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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Did you see the report about the sampling or weighting of the poll for PA?

Some place in NY does a poll for PA, and then everybody else uses that poll as basis for their own analysis. PA seniors lean conservative, and lean likely to vote. So the NY poll has been under sampling and/or under weighting the seniors segment of the PA voters, thus giving the Kamala Kameleon Kampaign a slight lead. But when this error is corrected, the lead goes to Trump.

I don't follow PA polls enough to normally know about this.

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Read on for the new Gallup data referenced in the headline, but first, let's back up for a moment. Yesterday, Rebecca covered some of the newer polling in the presidential race, including CNN and Quinnipiac's pollsters measuring a tied national contest. CNN gave Harris a one-point edge, while the Q-poll had Trump up by a point. I've generally dismissed Quinnipiac surveys for years, given their truly abysmal record of inaccuracy, especially at the state level. Four years ago, the final national Q-poll projected an 11-point Biden victory, a massive, outside-the-margin-of-error miss of nearly seven percentage points. Embarrassing. Quinnipiac showed Biden ahead by five points in Florida, a miss of eight percentage points. All of which is to say that I view any 'data' coming out of that pollster with a jaundiced eye. The obvious, positive spin for Trump is that it seems rather unusual for him to be narrowly leading in a Q-poll of any sort, especially this close to the election.

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