Article on Serenity from The-Numbers.com (no spoilers) by JR

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Article on Serenity from The-Numbers.com (no spoilers)

POSTED BY: JR
UPDATED: Saturday, October 8, 2005 15:11
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 9922
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Thursday, October 6, 2005 4:38 AM

Interesting article on Serenity from The-Numbers.com

Quote:

Serenity seemed to have a lot going for it: a rabidly loyal fanbase from the TV series, incredible reviews, and a popular feel that should have made it a big hit. However, the studio may have dropped the ball when it came to marketing the film; they relied on viral marketing and while that was able to get the base excited, but obviously wasn't t able to connect with the average moviegoer, as the film could do no better than $10.1 million. If you were to look for something positive, the per theatre average wasn't bad and the word-of-mouth should be excellent, as it earned a Cinema Score rating of A. Even so, the Fanboy Effect will likely kill this film next weekend and it will have to wait until late in its the home market run to show any kind of profit. On the other hand, the DVD is ranked number two on Amazon.com.

link:
http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=1497

--

When faced with a moral dilemma, just stop and ask yourself; What would StrongBad do?

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 5:37 AM

ICCLEDAMES

Well it all looks a little confusing, all those numbers but erm, it's not looking too good is it?

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 6:02 AM

JAVIDRHO

Quote:
Originally posted by iccledames:
Well it all looks a little confusing, all those numbers but erm, it's not looking too good is it?

What I got from the article is the belief that Universal is partly to blame for the low numbers, due to their gamble in marketing this film. The gamble being viral marketing, and aiming trailers for the fans. I think most of us could (and have) come up with better ideas for trailers in the past few months (and we don't get paid for it).

I hate always blaming the marketing people for low numbers (this goes for both Firefly and Serenity), but maybe Joss's world really is too different for major houses to "get" and therefore market correctly.

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 6:17 AM

BROWNCOAT1

May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one.

We can not discount the historical low #s that the last weekend in September is notorious for either. Few movies have done anything considered remotely well during this time of the year as it is a slow time at the box office.

Seems that many factors are playing roles in the box office returns for the BDM.

__________________________________________

"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."

Richmond, VA & surrounding area Firefly Fans:

http://tv.groups.yahoo.com/group/richmondbrowncoats/

http://www.richmondbrowncoats.org

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 6:24 AM

JPURVES

The point is still the same. Go see it again this weekend, bring all your friends, and tell everyone else you know to go see it.

"2 For the Money" with McConaughey and Pacino is going to be a big draw, so only our influence will keep Serenity up towards the top.

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 6:39 AM

LIVINGIMPAIRED

While, of course, box office is still important, and I will be going again this weekend and taking friends, I don't know that there's much more we can do at this point. Serenity will likely share the same fate as Firefly: It's real performance will come on DVD.

As I see it, it will be that, and not necessarily box office results that will ditermine Serenity's fate. Consider the following:

1) Movies make more overseas than they do in the US. Firelfy is a TV show that did well overseas, and Serenity is the type of movie that typically does well overseas: Action and sci fi.

2) Serenity is not the only experiment in marketing this year. King Kong is going to have a unique distribution pattern, as they're releasing it on DVD the same day it comes out to theatres. Theatres are dying and the studios know it. If Serentiy kicks ass on DVD like Firefly did, then box office might be a mood point.

________________

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 1:23 PM

SLGN

Quote:
...the DVD is ranked number two on Amazon.com

And that would be FF dvds. I was curious if they meant pre-orders and Uni was doing an early-dvd-release... but no, it's Firefly. And it's great that FF keeps selling (we knew it would come Serenity).

Got Scape? Farscape now in syndicaton on Erp near you! http://www.farwhat.com/

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 1:26 PM

BAPTISMO

What is the "Fanboy effect" and why should it kill things?

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 7:39 PM

CRANSTON

Quote:

1) Movies make more overseas than they do in the US. Firelfy is a TV show that did well overseas, and Serenity is the type of movie that typically does well overseas: Action and sci fi.

Gotta disagree with you here. If you look at Box Office Mojo's stats on all of the movies "similar" to Serenity, the majority of them made less overseas than in the US -- many of them substantially less.

I know I'm being pessimistic, but I can't help but see Serenity making maybe $30 million domestically, with maybe $15-20 overseas, for a $45-50 million worldwide total. And that's not good. But I really, really hope I'm wrong.

