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REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS
The Mid-Term Elections 2018
Wednesday, March 14, 2018 10:41 PM
JEWELSTAITEFAN
Quote:Originally posted by SIGNYM: I think that GOPers here should remember that DEMOCRATS are NOT YOUR ENEMY. It very much depends on what the person ran on. Conor Lamb not only said that he wouldn't support Pelosi, Quote: A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected. http://freebeacon.com/politics/democrat-special-election-nominee-conor-lamb-goes-anti-pelosi/ he is a pro-gun https://heavy.com/news/2018/03/conor-lamb-guns-gun-control-position/ anti-abortion Democrat who is also for jobs infrastructural reinvestment unions https://conorlamb.com/priorities/ Although I disagree with some of his positions, he's closer to my leanings than the GOP. Lamb is a young, photogenic campaigner. Saccone is an older guy with a history of being against unions, in a highly union-friendly state. Like all politicians, we should watch Lamb's commitment to his stated core issues once he gets in Congress. The power structure of both parties rewards followers with plum committee appointments and re-election assistance. Many a fiery candidate has gotten into office only to soften and eventually be re-molded into the shape of their party's money-handlers. If that happens, it merely (and once again) demonstrates the necessity of third, fourth, and fifth parties.
Quote: A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018 10:53 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: This November 6 all House Representatives, or their seats, will face reelection. And about 1/3 of the 100 Senators, currently scheduled to be 34. Minnesota has the rare event that both Senate seats are up for Election. It would be nice if we could keep this thread focused on this Election analysis, discussion or predictions. The 34 Senate seats include 8 Republican seats, 24 Democrat seats, and 2 Independent seats, who caucus with Democrats. SENATE - currently 51 R, 47 D, 2 I. 8 REPUBLICAN 3 Republican Senators are retiring, in AZ, TN, UT. Utah considered safe R. Arizona could be tossup after RINO Flake. Tennessee likely to replace RINO Corker with more solid R. WY, TX, NE, MS expect no change. Nevada could be a tossup. 24 DEMOCRAT - none are seeking retirement. 14 Expect no change: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN (1), NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VA 4 Possible flip: FL, MN (1), OH, WI 6 Tossup: IN, MO, MT, ND, PA, WV 2 INDEPENDENT Maine - might be tossup Vermont - expected to remain Sanders. So, Democrats could easily lose 11 Senators. Or they might flip 2, but certainly still lose the total count. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Seems to be 194 Democrat seats to 241 Republican seats. But currently 193 D seats and 238 R seats are held, with 4 vacant. Looks like in the last midterms 2014 GOP gained 13 seats, and in 2016 Dems gained back 6 seats. 2010 midterms GOP gained 63 House seats. What particular races do you find interesting? So what other contests are on your radar? And how might they effect the balance in Congress?
Wednesday, March 14, 2018 11:08 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Breakout of 51 Reps not running for reelection of their seats: 16 Dems, 35 GOP. Retiring: 9 Dems, 23 GOP. Running for Gov: 4 Dems, 5 GOP. Running for Sen: 3 Dems, 7 GOP. Context: in 2016 Hilliary took CO, MN, IL, WA, CA, OR, NV, NM, VA, HI, MD, DE, NJ, NY, NH, VT, ME, RI, CT, MA. PA could be less predictable, with newly redrawn Districts, and Liberal/Conservative not conforming to norms nor to in-State counterparts. Summary: Likely safe Dems: (11) AZ-9, HI-1, IL-4, MA-3, MD-6, MI-9, MI-13, NM-1, new PA-2, TX-16, TX-29. Likely safe GOP: (36) AZ-8, CA-39, CA-49, FL-6, FL-17, FL-27, ID-1, IN-4, IN-6, KS-2, MI-11, MS-3, NJ-2, NJ-11, NM-2, OH-12, OH-16, OK-1, new PA-5, new PA-7, new PA-9, new PA-11, new PA-14, SC-4, SDAL, TN-2, TN -6, TN-7, TX-2, TX-3, TX-5, TX-6, TX-21, TX-27, VA-6, WA-8, WV-3. Likely flip to GOP: NH-1, NV-3, NV-4, (3) PPossible flip to GOP: MN-1, MN-8, (2) Dems need to gain 24 seats from GOP to take House Majority.
