Is Elon Musk Nuts? by SIGNYM

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Is Elon Musk Nuts?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 26, 2024 11:22
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Tuesday, March 28, 2017 10:17 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Sure, the guy made a crap-ton of money with Pay Pal, which (IMHO was more about being in the right place at the right time) but everything else he founded turned to shit:

SpaceX- A tail-fin-landing rocket. I believe I laughed my ass off over that already.

Tesla- the self-immolating cars. If it wasn't for government subsidies, he would be losing money. His next generation of cars, which people have already deposited cold hard $1000 cash to reserve, is well behind schedule and needs another infusion of cash.

Solar City- Another government-funded money-loser.

Hmmm... flights to Mars. The Hyperloop. The Musk Electric Jet.

It seems his excessive wealth has caused him to believe that he can do anything. But he doesn't grasp large-energy projects, when a simple back-of-the envelope calculation would tell him where it will go wrong.

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Tuesday, March 28, 2017 11:59 AM

I'm actually a fan of the Tesla and I think the negative press out there is generated by Big Oil and Big Auto. If they can address certain safety concerns and put a governor on the cars that would keep them from being able to accelerate so fast, I believe that the Tesla will be the answer to oil independence from the Middle East and will be a large step towards curbing the average carbon footprint.

I'm not really knowledgeable about the rest of that stuff so I don't have much of an opinion other than to say that up-front costs for new tech are huge and somebody has to do it. I think Elon's doing greater work for mankind with his money than most obscenely rich people could ever do with their charitable donations.

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Tuesday, March 28, 2017 12:04 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

The problem is still the batteries. Its' very difficult (impossible so far) to get the same energy density into a battery as gasoline packs, and after about 5-7 years the batteries break down. Hybrids are kind of a problem- since they use both gasoline and electricity to turn the wheels they need a complex dual-transmission to power the wheels. The interim answer might be to pack a small generator into a vehicle, which can be tuned to run extremely efficiently. That way you don't need a huge battery to store a lot of energy. Then use the standard electric motor to turn the wheels.

I'm more positive about solar cells, which just recently broke the energy barrier (generating slightly more energy than it takes to make them) because they are stationary applications that don't need a lot of portable energy density.

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR IS A DEEP-STATE TROLL

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Tuesday, March 28, 2017 1:37 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Maybe you should buy some of his stocks?

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR IS A DEEP-STATE TROLL

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Tuesday, March 28, 2017 3:43 PM

I'm looking forward to owning my first used Tesla 20 years from now.

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Tuesday, March 28, 2017 4:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6STRINGJOKER:
I'm actually a fan of the Tesla and I think the negative press out there is generated by Big Oil and Big Auto. If they can address certain safety concerns and put a governor on the cars that would keep them from being able to accelerate so fast, I believe that the Tesla will be the answer to oil independence from the Middle East and will be a large step towards curbing the average carbon footprint.

I'm not really knowledgeable about the rest of that stuff so I don't have much of an opinion other than to say that up-front costs for new tech are huge and somebody has to do it. I think Elon's doing greater work for mankind with his money than most obscenely rich people could ever do with their charitable donations.

All of this, what 6 said.

I'll only add that I disagree with Musk on politics because a lot of South Africans seem to have this liberal utopianism that was common here maybe 20s to the 60s. But other than that, I'm with Elon. I know he's working with Trump onthe Mars plan, which is a great plan, and I don't think there's really been the falling out that the media claims on that front. If it came down to a choice between two of them, Obviously I'll side with Musk.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017 10:34 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Now he wants to create a direct brain-computer link.

I think they guy has a bunch of great ideas (This is not one of them) but has a hard time getting them to meet reality. Most of his projects suck off the government teat.

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017 2:22 PM

When it comes to linking brains directly to computers I'll hope that is one of his ideas that never.... take off.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017 4:27 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Speaking of the Mars trip - I hope people realize it'll be the last trip of their lives. The cosmic rays will get them.

Originally posted by G:
"I coined the slogan "We Suck!"© many years ago."
G is an avowed Putin-loving, pro-Russian, anti-American troll.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017 4:58 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6stringJoker:
When it comes to linking brains directly to computers I'll hope that is one of his ideas that never.... take off.

Computers are funny things. And their role in our lives is a double-edged sword.

No matter how they try to build them, computers simply can't replicate the function and 'logical' structure of the human brain. Trying to mesh up a brain with a computer would be tenuous, and risky. There just aren't many places where they can compatibly link together (unless you're talking about very limited functions like moving a limb, in which case BOTH the brain AND the computer have to learn to translate the commands into a mutually understandable but non-native language).

In general, the human brain is not a logic processing structure. Its inputs include the vast subterranean biological functions below awareness, the automatic pathways that select for biological meaning in the environment, the effect of highly filtered memory and further imperfect information storage over time, evolutionary pointed behaviors, plus the shortcuts (heuristics) used to get to a good enough biologically-focused conclusion quickly.

Unless they're hit by cosmic rays, suffer thermal-driven diffusion over time, or get scrambled by a power glitch, computers are good at storing exact information, and repeating the exact same process an infinite number of times. They don't feel, or care, or focus, or put valuation on any one thing compared to a different thing. They don't deal with impressions or general milieu.