And I know that Universal's getting a lot of bashing for its marketing strategy now, but I have to say: if Serenity had opened on its original date in April, we wouldn't be in this situation. The marketing sank the film.

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 8:05 PM

THEPYRO

I keep hearing "the original date of April" I just know i love Firefly and Serenity, but i dont know all about that kinda stuff? are we talking April 06 or 05? if its 05, f no it would do better, 06 yes i do think so, they didn't give enough time for people to wait for it....and as much as i wanted to see it, as bad as i did, i would have rather waited and saw it do better....now i might be way off base here if we're talking 05.....help? The other thing i think they shoulda done is put more of Joss's name and Buffy and Angel in the marketing....any one disagree? But on the other side, we just dont want the Buffy fans coming, cause i know alot of people that think that is the stupidest show ever and then they'd be bias against Serenity....

The Pyro

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Thursday, October 6, 2005 10:48 PM

SHADOWBLADE

Quote:
Originally posted by LivingImpaired:
While, of course, box office is still important, and I will be going again this weekend and taking friends, I don't know that there's much more we can do at this point. Serenity will likely share the same fate as Firefly: It's real performance will come on DVD.

What about some chatter I've heard earlier in the rummor mill about re-launching the series, but in a direct to video basis. I also heard fox was going to do this with 24

GO SEE THE GORRAM MOVIE!!!

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Friday, October 7, 2005 2:48 AM

NAGRATH

Well, Having a 2-year old, it's not easy to get to the movie. I have the opportunity this weekend, as I am visiting my folks on the east end of Long Island...and the BDM is NOT playing anywhere nearby! I am not impressed by the distribution of this film and I REALLY think it is one of the main reasons for the lousy numbers. In my home town (and indeed, in all of upper Westchester/lower Putnam county NY) it seems to be playing in ONE theater, and it is by no means the best one. Meanwhile, the Corpse Bride is showing on something like 3 screens at the nearby 10-or 12-plex with the stadium seating and new theaters. That's where the BDM should be! Did I say I was pissed?! For all their "viral marketing" universal seems to have really put the kiss-of-death on this one. Open it WIDE, people! I haven't seen a movie with reviews this good in YEARS!

Nagrath, Giant Mantis of Down Below
(OK, wrong show, but hey, all the good BDM nicknames were taken...)

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Friday, October 7, 2005 4:19 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by baptismo:
What is the "Fanboy effect" and why should it kill things?

To quote the source:

Quote:

Fanboy Effect
Certain films have a very loyal following, usually due to their source material. These people will flock to the film as soon as it opens, either over the opening weekend or, more likely, opening night. This inflates these numbers, reducing both the Internal Multiplier and the overall Multiplier.

In a nutshell, this means that they believe the fans will only go to the opening weekend. What they do not realize is that a whole lot of browncoats are planning to repeat (or beat!) last week's numbers by flooding the theaters again weekend.

I say lets blow 'em away a second time - that will really get the media talking. Those of us older than 40 remember that the original Star Wars also started out slowly in the summer of 1977, then grew to incredible numbers within a few weeks. I believe it can happen again in 2005.

--

When faced with a moral dilemma, just stop and ask yourself; What would StrongBad do?

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:02 PM

GREGGALLINSON

Quote:
Originally posted by JavidRho:
The gamble being viral marketing, and aiming trailers for the fans.

Some people have said the trailers were aimed at the fans, but really, I thought they were dreadful and didn't reflect the spirit of Firefly on either the big or small screen. The *only* two reasons I saw the movie were a) I loved the TV series and b) my mom flew into town from California partly for my brother's birthday and partly to see Serenity on opening day with me. If not for the "obligations" of being a Firefly fan and having a special reason to see the movie opening day, I likely would've waited a few weeks to see it, or maybe even just skipped it until it was on cable. Nearly everything about the trailers and posters made it look like Joss had been backed into making Firefly as "mainstream" and bland as humanly possible in a vain effort to appeal to a "mass audience". Clearly, he didn't, and I'm very happy that I did see Serenity opening day despite Universal's best efforts to dissuade me from doing so.

