WOW - Lookit the DOW go ! by rue

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

WOW - Lookit the DOW go !

POSTED BY: RUE
UPDATED: Monday, August 11, 2008 11:55
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 7:31 AM

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Down, that is.

Baby Bush has quite a record. Consumer confidence at a record low, jobless rate up, home equity at the lowest rate since the 1940's, gas over $4 per gallon (thanks in part to), the US dollar weak internationally ...

... but CLINTON ! Wait, that doesn't work any more. Hmmm ............... but 9/11 !! Hmmm, that was 7 years ago, wasn't it.

I KNOW ! Bush has no control over the economy ! NONE !

All those economic policies he was so happy to institute. Pointless. Yeah, that works.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 7:49 AM

HERO

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
... but CLINTON ! Wait, that doesn't work any more. Hmmm ......... but 9/ 11 !! Hmmm, that was 7 years ago, wasn't it.

No. The "but Clinton" does not work. Its "because Clinton"...

Because Clinton:
...allowed Al Queda to become an international threat.
...failed to recognize the coming energy crisis that began with the electric shortages and gas price spikes in 1999 and 2000.
...failed to allocate money for Corps of Engineers plans to strengthen levies around New Orleans.
...failed to deal effectively with Iraq, Iran, Russia, or North Korea.
...allowed the accounting scandals that plagued Wall Street during Bush's first term.
...cut the military in half.
...decided that the CIA didn't really need people working there.
...fostered a culture of corruption by selling off everything from the Lincoln Bedroom to pardons.
...failed to capitalize on the opportunity for Middle East peace in the post-Gulf War period and then failed to defuse the renewed violence against Isreal (on the upside he did well in Northern Ireland.)
I'm not saying Bush is without fault. But he was starting from a big negative left by Clinton and has been plagued by some really bad luck...like Hurricane Katrina. Clinton left him with less then nothing.

H

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 7:59 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

And the economy? How is Clinton at fault for the huge Federal deficit and the biggest income gap since 1929?

Funny, but the people who claim so much to want accountability are the ones who constantly shirk it.

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 8:21 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

HA HA HA HA HA

Hero, you'd be so funny if you weren't so lame. Don't quit your day job, eh ?

But 9/11 ! That was 7 friggin' years ago, dummy ! But Clinton ! 8 to 15 years ago !

Is that the best you can do ? Seriously, you need a brain.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 10:13 AM

HERO

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
But 9/11 ! That was 7 friggin' years ago, dummy ! But Clinton ! 8 to 15 years ago !

9/11 was the singular defining moment of the Bush Presidency and has dramatically altered every aspect of domestic, foriegn, military, social, and economic policy since it happened.

Unless you are arguing that the entire 9/11 plot and Al Queda began after January 20th of 2001, then an examination of how Clinton policy carried over into the Bush presidency is well taken.

We didn't simply wake up that Saturday morning and suddenly as Bush takes the oath all these problems magically appear. The buildings were just as vulnerable in 2000, the levies just as likely to breach, FEMA just as unprepared, the military just as understaffed (actually more so since the Bush military reforms were well underway by September), the oil just as in the ground, the refineries just as not built, the power plants just as insuffient, bridges just as stressed, and so on...

Bush was forced into a very reactionary policy as the failings of the Clinton administrated manifested themselves in crisis after crisis, some, like Katrina, unavoidable and most unpredictable.

H

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 10:44 AM

RIGHTEOUS9

bullshit

with each passing day certain issues become more relevant and more dire. To this day all Bush has done in response to those issues is to ignore them or to make them worse.