Thursday, March 15, 2018 8:24 AM
6IXSTRINGJACK
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat. I already broke it down in the Evidence thread, and T hasn't dared come into that conversation because he knows I'm right and my detailed response with factual numbers that are backed up by "reputable" sites that he deems propaganda free, destroying his narrative that I can't read. Democratic votes were down 8% from 2012. Republican votes were down 48% from 2012. There's no evidence that anybody flipped. 33% less people voted. The Democrats may have found their winning strategy going forward. Demoralization. Saturate the people with so much negative news on a daily basis that everyone is too tired to vote and hope that they can get more Democrats to show up than Republicans. Do Right, Be Right. :)Evidence thread? WTF? What does evidence have to do with Special Election? Have you followed Alice down the rabbit hole?
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat. I already broke it down in the Evidence thread, and T hasn't dared come into that conversation because he knows I'm right and my detailed response with factual numbers that are backed up by "reputable" sites that he deems propaganda free, destroying his narrative that I can't read. Democratic votes were down 8% from 2012. Republican votes were down 48% from 2012. There's no evidence that anybody flipped. 33% less people voted. The Democrats may have found their winning strategy going forward. Demoralization. Saturate the people with so much negative news on a daily basis that everyone is too tired to vote and hope that they can get more Democrats to show up than Republicans. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)
Thursday, March 15, 2018 8:27 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by SIGNYM: I think that GOPers here should remember that DEMOCRATS are NOT YOUR ENEMY. It very much depends on what the person ran on. Conor Lamb not only said that he wouldn't support Pelosi, Quote: A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected. http://freebeacon.com/politics/democrat-special-election-nominee-conor-lamb-goes-anti-pelosi/ he is a pro-gun https://heavy.com/news/2018/03/conor-lamb-guns-gun-control-position/ anti-abortion Democrat who is also for jobs infrastructural reinvestment unions https://conorlamb.com/priorities/ Although I disagree with some of his positions, he's closer to my leanings than the GOP. Lamb is a young, photogenic campaigner. Saccone is an older guy with a history of being against unions, in a highly union-friendly state. Like all politicians, we should watch Lamb's commitment to his stated core issues once he gets in Congress. The power structure of both parties rewards followers with plum committee appointments and re-election assistance. Many a fiery candidate has gotten into office only to soften and eventually be re-molded into the shape of their party's money-handlers. If that happens, it merely (and once again) demonstrates the necessity of third, fourth, and fifth parties. You mention Lamb leans more toward your interests. Not sure of all the similars. But Trump campaigned against him, Trump seemed to consider Saccone his puppet. If Lamb can oppose Trump nonsense without being radical, that could be a win for America. Wonder why Lamb ran as Dem - was the GOP spot already taken?
Thursday, March 15, 2018 8:51 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat. I already broke it down in the Evidence thread, and T hasn't dared come into that conversation because he knows I'm right and my detailed response with factual numbers that are backed up by "reputable" sites that he deems propaganda free, destroying his narrative that I can't read. Democratic votes were down 8% from 2012. Republican votes were down 48% from 2012. There's no evidence that anybody flipped. 33% less people voted. The Democrats may have found their winning strategy going forward. Demoralization. Saturate the people with so much negative news on a daily basis that everyone is too tired to vote and hope that they can get more Democrats to show up than Republicans. Do Right, Be Right. :)Evidence thread? WTF? What does evidence have to do with Special Election? Have you followed Alice down the rabbit hole?
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat. I already broke it down in the Evidence thread, and T hasn't dared come into that conversation because he knows I'm right and my detailed response with factual numbers that are backed up by "reputable" sites that he deems propaganda free, destroying his narrative that I can't read. Democratic votes were down 8% from 2012. Republican votes were down 48% from 2012. There's no evidence that anybody flipped. 33% less people voted. The Democrats may have found their winning strategy going forward. Demoralization. Saturate the people with so much negative news on a daily basis that everyone is too tired to vote and hope that they can get more Democrats to show up than Republicans. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: lol... And now the country waits with bated breath for the next 5 hours while they tally up the last 1 or 2% of the vote so the MSM can get plenty of commercials in while they speculate. /sarcasm Do Right, Be Right. :)I did not realize the Democraps outspent GOP 5-1 for this race. And it looks like neither candidate will get 50% of the vote. Going into today, MSM said Lamb would win by a 5% margin.It looks like 228,000 votes were cast Tuesday. The last (only) time this district had an opponent for Murphey, there were 320,000 votes cast in November. Lamb got fewer votes than Dem Larry Maggi did then. If Republicans can come up with a viable candidate, hard to know if Lamb will keep the seat.
