Firefly Sales Figures & the Future of Serenity by Oxyopia

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Firefly Sales Figures & the Future of Serenity

POSTED BY: OXYOPIA
UPDATED: Tuesday, May 17, 2005 12:07
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Monday, May 16, 2005 10:43 AM

Being both an engineer and unbelievably bored, today at work I decided to make an attempt at figuring out how many copies of the Firefly DVD set have been sold to this date (May 16th, 2005).

My reason for doing so was to guestimate how many fans of the show there are and also put a number on the expected ticket sales occurring on its theatrical release. In addition, I was curious to see how feasible it would be for the movie to make a profit. I was unaware, however, how difficult a task this would prove to accomplish.

Here are the concrete numbers I was able to find:

200,000 = The number of DVD sets sold between December 2003 and May 2004

$40 million = The budget for 'Serenity'

4 million = The supposed number of viewers of the show during original airing

Further information on the subject has not been readily forthcoming.

It has been suggested that in order for the film to be considered a 'success', the movie would have to gross double its cost, meaning $80 million. Setting an arbitrary ticket cost of $8, this would mean that the ticket sales would have to number around 10 million.

I really doubt that the first four months of DVD sales are an accurate assessment of the overall trend (especially with growing international interest and the recent spike in sales centering around the release of the trailer), so I am at a loss as to how to make an accurate projection based on these limited findings.

Does anyone else have some concrete information to share on this subject? I am trying to stay away from hearsay and speculation, so it would be nice to have some solid links to any further information provided.

-Oxy

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'What people call impossible is just stuff they
haven't seen yet...'

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Monday, May 16, 2005 11:36 AM

MISGUIDED BY VOICES

Quote:
Originally posted by Oxyopia:
It has been suggested that in order for the film to be considered a 'success', the movie would have to gross double its cost, meaning $80 million. Setting an arbitrary ticket cost of $8, this would mean that the ticket sales would have to number around 10 million.
Does anyone else have some concrete information to share on this subject? I am trying to stay away from hearsay and speculation, so it would be nice to have some solid links to any further information provided.

The problem is you are dealing with "movie math" which has no grounding in reality nor recognisable formulae.

Only concrete rule is that for most US "tent pole" movies, the US take is about equal to the worldwide take. Therefore, if Serenity were to make "only" $40 million in the US, it would make $80 mill worldwide.

Hitchhikers has nearly made its budget back in the US - it should creep towards $70 million but may find itself squeezed out to an extent that Serenity may not. Its $10 mill over its budget worldwide as of yesterday, so whilst not a smash, its almost in profit for the studio (taking into account some marketing spend) - after a fashion, the DVD release is therefore pure profit.

I don't think its possible to create a formula based on any of the information we know - its all too speculative.

"I threw up on your bed"

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Monday, May 16, 2005 12:57 PM

OXYOPIA

Yeah, I was worried about that. The fuzzy nature of tickets sales and local (US) gross versus international makes for a real difficult predicition.

You are totally correct in that DVD sales are where films make a majority of their profits. I have no doubt that Serenity will sell well on DVD, especially with all the extra goodies they could pack into it.

I am more concerned, however, with decent box office numbers. I realize that the DVD sales alone could warrent a sequel, but I would much rather have a nice turnout come September/October which would guarantee such a possibility.

Until then, though, I guess we are stuck contemplating what could be.

-Oxy

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'What people call impossible is just stuff they
haven't seen yet...'

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Monday, May 16, 2005 1:55 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

I saw HGTTG once. It was a decent flick. I plan on seeing the BDM multiple times, and will bring friends. I dare say that HGTTG didn't have the 'hard core' fans similar to match the Browncoats. Granted, many are fans of both, so I'm not attempting to pit one against the other. However, when it comes to box office sales, I think things will be just fine. Hopefully great!

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

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Monday, May 16, 2005 9:45 PM

EMMA

The thing about HHGTTG is that many hard-core fans (myself included - I own up to 5 versions of each book, plus the radio and tv series) simply refused to see the film. The studios messed with the ideas and characters too much for my liking to even risk polluting my head with their version.

