already dont' want to be holding the dollar. China is stuck with 2-5 year contracts with Walmart and other US companies, but you can bet your bottom dollar (so to speak!) that prices and terms will be renegotiated as soon as those contracts are up!

On the flip side....

Come to think of it, I can't FIND a flip side. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be any "natural" (market-driven) forces acting in opposition to the downturn, which I think can escalate to historic proportions. (And despite the fact that I personally remember the S&L crisis, the FIRST oil crisis, several burst housing bubbles and a couple of recessions, this is only the second time I think the dollar is in serious international trouble.)

So IMHO the only way to reverse the situation is to flatten the heavily skewed income distribution in the USA, strongly regulate all credit to prevent predatory practices, "encourage" solvent institutions to acquire insolvent ones, and stand by with the printing presses to bail out failed banks, S&L's and/or investment firms. Most of that is not about to happen under this current administration, or at least not in the amount that's going to do any good.

So, now that I've thought out loud, I think I know what to do next.

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Wednesday, July 2, 2008 6:54 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Ehh ... PM me and let me know. I've done really well but I too need to turn over my current investments, which have topped out.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Wednesday, July 2, 2008 9:01 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

For me the question was: Should I continue to bet against the dollar, or will that vast inchoate mob called "investor" (AKA speculator) come to think that the dollar is undervalued and buy into it? In other words, is what we just saw the bottom, or was it merely a pause on the way down?

I THINK it was a pause on the way down.

A lot of people say.... H*ll, the dollar lost 30-40% against the other major currencies. That's too much. What I don't think they realize that we may be past hidden boundaries/ thresholds that KEPT values in the "same old same old" category. What used to be "too much" may not look like very much a couple of years from now.

So now the question is... If I'm betting against the dollar (and don't even THINK about the stock market or the housing market for the next six- eight months!) what about I going to bet on?

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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