Thursday, March 15, 2018 8:52 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by SIGNYM: I think that GOPers here should remember that DEMOCRATS are NOT YOUR ENEMY. It very much depends on what the person ran on. Conor Lamb not only said that he wouldn't support Pelosi, Quote: A hand-picked Democratic nominee running in a Pennsylvania special election in March said Monday morning that he wouldn't support Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) if elected. http://freebeacon.com/politics/democrat-special-election-nominee-conor-lamb-goes-anti-pelosi/ he is a pro-gun https://heavy.com/news/2018/03/conor-lamb-guns-gun-control-position/ anti-abortion Democrat who is also for jobs infrastructural reinvestment unions https://conorlamb.com/priorities/ Although I disagree with some of his positions, he's closer to my leanings than the GOP. Lamb is a young, photogenic campaigner. Saccone is an older guy with a history of being against unions, in a highly union-friendly state. Like all politicians, we should watch Lamb's commitment to his stated core issues once he gets in Congress. The power structure of both parties rewards followers with plum committee appointments and re-election assistance. Many a fiery candidate has gotten into office only to soften and eventually be re-molded into the shape of their party's money-handlers. If that happens, it merely (and once again) demonstrates the necessity of third, fourth, and fifth parties. You mention Lamb leans more toward your interests. Not sure of all the similars. But Trump campaigned against him, Trump seemed to consider Saccone his puppet. If Lamb can oppose Trump nonsense without being radical, that could be a win for America. Wonder why Lamb ran as Dem - was the GOP spot already taken?He doesn't seem like a radical to me. I guess you'd have to see what some of his stances on other issues are. I'm sure he has some Democratic leanings and the Democratic party wouldn't just allow this guy to skate on through as a Democrat if he was a hard Republican just to make a huge news story out of it. Oh.... wait. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Thursday, March 15, 2018 10:10 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: I don't have interest in a thread very clearly titled as a second/T/JO delusion. Unless it was about Evidence of Hilliary/Obama Treason, Felony Crimes, Collusion, Election Fraud - which I doubt it was.
Thursday, March 15, 2018 10:12 AM
Quote:Originally posted by Oonjerah: 6IXSTRINGJACK Next time you change your name, I suggest Jack_the_Cynical ... or the Blindly Embittered?
Thursday, March 15, 2018 10:20 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Of the 3 General Elections for this District, 2 times Dems did not even put up any candidate. Lamb sounds like a possible Conservative, the opposite of Trump. What else do the Dems need to hear to flip a seat that they couldn't otherwise get? I would be interested to hear his views on Federal Debt, Deficit, spending.
Thursday, March 15, 2018 11:50 AM
THGRRI
Thursday, March 15, 2018 3:30 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: With just about 1% of the vote left to tally that they're going to drag out for a day or two, and maybe even throw a recount or two in there to keep MSM viewership up with sagging ratings over the current Russian narrative, the MSM's predictions of voter turnout was heavily overstated. It looks as though the voter turnout was only under 220,000... Not even close to the low estimates of 250,000 that they were saying. This is a steep drop in votes by over 70,000 for District 18, in a race that "everyone" was watching, according to the MSM. This also makes one wonder how accurate their percentage of who voted for who could possibly be when the actual voter turnout was 12% less than their lowest estimates. It seems that the MSM still doesn't have their fingers on the pulse of the American voter. Current counted votes found here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html Overall, I'd say the only good news for Democrats is that I was right about people not caring. Republicans for the most part seem to be the ones that didn't go to the polls in this special election. If you look at the numbers from the last actual opposed election for this seat in 2012, the Democrats had 10,000 less votes last night than they did in 2012. The Democrats lost the election with only 36% of the vote in 2012 with 122,146 votes, 10,000 or so more than what they managed last night. (113,111 counted so far, or 92% of 2012 Democratic voter turnout). On the other hand, Republicans won in 2012 with 64% of the vote at 216,727 total votes, 100,000 more than what they managed last night. (112,532 counted so far, or 52% of 2012 Republican voter turnout). 