There are very few points of comparison between wetware and hardware, therefore, very few points of contact.

And speaking of computers and AI - while it might be a time and money saver to have computers reproduce what people already do - like calculations, traffic control, and the like (and assuming the whole hacking problem has been eliminated) - there's a reason to not expand AI into realms beyond human capability. And that's because we'll be incapable of comprehending what they'll be doing. Being unable to comprehend it means we are putting ourselves in the power of an alien system.

Care to try addressing the facts, again?

Or do you shoot nothing but blanks?

Originally posted by G:
"I coined the slogan "We Suck!"© many years ago."
G is an avowed Putin-loving, pro-Russian, anti-American troll.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017 6:26 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
And speaking of computers and AI - while it might be a time and money saver to have computers reproduce what people already do - like calculations, traffic control, and the like (and assuming the whole hacking problem has been eliminated) - there's a reason to not expand AI into realms beyond human capability. And that's because we'll be incapable of comprehending what they'll be doing. Being unable to comprehend it means we are putting ourselves in the power of an alien system.

I never thought of that before, but it's very true.

Compatibility will be a thing of the future though. We shouldn't do it, but we will. It may seem like an impossible puzzle to figure out with our limited understanding today, but anything is possible, and we've already shown many times that any questions of "but should we do it" will not be asked or they will be ignored.

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Monday, May 1, 2017 12:43 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

So, just to get back to the energetics of electric vehicles ...

I read an article that claims electric vehicles are only 5-10% efficient in terms of energy to motion. (well to wheel) that seemed really low to me, so I decided to backtrack the calculations ...

Power plants have different efficiencies (min-max)
COAL FIRED PLANT 32 42
GAS FIRED 32 38
HYDRO 85 90
WIND 35 45
(Latest gas-fired turbines have attained 60% efficiency, but those aren't installed yet, just experimental.)
http://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/72369-compare-the-eff
iciency-of-different-power-plants/

Electric energy transmission efficiency varies from state to state (min-max)
87 98
http://insideenergy.org/2015/11/06/lost-in-transmission-how-much-elect
ricity-disappears-between-a-power-plant-and-your-plug/

The charger itself is only 90-94 efficient

Battery charging also wastes heat, the battery is about 68-90 efficient
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/sun1/

And the car inverter (DC to AC) efficiency and motor efficiency aren't 100% either: 70 average

All together, when you multiply the efficiencies of power generation with the other efficiencies, you get a range .... from a high of 52% (assuming max hydro power and max xmission/ automobile efficiency) to a low of 12% (assuming lowest coal/gas -fired power generation efficiency and lowest xmission and auto efficiency.)

Not counting hydro, which only accounts for 6% electric generation in the USA and is kind of an outlier, electric vehicles range from 12-24% .

-----------

For automobiles, the efficiency of an internal combustion engine could be as high as 37%, but currently averages around 18-24%. About 10% is lost to idle (depending on traffic) and about 10% lost to the power train leading to an overall gasoline vehicle efficiency of 14-16%. Latest improvements in power trains (constant variable transmission which improves engine efficiency by maintaining a constant RPM) have improved gasoline engine efficiency but I don't have the latest figures. Diesel engines are significantly more efficient.

So overall, gasoline vehicles are about in the same realm of efficiency (14-16) as electric vehicles (12-24), diesel engines are even better than gasoline engines.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

I assumed the well/ mine to tank efficiencies are about the same for gasoline cars as for power generation.

IF the power is generated with nat gas, less CO2 is emitted than by burning a more carbon-dense fuel like gasoline, but given the higher diesel engine efficiency diesel emissions (CO2 per mile) is actually lower than gasoline.

------

So overall it's a complex question whether electric vehicles are more energy-efficient or produce less CO2 per mile than gasoline or diesel because so much depends on the fuel used to generate electricity and relative vehicle efficiencies. In addition, electric vehicles require rare earth metals which are mined energy-intensively. (It's a little like solar cells ... they just recently broke the barrier where they generate more electricity than is required to make them.) The potential is there, but it's not a slam-dunk improvement in all cases.

The REAL improvements would occur if we managed to (1) reduce our population and (2) reduce other energy expenditures ... such as not making war in foreign lands which require a lot of non-productive fuel-burning and manufacturing and (3) improved our land-use planning so people wouldn't have to drive so much.

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.

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Monday, May 1, 2017 2:46 PM

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

The other drawbacks to electric vehicles are lack of infrastructure, and charging time.

My ideal vehicle is an ethanol-fueled Minnesota-reformer fuel-cell direct electric drive vehicle (where the motors are directly attached to the wheels - ie, no transmission or axles). Unfortunately, there aren't any stats for that.

For example, the stats I read for ethanol production from corn indicated a lot of inputs in terms of fuel for equipment, herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fertilizers, and irrigation. But when I wrote to the researchers asking if those figures were derived from FOOD GRADE corn growing, I got no reply. Food grade corn has to be perfect and so requires all of those inputs. But fuel corn would probably not need so much input. Who cares if it's got a little weevil in it, or the ears are misshapen, or even if it's moldy?

