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"There's lots of evidence to suggest that people needing serious medical care are most likely to purchase insurance initially. Those who don't have urgent medical needs are more likely to purchase insurance later."

What's more, age is only a piece of the puzzle. Since those applying for insurance no longer disclose anything about their health, Zirkelbach says insurers won't have a good sense of their medical needs -- and what it will cost to cover them -- until well into 2014.

"There is essentially no risk of a 'death spiral,'" says MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, who helped design the ACA as well as the Massachusetts law on which it was modeled. "There are substantial risk mitigation mechanisms as well as subsidies that will attract in healthy enrollees." Most important, say Gruber and Zirkelbach, is a section of the ACA under which the federal government will pick up a substantial portion of the losses for the next three years, if the program goes sour for insurers.

Gruber warns that that the early data are ripe for over-interpretation. While fewer young and healthy customers would mean higher premiums, "it's hard to say how big a difference 28% vs. 38% makes -- we just don't know."

Most experts expect the pace of enrollment to accelerate, as the HealthCare.gov website starts to function better and potential customers have more of a chance to explore their options. http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/19/politics/obamacare-enrollment-update/]

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