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Early estimates from a range of Iraqi parties on Monday predicted a coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would take the lead in the parliamentary election, though official results were not expected for a few days.

A win by al-Maliki could signal Iraqis' rejection of the religious parties that have dominated the country since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The prime minister has been trying to distance himself from his party's religious roots and portray himself as more of a nationalist.

Sunday's voting was the latest test of Iraq's fragile democracy and will determine whether the country can overcome the deep sectarian divides that have plagued it for the past seven years.

Turnout for Iraq's second election for a full parliamentary term was 62 percent of about 19 million eligible voters, the election commission said. That is lower than the last full parliamentary election in December 2005, in which roughly 76 percent of eligible voters turned out.

Officials attributed the drop to a combination of voter intimidation, more stringent ID requirements at the polls and a drop in voter excitement. A spate of attacks on election day - some directly on voters and polling stations - killed 36 people.

The election commission said at a news conference that initial results for some provinces as well Baghdad - an area key to determining any winner - will be announced Tuesday. But full results are not expected for a few more days.

But officials of the various parties were present during regional vote counts after the polls closed Sunday, giving them a sense of where the race is heading.

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Iraqis turned out in high numbers for the March 7 parliamentary elections. The post-election period of alliance formation, expected to last several months, will be crucial in determining whether the country moves toward consolidating a stable democracy, or slides back into ethnic turmoil. Iraq suffers from dramatic political fragmentation, and the elections saw competition between secular and religious parties, alliances of various sizes, and independent candidates, with 306 political entities registered to run for only 325 seats in the Council of Representatives.

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With ballots still being counted, officials from both the State of Law coalition led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the rival Iraqiya claimed to be leading. Iraqiya is a secular alliance led by Shiite former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, but it also contains many Sunnis.

But no one party appeared to have an overwhelming majority, meaning that the winner will have to build a coalition government. Finding political partners may be a tough task for al-Maliki, a man who has created many political enemies during his nearly four years in office.

Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, said if al-Maliki were to come out ahead, he would be hard-pressed to build a coalition.

"Al-Maliki still needs to build up a large coalition, which will take a long time. He will have to make a lot of deals," he said. "But I doubt that as a result he will remain as prime minister. Most of the people he has to deal with don't want him."

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