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The Venezuelan economy - did it fall, did it jump, or was it pushed?

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, August 14, 2018 13:12
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Friday, August 10, 2018 1:29 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


When you have just one single export - in this case oil - it makes your economy insecure.

Venezuela: Oil Company Sanctions
May 24, 2011

Venezuela to face US sanctions over violence against protesters
Dec 12, 2014

President Obama slaps sanctions on Venezuela - CNN Money
Mar 9, 2015

US Congress Passes New Sanctions Against Venezuela
Jul 8, 2016

White House Raises Pressure on Venezuela With New Financial
Aug 25, 2017

U.S. Places New Sanctions on Venezuela Day After Election
May 21, 2018


You'll also see a HUGE drop in annual average crude oil prices, in 2015 they were less than half those in 2014. https://www.statista.com/statistics/262858/change-in-opec-crude-oil-pr
ices-since-1960
/ But the annual average smooths out the true drama. In two months in 2015 the price of oil plummeted from 61/bbl to 38/bbl. That sure smells like an intervention. At the time it was seen as a US-instigated Saudi-facilitated strike against Iranian (and possibly Russian) oil exports. But it didn't help the Venezuelan economy.

There's plenty of evidence the Venezuelan economy was both deliberately and accidentally pushed.

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Friday, August 10, 2018 4:30 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It was a combination of all of the above IMHO. Venezuela -with the WORLD's LARGEST KNOWN OIL RESERVES - was a ripe target for sanctions and destabilization. They were particularly hurt by falling oil prices, and there is unfortunately a significant amount of corruption and incompetence at home, leading to pilfering and spoilage of goods.

And not to forget there was a recent attempt on Maduro's life.

Chavez turned Venezuela's oil money to "help" the poor: Housing, education, healthcare. Venezuela to this day has an arrangement with Cuba for oil in exchange for teachers and doctors. All very noble goals. But unlike Russia, neither Chavez nor Maduro made any efforts ... not any successful efforts, anyway ... to diversify their internal production. It is a puzzle how a nation with a year-round climate for growing can be suffering from food shortages.

I realize that nations like Cuba and Venezuela don't have a wide variety of resources on which to build an economy. Venezuela, for example, lacks metal ores, and Cuba lacks everything except fertile land, fishing, and limestone (for cement manufacturing). But if Cuba could survive sanctions, so could Venezuela.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Friday, August 10, 2018 4:38 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


By the way, did you hear about the violent Nicaraguan demonstrations a few weeks ago?
Whatever happened to them?

One interpretation was that this was an attempted "regime change" operation which failed. EDITED TO ADD: Because it featured sniping by unknown parties.

*****

And now, suddenly, Trump has turned the "sanctions" guns on Turkey because ... why? The Turkish lira is imploding, many other "emerging market" currencies are following suit. Turkish lawyers want to arrest (some) American military officers based in Incirlik for "supporting terrorism". (And don't forget, Erdgogan survived what many feel is an American-inspired coup attempt two years ago.) And this is all about an American pastor being held in Turkey? He's been in jail since 2016 ... why NOW, all of a sudden?



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Sunday, August 12, 2018 11:44 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


This is the Banana Republic show and the Generalissmo Cult of personality in Latin America. There is no Middle Class in S.America no middle class politics no middle class economy and there is nobody really paying taxes, there is only the extreme rich and the extreme poor, one extreme of Leftism Commie militia or one extreme of Conservative Rightwing militia. La "República Bananera" or "República del Plátano" no matter how they try to change its usually a corrupt, smoke and mirrors People's Republic of Tyranny or a Puppet State guy wearing some military style hat an economy built on chocolate or oil or banana or cigars or some coca leaf but not built on all, heavily depending on one item, one leader and very suspect shakey foundations .