And then there are even better fuel sources other than corn, such as switch-grass, which have an even greater energy supply and even lower inputs than (fuel-grade) corn.

The advantage to that fuel-sourced vehicle is that it adds no carbon to the atmosphere from fossil fuels underground.

And such a vehicle wouldn't need to be a private car. It could be used in trains, trucks, trolleys, buses etc.

Why such a vehicle hasn't been invented is beyond me. All the 'parts' are already there - the reformer, the fuel cell, the direct electric-drive motors.

Originally posted by G:
"I coined the slogan "We Suck!"© many years ago."
G is an avowed Putin-loving, pro-Russian, anti-American troll.

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Wednesday, July 5, 2017 10:45 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Musk spins out "ideas" that sometimes don't pencil out (like his tail-fin-landing rocket) and his "business model" requires indefinite infusions of government money.

It's not that the idea of electric vehicles is fundamentally flawed, because in some cases it can improve our carbon footprint. But I was pointing out to some folks at work who ponied up $1000 for Tesla's not-even-fully-designed electric vehicle that making 500,000 vehicles requires setting up factories and supply-chains, none of which were remotely in place. Even his shareholders are rebelling.

Tesla Price Target Cut To $180 At Goldman; Warns Of "Demand Plateau" For Model S/X

More factory problems as Elon Musk's Tesla starts producing the Model 3
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-model3-announceme
nt-20170703-story.html

Tesla’s Second-Quarter Sales Hit by Production Shortfall
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-details-model-3-produ
ction-ramp-1499097398

Tesla delivered 47,000 vehicles so far this year, barely meeting its goal
https://www.recode.net/2017/7/3/15916730/tesla-delivery-goals-second-q
uarter-2017

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.
I'll accept your apology any time, THUGR. But I know you're not man enough to give me one

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Wednesday, July 5, 2017 4:57 PM

The average human being expells 839.5 lbs of carbon dioxide per year. That's just breathing to live.

Everybody's largest addition to their carbon footprint, no matter their social or economic level is their children.

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Thursday, July 20, 2017 9:38 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Government "Flabbergasted" After Elon Musk's Most Bizarre Claim Yet

Elon Musk set the interwebs ablaze this morning when he tweeted out that he somehow got every major city on the eastern seaboard to "verbally approve" a "NY-Phil-Balt-DC Hyperloop" to be built by his Boring Company.

"Just received verbal govt approval for The Boring Company to build an underground NY-Phil-Balt-DC Hyperloop. NY-DC in 29 mins."

"City center to city center in each case, with up to a dozen or more entry/exit elevators in each city."

"Still a lot of work needed to receive formal approval, but am optimistic that will occur rapidly."

"If you want this to happen fast, please let your local & federal elected representatives know. Makes a big difference if they hear from you."

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 20, 2017

Of course, if you're like us, the first question that came to mind after reading those tweets is whether Musk is really just that naive, if he thinks we're all really just that dumb or if he's just gone completely batshit crazy...mix of all three?

Now, we don't have a Masters in Government from Harvard, but we're almost certain there is no such thing as a "verbal agreement" when it comes to massive public projects that span multiple states and cost billions, if not trillions, of taxpayer dollars. And while Musk may be permitted to unilaterally make decisions to burn through hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shareholder money at Tesla, municipalities are specifically designed to prevent granting such powers to individuals when it comes to blowing through taxpayer funds.

Not surprisingly, it didn't take long before various "government" officials took to twitter to point out that they hadn't the faintest clue what Musk was even talking about...

New York City's mayoral press secretary apparently wasn't in the loop...

This is news to City Hall. https://t.co/GmEm0b5C4i — Eric Phillips (@EricFPhillips) July 20, 2017

also, if you're stopping by City Hall, please bring a copy of the proposal. That would help. https://t.co/sk6iCM2ymI — Eric Phillips (@EricFPhillips) July 20, 2017

Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) in New York didn't even know who Elon Musk was...which is not a good sign for that "verbal agreement" getting converted to a 'contractual' agreement at any point in the near future.

I just talked to the New York MTA about this. Press aide is so flabbergasted that they're asking me to spell Elon Musk's name for them. https://t.co/mLWb4Abfb8 — Nathan Bomey (@NathanBomey) July 20, 2017

But, it wasn't just New York City that was flabbergasted by Musk's announcement as government officials from NYC to Washington D.C., and everywhere between, were forced to spend their entire day laughing off calls from anxious reporters about his imaginary project. Per The Guardian:

“Who gave him permission to do that?” asked a spokesman with the Maryland department of transportation.

“Elon Musk has had no contact with Philadelphia officials on this matter,” said Mike Dunn, the city spokesman. “We do not know what he means when he says he received ‘verbal government approval’. There are numerous hurdles for this unproven ‘hyperloop’ technology before it can become reality.”

A spokesperson for the state of Pennsylvania confirmed that neither the governor nor the state’s department of transportation had been contacted by Musk or his company.

Ben Sarle, a spokesman for the New York City mayor’s office, said in an email: “Nobody in City Hall, or any of our city agencies, has heard from Mr Musk or any representatives of his company.”

“The New York state department of transportation did not give verbal approval for a hyperloop,” said spokeswoman Jennifer Post.

