Quote:

---

-- Obamacare remains a political albatross for Democrats, but a government shutdown has proven to be more toxic to voters. Unlike previous trends, Independents look more like Democrats than Republicans when it comes to partially shutting down the government in order to right the wrongs of Obamacare. Three-quarters of Independents join 86 percent of Democrats in disapproving of this action, according to a CBS News survey. More noteworthy, Republicans are split: 48 percent approval to 49 percent disapproval.

By 59 to 38 percent, even those who oppose Obamacare believe a partial government shutdown is not the way to go. A government shutdown divides Republicans and flips the anti-Obamacare coalition, which is why the shutdown stopped revolving around the health care law several days ago.

-- The plan of using a government shutdown to spark a national discussion on Obamacare fell flat. Prior to October 1, it was reasonable to believe that a partial government shutdown would dominate public attention and hinder efforts to force an Obamacare showdown. Now there’s evidence supporting that claim.

According to Pew Research, during week 1 nearly three-quarters of Americans followed news about the government shutdown either very closely (43 percent) or fairly closely (30 percent). Compared to other national debates since 2009, only coverage of President Obama’s economic stimulus, his first budget submission to Congress, and the 2010 Obamacare debate received greater attention than the shutdown.

While still a majority, fewer Americans saw news about the turbulent opening days of the health care exchanges. Yet these developments were lost on 4 in 10 Americans. Unfortunately, instead of shinning a spotlight on these problems, this story was overrun by debate over which parts of the government to fund.

-- Women are following the government shutdown more closely than men, and that should be concerning for Republicans. In recent presidential and midterm elections, women voted in greater numbers than men by 4 to 5 points, and Republican challenges in improving their standing among moderate women have been well documented.

According to a Fox News poll, women are more likely than men to view the government shutdown as a very serious problem. By a similar margin, women are also more likely than men to view the government shutdown as definitely a bad thing.

-- The Blame Game. We entered the government shutdown certain of one thing: there will be no shortage of blame to go around. Above 50 percent in January, President Obama’s job approval now registers in the low-to-mid 40’s*, and voters are increasingly pessimistic about the direction of the country.

The complicating factor for Republicans is that they’re viewed less favorably than Democrats, so more voters perceive them as culpable. Voters are more likely to blame Republican leaders than President Obama or congressional Democrats by 8 to 13 points, according to several polls.

These margins are consistent with opinions of swing voters. Independents are more likely to fault Republicans (40 percent) than Obama/Democrats (30 percent), per CBS News. That’s in line with the Fox News poll: Republicans (40 percent), Obama/Democrats (27 percent), and both (32 percent).

Moreover, majorities of Independents disapprove of how all parties are handling the fiscal stalemate, but once again more blame falls on Republicans.

While this is not your 90’s shutdown, it is not an enviable position for Republicans either. If Republicans can put the shutdown dysfunction in their rear view mirror, they can move to a more favorable playing field. http://resurgentrepublic.com/posts/polling-trends-on-the-government-sh
utdown

---

Quote:

---

Just 5% said they support the decisions being made by government leaders, while a whopping 83% disapprove, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll ( http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20October%202013%20Poll%20To
pline%20Final_POLITICS.pdf) released Wednesday.

A mere 10% of the public reportedly approved of Congress hours before the shutdown began last week. The rate was the smallest percent in history that favored Congress, as of Oct. 1.

Sixty-two percent of the public believes Republicans are “almost all/a lot” to blame for the current government shutdown. President Obama and Democrats both received 49% of the criticism. Other findings included a 45 percent job-approval rating for Obama.

Republicans again earned a 17%-approval rating from Americans, the same number from the Quinnipiac University poll ( http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/nat
ional/release-detail?ReleaseID=1958) conducted last week. Seventy percent of the public disapproves of the party now. That has ticked down two points from the August Quinnipiac results.

Democrats didn’t avoid disappointment from people, either, but their approval rating stood at 32%, up one point from the August poll.

Earlier this year in June Americans ranked 16 other institutions–including banks, television news, police, and churches–higher than their level of confidence in Congress, which also dropped to 10% then. The rating was the lowest level not only for Congress, but for any institution on record–-ever.