The Generalissmop Republic of Latin America, will probably contain all the usual runaway che guevara militia type Jailbirds of Colombia, Cuba, Panama etc. The United States and other nations may have problems with 'corruption' but it is nothing like Latin America. The USA and other nations have a longer cultural evolution and longer history than most of these 'new' Latin American countries, 500 yrs the United States has been evolving since the European explorers arrived and i guess there always was turmoil, there is a tragedy in history, wars, slavery and land taken from Natives but there is an evolution always a possible path to freedom. A long history of independence civil war revolution, the USA is very different these nations the US constitution, the mix of ideas from revolutionaries the guys had different churches Christians, Lutherans, Protestants, Episcopalians, Presbyterians, Quakers, probably a lot of Masons and maybe Diesm or Diests, the ideas of Trade and of Free Speech. While nations wared with each other over religion or race or politics a new country was going to be born with freedom to exchange many good ideas.


The Spanish Empire or Latin American Empire died a long time ago, historically they lost out to the birth of the USA, they lost to British, French and the growing economic and military might of United States of America, in each remarkable event in world history each battle the Spanish or Latin typically lost every exchange they did not even receive the 'bronze' medal, the Latin American Empire was never to be it. The idea of a great Spanish century it never did happen it is like the old ruined temples you might find in Asia, India, Arabia, Europe or the runs of Rome and Egypt. Spain in Europe is not long out of its own dictatorship, and before this a civil War between Fascists and Communists. I am not sure Spain became a real country or true united country, imagine for a second a bizzaro timeline of the United States in the twlightzone where huge chunks of America were removed and still spoke Dutch, Native American langauges, English and French...Spain is it more a collection of people and was it ever 'born' the Basque, Galacian, Asturian, Catalan are they Spanish. However when you compare life with the poorer Western Nations of Europe the old nations Europeans are still far more comfortable and richer than their cousins of South America. When you contrast the greatest economic Latin American nations say Mexico or Brazil next say France, Germany, Italy the Latin American nations they have growth but do not have any stability, they have massive social issues Latin American nations are torn by drugs and gangs and murder and crimes on levels you might see in some part of the Middle East or Africa.

To economically and socially compare Even the richest Economy of Latin America with double the population of say their cousins in Europe is still many, many times poorer than Italy or France. The United States economy is a very different economy and many Western style Democratic economy are built on diverse economic ideas, for example Canada or USA or Australia will not just sell one item, they have ores, they build machine parts, they export farm produce and vegetable fats, they do software, car parts, tools etc Latin America the economies typically they have one Leader and One export, "República Bananera" as people call them! when the Oil market collapsed the entire economy of Venezuela collapsed. Like having a sports team with only one player, if you depend too much on one item and that one item drops, everything falls.


The USA accepts competition but does not like unwanted agression, Venezuela may have been a light weight a feather weight boxer trying to punch with big boys like the Evader Holyfield, Lennox Lewis, Max Schmelling types, George Foreman, the Klitschkos, Ken Norton...no matter how tough or revolutionary or agressive anyone is it is almost impossible to fight with the big economic and military boys who have their summits and secret meetings and clubs. Chavez started to becoming something of an embarassment to the rest of Latin America. I remember seeing video at one Latin American meeting of the Spanish King from Spain Europe telling S.America Venezuela Hugo Chavez to 'shut up'. Hugo Chavez thought he was smart getting the mob on his side, he would call Bush the devil el diablo, gave away free oil heating to people in Harlem. The USA doesn't like agression and some way, through some kind of counter or block or CIA or an attack by money movement in banking the United States will find a way to pay some pay, one agressive payback. You can compete with America in free competition but is foolish to make an enemy of the United States, that goes for future bad relations with Iran or the Turks or whomever most of them will all fail and collapse, I don't agree with War or any bullshit the CIA does but the USA and I suppose to an extent the international banker 'cabal' or the banking elite will find some way to make you pay.




Communism, Marxism or Socialism does not work, in general if you get a good sales man it can look ok as an idea....the Mob loves to worship someone who can save them...much like the 'Jaynestown' episode. Communism, Socialism in general will not work yet people still buy Bernie stuff and big green social party stuff and Socialist ideas. Look deeper the book has a fancy cover but starts to soon fail.... some of the few exceptions may be the Chinese or the Nordic and French models but I don't believe they are truly socialists. They are not real 'commies' they are not Castro or Joe Stalin nations retain a lot of economic movement and cultural traditions. China also may be criticized as a dictatorship but it is more economically free, the political and historical system of Venezuela has a poor foundation set itself up for failure. Modern economics depends on constant fast growth, the economy needs to be both fast and flexible. Also a problem for Venezuela a global downturn, economically people across the world are not 'shopping' so much, global GDP or world economic growth is not the same as it used to be, if you looked at a graph in the 50s, 60s, 1970s, 80s and 90s it was up and down a little but consumerism it would have on average been a straight up hockey stick for many Western economics. The USA is a big consumer, Bubble and Burst...how to fix a downturn create another Bubble another Burst...as for debts and deficits they just keep kicking the can down the road, maxed out on credits and debit cards don't worry. Has anyone seen if the world economic books are correct and balanced, London once a world power a world Empire said your cheque is in the post. "Have ya paid your dues, Jack?" "Yessir, the check is in the mail."