2012 Numbers found here: https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_18th_Congressional_District What this seems to mean to me is that voting is down for both parties, but it was significantly lower for Republicans. There wasn't any flipping from Democrat to Republican going on here. 8% of Democrats who previously voted chose to stay home, while 48% of Republicans who previously voted chose to stay home. A total vote decrease of around 33% (around 110,000 votes) from the last actual contested election in 2012 would suggest that this election was decided by low voter turnout rather than anybody changing sides. Unless we get any hard statistics about actual counts of people who voted Republican in 2012 and/or 2016 who flipped to Democrat in last night's election, nobody should believe anything the MSM says about that being the case. There is no evidence of that happening here. Congratulations on the win. Just keep in mind the numbers as the actual facts when the MSM talks about what the reasons are for this and what it might mean for the future. Don't get your hopes up too much. This race is not the crystal ball the MSM is going to frame it as. Maybe this is the best Democratic strategy for 2018 and 2020. Saturate us with so much negative news in hopes that nobody shows up to polls anymore and that more Democrats will show up than Republicans on election day. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Thursday, March 15, 2018 3:33 PM
Thursday, March 15, 2018 9:18 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The numbers I got from 2012 were juSt under 115K and just under 205K. From wiki. I like that you posted numbers during the count, which I could not get. Be well interesting to know what those numbers are now, from the source you used then. Can't really use cross-source figures when evaluating counting trends. Otherwise your figures look OK. But I can't fully endorse your conclusions and analysis. I have not visited PA in recent months. There are many different factions within the Voting Electorate. The simplest of breakdowns is 3 groups. Those that almost always vote Dem, those that almost always vote GOP, and the rest - often called the swing voter. This middle group is often in urban/suburban areas because they are most susceptible to Mind Control Media within the Media Bubble of their centralized Media Market. Rural voters often need to get satellite dish to obtain their Mind Control Media dosage. Nationwide polls show Americans identify as Conservatives 38%, Liberals 24%. That leaves 38% in the middle. But Presidential Election results are often close to 50% of voters nationwide. Meaning Righties attract about 12% and Lefties attract about 26%, from the middle. Each State and District has different makeup, factions, components. But, on average, Liberals must more than double their core voter, and Conservatives need to add a buffer of about 1/3 their core voter, to get a majority. So. PA-18. Suburbs of Pittsburgh, with 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Murphey usually won with about 64%. Max voter turnout for this District seat was 320,000. I'm not finding the max turnout for President, Governor, Senator for 2012, 2014, 2016. So 85,000 Conservative and 120,000 Liberal could be a rough guess of the core Voting blocks here - I don't have precise data. Liberals often cannot find Voting booths on Election Day, explaining their incomplete turnout. If so, Murphey got 85,000 core plus 120,000 swing voters. And Lamb got practically all of the Liberal core, with Saccone getting 85,000 and only about 30,000 swing voters. Not having better data can make a mess of numbers, but that seems a reasonable picture. In a General Election the Pitt Media Market has several different Districts and levels of Office to produce Spin on. With only one race, all by itself, and no other competing dollar drawn for this date in the nation, the Mind Control Media must have been intense. Come November this 14th District will have media focus diluted.