Anthony McCarthy, the spokesman for the Baltimore mayor, Catherine Pugh, said: “Mr Musk’s announcement on Twitter was the first that the city heard of the Hyperloop project. ” However, Pugh said in a statement that she was “excited” to hear about the idea, which could “create new opportunities for Baltimore and transform the way we link to neighboring cities” – if it becomes a reality.

Similarly, LaToya Foster, the spokeswoman for Washington DC mayor Muriel Bowser, said: “This is the first we heard of it . We can’t wait to hear more.”

Does anyone else feel like they've seen this proposal somewhere before?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-20/government-flabbergasted-afte
r-elon-musks-most-bizarre-claim-yet

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.
I'll accept your apology any time, THUGR. But I know you're not man enough to give me one

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Monday, July 31, 2017 11:25 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Elon Musk Admits He Is Bipolar

In addition to persistent cash burn problem, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has admitted he is also bipolar.

In a series candid of tweets on Sunday, one day after delivering the first production Model 3, Musk replied to questions by other Twitter users about his mental state, shedding some light on the inner turmoil he struggles with. Asked "whether the the ups and down he had make for a more enjoyable life", Musk responded

"The reality is great highs, terrible lows and unrelenting stress. Don't think people want to hear about the last two." — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 30, 2017

Turns out people did, and when asked if Musk was bipolar, he answered "Yeah" adding in a follow-up tweet that "maybe not medically tho. Dunno. Bad feelings correlate to bad events, so maybe real problem is getting carried away in what I sign up for."

Well, I kinda thought so. The guy spins off grandiose ideas and starts so many grandiose projects that he can't complete. Most of his ideas really don't pencil out even in an back-of-the-envelope calculation, which is too bad because some of his ideas are really worthwhile.

Wildly successful people are often hypomanic or manic. They can be very high-energy, and because they believe so completely in themselves and their ideas, they can be very persuasive and carry a lot of people with them. But then, they mentally go over a cliff because they believe that they can fly, as happened with the NYC- DC "hyperloop" that Musk supposedly got "verbal approval" for, that nobody even heard of.

Bipolar people often love the high, and quite often go off their meds. But maybe a little bit of Depakote would keep at least one of his feet in reality.

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.
I'll accept your apology any time, THUGR. But I know you're not man enough to give me one

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Monday, July 31, 2017 11:55 AM

Yeah... ironically, the highs can be worse than the lows...

I forgot to mention bi-polar in the other thread. My mom finally was diagnosed for it in her late 50's and it's actually nice being around her now. I guess even on the meds my step-dad says she still sometimes is up several days at a time without barely any sleep. (Something I do a lot, especially now since I've supplemented my addictive personality with coffee instead of booze). I wonder if she occasionally skips her meds.

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Monday, July 31, 2017 12:01 PM

Russia approves VPN ban likely to kick apps out of Apple's App Store

The new policy appears even harsher than one instituted by China, which last week forced Apple to pull VPN apps there. The Chinese government is still permitting VPN services in the country as long as they obtain authorization.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/17/07/31/russia-approves-vpn-ban-like
ly-to-kick-apps-out-of-apples-app-store

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Monday, July 31, 2017 12:03 PM

Russia bans VPNs to stop users from looking at censored sites

Russia is cracking down on software that allows users to view internet sites banned by the government.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/31/technology/russia-vpn-internet-putin/i
ndex.html

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Monday, July 31, 2017 12:10 PM

President Putin Bans VPNs in Russia

Presented as a package of antiterrorist legislative amendments, but ultimately this new law increases government access to user data by removing anonymity.

ultimately allows much greater access by the Russian government to individual user's data as well as undermining the security of encrypted communications. In other words, if the Kremlin doesn't like content, it can more easily take it down and take action against the individual who posted it once this law comes into effect on November 1.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/355286/

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Monday, July 31, 2017 12:10 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Is THUGRR nuts?

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.
I'll accept your apology any time, THUGR. But I know you're not man enough to give me one

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Monday, July 31, 2017 12:12 PM

Companies say Apple removed their privacy apps from China

WASHINGTON (AP) — China appears to have succeeded in eliminating software programs that enable its people to view an uncensored internet.

Companies that let people avoid the government filters said Saturday that their programs have been removed from Apple's app store in China.

ExpressVPN, one of the companies, posted on its corporate site a message from Apple saying that its program was illegal in China. The British Virgin Islands-based software company says that all major virtual-private network apps were removed from the Apple app store in China. ExpressVPN claimed Apple was "aiding China's censorship effort."

http://www.sfgate.com/business/technology/article/Companies-say-Apple-
removed-their-privacy-apps-11693907.php

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Monday, July 31, 2017 1:03 PM

Ermmmm... I don't see how any of that relates to Elon Musk or if he is nuts....

That being said, at least here in the States, I think VPN services are a trap.

Signing up for a VPN is like waving a big red flag and saying "I'm trying to hide illegal activity I'm doing online. Please put me on your watch list Big Brother!!!"

I do understand why it should be a concern among nations that actively censor websites though. You can bet your ass that anybody who had a VPN on their apple phones in Russia are on a watch list right now.