When they were telling him that an attack was eminent, he ignored it,

when they were telling him Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, he ignored that,

when they were telling him Katrina was going to be bad(remember brown's video conference with him?), he said he had it well in hand...he went to california, played the guitar,

when they were telling him the ice-caps were melting, he said there was no problem, no reason for treaties, no reason for regulations...etc...

when they were asking him how he was going to pay for this war and reconstruction, he and his people said it would come from Iraqi oil,

at the same time he gave all the rich people a major tax break--- I got nothing, my parents jointly got like 300, and people like him got 90,000 dollars, deepening our deficit. Want to tell me it worked at this point? That it trickled? Maybe into rival nations...

and on and on...

don't give us the line that this war was a reaction. That is pure B.S., and you know it too. It was a conveniant opportunity for war profiteering, and that objective has gone quite according to plan, for all those companies that helped to beat the drum that led to this fiasco.

It's bullshit to say that it's Clinton's fault that Bush has responded badly or not at all, or directly contradictory to, the problems at hand, over and over and over again.

But with you I always get the feeling that you know that...that this is more of a game than an actual belief...you choose your sides, you play the game and you move up in your tiered society...got it. Not that you don't have to believe your own bullshit just a little bit.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 11:03 AM

CHRISISALL

Quote:
Originally posted by Righteous9:

don't give us the line that this war was a reaction. That is pure B.S., and you know it too. It was a conveniant opportunity for war profiteering, and that objective has gone quite according to plan, for all those companies that helped to beat the drum that led to this fiasco.

That is a point none will give up- that it was absolutely CRITICAL that Saddam be taken down lest he destroy the West's way of life. He was the next Hitler. And not just WMD were in his reach, he also had guidance systems, battleships & 600 million more troops...just we can't find those at the moment, either.
Man, I was quakin' my boots, lemme tell ya...

isall

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 11:09 AM

RIGHTEOUS9

His WMD is plain to see actually....

you thought that was the moon?

Deathstar!!!

If only the deathstar had oil....sigh

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 11:27 AM

CHRISISALL

Quote:
Originally posted by Righteous9:

His WMD is plain to see actually....

you thought that was the moon?

Holy crap! LOL, you is as crazy as me!

LOLisall

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 12:34 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up

End of 2001, right after 9/11, the Dow was 10021.5. A low of 7286.27 came about a year after 9/11, on October 10, 2002. Today it's 12083.77.

Gas prices? Europe wishes they could get gas for $4.00 a gallon.

Unemployment? Lots of Europe wishes they could get down to 5.5%.

Hardly the end of the world.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 12:38 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
End of 2001, right after 9/11, the Dow was 10021.5. A low of 7286.27 came about a year after 9/11, on October 10, 2002. Today it's 12083.77.

You're as stupid as Rapo. Where were you when we went through that whole thread about how a lot of indicators are DOWN when you adjust for inflation? I'll bet you can't balance your checkbook either.

Quote:
Gas prices? Europe wishes they could get gas for $4.00 a gallon. Unemployment? Lots of Europe wishes they could get down to 5.5%.

Well, too bad for them they caught the real-estate bug from us; it bit UBS and a lot of German and British national banks that bought SVIs from us. (The only banks that avoided the fiasco are Spanish because their central bank said "NO!") But overall their standard of living is still higher than ours, and they don't have such deep poverty.
U.S. life expectancy still trails 30 countries www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/06/11/life.expectancy.ap/index.html

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:01 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)

Quote:
The buildings were just as vulnerable in 2000, the levies just as likely to breach, FEMA just as unprepared, the military just as understaffed (actually more so since the Bush military reforms were well underway by September), the oil just as in the ground, the refineries just as not built, the power plants just as insuffient, bridges just as stressed, and so on...

So you're saying that Bush is no better than Clinton, and hasn't done a thing to improve... well, ANYTHING. At last, something we agree on!

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 1:59 PM

RIGHTEOUS9

and Bush had 6 years to work with where his party controlled all branches of government.

Clinton's last years were spent under fire for a blow job.

Apparently when you get all the branches on the same page under Republican Rule, that can finally make the policies they want to make without those damn obstructionist anti-american dems....

this is what you get.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 2:53 PM

KWICKO

Soooooo... If, say, Obama wins in November...