Friday, March 16, 2018 5:48 AM
Friday, March 16, 2018 5:57 AM
Saturday, March 17, 2018 1:21 AM
Saturday, March 17, 2018 2:04 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The numbers I got from 2012 were juSt under 115K and just under 205K. From wiki. But I can't fully endorse your conclusions and analysis. I have not visited PA in recent months. There are many different factions within the Voting Electorate. The simplest of breakdowns is 3 groups. Those that almost always vote Dem, those that almost always vote GOP, and the rest - often called the swing voter. This middle group is often in urban/suburban areas because they are most susceptible to Mind Control Media within the Media Bubble of their centralized Media Market. Rural voters often need to get satellite dish to obtain their Mind Control Media dosage. Nationwide polls show Americans identify as Conservatives 38%, Liberals 24%. That leaves 38% in the middle. But Presidential Election results are often close to 50% of voters nationwide. Meaning Righties attract about 12% and Lefties attract about 26%, from the middle. Each State and District has different makeup, factions, components. But, on average, Liberals must more than double their core voter, and Conservatives need to add a buffer of about 1/3 their core voter, to get a majority. So. PA-18. Suburbs of Pittsburgh, with 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Murphey usually won with about 64%. Max voter turnout for this District seat was 320,000. I'm not finding the max turnout for President, Governor, Senator for 2012, 2014, 2016. So 85,000 Conservative and 120,000 Liberal could be a rough guess of the core Voting blocks here - I don't have precise data. Liberals often cannot find Voting booths on Election Day, explaining their incomplete turnout. If so, Murphey got 85,000 core plus 120,000 swing voters. And Lamb got practically all of the Liberal core, with Saccone getting 85,000 and only about 30,000 swing voters. Not having better data can make a mess of numbers, but that seems a reasonable picture. In a General Election the Pitt Media Market has several different Districts and levels of Office to produce Spin on. With only one race, all by itself, and no other competing dollar drawn for this date in the nation, the Mind Control Media must have been intense.Yeah. I know what a swing vote is. My statement on what happened was that there is no way to account for how much the swing vote played a factor here. I disagree that the swing voter is the one most susceptible to mind control though. I think the ones who are firmly locked into their own "sides" are the ones who are most susceptible. The Republicans at home watching Fox News everyday in the runup to the election while the Democrats were watching CNN and MSNBC everyday. Meanwhile, nothing ever seems to change for the better no matter who they vote for. I think the people in the middle are just lost and so disenfranchised that they just vote against whatever is going on today since it's always bad. The swing voter at least makes it to the booth though, rather than just staying home.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The numbers I got from 2012 were juSt under 115K and just under 205K. From wiki. But I can't fully endorse your conclusions and analysis. I have not visited PA in recent months. There are many different factions within the Voting Electorate. The simplest of breakdowns is 3 groups. Those that almost always vote Dem, those that almost always vote GOP, and the rest - often called the swing voter. This middle group is often in urban/suburban areas because they are most susceptible to Mind Control Media within the Media Bubble of their centralized Media Market. Rural voters often need to get satellite dish to obtain their Mind Control Media dosage. Nationwide polls show Americans identify as Conservatives 38%, Liberals 24%. That leaves 38% in the middle. But Presidential Election results are often close to 50% of voters nationwide. Meaning Righties attract about 12% and Lefties attract about 26%, from the middle. Each State and District has different makeup, factions, components. But, on average, Liberals must more than double their core voter, and Conservatives need to add a buffer of about 1/3 their core voter, to get a majority. So. PA-18. Suburbs of Pittsburgh, with 35,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Murphey usually won with about 64%. Max voter turnout for this District seat was 320,000. I'm not finding the max turnout for President, Governor, Senator for 2012, 2014, 2016. So 85,000 Conservative and 120,000 Liberal could be a rough guess of the core Voting blocks here - I don't have precise data. Liberals often cannot find Voting booths on Election Day, explaining their incomplete turnout. If so, Murphey got 85,000 core plus 120,000 swing voters. And Lamb got practically all of the Liberal core, with Saccone getting 85,000 and only about 30,000 swing voters. Not having better data can make a mess of numbers, but that seems a reasonable picture. In a General Election the Pitt Media Market has several different Districts and levels of Office to produce Spin on. With only one race, all by itself, and no other competing dollar drawn for this date in the nation, the Mind Control Media must have been intense.
Saturday, March 17, 2018 8:13 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another? ??? Did you really post that?
Tuesday, March 27, 2018 6:22 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Senate races. The Democrats: In MO 2006 (last midterm) McCaskill won with 49.6% of the vote. In MT Tester won in 2012 with 49% and in 2006 with 49.2%. In ND Heitkamp won in 2012 with 50%. In WI 2012 Baldwin won with 51% against a RINO, who had 66% of the Primary vote against him. In IN Donnelly won in 2012 with 50.04% of the vote. In OH Brown won 56% in 2006 and 51% in 2012, when Obama carried 51% - 48%. In ME King won in 2012 with 53%, while Obama carried it 56% - 41%. In 2014 the Republican won with 68%. In PA Casey won 58% in 2006 and 54% in 2012, when Obama carried 52% - 46%. In FL Nelson won 60% in 2006 and 55% in 2012. Rick Scott cannot be Gov past Jan 2019. In WV Manchin won 61% in 2012. In 2014 the Republican won with 62%. Those first 6-7 should be easy pickups for the GOP. But with RINO McConnell controlling Senate Campaign funds, it could be disaster for GOP.