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Monday, July 31, 2017 2:58 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Yanno GSTRING, at one time wealthy people threw their money at tulip bulbs too.

The energetics of using fuel to boost a reusable rocket into space, only to waste more fuel in bringing it back down ... you will spend more money on fuel than you will save on carcass. Money-wise and energy-wise, it doesn't work. If you're going to spend the fuel boosting something into space, leave it there. Make a space hotel out of it, or something.

And when I think of the stresses on the rocket body, all I can think of is "Metal fatigue: a boy's best friend." I wouldn't trust a rocket-body to tolerate multiple takeoffs and landings. Even the shuttle made more sense than that; it ditched its main booster on the way up and passively glided back down.

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.
I'll accept your apology any time, THUGR. But I know you're not man enough to give me one

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, July 31, 2017 3:05 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Cancelling Your Model 3 Refund? Expect Delays Due To "System Failures," "IT Issues" Or "Database Errors"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-31/cancelling-your-model-3-refun
d-expect-delays-due-system-failures-it-issues-or-databa

-----------

"Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor"- William Blake
THUGR, JONESING FOR WWIII
All those guns 1kiki, are pointed towards your beloved Russia. All those cyber capabilities, pointed right at Russia. Thanks Putin, and get ready to duck.
I'll accept your apology any time, THUGR. But I know you're not man enough to give me one

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, January 10, 2018 7:53 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Well, in addition to failing to meet the new rollout of electric vehicles ... again ...

Quote:
Highly Classified Satellite Plummeted Into Indian Ocean After SpaceX Launch, Official Confirms

After the launch of the secretive Zuma satellite into outer space aboard the SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Cape Canaveral, reports circulated that the new eye in the sky, which is worth billions, "is presumed to be a total loss after it failed to reach orbit."

Don't even trust a business venture to an [unmedicated] bipolar executive.

A little bit of mania is a good thing, but then ....

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

America is an oligarchy
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Thursday, March 29, 2018 12:53 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Well, between failing to meet production goals (which I predicted long before it became an issue) the new Tesla is tossing out all kinds of faults, and having one of its vehicles incinerate itself after a crash, and possible problems with the Autopilot mode ... Elon Musk is resorting to urging his workers to sweat blood into the project, even as Tesla is hurtling towards bankruptcy:

Tesla Bonds 'Riskier' Than Ukraine As Company Pleads Ignorance Over Fatal Crash
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-28/tesla-bonds-freefall-company
-pleads-ignorance-over-fatal-crash

"Prove The Haters Wrong": Tesla Urges Workers To Ramp Model 3 Production
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-29/prove-haters-wrong-tesla-urg
es-workers-ramp-model-3-production

Maybe it's just me, but when I see a Fearless Leader depending on his underlings to share his mania ... and it could be Chairman Mao or Elon Musk ... that tells me that there is something wrong with the path that they're on.

Yes, SOMEtimes adverse situations require superhuman dedication, but ... not over the long run. Life isn't a videogame or action movie, yanno? Only a few people can go 120% over long periods of time.

Also, there are predictions that China will meet, and beat, the Space X program. From celebratory articles about Space X

How Elon Musk Beat Russia's Space Program
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-07/how-elon-musk-beat-
russia-s-space-program

... to worried articles about future deficiencies ...

China's secret plan to crush SpaceX and the US space program
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/chinas-secret-plan-to-crush-spacex-and
-the-us-space-program.html

... the future of Space X seems less and less robust.

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is a brilliant "ideas person", but a competent administrator he is not. I've come to appreciate the benefits of competent administration even since our daughter transferred from one of the worst-administered elementary schools in LA County (This principal was so bad, she was even fired the year after, and that's saying something!) to one of the best-administered elementary schools in LA County. Good administrators are consistent, they don't expect superhuman efforts, they find the best procedures and STICK WITH THEM, they make sure that their employees have the tools, training, and time to do what they need to do.

I used to work for an "ideas" person who was waaaay too reactive; everything was an EMERGENCY!! and he absolutely could not prioritize. The way HE managed the workload (that he created) was to toss everything up in the air and have everyone else juggle like crazy. He was a crazy-making kind of guy.

I myself am an "ideas" person; as a technical supervisor with a ridiculously large span of control (>>10 people) and knowing the importance of good administration, I did try to re-mold myself into an administrator, but I can say ... it wasn't easy, and I'm sure I failed many times over.

So all that to say ... Elon Musk should turn administration of his companies over to someone who's a really good COO. That way, he can spin out ideas until the cows come home, but someone else can bring the better ones to fruition.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

America is an oligarchy
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Thursday, March 29, 2018 7:07 PM

I can agree with that.

I'm an ideas person myself, and a tactician. But I'm not a good "manager".

I don't handle that role very well, and I never want to have it again.

I'm very good at working on my own at something to an obsessive degree, but I don't like even sharing the work load with others because I strive for perfection and rarely ever am satisfied with my own work, so I'm really hard on anybody who is trying to help out.

That being said, it would be lovely to have Musk money though. What a wonderful little workshop I'd have to tinker in everyday if I did.

I think he's too ambitious. That's his fatal flaw. Hope he figures that out before it's too late.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, March 29, 2018 10:35 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

You'd fit right in with the group of perfectionists that I supervised. They're an awesome bunch!!

