REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

"A few more storms like Typhoon Haiyan may finally make our leaders act on climate change"

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Monday, November 18, 2013 09:30
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Sunday, November 17, 2013 9:19 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

By some early measures, Typhoon Haiyan — which ripped through the Philippines and claimed thousands of lives — is one of the strongest storms on record to make landfall ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/07
/super-typhoon-haiyan-closes-in-on-philippines-among-strongest-storms-ever
/). But mega-storms like Haiyan and Hurricane Sandy are just one of the many warnings that we are flying toward climate disaster.

In the past couple of years, the United States has experienced the worst East Coast flooding in decades, as well as the most intense and largest drought in decades; 2012 was the warmest year on record in the lower 48 states ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/warmest-
year-on-record-in-us-almost-assured/2012/12/06/301aff3c-3fdd-11e2-bca3-aadc9b7e29c5_blog.html
). Massive forest fires have blazed throughout the drought-ridden West. Globally, the number of weather-related catastrophes has roughly doubled since 1980 ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/warmest-
year-on-record-in-us-almost-assured/2012/12/06/301aff3c-3fdd-11e2-bca3-aadc9b7e29c5_blog.html
). There is more bad news to come: rising sea levels, more-acidic oceans and more climate-related disasters.

Through all of this, Congress sits supine. And it’s no mystery why: The oil and gas industry has spent about $1.5 billion on registered lobbying in the past 15 years ( http://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/top.php?showYear=a&indexType=i) and hundreds of millions ( http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/industries.php?cycle=All) on federal campaign contributions. This industry largesse has helped bury climate-change information and policies, while the United States and the world suffer ever more disasters. Yet this paralysis could end soon — just a few more big storms, droughts and heat waves are likely to trump the oil industry’s big bucks.

The lobbyists’ main talking point — that controlling climate change would wreck the economy — is designed to foster confusion and inaction. After each catastrophe, we are told there is no proof that the particular disaster was caused by human-made climate change. And that’s true enough. Nature is variable. But it’s also true that the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters are on the rise. Just as smoking causes lung cancer but not every case of it, human-induced climate change leads to more weather-related disasters but does not cause every one.

Imagine if the pilot on your next flight were to use the same logic as the oil industry and its congressional stalwarts. Just before takeoff, he announces that several alarm signals show that the engines are dangerously overheated. But, he adds, we’ll take off anyway because the signals are often false alarms. By the end of the announcement, you and the other passengers would be rushing for the exits, if not storming the cockpit. So too will the American people eventually react, and probably much sooner than our leaders realize.

Americans are not as obtuse as the oil industry hopes, despite the misinformation the lobbyists shovel at us. In a climate survey last month, the Pew Research Center found that 67 percent of Americans ( http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/9-26-13%20Energy%20Releas
e.pdf
) believe that there is “solid evidence the earth is warming.” And of that strong majority, around two-thirds attributed the warming “mostly” to human activity rather than natural causes, in line with the scientific consensus. By a wide margin in another recent poll ( http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/9-26-13%20Energy%20Releas
e.pdf
) — 58 percent to 34 percent — Americans favored developing alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and hydrogen technology over expanding oil, coal and natural gas exploration and production.

Environmental catastrophes have a nasty way of overturning the political order. The Soviets learned this with the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown in 1986. George W. Bush learned it when he failed to respond effectively to Hurricane Katrina. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad learned it when severe droughts hit their countries in recent years, leading to soaring food prices that stoked unrest. Mitt Romney learned it when Hurricane Sandy pushed Chris Christie into the arms of President Obama. And China’s leaders are learning it today, as the public recoils from the severely polluted air and water.

I predict that America’s next political movement will not be a tea party but an environmental revolt. Another spate of catastrophes, perhaps a mix of extreme drought, storms and heat waves — all to be dreaded but, alas, to be expected — could provide the tipping point.

Americans already sense that the oil, coal and gas industries are threats, not saviors. Yes, we will need oil and gas for some time to come — coal should certainly be the first to go — but public opinion already backs low-carbon energy. With a strategy for developing these alternatives, America could produce and use energy far more cleanly, safely and efficiently, without threatening the planet. And so, too, could the rest of the world.

We will continue for a while longer, no doubt, in our lobbyist-induced paralysis. Many more communities around the world are likely to bury their dead in the wake of extraordinary floods, famines and storms. And then, finally, we will awaken to the new realities. Americans will support leaders with the vision and plans to create a safe and responsible energy system, who offer a credible road map for rolling out low-carbon energy technologies that are cost-effective and will improve our safety and quality of life.

Close to the 50th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s assassination, let’s remember that he called on America to go to the moon and undertake other space ventures “not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-few-more-storms-like-typhoon-
haiyan-may-finally-make-our-leaders-act-on-climate-change/2013/11/15/f1b5baa0-4c94-11e3-be6b-d3d28122e6d4_story.html


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Sunday, November 17, 2013 9:49 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


I may just clip and save this, as the "Why doesn't the bad U.S. do something about global climate change?" threads seem to be more and more popular.


