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Many Americans may be freezing now, but the data shows January hasn't been that frigid

January 2014 will go down as the month we all learned about the polar vortex (even if meteorologists have known about it for decades). It’s the month when it got so cold that Minnesota closed all schools for the first time since 1997, when much of the Midwest was more frigid than the North Pole, when even Tampa experienced temperatures below freezing. As I write, much of the eastern half of the country is suffering through another bitter cold snap—not caused by the vortex, FYI—one that has blanked the East Coast in heavy snow. Winter, in short, has felt miserable.

But here’s the surprise: on a historical and national level, it hasn’t actually been all that cold.

Jan. 2014: Average High; Historical Average High
New York: 38 F (3.3 C; 36 F (2.2 C)
Los Angeles: 76 F (24.4 C); 68 F (20 C)
Chicago: 27 F (-2.7 C); 32 F (0 C)
Houston: 64 F (17.8 C); 63 F (17.2 C)
Philadelphia: 40 F (4.4 C); 41 F (5 C)
Phoenix: 73 F (22. 8 C); 67 F (19.4 C)
San Antonio: 66 F (18.9 C); 63 F (17.2 C)
San Diego: 72 F (22.2 C); 65 F (18.3 C)
Dallas: 58 F (14.4 C); 57 F (13.9 C)
San Jose: 66 F (18.9 C); 58 F (14.4 C)

What do we learn from this? Well for one thing, there’s an East Coast bias in news coverage, at least of the weather. But while it truly has been historically cold on average for much of the Midwest, for most of the rest of the country the average temperatures have been around normal, or even a little above. And the West Coast is experiencing an unusually hot winter (one that has compounded the record drought in California). Average high temperatures have been further above normal in Los Angeles and San Jose than they’ve been below average in Chicago. Anchorage has been positively balmy—by Alaskan standards—with average daily highs that are 11 F (6.1 C) greater than the historical average for January.

So why has this month felt so unusually cold for so many Americans? Probably because it has been — at least compared to recent history. An Associated Press analysis found that from 1900 on, cold extremes happened about once every four years. But when the average temperature in the U.S. dropped below 18 F on Jan. 6, it was the first time the country had been that cold on average in 17 years. And that day was only the 55th coldest day in recorded U.S. history, much warmer than the 12 F average recorded on Christmas Eve 1983.

The climate has been changing, but so have we, adjusting to what you might call a new normal. It’s an example of “shifting baselines,” a term first coined by the fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly ( http://science.time.com/2013/08/01/shifting-baselines-why-the-environm
ent-is-even-worse-off-than-you-think/). Once a New York City January when high temperatures were 38 F on average would have seemed on the warmish side. But as the climate has changed—and it has, with winters in New York State more than 1 F warmer on average now than in 1970 ( http://www.climatecentral.org/news/winters-are-warming-all-across-the-
us-15590) — so have our perceptions of what’s normal. So when we get a winter that would have been pretty average four decades ago, it feels like a deep freeze.

And who knows, by 2100—when average temperatures in the U.S. might be as much as 11 F higher if nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions—our descendants might even get a freak January in New York when average temperatures actually fall below 40 F. And they’ll call it a cold snap. http://science.time.com/2014/01/22/average-temperatures-in-january-war
m-despite-cold/#ixzz2rFL9ejNK

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“Bottom line,” says WSB meteorologist Kirk Mellish. “This isn’t quite as cold as the first visit from the polar vortex, but it’s lasting much longer.”

Mellish says this is the longest stretch of bitter cold weather that we’ve seen in about three years. And it’s only going to get colder before it gets better .

http://www.wsbradio.com/news/news/coldest-weather-still-come-arctic-bl
ast/ncyc8/

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Originally posted by Niki2:

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Originally posted by AURaptor:
Friday Jan. 24

Current temperature

9 degrees.

( So, even if the wind chill makes it FEEL like it's below zero, it's not as cold as you think, right ? )

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It happened to Europe last year. A persistent erosion of Arctic sea ice

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set off changes to the polar jet stream

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that locked in place a severe winter weather pattern that pummeled the central and western European countries for much of the winter. Storm after storm piled snow high in locations that typically saw only modest winter precipitation while other areas were simply buried. The US also took a glancing blow from this extreme storm configuration.

But now, with a large trough in the polar Jet remaining locked in place for almost a year, the US from the Rockies eastward appears to be in the line of fire for some very severe winter weather.

In other regions from Alaska to Eastern Europe, record or near record warmth and dryness have settled in with a large swath of eastern Europe showing average temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average. Over the extreme northern Pacific, adjacent to Alaska and the Bering Sea, seasonal temperature range from 4-12 degrees Celsius above average.

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And it is this extreme northward invasion of warm air that is displacing polar and Arctic air masses toward the east and south, putting much of the US in the firing line for strange and severe winter weather.

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A Tale of Jet Streams and Melting Sea Ice

To understand how human caused global warming can make winter storms more severe in some areas while other areas hardly experience winter at all, one should first take a look at two major governors of Northern Hemisphere weather: the circumpolar Jet Stream and Arctic sea ice.

An extreme difference between the temperatures at high northern latitudes and at more temperate latitudes has driven a very rapid flow of upper level air called the Jet Stream for almost all of human meteorological reckoning. This high temperature difference drove powerful upper level winds from west to east. These winds tended to modulate only slightly and when they did, powerful weather events tended to occur.

Locking a greater portion of this cold air in place was the northern hemisphere ice cap, most of which was composed of a large swath of sea ice covering much of the northern oceans. This high volume of cold, reflective ice kept temperatures up north very, very low

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... But since 1979, massive volumes of sea ice have been lost... Sea ice retreat has been equally unprecedented with average winter values now 15-20% below extent measures seen during 1979 and with end summer sea ice extent values now a stunning 35-50% below that of 1979. Sea ice volume, the measure of total ice including its thickness, has shown even more stunning losses since 1979 with seasonal winter values 30-35% lower than in 1979 and end summer values between 65 and 80% lower during recent years.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Which Geezer refuses to acknowledge

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All I refuse to acknowledge is that it hasn't been as cold as I think

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Originally posted by Niki2:
-- Blatant lie. The cite link is right there at the end of the article:

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Originally posted by Geezer:

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Originally posted by Niki2:
-- Blatant lie. The cite link is right there at the end of the article:

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Okay. Sorry. It was inside the quotes, so I thought it was just another cite in the story.




"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

For jonggsie...

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