There were a few things that I did right, and a whole bunch of things I just never got the hang of.

The good stuff:

I hired really good people. I wasn't the only hiring authority, we did this by committee, but everyone who got hired over my objections turned out to be a dud, and there was only one person that I advocated for who turned out to be a jerk.

I paired every inexperienced person with an experienced one. I didn't rely on "training manuals" and SOPS but good old-fashioned apprenticeship. What we did was really complicated, and we were developing methods as we went along. (In fact, knowing our techniques is what got one of my former employees her job at VERIFIN - Finland's chemical weapons verification center- Well, that plus her PhD in aerosol chemistry, plus her incredible work ethic and stellar personality. But ASIDE from that! ...)

But everyone had SOMEthing that they were really good at - wet chemistry, or instrument troubleshooting, or QA, or computers and software - so no one was ever the total newbie, so they often taught as much as they learned, and I really did my best to have people cross-trained so that I had an expert, a competent analyst, and an emergency-fill-in for every instrument and method. Having this web of cross-training really built up morale and cooperation. People WANTED to work in my group: nobody was left twisting in the wind with a problem they couldn't solve.

I had their back. If an instrument crashed and all of their attempted fixes didn't work, and the work was piling up, I didn't rant at them or the situation, I basically said "Well, shit happens" and went into problem-solving mode with them.

I listened. People mostly know what they need to do to solve their personal or professional problems, nobody really needed "advice", what they needed was reassurance that it would all work out, which it did.

I learned never to assign people the same project with the same level of authority, because that created unnecessary competition, and people spent far too much time worrying about what the OTHER person was doing instead of paying attention to their own work.

I'm an excellent technical problem-solver.

I recognized the work that people did. I couldn't offer them a pay raise, but I could validate that they were doing good work, and that it moved our projects forward.

I'll get to what I did wrong the next time! It's a much longer list!!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

America is an oligarchy
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Friday, March 30, 2018 7:12 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

There seem to be two models of governance in large technology companies run by founder-visionaries: There is the founder-visionary-CEO as perpetual owner and controlling shareholder, who jealously guards his rights so that he can't be unseated by insurgent shareholders or directors, and there is the founder-visionary-CEO who actually does give shareholders a vote, and who relies on his charisma and vision to keep the shareholders and directors in line. Those models often come to more or less the same place, but they don't always; Musk has to wake up every day and persuade his shareholders and directors that his charismatic vision is the right one, in a way that Mark Zuckerberg just doesn't.

Musk owns 22 percent of Tesla shares, with 22 percent of the vote. Plenty of other tech-company founder-CEO-visionaries have found much stronger ways to formalize their perpetual control. Mark Zuckerberg owns about 16 percent of the shares of Facebook Inc., but he controls almost 60 percent of the vote, and almost got the company to give him voting control forever even if he sells more of his stock.

www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-29/elon-musk-might-control-tes
la

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, August 5, 2018 4:26 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

With all that's going on with Tesla, I thought this was funny

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Thursday, August 9, 2018 12:34 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Well, Musk just pulled another ... Musk. He tweeted recently that he was thinking of taking Tesla private a $420 per share, and that "funding secured".

It turns out funding was NOT secured, and altho Tesla's share price has since dropped back from that little jump-up that that announcement engendered ... and Musk didn't gain anything at all from it ... he DID manage to squeeze/ wreak vengeance on those who were shorting Tesla stock!

'Very unusual': Elon Musk's tweet on Tesla going private at specific price
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-tesla-going-private-20180807-
story.html

Elon Musk’s tweet about going private costs Tesla short sellers $1.3 billion
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/elon-musks-tweet-about-going-private-c
osts-tesla-short-sellers-more-t.html

Which just goes to show: Don't believe everything you read on Twitter!

BTW .... I still think Elon Musk is nuts. This is very much like his tweet that he was going to build a hyperloop between NYC-Philly-DC and already got the go-ahead from city planners. When contacted, they said (in essence) What? This is the first I ever hear of it!" https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/20/16003766/elon-musk-boring-company-h
yperloop-nyc-philadelphia-baltimore-dc

Well, not nuts, exactly; it's just that he should be on his meds more often to control those manic "highs".

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Friday, April 16, 2021 8:33 PM

The howard hughes von braun of our time
Looks like they gave him the Moon

Is There a Thin Line Between Genius and Insanity

Reports say. He just won a 2.9 Billion contract
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9480213/Elon-Musks-Spa
ceX-bring-woman-Moon-signing-rocket-deal-NASA.html

https://people.com/human-interest/elon-musk-spacex-2-9-billion-contrac
t-nasa/

https://www.ibtimes.com/nasa-chooses-spacex-take-humans-back-moon-3182
490

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Friday, April 16, 2021 8:43 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Anyone who signs a contract with Musk is as nutty as he is.

Yes, I know: The American space station program ... such as it is ... depends exclusively on Russian "heavy lift" rockets, and since Biden* has done such a fine job pissing off the Russians, and the Russians have threatened counter-sanctions, those in charge of the spce station program must be having a butt-puckering moment.

BUT.

