Friday (2nd week) estimates--WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE! by StakeTheLurk

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Friday (2nd week) estimates--WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE!

POSTED BY: STAKETHELURK
UPDATED: Monday, October 10, 2005 05:14
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 29432
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Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:12 AM

http://whedonesque.com/comments/8408

HSX estimates place the Friday box office at $1.56 million (9th place), a 59% drop from last Friday. This is bad. Very bad. One of the posters over on Whedonesque put it best:

Quote:
Originally posted by gossi on Whedonesque:
The fact with the browncoat thing is, as I keep saying over and over: there really aren't THAT many 'hard core' fans. Yes, there's a lot, but not as many as people may make out. Those LiveJournal bloggers? They'll go once and enjoy it. As they should.

The other thing is this: I've been running around online saying to everybody "Look, you NEED to go see this, it's in real trouble" and people respond with "Numbers are ilrelevant! You can't stop the signal!" and such.

The skimmy is this: Serenity is a commercial property of Universal Studios. If those hardcore fans understand anything, it needs to be this: it's not pulling the numbers it needs to. If they want to boost the movie, now IS the time. It's not a case of fancy slogans to dismiss the problem. It's a case of money. Money speaks volumes.

We have to get back in theaters today and tomorrow! Bring everyone you can! Buy extra tickets! Talk it up! Post guerrilla marketing! We are in trouble, folks, so let’s do something!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:18 AM

STAKETHELURK

Note: It's not over yet. We just can't drop on Saturday. We turn up in force, tonight and tomorrow, we might come through okay. And over in the UK, Serenity has opened at #2. But we are not flying smooth. We need to get back out there this weekend if we want to keep flying. I'm going tonight and tomorrow. If the numbers are still bad tommorrow, I'm thinking of buying a ticket to every matinee showing on Sunday at a local theater. This is serious. we have to act now.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:26 AM

INEVITABLEBETRAYAL

Bump

_______________________________________________
I wish I had a magical wish-granting plank.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 8:34 AM

STAKETHELURK

*bump*

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:26 AM

MARTING

I have to comment at Universal for this. This is a marketing disaster. Way to ruin a film!

Ok, so here's my view:

Serenity has gotten a whole load of praising reviews. Serenity also opened in only 2000 theaters. So the first week was a bit dissapointing, mainly due to lack of interest which is caused by lack of good advertisement.

Now, the best way to go into the second weekend then is EXPANDING the number of theaters to 2750, ADVERTISING it EXCESSIVELY with use of the PRAISING REVIEWS.

That is the best way. Because a lot of situations like this would have happened then;

"hey did you know that that movie Serenity is now opening in out nearby theater as well?"

"-yeah i heard that, i saw it advertised yesterday and i heard its getting amazing reviews and it looks interesting, also i have a mate in los angeles that saw it and he loved it"

"well shall we go see it this night then"

"-sounds like a plan"

This was THE opportunity to launch it to a wider public as something new, fresh and appealing.

This weekend was Universals' second chance to do it right and they BLEW it. But looking from their past movies like cinderella they have a reputation of managing good movies to have poor box office results.

Not to mention the RELEASE DATE.. April 22.. hardly no movies to be seen, and the hype around it seemed bigger then. Now, especially in the second week a whole lot of competition. Atleast 3 times more than on april 22.. also this is the worst time of the year for good movies to do well.. this would have done so much better in november

ive made 7 people to buy the firefly dvd and they all loved it, i wished that a whole lot of people would be introduced with this great universe but sadly.. it wont happen.. not in theaters atleast

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:45 AM

BROWNTROUSERS

Its not fair, i guess this means Serenity flopped.

Universal.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:49 AM

MACBAKER

I can't figure out why people seem to be staying away from this movie in droves. I really do think it has to be Universal's poor promotion.

I'd given some thought to movin' off the edge -- not an ideal location -- thinkin' a place in the middle.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 10:09 AM

CALLIOPE79

It may not be much and we certainly can't afford to do it twice this weekend, but my sister and I went to see it last Friday and have already decided to see it again tonight. I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic and hope that tonight's number's will make up for last night's seemingly dismal performance. Though, as many have already said... it's not ALL about the U.S. box office numbers. We still have international performance to consider, as well as DVD sales once the theatre run is through. I'm not giving up yet... it's far from over

~*~ Cheryl
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Saturday, October 8, 2005 10:19 AM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
Its not fair, i guess this means Serenity flopped.

Hey, save the tears and recriminations until after the DVD release. This thing hasn’t flopped yet, it’s just looking pretty rough--so we need to take action. We can still get through this, if we work hard. In another thread, Jasonzzz had some good suggestions:

Quote:
Originally posted by Jasonzzz:
So, here's the plan.

1. I saw in another thread someone made up Guerilla posters. (STL’s EDIT: 11th Hour has them on her site: http://the11thhour.home.att.net/) Get that, print about 4 dozen copies.
2. Right now, go down to the local theatre that's showing it, go around to all of the eateries and paste up 1 or 2 of these things outside each of them.
3. Go to the theatre and post some up near the booths, etc.
4. Buy a ticket for the show - maybe 1 or 2 for each showing if you've got the cash to spare - put it on credit card if you could.
5. Stand near the booth, and give away that ticket(s).
6. Keep station around the ticket booth and influence the people who appear to be trying to make a decision on what to watch.