Serenity won't have this to overcome, if it can be marketed well I think it stands to do much better than HH.

extremely dimensionally transcendental

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Monday, May 16, 2005 9:52 PM

JAMIEC

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
I dare say that HGTTG didn't have the 'hard core' fans similar to match the Browncoats.

I would disagree with that; Hitchhiker's fans, after all, have had roughly 25 years to accumulate, compared to Firefly's 3. I think it's just that it was OK, but not spectacular, and not the sort of thing many would go to more than once. Plus, there have been very mixed fan opinions.

There will be some mixed fan opinions on Serenity too (hell, if you go on the browncoats board, you'll see there already are), but I think those are far in the minority. Having seen it already, I can confirm it's one of the most enjoyable cinema experiences I have ever had, and I suspect that I'll see it at least three or four times in the cinema...

'The question seldom addressed is where Medusa had snakes. Underarm hair is an even more embarassing problem when it keeps biting the top of the deodorant bottle.'
-Terry Pratchett

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Monday, May 16, 2005 11:09 PM

SHINY

Quote:
Originally posted by JamieC:
Having seen it already, I can confirm it's one of the most enjoyable cinema experiences I have ever had, and I suspect that I'll see it at least three or four times in the cinema...

Why? You short on coin?

Jayne, your mouth is talkin. Might want to look into that.

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Monday, May 16, 2005 11:39 PM

JAMIEC

I didn't see Jurassic Park or any of the Lord of the Rings films more than four times in the cinema, and I don't think anything else has made me reach those fever pitches of excitement like Firefly has... but more than three or four times? Hmmm, I'll have to see how I feel, but I don't think I'm likely to want to watch *anything* more than that; personal opinion, but anything starts to get stale when viewed too many times consecutively...

'The question seldom addressed is where Medusa had snakes. Underarm hair is an even more embarassing problem when it keeps biting the top of the deodorant bottle.'
-Terry Pratchett

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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 12:03 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by JamieC:
Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
I dare say that HGTTG didn't have the 'hard core' fans similar to match the Browncoats.

I would disagree with that; Hitchhiker's fans, after all, have had roughly 25 years to accumulate, compared to Firefly's 3. I think it's just that it was OK, but not spectacular, and not the sort of thing many would go to more than once. Plus, there have been very mixed fan opinions.

Because of HGTTG's appeal, and how it didn't translate onto the big screen for so many of its fans is what I was getting at. A friend of mine who I showed the Serenity trailer to went out and bought the DVD that day and really likes it now. When I told her about HGTTG, she said she'd pass on it. Seems British humor isn't for everyone. I enjoyed it, but as you pointed out, the movie didn't do the book justice.

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 1:52 AM

WHOISRIVER

Quote:
I dare say that HGTTG didn't have the 'hard core' fans similar to match the Browncoats.

HGTTG has more of a 'hard core' fan base, if anything, than Serenity - it's been around 25 odd years.

JamieC, I'm the £175 train ticket person, by the way!

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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 3:32 AM

STAGGERLY

Even after becoming familiar with Firefly on DVD, I find the trailer inaccessible. And beyond that, neither sci-fi nor westerns have been all that popular in years (decades, in westerns' case). For it to be a success I think it'll have to tap into the anime crowd, but that seems unlikely to me.

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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 12:07 PM

MISGUIDED BY VOICES

Quote:
Originally posted by Staggerly:
Even after becoming familiar with Firefly on DVD, I find the trailer inaccessible. And beyond that, neither sci-fi nor westerns have been all that popular in years (decades, in westerns' case). For it to be a success I think it'll have to tap into the anime crowd, but that seems unlikely to me.

Not so sure on that - there will be other trailers for other crowds in the months to come. I'm hoping that over here it might get some front covers on the SFX and maybe even Total Film.

Plus there are the great unknowns - maybe The Inside will be mediocre and become the biggest show this season - please aim low Tim!

Suddenly you have people coming to see "that movie with that guy, the one off that show".

Whatever the first weekend's numbers, I would love it if we can keep them there or thereabouts, instead of that 40-60% drop that usuallu happens.

"I threw up on your bed"

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