You won't find a solution in a "Hail Mary" SpaceX shot, which AFAIK have NEVER landed successfully!

Tailfin landings??? Seriously?? At least the space shuttle took its inspiration from Star Trek. Musk's program takes its inspiration from Buck Rogers!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

THUGR posts about Putin so much, he must be in love.

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Friday, April 16, 2021 11:35 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Anyone who signs a contract with Musk is as nutty as he is.

Yes, I know: The American space station program ... such as it is ... depends exclusively on Russian "heavy lift" rockets, and since Biden* has done such a fine job pissing off the Russians, and the Russians have threatened counter-sanctions, those in charge of the spce station program must be having a butt-puckering moment.

BUT.

You won't find a solution in a "Hail Mary" SpaceX shot, which AFAIK have NEVER landed successfully!

Tailfin landings??? Seriously?? At least the space shuttle took its inspiration from Star Trek. Musk's program takes its inspiration from Buck Rogers!

Would it really be too much work/effort for you, Signym, to know what you are talking about before you let us know your opinions?

Human Landing System Comparison, Which Artemis Lander is Best?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, April 16, 2021 11:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Would it really be too much work/effort for you, Signym, to know what you are talking about before you let us know your opinions?

That's fucking priceless coming from you.

--------------------------------------------------

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Friday, April 16, 2021 11:55 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Anyone who signs a contract with Musk is as nutty as he is.

Yes, I know: The American space station program ... such as it is ... depends exclusively on Russian "heavy lift" rockets, and since Biden* has done such a fine job pissing off the Russians, and the Russians have threatened counter-sanctions, those in charge of the spce station program must be having a butt-puckering moment.

BUT.

You won't find a solution in a "Hail Mary" SpaceX shot, which AFAIK have NEVER landed successfully!

Tailfin landings??? Seriously?? At least the space shuttle took its inspiration from Star Trek. Musk's program takes its inspiration from Buck Rogers!

Space Shuttle takes inspiration from Star Trek?
How so?
Space Shuttle research, development and testing predates Star Trek.
Even one of the later non-thrust bodies was testing before Star Trek ended. The M2-F2, IIRC crashed horribly. You can see the actual footage of that crash, which was used as the intro to the TV series The Six Million Dollar Man.

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Saturday, April 17, 2021 4:33 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Would it really be too much work/effort for you, Signym, to know what you are talking about before you let us know your opinions?

That's fucking priceless coming from you.

6ix, you are a crazy person with an overabundance of opinions. You make Elon Musk, who is also overly opinionated, look good and sane and moderate in comparison. Also, maybe you should stop having opinions about things you know nothing about? Musk tends, but not always, to know something before he tweets an opinion. As for me, I lived 10 minutes from the Johnson Space Center in a house once owned by an astronaut and I still know engineers at NASA. That's why I'm interested in NASA's Artemis Project.

6ix, how is your crazy campaign going with Haken to get Reaverfan banned from fireflyfans.net? 6ix times you wrote: "Hey Haken. Any chance we can give Reaverfan the boot". Maybe a seventh time will work. Or maybe you should stop having too many strongly held opinions about subjects you're ignorant about and just be quiet? No, you can't because you are a Trumptard and Trump has strong yet ignorant opinions about everything. And he has many, many enemies that he insults constantly.
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=2&tid=64324&mid=113108
2#1131082

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, April 17, 2021 9:34 AM

Don't care, didn't read.

--------------------------------------------------

Imagine the hypocrisy of a government who will allow businesses to card people to get a job or buy groceries, but won't card people to vote in elections and gives millions of non-citizens free money from taxpayers.

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 6:45 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Don't care, didn't read.

Firefly Aerospace Awarded $93.3M to Deliver Suite of Payloads to the Moon in 2023
https://firefly.com/nasa-awards-firefly-aerospace-93-3m-to-deliver-sui
te-of-payloads-to-the-moon-in-2023/
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (“Firefly”), headquartered in Austin, TEXAS, is committed to providing economical and convenient access to space for small payloads
https://firefly.com/about/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 9:16 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Anyone who signs a contract with Musk is as nutty as he is.

Following the award, NASA shared its Source Selection Statement highlighting the rationale behind its decision. NASA's associate administrator human exploration and operations mission directorate (HEOMD), Ms. Kathryn Leuders evaluated the award proposals for Human Landing System (HLS). In the statement, she has highlighted the reasons behind the decision to move forward with SpaceX for the second stage of the contract, which requires the company to demonstrate crewed and uncrewed landings on the lunar South Pole.

More at https://wccftech.com/spacexs-3-billion-nasa-win-did-blue-origin-self-d
isqualify-itself/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 9:55 AM

Direct some of your imaginary psychology degree on yourself, psycho. mkay?

--------------------------------------------------

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 1:10 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Direct some of your imaginary psychology degree on yourself, psycho. mkay?

Do you realize that SpaceX is NOT another name for Elon Musk? Or are you too crazy to understand?

SpaceX Leveraged Its Success With Crew and Cargo Missions To Ensure NASA Bid Win

NASA evaluated the second-phase proposals submitted for the Human Landing System (HLS), the agency's official name for the lunar lander, by SpaceX, Blue Origin and Dynetics according to three criteria. These considered their design, price and management merits, and the big reveal in the selection statement is SpaceX being able to secure an 'Outstanding' rating for its management capability.