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:10 PM

NEVETEXTOR

Quote:
Originally posted by Cranston:
And I know that Universal's getting a lot of bashing for its marketing strategy now, but I have to say: if Serenity had opened on its original date in April, we wouldn't be in this situation. The marketing sank the film.

Bull. If it had gotten its original April release, it would have been swamped by Star Wars, and would have had no time to build. Especially since Star Wars was orchestrating a major international release, meaning that Serenity would have been dead in the water in foreign markets unless Universal was willing to pour in a massive marketing push of their own - way more than the first movie in a sci-fi franchise from a first time film director with no big stars deserved. It was toast in April, and the delay to September did it no harm.

And what was wrong with the marketing? I was seeing a Serenity ad every show I watched the two weeks before release. I think Fox aired more Serenity ads than it ever did Firefly ads.

If this movie fails - something I'm still not convinced it'll do (We've been in far tighter jams as a fandom), it'll fail because the concept isn't a winner. That's not a knock on Firefly - still my favorite TV show of all time, nor a knock on the movie - I loved it. But sometimes good things are meant for smaller audiences. There may just not be millions of potential Firefly fans in the world. It may be a taste that only a few of us have. And that's not Universal's fault, it's not Joss's fault, and it's not our fault. It's just life.

Either way, we got 14 episodes, three comics, and a movie - hell of a lot more than some fandoms get. I call it a win. And, frankly, I'm gonna bet that we're not gonna win friends at Universal by blasting them for killing our movie. They took a big gamble on us - adapting a flopped TV series to a movie. We should be thankful they gave us that chance, and we should turn out this weekend and do what we can to make it worth their while. But we sure as hell shouldn't engage in stupid finger-pointing.

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:11 PM

GREGGALLINSON

Quote:
Originally posted by jpurves:
"2 For the Money" with McConaughey and Pacino is going to be a big draw, so only our influence will keep Serenity up towards the top.

Quite frankly, I'm a little more scared about the Cameron Diaz/Toni Collette chick flick. I hadn't heard of Two for the Money 'til a few weeks ago, and the trailers are rather cryptic.

Ah well- I'm in the middle of a nine-day work "week", but I'm going to try to get to the theatre at least once this weekend- probably Sunday night, after the Bears lose...

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:20 PM

RAKARR

I got to disagree. I never heard of Firefly when I first saw the trailer of Serenity. I was at a movie theatre to watch some thing (can't remember) and it showed the trailer of Serenity in the previews. After it was done I said to myself, "I'm gonna go see that!". Right away from the first look I wanted to go see the movie. Then I find out it had a TV show called Firefly and that Scifi would be showing it friday nights. Well to keep it short, I ended up here as a fellow Browncoat. That is from just the trailer when I first saw it. If it had that kind of effect on me, I don't see how that is bad advertising at all.

I think the movie has been doing just fine in theatres. We now at the 2nd weekend. Movie should do good this weekend. Really I'm not worried one bit of not getting another Firefly movie and/or season. Even if things take a turn for the worse again, I'm guessing we will get atleast a book(s) from Joss. He has a story to tell in this 'verse. I strongly believe nothing is going to stop him untill his story is finished, or untill he is dead. I'd be just as happy to have him write a Firefly book as I would to get another movie or season.

"I'm a leaf in the wind. Watch as I soa-"

Big Damn Fansite - Where the Browncoats gather.
http://www.freewebs.com/bigdamnfansite

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:24 PM

GREGGALLINSON

Quote:
Originally posted by Nevetextor:
Bull. If it had gotten its original April release, it would have been swamped by Star Wars, and would have had no time to build.

How so? Serenity would've gotten a three-week jump on Star Wars. Rather than being "swamped", it could've done what The Matrix did in 1999. Remember, THAT was released a few weeks before The Phantom Menace and still managed to more than hold its own, due in large part to the fact that it premiered a few weeks before Star Wars and was able to build up a buzz. The Mummy also opened at around the same time and it was a hit too. And the Phantom Menace, believe it or not, was a much bigger deal than Revenge of the Sith- TPM didn't suffer from lowered expectations and it was a true event, being the first new Star Wars film in 16 years.

Quote:
It was toast in April, and the delay to September did it no harm.

We can't really say one way or another- maybe it would've made less money in April than it did now- but moving it from the start of the summer blockbuster season to the month where bad movies go to die certainly got my spider-sense tingling.