The country is almost split down the middle in its regard for President Obama’s handling of his job: 51% agreed that he has the leadership and personality expected of a president, whereas 48% disagreed with the statement. http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/10/01/new-low-congress-gop-popularity-tanks-a
mid-shutdown/]

---

Quote:

---

The silver lining Republicans spotted in some pre-shutdown polls was that Americans seemed poised to take their anger out on both parties, or the more generic “Washington.”

Nope. President Obama’s approval rating is up slightly in the WSJ/NBC poll to 47-48 versus 45-50 last month. Democrats now lead Republicans on a generic Congressional ballot 47-39, a five point bump in the same period.

But the number that’s truly apocalyptic for Republicans is respondents’ views of the Affordable Care Act. The law is actually gaining support in the latest poll: 38% of respondents now say the law is a good idea versus 43% who say it’s a bad idea, a major bump from the 31-44 margin it polled last month and its best result in over a year. The surge in support comes despite a glitch-filled rollout of the law’s exchanges that’s proving a publicity problem for the White House.

The entire animating principle behind Senator Ted Cruz’s pre-shutdown strategy was that a confrontation over funding the law would shine a spotlight on its weaknesses, leading Americans to rally to the GOP’s side. Instead it looks as if the GOP’s unpopularity is producing a rally effect in support of the ACA. It’s an utterly bonkers result that undercuts the most basic conservative assumptions about the shutdown. http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/10/10/gop-plummets-obamacare-soars-in-shutdow
n-standoff/]

---

Quote:

---

Ted Cruz Poll: GOP Gaining Ground From Obamacare Fight

Sen. Ted Cruz told fellow conservatives Wednesday that the polling news isn't all bad for Republicans: his own survey found the contentious Obamacare defunding fight bolstered the party's political position, the Washington Examiner reported.

Republicans who attended the closed-door lunch Wednesday hosted by Senate conservatives told the Examiner that Cruz presented the poll he paid for — and pollster Chris Perkins of Republican polling firm Wilson Perkins Allen was there to explain the numbers.

The survey’s findings paralleled other national polls, the newspaper said: more voters blame the Republicans for the government shutdown than blame President Barack Obama or the Democrats.

Only 28 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, a Gallup poll showed Wednesday.

But Cruz argued that because the shutdown resulted from a disagreement over Obamacare, not spending in general, Republicans are in a better position now than they were during the last government shutdown in 1995-96, the Examiner reported.

Cruz's poll found 46 percent blame the 2013 shutdown on Republicans, while 51 percent blamed the 1995 shutdown on Republicans, according to the Examiner.

Other findings included a 45 percent job-approval rating for Obama and a 52 percent disapproval rating, while 67 percent said Obamacare was the "major reason" for the government shutdown.

Cruz was hammered last week for pushing Republicans into a politically risky shutdown without a strategy to win the standoff.

The Wilson Perkins Allen poll was conducted last week and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/ted-cruz-poll-gop-obamacare/2013/10/09
/id/530249]

---

Quote:

---

Republicans who attended the weekly lunch hosted by Senate conservatives confirmed that Cruz presented a poll that the Texan paid for. Cruz’ pollster, Chris Perkins, was there for a portion of the discussion to help walk members through the poll and discuss the party's messaging strategy. Perkins is a partner with Wilson Perkins Allen, a GOP polling firm with dozens of Republican clients.

The survey’s findings mirrored other national polls: More voters blame the Republicans for the government shutdown than blame President Obama or the Democrats. But Cruz argued, based on the poll, that Republicans are in a much better position than they were during the 1995 shutdown because this impasse is defined by a disagreement over funding for the Affordable Care Act as opposed to a general disagreement over government spending.

A copy of Cruz’ poll was obtained by the Washington Examiner. The national survey of 815 likely voters was conducted last week immediately after the government shut down. It had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. http://washingtonexaminer.com/ted-cruz-poll-shows-gop-gained-in-fight-
over-obamacare-despite-shutdown/article/2537066

---