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As you're being inundated with wall-to-wall coverage of the Iowa caucuses this week, keep the following number in mind: zero.

The quest for the GOP's presidential nomination is ultimately a race for delegates. With 2,286 delegates attending the party's national convention in Tampa at the end of August, the backing of slightly over half of that group -- 1,144 -- will be needed for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, or someone else to capture the prize.

Guess how many of these delegates will be selected in Iowa on January 3. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

Iowa matters for one reason only: the media says so. It's been deemed the first "real" contest on the presidential nominating calendar, and for some reason "first" warrants wall-to-wall coverage. The winner -- or perceived winner -- is almost certain to get a campaign cash boost and ride a tidal wave of media-fueled momentum.
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Want to know what really happens in Iowa in January? Not much. A few thousand people who care enough about politics to spend an evening at their local library or church basement will decide who gets to attend the state GOP's county conventions in March.

They'll also participate in a non-binding presidential preference vote. ("Non-binding" means the state's national convention delegates do not have to vote according to the preferences of caucus participants.)

And that's about it.

In March, the county convention delegates will decide who attends a bunch of congressional district meetings and a statewide convention in late April and June. That's when most of Iowa's 28 national convention delegates — a bit over 1% of the total number of delegates in Tampa — will actually be chosen. If there's already a likely nominee by that point, you can bet Iowa won't rock the boat.

Remember Mike Huckabee's big win in the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses? The party's eventual nominee, John McCain, won all of Iowa's delegate votes at the national convention.

The history of the Iowa caucuses is actually a case study in the power of the media to shape -- or warp, depending on your point of view -- the nomination contest.

"The name of the presidential nominating game is perception, and the reality of the Iowa precinct caucuses has long been replaced by the media perception," writes Drake University Professor Hugh Winebrenner. "It is not the caucus event per se but the media report of the event that shapes the presidential selection process." http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/28/politics/iowa-caucuses-media/index.html?
hpt=hp_bn3

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People who do not perform well in early contests will be largely ignored in later contests.

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I wish that all contests were simultaneous to eliminate the 'momentum effect' of cumulative (otherwise valueless) victories.

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