The USA Eats, imports and the USA exports and maybe Germany, Japan major leaders the dot com bust after Clinton slowed things down, next was the WTC attack 911 and the Bush administration told everyone to not worry about the War on Terror just take a loan and just go shopping as the elite spend blood and treasure on Iraq and watch the sub prime loan and global finacial crisis unwind, it leads to another bubble and bust.


The economic center of gravity of the Earth at one time have been very close to NYC, a red ball hold the economic center of gravity close to the United States but now it has shifted back in the direction of Europe/Asia. This red ball an economic center of gravity moved in the Direction of America when the United States was born, it moved back away from the United States after Vietnam it has been moving Eurasia, Russia, China, world economic growth can easily shift back in the direction of the United States, some Asian economies and emerging economies set themselves up to benefit from globalization, Venezuela not so much and now with unstability, Wars, Trump, Brexit we could enter an era of re-set and 'protectionism' which means Venezuela a light weight in an economic rumble it will suffer even more.

Part of the vote for Trump may have been the American public just being fed up, the did not want another Clinton or another Bush. In general I think a lot of Americans do not fully trust their government or trust the news, in a way some level of scepticism might be healthy. Are so called allies only out for their own interests, could Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi or whatever nation stab the USA in the back? Is there an benefit to the Middle East and why has America been bombing Iraq in constant war for close to 30 years?

I also believe the exotic fantasy exploration of islam has come to an end, Islam is annoying and troublesome the West the jihadi moslem men and women who go around freaking out over South Park toons, going jihad over bacon or dogs, shooting, attack, bruning and bombing at San Bernardino, the Boston marathon, the music concerts and sports stadiums in Europe, Flordia, these people who follow this al Lah and follow the word of their 'mohammed' to the letter, they only expose how totally incompatible islam is with Western style democracy. As for the Israeli Jewish question there is no doubt they have a big 'lobby' as the TN radio poster PirateNews would say but he also posted a whole bunch of tinfoil headed bigoted bullshit. What is true is this group or Lobby is not really an ally, they are for Israel and the Jewish and not for America, in fact I don't know if America has true allies? maybe only itself? I find it strange how some of the Lobbyists criticize Trump on immigration while supporting 'The Israeli wall' and sending people back to Arabia or Africa or India or where they are 'supposed to be from'? The Palestinian question is full of holes, no doubt the innocent, they deserve to live in peace, the Palestinians suffer under and have been killed by Israeli yet Arab states have attacked Israel in wars many times, Israel has defended itself and won and Israel has a right to exist. The Latin American nations may have some feeling towards the poor of Arabia, muslims, Palestine but that sympath only goes so far when they massacre Christians and bomb attack train stations and embassies in Argentina. What is also noticable is how quickly lines can shift on a map the Sykes-Picot Agreement gone with the explosion of ISIS or Daesh or ISIL, a nation like Venezuela and even the entire of Latin America has almost zero influence on a place like this, I would not be surprised to see the creation of a Kurdistan.