Tuesday, March 27, 2018 6:28 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another? ??? Did you really post that?No. I didn't. I said that the people who always blindly vote for the same party no matter what are the ones who are mind controlled. THEY are the people responsible for the great divide in our country right now and are foolishly playing into the hands of the powerful people that are pulling the strings. THEY are the reason that we have neo-cons and neo-libs in office and we have a Congress that nobody ends up approving or trusting. The swing voter is the one who might at least possibly have a mind of their own. I don't think that it is a case in the majority of them for sure, but if you're looking for somebody who can actually think for themselves, don't bother looking to somebody who always votes R or always votes D. The lights might be on, but nobody is home. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Tuesday, March 27, 2018 6:52 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: The voter that almost always votes for the same Party is the most likely to change their vote from one Election to another? ??? Did you really post that?No. I didn't. I said that the people who always blindly vote for the same party no matter what are the ones who are mind controlled. THEY are the people responsible for the great divide in our country right now and are foolishly playing into the hands of the powerful people that are pulling the strings. THEY are the reason that we have neo-cons and neo-libs in office and we have a Congress that nobody ends up approving or trusting. The swing voter is the one who might at least possibly have a mind of their own. I don't think that it is a case in the majority of them for sure, but if you're looking for somebody who can actually think for themselves, don't bother looking to somebody who always votes R or always votes D. The lights might be on, but nobody is home. Do Right, Be Right. :)So those who have principles and vote accordingly are blind, foolish, and mind-controlled, and the wishy-washy flavor-of-the-day fickle voter has a mind of their own, based upon how many dollars are spend re-educating them? How enlightening to learn of this phenomena. So this means the mind-control only works on those who never change their vote. So there is no need or use for political ads. Amazing. And yet all data shows that the mind-control and political ads only work on populations within the media bubbles (population centers), to swing the votes from one direction to another, from one election to another. Those outside the media mind-control bubble remain consistently Conservative - look at the election results by voting ward sometime.
Monday, April 2, 2018 11:57 AM
Monday, April 2, 2018 5:39 PM
Friday, April 6, 2018 1:20 AM
Friday, April 6, 2018 1:29 AM
Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T
Friday, April 6, 2018 9:17 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T
Friday, April 6, 2018 2:11 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Friday, April 6, 2018 5:54 PM
REAVERFAN
Friday, April 6, 2018 8:02 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction. Do Right, Be Right. :)kpo does not post predictions which are embarrassing to Libtards. kpo only posts highly biased, slanted, unbalanced viewpoints. Reasonable and balanced views are verbotten. 6ix, did you notice T's continued syntax failures again seeped into your post?
Saturday, April 7, 2018 2:39 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Saturday, April 7, 2018 3:38 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Monday, April 9, 2018 10:47 PM
Monday, April 9, 2018 10:53 PM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campai gn/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction. Do Right, Be Right. :)Here is a quote of your post, uncorrected. Normally, quoted text is shown in Cyan. In your post the quote you have to f my post is in white. When I quoted you the first time, I had to correct syntax of T to get your post in Cyan.
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campai gn/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be. It's not a bad prediction. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campai gn/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T Anybody wanna bet this prediction does not appear in kpo's thread?