Quote:

China is INCREASING CO2 emissions by around 250 million metric tons a year. The U.S. has TOTAL CO2 emissions of around 1.5 billion metric tons a year. Even if the U.S. disappeared and its CO2 emissions went to zero, just the Chinese INCREASE would make up that 1.5 billion metric tons IN SIX YEARS.

You can check the figures on the Preliminary 2011 Global & National Estimates spreadsheet linked here.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html



We're not in the driver's seat concerning emissions any more.





"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Sunday, November 17, 2013 11:14 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

We're not in the driver's seat concerning emissions any more.


However, we've been first for decades, and we're now a close second, so our historic contribution (yep, carbon dioxide does hang around for 1000 years or more) is quite a bit larger.

In addition, because our PER CAPITA is so high, we have a LOT MORE ROOM TO REDUCE.

Finally, I agree we need a mechanism to force non-complying nations to reduce carbon emissions... and that means us too. Since we're so profligate in our energy use, by what moral authority can we "force" other nations to reduce their carbon emissions? The answer is.. we can't. So we are stuck until WE take the first steps.

GEEZER, have you ever read about the Easter Islanders? (Rapa Nui?) Apparently, they committed ecocide: they cut down all their tall palms trees, and could no longer make ocean-going vessels for fishing. After that, their population collapsed catastrophically from a combination of starvation and cannibalism: a post apocalyptic scenario better than zombie movies.

Quote:

... the island was home to many species of trees, including at least three species which grew up to 50 feet or more..., as well as at least six species of native land birds. Barbara A. West wrote, "Sometime before the arrival of Europeans on Easter Island, the Rapanui experienced a tremendous upheaval in their social system brought about by a change in their island's ecology... By the time of European arrival in 1722, the island's population had dropped to 2,000–3,000 from a high of approximately 15,000 just a century earlier."
By that time, 21 species of trees and all species of land birds went extinct through some combination of overharvesting/overhunting, rat predation, and climate change. The island was largely deforested, and it did not have any trees more than 10 feet tall. ... residents were no longer able to build seaworthy vessels, significantly diminishing their fishing abilities.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island

In a quest for food- which couldn't go beyond shallow waters- the islanders hunted the land birds to extinction, rats, and - eventually- each other. According to modern-day islanders, one of the insults they hurled at each other during this time of starvation and collapse was "Your mother's flesh is stuck between my teeth". Because the trees were gone, the ceaseless hard wind that Rapa Nui is noted for carried away soil, leaf litter, and other organic matter, and the islanders were forced to mulch with stone.

The question that some people ask is What was that man thinking as he cut down the last tree?

As a libertarian, you do not have an answer to this problem, which is called "the problem of the commons". That is one of the reasons why I don't find libertarianism a convincing option.

So, what is your answer to global climate shift? Do you have one?


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Sunday, November 17, 2013 11:32 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



It never was and never will be about " the climate ".




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Sunday, November 17, 2013 11:41 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Yanno what? Let's screw Venezuela and Saudi Arabia: Let's conserve our oil and stop paying them for it.

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Sunday, November 17, 2013 11:43 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Yanno what? Let's screw Venezuela and Saudi Arabia: Let's conserve our oil and stop paying them for it.



I have no problem conserving and smartly using our resources.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Monday, November 18, 2013 9:30 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
As a libertarian, you do not have an answer to this problem, which is called "the problem of the commons".



The Easter Islanders were Libertarians? Per wiki, it appears that it was a Monarchy with a clearly defined class system, and then a Theocracy with rule based on who could be the first to return with a bird egg from Moto Nui (!?!). One would assume it was the folks in power who ordered the trees cut, etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Easter_Island

The "problem of the commons" can occur anywhere, under any type of government, if the people are not responsible. Look at the levels of pollution in Chinese cities, or the disappearance of the Aral Sea for examples.

If all the Libertarians on Propertarian Island decided to cut down their own trees, through lack of knowledge or unconcern for the consequences, you could have an Easter Island type disaster. However, since the folks there would have a very high regard for property rights, if some folks decided to keep their trees, they would remain standing, providing seed stock (probably at a price) if other folks wanted trees later on.

If the Politburo on Stalin Island decided to cut down all the trees, through lack of knowledge or unconcern for the consequences, all the trees would be cut down. There is no other option.

If the majority of citizens on Communitarian Island voted to cut down all the trees, through lack of knowledge or unconcern for the consequences, all the trees would be cut down. There is no other option.




Quote:

So, what is your answer to global climate shift? Do you have one?



Sure I have an answer, and I've stated it again and again.

Prepare for global climate shift. Determine where the likely problems with rising sea levels and changing fertile zones will occur and make changes to ameliorate them as much as possible. For example, stop providing government-backed insurance for folks who want to build homes on seacoasts and barrier islands already prone to storm damage.

It could be that in fifty or a hundred years technology will catch up with the problem of greenhouse emissions and we can reduce CO2 to a reasonable level, and it would be wise to work on this. Until that point, the object should be to ride out the changes with as little damage as possible.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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