Serenity Opening Weekend (no spoilers) by Barclay

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Serenity Opening Weekend (no spoilers)

POSTED BY: BARCLAY
UPDATED: Friday, July 29, 2005 09:51
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Thursday, July 28, 2005 2:03 PM

So, I was conversing with a (now former) friend who was doubting the strength of the Browncoats. I started running through the numbers, 43,000 fans signed up to the official site, 200,000 DVDs sold as of over a year ago, and, to me, the most important figure, 1.6 million viewers of Serenity on scifi last Friday.

So, I started to extrapolate an estimate for Serenity's opening weekend.

Say we take the 1.6 million people who watched Serenity Part 1 on SciFi, and assume they all go to see Serenity the BDM. And let's also assume they all bring a friend (not a stretch, I am, in essence, bringing at least 10 friends to see Serenity, and I'm sure we can all count the number of converts we have and try to account for my theory, but let's not hijack the thread on the first post).

So, say these 3.2 million people each buy a $7 ticket (again, an average, as cinemas charge vastly different ticket prices), that gives us a $22.4 million opening weekend for Serenity.

As I see it, this is a decently conservative number, but considering the budget was but $40 million, we'd be in line for a sequel, especially considering the strong secondary market.

So maybe here's the real question, what are the odds Universal makes back the budget of Serenity opening weekend?

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Thursday, July 28, 2005 4:09 PM

CHOLLETT

That, my friend, all depends on how well we've done with our converting since the 200 000 figure a year and a half ago.
I myself have converted 14 people to date, one of which in particular just got the DVDs yesterday or today, and has already finished disc 4.
If the average Browncoat has converted even a quarter of that, i have a good feeling.
Let's not forget converts that have converted others who have converted others and so on.

I like to think there's a good chance.

"When your miracle gets here, you just pound this button once." -Alan Tudyk, in a message to Joss with the packaged button, about the Firefly movie

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Thursday, July 28, 2005 4:58 PM

ZOIC

You should also factor in the fact that there will be many Firefly virgins seeing Serenity, that will have been attracted to the movie, because of the poitive buz and the'kick ass' new trailer and TV spots.

http://www.frequencysite.com

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Friday, July 29, 2005 6:23 AM

BATMARLOWE

I like our chances of 40 mil over opening day. I just have a gut feeling it will happen (and this is coming from a dyed-in-wool pessimist). But I can see it happening.

And if your opening weekend estimate is correct, then it'll probably make at least 40 mil over the course of two weeks. One of the reasons being most Browncoasts will go at least twice. And if it does make 40 mill over two weeks, it's likely it'll be held-over and then it'll make (at least in terms of gross revenue) a profit.

Then there will be DVD sales and we'll all be buying at least one copy of that.

I see sequelly goodness in our future.

Not that it's any of my business, but why is your friend "former"? I hope it wasn't over SERENITY. I just hate the idea of friendships souring; they're one of the few things that keep us civilized. But some friendships become unhealthy relationships just as some marriages can. Like I said, none of my business.

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Friday, July 29, 2005 6:40 AM

BARCLAY

Quote:

Not that it's any of my business, but why is your friend "former"? I hope it wasn't over SERENITY. I just hate the idea of friendships souring; they're one of the few things that keep us civilized. But some friendships become unhealthy relationships just as some marriages can. Like I said, none of my business.

Ah, my apologies for the misunderstanding. That was merely sarcasm (suggesting that someone who doubted the Browncoats would no longer be my friend). I too share the value of friendship and wouldn't actually disown someone for merely underestimating our forces. Now, someone who dislikes Firefly on the other hand...

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Friday, July 29, 2005 9:51 AM

BATMARLOWE

Glad to hear it. Shoulda thought it could've been sarcasm.

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