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campai gn/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T
Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: GOP lawmaker: Republicans 'would be well-advised to get ready' for Dem wave in midterms Democrats have already secured multiple special election victories at the state and federal level in the last year in areas that President Trump won heavily in 2016. http://thehill.com/homenews/campai gn/381204-gop-lawmaker-republicans-need-to-be-ready-for-possible-dem-wave-in-midterms T
Monday, April 9, 2018 11:21 PM
Thursday, April 12, 2018 4:27 PM
JJ
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: The House Speaker Paul Ryan does not plan to seek re-election after his current term is up next year, a new report said Thursday. he Wisconsin Republican and one-time vice presidential candidate — who first entered Congress in 1999 and was elected speaker in October 2015 — has told pals he’s had enough, Politico reported. The website, citing interviews with three dozen associates, said Ryan was tiring of the job, but would not make a public announcement because he would lose power as a lame duck, making it even more difficult to enact President Trump’s stalled agenda. But Ryan said later he’s not leaving Congress anytime soon. Asked by a reporter if he planned to quit anytime soon, Ryan chuckled and said, “I’m not. No.” https://nypost.com/2017/12/14/paul-ryan-might-not-seek-re-election-in-2018/ T
Quote:Originally posted by THGRRI: The House Speaker Paul Ryan does not plan to seek re-election after his current term is up next year, a new report said Thursday. he Wisconsin Republican and one-time vice presidential candidate — who first entered Congress in 1999 and was elected speaker in October 2015 — has told pals he’s had enough, Politico reported. The website, citing interviews with three dozen associates, said Ryan was tiring of the job, but would not make a public announcement because he would lose power as a lame duck, making it even more difficult to enact President Trump’s stalled agenda. But Ryan said later he’s not leaving Congress anytime soon. Asked by a reporter if he planned to quit anytime soon, Ryan chuckled and said, “I’m not. No.” https://nypost.com/2017/12/14/paul-ryan-might-not-seek-re-election-in-2018/ T
Wednesday, April 25, 2018 6:24 PM
Wednesday, April 25, 2018 6:53 PM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Sounds like yesterday's Election for Arizona-8 was won by a Conservative woman. And Trump had tweeted in support of her. The MSM/DNC polls had shown conservative voters underrepresented, shocking revelation to all.
Thursday, April 26, 2018 10:25 PM
Friday, April 27, 2018 7:42 AM
Tuesday, May 1, 2018 7:43 PM
Monday, May 7, 2018 1:30 PM
Wednesday, May 9, 2018 4:16 AM
Wednesday, May 9, 2018 12:19 PM
Thursday, May 10, 2018 2:12 AM
Thursday, May 10, 2018 3:27 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Apparently Mike Braun in Indiana is a lifelong Democrat who is now a newly minted lifelong Republican and Conservative.
Quote:Braun is from Jasper, Indiana. He graduated from Jasper High School. He went to Wabash College, where he earned a bachelor's degree, and Harvard Business School, where he earned a master's degree. Braun is the president and CEO of Meyer Distributing. Braun was a member of the Jasper School Board from 2004 to 2014. He was succeeded by Arlet Jackle. He was elected to the state House in 2014. Braun won the Republican primary for the United States Senate in the 2018 election. Braun resigned from the state House on November 1, 2017, to focus on his U.S. Senate campaign. Braun and his wife, Maureen, have four children. He is Roman Catholic. Braun's brother, Steve Braun, was a candidate for the Republican nomination in Indiana's 4th congressional district.
Thursday, May 10, 2018 3:55 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Apparently Mike Braun in Indiana is a lifelong Democrat who is now a newly minted lifelong Republican and Conservative. Quote:Braun is from Jasper, Indiana. He graduated from Jasper High School. He went to Wabash College, where he earned a bachelor's degree, and Harvard Business School, where he earned a master's degree. Braun is the president and CEO of Meyer Distributing. Braun was a member of the Jasper School Board from 2004 to 2014. He was succeeded by Arlet Jackle. He was elected to the state House in 2014. Braun won the Republican primary for the United States Senate in the 2018 election. Braun resigned from the state House on November 1, 2017, to focus on his U.S. Senate campaign. Braun and his wife, Maureen, have four children. He is Roman Catholic. Braun's brother, Steve Braun, was a candidate for the Republican nomination in Indiana's 4th congressional district.If by "Lifelong Democrat" you mean between the time he got his Liberal brainwashing at Harvard up until he served a low level government post on a school board, and by "newly minted" you mean back in 2012 while he was still on the school board and two years before he went into any real politics. Do Right, Be Right. :)
Thursday, May 10, 2018 3:52 PM
Friday, May 11, 2018 1:01 AM
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Yup. He's like 62, right? Being 54, on School Board, and CEO as Registered Democrap does not add up to Conservative to me. Being a Libtard for 30ish years of adulthood in the real world could just imply he is beyond stupid.
Quote:Have you checked the Unemployment Rate thread?
Quote:Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN: Looks like none of those ballyhooed teachers were able to locate the Voting booths like they claimed they would, in OH, IN, WV, NC. Good thing Unionized overpaid teachers are Untrainable.
Friday, May 11, 2018 2:24 AM
Quote:Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: Good. My property taxes went up 20% last year, and 90% of that rise was for education. Do Right, Be Right. :)
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