I'm guessing that on the day after the election, all of the bad things that are currently going on with the economy would magically (by the power of transsubstantiation, I suppose) become one hundred percent Obama's fault, immediately. Of course, if by some miracle things turned around the day after the Inauguration, then that would, of course, be entirely due to Bush's enlightened policies. If, however, things stayed bad for six years of an Obama two-term presidency, that would of necessity be because of Bill Clinton's policies way back when. If things then suddenly turned around for his last two years in office, that would, of course, be because of Bush's actions.

Have I got that about right? I'm just practicing using these new Republican filters. Everything's so much more rosy with them on!

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 3:58 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
You're as stupid as Rapo.

Wow. such a cogent argument.

Quote:
Where were you when we went through that whole thread about how a lot of indicators are DOWN when you adjust for inflation? I'll bet you can't balance your checkbook either.

Let's see. Inflation since 2001 about 20%. Increase in the Dow since 2001 about 20%. Figure we got the worst attack on US soil and a couple of wars in that period. Oooh.

Quote:
Well, too bad for them(Europe)they caught the real-estate bug from us; it bit UBS and a lot of German and British national banks that bought SVIs from us. (The only banks that avoided the fiasco are Spanish because their central bank said "NO!")

So thay're not as smart as you seem to think they are.

Quote:
But overall their standard of living is still higher than ours, and they don't have such deep poverty.

Cites please.

Quote:
U.S. life expectancy still trails 30 countries www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/06/11/life.expectancy.ap/index.html

Or 43 countries on Nationmaster. Max is Andorra at 83.52. U.S. is 79 (4.52 under the max. Wooo!). Average for the world is 68.4. 176 countries, including Denmark, Ireland, and your heroes in Cuba, are lower. Most European countries are within a year or two.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. You play that game well.

Sorry, but it's still not the end of the world. People who lived through the Depression would laugh at your worries.

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 7:17 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Sorry, but it's still not the end of the world. People who lived through the Depression would laugh at your worries.

Of course it's not the end of the world ya dimwit! But

Lehman shares plummet amid write-down fears
Asian stocks sink on inflation, credit fears
WaMu denies regulatory move rumors as shares fall

www.reuters.com

Foreclosures up 75% in 2007
www.cnn.money.com

Monoline Death Watch: Moody's Puts MBIA, Ambac on Review for Downgrade
www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/monoline-death-watch-moodys-puts-mbia.
html

Still, even counting the current price of oil and food, the biggest problem that we're facing is ecological: global warming and overpopulation.

AFA cites are concerned, you can use nationmaster as well as I. So look at things like literacy rates, education, life expectancy, crime rate, happiness, and other indicators of lifestyle and tell me what you find.

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Wednesday, June 11, 2008 9:17 PM

CITIZEN

Quote:
Originally posted by Geezer:
So thay're not as smart as you seem to think they are.

The banks got greedy, but what happened is the American Banks sold bad debts, that they knew were bad, hidden amongst good ones. It's buried so well that no one is sure which are bad and which are good, so all are suspect, which turns out to be worse than the bad debt in the first place because much of banking is done on how trustworthy a portfolio is.

It's like a used car salesman winding the clock back few thousand miles to sell that old heap. If it's not illegal, it should be, but what can really be taken from this is that people shouldn't do business with American banks. They're untrustworthy Shysters. What it's shown is the American financial sectors true devotion to good business practices, I.E. none. But hey, if Banking is done on 'trustworthiness', we can be sure of one thing, this whole sub-prime mortgage fiasco is going to harm the American banks the most in the long run, because only a fool would trade with them now...

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

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Thursday, June 12, 2008 5:56 PM

KWICKO

Also, don't forget that if Obama wins, he automatically gets a three trillion dollar "blank check" to blow on whatever he wants. Hey, it's only fair - we gave more than that to his predecessor!
With that kind of cash in hand, he could replace every single bridge in this country, completely redo the entire interstate highway system, provide universal healthcare for every citizen, AND still have enough to give a college education to every man, woman, and child in the country.

Sounds better than throwing it into a bottomless sandbox and watching it disappear...