Look at it this way: in April, genre fans were starved. It was the first winter in years where there hadn't been a Lord of the Rings film, and while Star Wars was right around the corner, Batman Begins and War of the Worlds were months away. Quite frankly, if you were just a casual genre fan looking for far-out action, you got your fill over the summer with those three movies or stuff like Fantastic Four or Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. Plus gas was cheaper in April...

Quote:
And what was wrong with the marketing? I was seeing a Serenity ad every show I watched the two weeks before release. I think Fox aired more Serenity ads than it ever did Firefly ads.

The quantity was OK (if not spectacular); the quality left much to be desired.

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:49 PM

CSSTROWBRIDGE

I know what you mean, I don't like blaming the marketing either for most of the time, but I think this is one of the times that it is valid. There is nothing to explain the low box office numbers except the lack of audience awarness.

On a side note, I think the lack of advertising is what hurt the movie business this year. Studios became so convinced that people wanted to see movies that they don't have to advertise them. Take Star Wars for example, it is easily the most well known movie coming out but that didn't stop the studio from flooding the airwaves with adds. People are lazy, most of them won't go out of their way learn about movies that are coming out.

There are also other times when a movie is too unusual for traditional marketting techniques and since the marketing departs of large studios are rarely known for their imagination, the film will suffer.

One last thing, you can't imagine how much this is boosting my ego talking about an article I wrote on a movie I loved.

C.S.Strowbridge
News Editor / Movie Reviewer / Talentless Hack
http://members.shaw.ca/csstrowbridge/MainPage.htm

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Friday, October 7, 2005 7:49 PM

CRANSTON

Quote:
Originally posted by Nevetextor:
Bull. If it had gotten its original April release, it would have been swamped by Star Wars, and would have had no time to build. Especially since Star Wars was orchestrating a major international release, meaning that Serenity would have been dead in the water in foreign markets unless Universal was willing to pour in a massive marketing push of their own - way more than the first movie in a sci-fi franchise from a first time film director with no big stars deserved. It was toast in April, and the delay to September did it no harm..

I disagree. Serenity would not have gotten "swamped" by Star Wars -- it would have had a solid 3.5 weeks in theaters (April 22 to May 19) before Star Wars premiered. That's plenty of "time to build." It would have been a big SF action film (at least, it would have been marketed that way), and would have been one of the first of the Summer season. It would have been, as Joss gleefully said when they announced the April 22 release date, the "Matrix slot." Looking back at the April release schedule, its competitors would have been:

Opening weekend (April 22): A Lot Like Love, King's Ransom, and The Interpreter.

April 29: Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, XXX: State of the Union

May 6: Crash, House of Wax, Kingdom of Heaven

May 13: Kicking and Screaming, Mindhunters, Monster-in-Law, Unleashed

So, there would have been no action or SF movie competing with Serenity on opening weekend, when it would have been (in my opinion) much more likely to make a bigger splash than it did at the end of September, and it wouldn't have had much strong competition in later weeks. Obviously we may never agree on a hypothetical scenario, but it just seems to me that Serenity would have been poised to kick off the summer season and have a strong opening weekend -- certainly better than the anemic $10 million and change that it just made.

Quote:
And what was wrong with the marketing? I was seeing a Serenity ad every show I watched the two weeks before release. I think Fox aired more Serenity ads than it ever did Firefly ads..

I, on the other hand, saw exactly one TV ad before the movie came out. But marketing isn't just quantity -- it's the content of the ads and the overall approach too. The marketing in general did not, to my eyes, create an impression that would have interested me if I didn't already know and love Firefly. The poster (and newspaper ads) are nondescript to the point of obscurity -- a head shot of a surly looking man, and a medium shot of a young woman. Sure, there's a tiny spaceship at the bottom, but what the hell is the movie about? And I just wasn't hearing much buzz about the movie except on the FF boards.

Quote:
Either way, we got 14 episodes, three comics, and a movie - hell of a lot more than some fandoms get. I call it a win. And, frankly, I'm gonna bet that we're not gonna win friends at Universal by blasting them for killing our movie. They took a big gamble on us - adapting a flopped TV series to a movie. We should be thankful they gave us that chance, and we should turn out this weekend and do what we can to make it worth their while. But we sure as hell shouldn't engage in stupid finger-pointing.

