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get ready for another sh*t storm of Russian Trolling! "Ukraine was the first to break the cease fire!" and endless variations.

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Lizan outlines Poroshenko’s quandary quite well, but in fact the situation is even worse for him.

For starters, Poroshenko clearly expected that the Minsk meeting would consist of The Leaders of the Free World (Poroshenko included) bringing “Putler’s aggression” to heel.

Instead it turned out to be Vlad and Friends putting the hurt on Poroshenko. From just observing the facial expressions and the body language, it was clear that he was on the receiving end of some serious pressure. Lavrov's comment that the negotiations were going "better than super" was an early indication that Poroshenko walked into an ambush. What was the ambush intended to accomplish?

It would appear that Vlad’s Friends want Poroshenko to deal firmly with the Party of War in Kiev. It must have dawned on Merkel and Hollande (though the latter probably suspected this already) that the Kiev junta’s survival plan consists solely of hoping to provoke a large-scale conflict with Russia that would trigger a new Cold War on the European continent, and result in Ukraine being an “advanced forpost of the Western civilization”, an Israel of Eastern Europe of sorts, which in turn would mean billions and billions of dollars of economic and military aid. And the junta has no other plan. It never had any other plan. Its objective from the start was to provoke Russia (starting with “FSB snipers on the Maidan” and the moves to transfer the Sevastopol naval base to the US Navy) into doing something.

Well, they succeeded. Russia “did something” [supply the DPR-LPR- SIGNY]. It was only then that they discovered their miscalculation — the West does not have billions laying around to spend on kleptocratic Ukrainians with delusions of grandeur. Undaunted, they continued to escalate the situation, until the Europeans finally decided to step in, lest a full-scale great power war erupt on the European continent. First they apparently successfully convinced the Biden administration to kindly butt out by categorically ruling out deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. Then they pulled the plug on Kiev.

Poroshenko’s “mission impossible,” as it was evidently communicated to him by Hollande and Merkel, is to rein in the “war party” [Turchinov, Yarosh etc- SIGNY] in Kiev by any means possible and then get on with destroying, excuse me, reforming the Ukrainian economy, Greece-style. It’s no longer self-evident that any violation of the ceasefire will be automatically blamed on Novorossia or Russia, as it was in the past. It is totally self-evident that no IMF credits will be forthcoming unless Poroshenko finally starts acting in a responsible manner. Moreover, considering what conditions are invariably attached to IMF credits, Ukraine’s ability to wage war will likely quickly decline due to the draconian budget cuts. Whatever Yatsenyuk had planned for this year will likely be significantly reduced if Yaresko is to convince Western donors Ukraine is serious about cutting government spending, and at the moment defense is where most of the money is.

So yes, by all means, try to put yourself into Poroshenko’s shoes at this point. His best chance is to convince the “war party” that their best chance is to help him stay in power. This line of argument has the benefit of having considerable merit to it, because should the Right Sector/Turchinov/whoever topple Poroshenko, would the new junta count on any support from the West?

Probably not, but do Yarosh and Turchinov realize it? The assumption Poroshenko and other sponsors of the Maidan made in unleashing the neo-Nazis on Ukraine’s political scene was that billions of dollars of Western aid would improve the situation in the country to such an extent that these movements would be starved of popular support. Instead, due to the deteriorating situation and the two lost military campaigns, they are gaining in strength, and their main enemy no longer is located in Donbass.

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It's almost like they have help or something.

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In other words, a Russian Invasion in all but name.

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Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said martial law will be introduced throughout Ukraine if the cease-fire fails to start at midnight tonight, as agreed in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb. 12.

“Even before Minsk... I warned that we will have to, if there is no peace, take a very difficult but necessary decision to introduce martial law," Poroshenko said today. “I stress once again that in this case the martial law will be introduced not just in Donetsk and Luhansk, but in the whole country."

Introduction of martial law means that Ukraine's army gets to control the streets and impose curfews, ban parties and other organizations, as well as mass gatherings, conduct searches and introduce censorship. It's also allowed to claim property of businesses and private individual if needed.

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