Also, no matter who wins, you don't get to complain about taxes going up. It's pretty much a given that we're going to have to pay down that enormous deficit SOMEHOW, after all.

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence[sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

I can't help the sinking feeling that my country is now being run by people who read "1984" not as a cautionary tale, but rather as an instruction manual. - Michael Mock

The Myrmidons were an ancient nation of very brave and skilled warriors as described in Homer's Iliad, and were commanded by Achilles. - Wikipedia

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Friday, June 20, 2008 12:27 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

Stocks Fall as Credit Ills Escalate

Dow Jones gives up 220 points on worries about the financial sector and rebounding oil prices.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, June 20, 2008 1:12 PM

BIGDAMNNOBODY

I hope to see you updating this thread next week when the Dow rises and more than overcomes it's ONE DAY losses from today. Don't want anyone to think you are cherry-picking your stats now do you.

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Friday, June 20, 2008 2:04 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

On Jan 1, 2001, the DOW was at 10,788.00 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002).

To JUST keep up with inflation it would have to be at 13,196.08 today ( http://www.bls.gov/ inflation calculator).

It'll be a lotta' points (1359.39 exactly, as of today) before it can make its way out of cherry-picking range.

It's pretty obvious that I'm not talking about a ONE DAY loss, because really, it wouldn't be so bad - except that it's in addition to the already existing 1138.59 point deficit. The DOW hasn't just failed recently, it's been a continuous failure over the last 7+ years.

You know BigStupidNobody, I've put these figures and links out a half-dozen times already on various threads. If you had any interest in facts at all - which you've amply demonstrated you don't BTW - you could have simply read my posts, looked at the links, and perhaps taken the opportunity to LEARN something.

But that's beyond you.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, June 20, 2008 2:19 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

What I DIDN'T post yesterday which was linked through that horrible left-wing tool Drudge:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrb
s118.xml

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.

"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.

"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.

RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.

"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.

US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.

The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.

Morgan Stanley warns of catastrophe
More comment and analysis from the Telegraph
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.

Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.

"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.

Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, June 20, 2008 2:48 PM

BIGDAMNNOBODY

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
On Jan 1, 2001, the DOW was at 10,788.00 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_downturn_of_2002).

To JUST keep up with inflation it would have to be at 13,196.08 today ( http://www.bls.gov/ inflation calculator).

It'll be a lotta' points (1359.39 exactly, as of today) before it can make its way out of cherry-picking range.

On Dec. 20th, 2007 the Dow closed at 13 245 (above your magical 13 196). On Jan. 18th, 2008 the Dow closed at 12 099. That was a whopping 1146 point loss in about a month.
On Mar. 19th, 2008 the Dow closed at 12 099. On Apr. 18th, 2008 the Dow closed at 12 849. That was a stunning 750 point recovery in about a month.
http://money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?symb=DJIA
Aren't statistics great, you can make them say just about whatever you want them to say.

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
It's pretty obvious that I'm not talking about a ONE DAY loss, because really, it wouldn't be so bad - except that it's in addition to the already existing 1138.59 point deficit. The DOW hasn't just failed recently, it's been a continuous failure over the last 7+ years.

The Dow goes up and down. It could be at the level you think it should be in two months of heavy trading. Or it could be even lower in two months than it is now. I just never see you posting about the Dow rising or recovering from earlier losses and that, my friend, is cherry-picking your stats.

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:
You know BigStupidNobody, I've put these figures and links out a half-dozen times already on various threads. If you had any interest in facts at all - which you've amply demonstrated you don't BTW - you could have simply read my posts, looked at the links, and perhaps taken the opportunity to LEARN something.

But that's beyond you.

You are right Rue. I cannot accept your cherry-picked stats without keeping the bigger picture in mind. I know it is a failing that irks you to no end and yet I find myself completely unwilling to change it.

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Friday, June 20, 2008 3:52 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html

Look again. 1992 to 2001 - overall fantastic growth, even given the slight dip 1999 - 2001. The DOW started 1993 (Clinton) at 3301.11. To break even with inflation during his presidency it would have had to have reached 4,045.86. It reached 10,788.00. I don't know how one can cherry pick their way around such great performance. (I have no doubt you'll try though.)