And I actually agree with everything you say here. I'm not blasting Universal as a studio, as an organization, or as the source of a damn good movie that (it now appears) wraps up a damn good TV series. I'm criticizing what I see as mistakes in marketing strategy alone. They took a gamble in moving the film to the mid-Fall release wasteland, and of focusing so much effort on a (radical and intriguing) viral marketing strategy. But it didn't work. The strategy failed miserably, and I think that the release date was a big part of it. And just because I'm grateful that Universal had the guts and the vision to resurrect something near and dear to me doesn't mean I have to fawn over every aspect of the enterprise, or to "make friends" at Universal. The movie's great, but the marketing strategy didn't come through for it.

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Friday, October 7, 2005 8:04 PM

CSSTROWBRIDGE

Speaking of not failing, the Firefly DVD jumped up to 18th on this week's chart, (which I'm writing about right now). If Universal got any of that money they'd be ordering a sequel right now.

On the other hand, this bodes very well for the film's chances on the home market, and Universal does get a piece of that.

C.S.Strowbridge
News Editor / Movie Reviewer / Talentless Hack

http://members.shaw.ca/csstrowbridge/MainPage.htm

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Friday, October 7, 2005 8:36 PM

NEVETEXTOR

Quote:
Originally posted by Cranston:
April 29: Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy,

Wait, Hitchhiker's was a week after it's original release? And then Star Wars two later?

That's a rough combo. Hitchhiker's would, I think, be extremely likely to do a number on Serenity's box office - I think a lot of us would, in all honesty, be hesitant to return the next weekend with Hitchhiker's looming. I know I probably would have seen Hitchhiker's over it on a second weekend.

So Hitchhiker's to stunt the momentum, and then Star Wars two later? With a flood of Star Wars advertising kicking in and taking up large amounts of the genre news? (Because, let's remember, newspapers still think of things in terms of "Well, we can put one sci-fi movie on the front page of the Entertainment section this month. Oh, Star Wars is coming out - guess it gets the coverage.")

It was a rough season. Maybe Serenity could have survived in it. The fact that it's having trouble staying afloat against Flightplan, though, does suggest the possibility that this just isn't a hit. Some movies aren't - quality and box office success are often unrelated.

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Friday, October 7, 2005 9:04 PM

CSSTROWBRIDGE

Quote:
Originally posted by JR:
Quote:
Originally posted by baptismo:
What is the "Fanboy effect" and why should it kill things?

To quote the source:
Quote:

Fanboy Effect
Certain films have a very loyal following, usually due to their source material. These people will flock to the film as soon as it opens, either over the opening weekend or, more likely, opening night. This inflates these numbers, reducing both the Internal Multiplier and the overall Multiplier.

In a nutshell, this means that they believe the fans will only go to the opening weekend. What they do not realize is that a whole lot of browncoats are planning to repeat (or beat!) last week's numbers by flooding the theaters again weekend.

It's not that only the Fanboys, (and Fangirls) will go, it's just that there's so many they throw off the usual pattern. It doesn't mean the film will earn any less, it just means it will earn it over a shorter time. And that's actually quite good since studios earn a higher percentage of the opening weekend take than from week six, for instance.

A film that's earning reviews this good should have strong word-of-mouth, which will have the opposite effect. However, when these two forces are at work the Fanboy Effect almost always wins.

I'd love for this film to last in the top ten for the next month or so, but I don't think that will be. On the other hand, this film should do amazing business on the home market and The Transporter earned a sequel and it earned about the same amount of money domestically at this point.

C.S.Strowbridge
News Editor / Movie Reviewer / Talentless Hack
http://members.shaw.ca/csstrowbridge/MainPage.htm

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 3:11 PM

PURPLEZOT

I saw it twice on Wednesday. A friend, a fan whom I converted, came with me on the second showing. Incredible movie! All the best elements of the Firefly and then some!!

Unfortunately I think the article is correct. I haven't seen any TV spots since the BDM debut on the 30th. I would have thought there would have been more of a push especially coming up toward the all telling 2nd weekend. I know a few folks who went last night (Friday) and a couple who went tonight.

For my part, I did leave the theater with a feeling of closure. I can be satisfied with things the way they are. That said, I still want a sequel or 5 very badly. I want see more stories from this 'verse.

The Zot

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