In the previous evaluation for the first-phase proposals NASA had deemed this capability as being merely 'Acceptable.' However, in a surprising turn of events that catapulted SpaceX right at the top of the Management food chain, the company received the highest rating for this factor in the selection statement approved by Ms. Leuders yesterday.

The primary factors behind NASA's rating upgrade took into account SpaceX's success with its missions to the International Space Station (ISS), its decision to allow full NASA insight into Starship development and the choice to fund the bulk of Starship development costs.

https://wccftech.com/spacexs-3-billion-nasa-win-did-blue-origin-self-d
isqualify-itself/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 4:29 PM

Not a reply to what you quoted, so once again I have no idea why you quoted it in the first place.

And then I didn't read anything else, since your opinions hold no merit or value.

--------------------------------------------------

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 4:57 PM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Not a reply to what you quoted, so once again I have no idea why you quoted it in the first place.

And then I didn't read anything else, since your opinions hold no merit or value.

Sorry to see that you can't stop yourself from replying. You could learn a lesson from Haken about how to not reply. No matter how many times you've asked Haken to ban Reaverfan, Haken doesn't even acknowledge you exist. It is as if Haken doesn't care whether or not you commit suicide because of your feud with Reaverfan. What difference does it make to Haken if 6ixStringJack lives or dies, understands or has "no idea why"? No difference: http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=2&tid=64324&mid=113115
5#1131155

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, April 18, 2021 10:45 PM

Stay classy.

--------------------------------------------------

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Monday, April 19, 2021 8:23 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Stay classy.

Jeezus, no kidding!

On the off chance that SECONDRATE may have posted something with actual info, I listened to some newbie droning on and on about HIS (unofficial) version of the lunar/Mars lander bids until I had to go make dinner. A large part of his drone consisted of a "review" of Space X's favorable cost structure .... like nobody has ever underbid a project before!!!

SECONDRATE: I've also reviewed bids on major expenditures before, and I've seen vendors underbid by excluding certain things from their bids. Like... er ... performance. The other thing he droned on and on about, continuing to polish a turd, is the "sustainability" of Space X's proposal, based on rocket booster's reuseability.

So I went and looked up it's historic success rate. From 2013 to 2016, SpaceX managed to successfully land 6 of 16 launches.

37 pct: Not a stellar record! Since then, they've landed 14 out of 17: Better, but still not something I would trust actual living people to fly and (especially) land.

The latest news was of another all-too-common explosion

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-starship-prototype-explosion-test-
flight/

SpaceX follows Musk's pattern of overpromising and under-delivering. Hyperloop, for example. Direct computer to brain neural link. Even electric cars for the masses that don't spontaneously burn up or crash themselves in self-driving mode.

Given infinite amounts of government money, Elon Musk has shown he can do ... something ... but SpaceX can't even stick a landing.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

THUGR posts about Putin so much, he must be in love.

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Monday, April 19, 2021 9:05 AM

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Given infinite amounts of government money, Elon Musk has shown he can do ... something ... but SpaceX can't even stick a landing.

The deal is that SpaceX finances the development and gets paid only after it succeeds. If SpaceX fails to deliver supplies to the moon, there are still the other two bidders: Blue Origin Federation, LLC (Blue Origin or Blue) and Dynetics, Inc. (Dynetics).

This is not a petrochemical plant being built where failure means the company goes out of business. Landing supplies on the moon (and eventually people) is more like NASA's hobby. Failure is definitely an option. What worries NASA is not about killing astronauts (it has already killed somewhere around two dozen of them if you count the deaths during training) but that it only has limited money to spend on this hobby. SpaceX is the lower bidder so it got the job. NASA can get a different hobby if SpaceX fails and then Blue Origin and Dynetics fail if and when it becomes their turn to try landing on the moon.

Human Landing System, Option A
Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships-2 (NextSTEP-2) National Aeronautics and Space Administration
April 16, 2021
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-s
election-statement-final.pdf

Quote:
Introduction In my role as the Source Selection Authority (SSA) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA or Agency) Human Landing System (HLS) Option A procurement, for the reasons set forth below, I have selected Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) for an HLS Option A contract award. This selection statement documents my independent analysis and judgment as the SSA and constitutes my final determination on this matter.

SpaceX’s $3 Billion NASA Win – Did Blue Origin Self-Disqualify Itself?
https://wccftech.com/spacexs-3-billion-nasa-win-did-blue-origin-self-d
isqualify-itself/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, April 19, 2021 1:36 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Well, if SpaceX or any other firm doesn't get paid until ... what is the interim project goal, again? A successful UNmanned landing?? .... then NASA doesn't have to continuosly pour money down a rathole. Which is a good thing.

Not sure how that works for the company involved. There has to be some interim successfully-achieved goal, and then the partner company gets .... what?

Altho, based on SpaceX's achievements so far (a lot of rockets exploding) they have not yet achieved any sort of milestone. And if the contract is worded as you say, they will CONTINUE to pour their own development money down their own rathole until ...?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

THUGR posts about Putin so much, he must be in love.

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