OTOH, 2001 to present - worse than sideways. No cherry picking of a single day - AS YOU HAVE DONE - can erase that miserable record.

I took a 7+ year average to make my point. And you ? You can't say squat without rummaging through the trash heap of your biases.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, August 8, 2008 12:32 PM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!

I'm guessing all the pro-Bush people are silently grinding their teeth. The DOW went UP ! DAMNIT ! Somebody should give Bush credit for its GREAT PERFORMANCE.

Well, when I posted about the miserable DOW performance I was told (by people who didn't read my post or understand where I got my data from) that I was cherry-picking individual and particularly bad data.

I don't think the shrublets should cherry-pick one good day either.

For the record, the DOW closed at 11734.32

It opened 2001 at 10788.00. If it had merely kept up with inflation, it would be at 13329.06 today.

***************************************************************
"Global warming - it's not just a fact, it's a choice."

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Friday, August 8, 2008 2:10 PM

CHRISISALL

Quote:
Originally posted by rue:

For the record, the DOW closed at 11734.32

It opened 2001 at 10788.00. If it had merely kept up with inflation, it would be at 13329.06 today.

But that damn Clinton wouldn't let it...

And Carter- let's not forget his negative effect upon the Bush Administration...And that LIBERAL Soviet ass-kissing Kennedy...they all are to blame- effin' us up while Republicans were trying to save us...

...in their own way...

Chrisisall

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Sunday, August 10, 2008 6:46 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL

Quote:
Originally posted by BigDamnNobody:
I hope to see you updating this thread next week when the Dow rises and more than overcomes it's ONE DAY losses from today. Don't want anyone to think you are cherry-picking your stats now do you.

Too late.

Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Monday, August 11, 2008 3:56 AM

RAZZA

Let's take a look at the short term picture first:

Here are the figures for the Dow Jones annual close and what it should be based on inflation adjustments for 2000 to 2008 with source links:

(Dow Close Link - Close as of Dec 31st of each year)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI
(Inflation Rate Adjustment Calculator based on Dec 2000 to Dec of each year)
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Inflation_Rate_Calcu
lator.asp

year --- DOW close --- Adj Inf Rate --- inflation adjusted value for 2000 --- % Diff
_________________________________________________________
2000 --- 10373.54 ----- n/a --- 10373.54 -- n/a
2001 --- 9851.56 ------ 1.55 -- 10534.33 -- (-6.83)
2002 --- 8896.09 ------ 3.97 -- 10785.37 -- (-18.89)
2003 --- 9899.05 ------ 5.97 -- 10992.84 -- (-10.94)
2004 --- 10590.22 ----- 9.37 -- 11345.54 -- (-7.55)
2005 --- 10912.27 ----- 13.1 -- 11732.47 -- (-8.20)
2006 --- 12194.13 ----- 14.2 -- 11846.58 -- 3.48
2007 --- 13264.82 ----- 20.79 - 12530.20 -- 5.54
2008 -- *11656.07 ---- *25.76 - 13045.76 -- (-11.92)
_________________________________________________________
*Close as of Aug 11, 2008, Inf Adj Rate based on Dec 2000 to Jun 2008

In the short term, Rue is correct, this looks pretty bad, and certainly matches my own economic situation which isn't terrible, but not where I'd like to be.