What is hard to predict on Venezuela, Latin America? An era of Protectionism, blocks and protecting trade measures VERSUS a Black Underground .....a place with hidden Sales, Dark Store Market an Underground Dark Black Market Economy .... the Black Market is where Trade will continue despite the Governments of the world blocking or interfeering and using trade and sanctions and embargo. An Economy will continue even if another person tries to Block it, we see it in Cuba, North Korea, Iraq etc life might be terrible but something moves somewhere, an underground economy, outside of the banks eyes or shadow economy is a clandestine market or transaction that has some aspect of illegality...in the States you might hear of Moonshine, cannabis, marijuana, and hemp, home made beers, pirated DVDs, smuggled exotic pets, gangsterism and all kinds of criminal economic exchanges, some pirated toy you might buy on some street in Brazil or some smuggled India Hindustani plant you might buy in some market or some 'Chinatown' the black market is different again from the so-called Grey market, where people exchange goods without the governments full knowing this causes a loss of tax revenue to governments, a Black Market may be bad for a country in the long term as the overall Black Market economy it probably connects to others criminality maybe even terrorism. Right now Venezuela has become a play ground anarchy experiment for Crypto Currencies, there is the Bitcoin market and the Venezuela government launched an artificial digital coin called the Petro, also exchanged are Monero, Dash, Ethereum and Litecoin.... the Global Cashless society might be coming as currencies of the world collapse....why watch an economy full collapse into Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe when people can now exchange digital tokens like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, ZetaCash, the Petro etc

Personally I don't believe much in 'bitcoins' I do not believe digital money will save Venezuela, I feel its fake. I think most crypto are scams, they are pyramid ponzi schemes. It was probably ok if you got in early but I don't trust them and in general I do not agree with something that is impossible to touch, grab, smell, see, feel, taste... even if banks of the world have questionable exchanges they still have to issue real currency, real Japanese Yen that you can touch, real Euros, real US Dollars.


As for the 'recent attempt on Maduro's life'....it could be real it could be fake, it could be smoke and mirrors. I imagine just like the coup in Turkey lots of propaganda, disinfo will come from both sides. I do find it interesting however a lot of old links we share in discussions have 404 webpage offline errors or videos are no longer available, free discussions are getting shutdown on the internetz or interwebs now censors the jones infowars type conservative 'truthers' they are all shut down. if everything they wrote and radio talked was rubbish tinfoil headed UFO bullcrap they should be easy to riddicule and debunk, maybe there is some small percentage truth in the conspiracy alternative media would talk?

as for the money flow in the digital virtual venezuela


https://cryptoslate.com/venezuelas-petro-really-cryptocurrency/

https://bitcointalk.org

https://www.dash.org/forum/threads/creating-a-venezuela-dao-to-create-
the-first-dash-nation.39188
/

I'm not sure on this but from what I hear I think there may be something of a digital economic war between a possible more global free market coin called the 'Dash' vs a government backed digital Coin in Venezuela called the 'El Petro' Coin. I also hear the Playstation Xbox style video games have become something of a currency, they exchange tokens for these scifi video games, farm runescape gold, World of Warcraft gold, they exchange virtual coins in these games for real Dollars in the real world.

The real Currency of Venezuelan is the bolívar, it is the poster child for Currency Collapse Hyperinflation. You now have to go around with Trucks of the old Currency just to buy some bread, its worse than toilet paper, people even burn it its like a super inflated peso or lira. By 2018, the bolívar fuerte became so worthless that it was used as confetti during baseball games, weighing scales could no longer convert mass to price and receipts could no longer fit the numbers on their paper. The government basically started just 'printing money' denominations of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, and later I dunno maybe some 250,000 thousand billion million bolívares Dollar Lira Peso fuertes was unveiled to the Venezuelan public


Not even worth the paper it is printed on
that's what I think happened the economy

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Monday, August 13, 2018 11:32 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


JSF ... eight years ago, I undertook a project to bring to the board ALL of the "interventions" that the USA visited upon other nations, starting (as I recall) around 1900. It's not that there weren't others before then, it's just that I had to limit the scope of the project SOMEhow. (And so of course I missed posting about the absolute genocide of Native Americans without which this nation would never have been expanded to its current scope.)

As I recall, there were somewhere on the order of 60 ... possibly more ... instances where the USA destabilized, overthrew, invaded, or in some fashion created "regime change" in other nations, just to gain cheap commodities or to enforce loan collections or, (more lately) to impose the petrodollar. I posted it over three threads. People were BEGGING me to stop because it was just too awful, but people deserve, and need, to know the truth, yanno? I can't find the first two threads, but I was able to locate the third and here it is http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=42912&p=3

Also, Obama's speech at West Point, re-casting our naked aggression against the entire world as some sort of democracy-loving peacekeeping effort. It was a speech that made me want to throw up in my mouth a little bit. We spent some posts referencing those three previous threads, and (since none of could find all of the originals) I posted ... AGAIN ... a compiled list of all of our "interventions" since roughly 1900 .. without the summaries of each "intervention" but the best I was willing to do. (Not about to re-create a multi-week effort.)