Since Rue mentioned the Clinton Administration, let's take a look at the numbers during that time period. Here are the figures for the Dow Jones annual close and what it should be based on inflation adjustments for 1992 to 2000:

(Inflation Rate Adjustment Calculator based on Dec 1992 to Dec of each year)

year --- DOW close --- Adj Inf Rate --- inflation adjusted value for 1992 --- % Diff
_________________________________________________________
1992 --- 3301.11 ------ n/a --- 3301.11 -- n/a
1993 --- 3754.09 ------ 2.75 -- 3391.89 -- 9.65
1994 --- 3812.91 ------ 5.50 -- 3482.67 -- 8.66
1995 --- 5063.65 ------ 8.17 -- 3570.81 -- 29.48
1996 --- 6448.27 ------ 11.77 - 3689.65 -- 42.78
1997 --- 7908.25 ------ 13.81 - 3756.99 -- 52.49
1998 --- 9106.77 ------ 15.57 - 3815.09 -- 58.11
1999 --- 11497.12 ----- 18.60 - 3915.12 -- 65.95
2000 --- 10373.54 ----- 22.62 - 4047.82 -- 60.97
_________________________________________________________

Obviously, the economy was booming during this time period, and its reflected in these numbers!

If you combine the two sets and look at the numbers in a long term view, however, the picture isn't nearly so bleak. Here are the figures for the Dow Jones annual close and what it should be based on inflation adjustments for 1992 to 2008:

(Inflation Rate Adjustment Calculator based on Dec 1992 to Dec of each year)

year --- DOW close --- Adj Inf Rate --- inflation adjusted value for 1992 --- % Diff
_________________________________________________________
1992 --- 3301.11 ------ n/a --- 3301.11 -- n/a
1993 --- 3754.09 ------ 2.75 -- 3391.89 -- 9.65
1994 --- 3812.91 ------ 5.50 -- 3482.67 -- 8.66
1995 --- 5063.65 ------ 8.17 -- 3570.81 -- 29.48
1996 --- 6448.27 ------ 11.77 - 3689.65 -- 42.78
1997 --- 7908.25 ------ 13.81 - 3756.99 -- 52.49
1998 --- 9106.77 ------ 15.57 - 3815.09 -- 58.11
1999 --- 11497.12 ----- 18.60 - 3915.12 -- 65.95
2000 --- 10373.54 ----- 22.62 - 4047.82 -- 60.97
2001 --- 9851.56 ------ 24.52 - 4110.54 -- 58.28
2002 --- 8896.09 ------ 27.48 - 4208.26 -- 52.70
2003 --- 9899.05 ------ 29.88 - 4287.48 -- 56.69
2004 --- 10590.22 ----- 34.11 - 4427.12 -- 58.20
2005 --- 10912.27 ----- 38.69 - 4578.31 -- 58.04
2006 --- 12194.13 ----- 42.21 - 4694.51 -- 61.50
2007 --- 13264.82 ----- 48.02 - 4886.30 -- 63.16
2008 -- *11656.07 ----- 54.20 - 5090.31 -- 56.33
_________________________________________________________
*Close as of Aug 11, 2008, Inf Adj Rate based on Dec 1992 to Jun 2008

What does all this mean? It means that when you are dealing with the economy, you need to have perspective, and that means looking at both short term and long term views, and not excluding either from the discussion. In the short term, our economy is just not doing as well as it should and there is no denying it. There are a lot of factors effecting that, and I don't have time to go over all of them. In the long term, things don't look that bad, but with the short memories of most american's today, and even shorter attention spans, it won't be easy to convince most folks of that fact.

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Monday, August 11, 2008 3:57 AM

FREMDFIRMA

Stuff like this makes me very satisfied that I don't have the bulk of my assets in untrustworthy fiat money backed by policies of usury and speculation.

-F

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Monday, August 11, 2008 4:03 AM

CHRISISALL

Thanks for the positive view, Raz. Hey- even gas prices have come down some!
*re-thinks his negativity*

Nah- the sky's still gonna fall, just later than I thought is all.

Chrisisall

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Monday, August 11, 2008 11:55 AM

OUT2THEBLACK

Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Stuff like this makes me very satisfied that I don't have the bulk of my assets in untrustworthy fiat money backed by policies of usury and speculation.

-F

Seconded .

The stats are just more illusory , partisan propoganda telling everyone exactly what they personally feel like hearing...

Sorry for those who put stock in such a faulty economy...The rosy glasses vary according to the inclinations of each wearer...

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