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=58149

I bring this up in order to back up my point that S and C America are the cluster-fucks that they are because of REPEATED "intervention" by the United States, in which we overthrew whoever (quite often democratically-elected leaders) in order to prop up juntas and plantation-owners who would do what we* [*bankers and international cartels] wanted them to do: Suppress land reform, kill labor movements, open their banking systems, sell us cheap bananas/silver/copper//oil/canal passage etc etc.

If you want to know the extent of our depredations, we managed to "regime change" in EVERY NATION in S and Central America ... sometimes more than once! .... except Costa Rica, which apparently didn't have anything that we wanted very much. And we are STILL "intervening" all over the world, most notably in the mideast but we just attempted another regime change in Nicaragua and are STILL attempting to overthrow the government of Venezuela (after all, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the WORLD, and Chavez had the temerity to nationalize them!). Right at this very moment, we are waging economic war on Turkey through sanctions and a forex attack on their lira.

It is impossible at this point to know how these nations would have fared without our kindly "assistance", but it is also impossible to deny our hand in making these nations what they are today.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Monday, August 13, 2018 6:27 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


One day I had the insight as to why, for nearly a century, the US had typically overthrown democratically elected governments and backed puppets: it's because foreign democracies can't bring the US guaranteed economic results. Those darn people democratically running their own countries might have their own ideas for their own economies.

Now the new paradigm is to destroy functioning countries we can't control, and leave smoking cluster-fuck ruins in their place. I guess the US has learned if you can't control them, you can always ruin them - so they can't actively defy you.

But with the US running out of foreign countries to export poverty to at the point of a gun, it's taken to cannibalizing its own people for corporate profit.

But YAY AMERICA !!! Patriotism makes everything right.




THUGGER admits it's not about RUSSIA !!! and is, in fact, a witch hunt. "Trump better be innocent of any wrong doing, anywhere, anytime."

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Monday, August 13, 2018 8:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I had a very long and detailed history on US 'intervention' in Venezuela, but a WSJ article from 2003 caused my connection to bonk. Suffice to say that the US has a long and dirty history of supporting brutal leaders, and actively fomenting coups against Chavez,, and perhaps Maduro. It was the WSJ article that laid the 2003 PDVSA strike at the feet of the US that bonked.

In the face of US meddling in such an inauspiciously single-resource economy, it would take someone more skilled than Maduro to overcome the situation.




THUGGER admits it's not about RUSSIA !!! and is, in fact, a witch hunt. "Trump better be innocent of any wrong doing, anywhere, anytime."

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Tuesday, August 14, 2018 11:33 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I'm not sure what that little project did to, or for, others but it had a profound impact on me.

As a teen during Vietnam, I knew that we had a habit of entering into feckless and destructive wars, and of course I checked off Chile, Grenada, Nicaragua, Panama, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq as they were happening in our never-ending quest for global domination. I had heard about our interference in Iran (when we deposed the democratically-elected Mossadegh and installed the Shah) and knew in a general way about our continued interference in nations south of our border.

But looking into each and every instance, and looking up the nations involved, the people involved (Dulles brothers, Kissinger, North etc), the tyrants we installed and especially the number of people killed ... it was relentless. A parade of atrocities that just kept on and on and on. I hadn't realized that there were so many, that it went back so far, and that the reasons always stayed the same: to further the interests of our banks and international corporations, even as far back as 1900.

It made me heartsick, and I'm still heartsick. I love my country, I really do. I would love to see us do better and I know we can, but we need to learn, absorb and accept the painful lessons of history.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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Tuesday, August 14, 2018 1:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh, and cue the spittle and the accusations of LIAR!!! and Russian troll! in 3... 2...1 ...

If you look back at my links, you'll see that Geezer wrongfully called me a "liar" back then too, while lying about his own posts.

But historical facts are historical facts.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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