Sunday night turn outs tend to be poor because people are settling in and getting ready for work the next day. TONIGHT is pretty much it for the weekend!!!

Go do this. Sitting here typing on the keyboard and wringing hands isn't going to do much... Go down to the theatres + restaurants and hangout and just "help" people out with their movie decision.

So get out there, browncoats, and do everything you can!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 10:36 AM

JASONZZZ

Is that including the UK opening cum int'l takes? or just US... It's in even worst shape if that's the completely overall total

Quote:
Originally posted by StakeTheLurk:
http://whedonesque.com/comments/8408

HSX estimates place the Friday box office at $1.56 million (9th place), a 59% drop from last Friday. This is bad. Very bad. One of the posters over on Whedonesque put it best:

Quote:
Originally posted by gossi on Whedonesque:
The fact with the browncoat thing is, as I keep saying over and over: there really aren't THAT many 'hard core' fans. Yes, there's a lot, but not as many as people may make out. Those LiveJournal bloggers? They'll go once and enjoy it. As they should.

The other thing is this: I've been running around online saying to everybody "Look, you NEED to go see this, it's in real trouble" and people respond with "Numbers are ilrelevant! You can't stop the signal!" and such.

The skimmy is this: Serenity is a commercial property of Universal Studios. If those hardcore fans understand anything, it needs to be this: it's not pulling the numbers it needs to. If they want to boost the movie, now IS the time. It's not a case of fancy slogans to dismiss the problem. It's a case of money. Money speaks volumes.
We have to get back in theaters today and tomorrow! Bring everyone you can! Buy extra tickets! Talk it up! Post guerrilla marketing! We are in trouble, folks, so let’s do something!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 10:44 AM

SAGRILARUS

There isn't going to be a sequel. The film has damaged the franchise too badly.

Sag.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 10:47 AM

BELASERA

Hey sweet peeps relax!
Serenity was #2 for the week, second only to Ms. Foster and her giant crazy plane.
That is NOT failure, just less than we'd like to see. Give it some time, see it a few more times, and we'll see what the folks at 'Versal have to say.
#2, I'll take that if I have to, may even get a big foamy finger in the shape of a 2.

"I'll be in my bunk."

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:04 AM

JASONZZZ

Well, if apathy is prevalent ... me predicts that Serenity will end up at around #10 for 2nd weekend... It's unlikely that
it will sink past 10 pass all 3 of these...

Into the Blue
Greatest game ever played
Just like Heaven.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:17 AM

FLYINGTAMS

Quote:
We have to get back in theaters today and tomorrow! Bring everyone you can!

Yes bring others, its not enough the fans go - there are NOT enough fans to make that much of a difference - it needs to spread to new people.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:22 AM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
Originally posted by Jasonzzz:
Is that including the UK opening cum int'l takes? or just US... It's in even worst shape if that's the completely overall total

The 1.5 million is just the domestic take, and right now it’s just estimates based on a survey of selected theaters. We won’t be sure until Monday (?) what the exact weekend figures are; could be more, could be less, but last week they were spot on. In the UK, it’s opened at #2, just behind Pride & Prejudice, with a good chance at #1 weekend spot overall--which is pretty damn shiny. I haven’t seen the UK numbers yet; gossi over on Whedonesque apparently has contacts with the international distributor, which is how he came by this information. Still, the UK typically makes up only 10% of the total gross--a reasonable fraction, but the brunt of it falls on the US to fill out. Plus, next week Wallace & Gromit hits UK theaters, where it will no doubt crush everything else. So let’s not disappoint here in the US! Hit those theaters, people!

Quote:
Originally posted by Belasera:
#2, I'll take that if I have to, may even get a big foamy finger in the shape of a 2.

I agree, Belasera, #2 is a nice place to be--except we’re no longer there. We’re number nine. And while I didn’t expect us to stay #2, I had hoped we’d at least stick around somewhere in the top 5 for a little while longer. So, while I appreciate your optimism, things are a bit more desperate than you presume. Sure, we’re not doomed (yet), but we’re still in bad shape. So get back to the theaters people (and bring non-fans with you)! In this election, you vote with your wallet and nobody's stopping you from stuffing the ballot box!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:25 AM

JASONZZZ

I don't know if just bringing people with you will be enough... I really think the best strategy is to station outside of theatres and really actively influence the undecided... I mean, they are already there to watch a movie, they just haen't decided yet... That's a lot better having to try and get people off their duffs.

Quote:
Originally posted by FlyingTams:
Quote:
We have to get back in theaters today and tomorrow! Bring everyone you can!

Yes bring others, its not enough the fans go - there are NOT enough fans to make that much of a difference - it needs to spread to new people.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:41 AM

BLINKER

Here's a new promotional tool I've been hammering out. Fifty critics wax rhapsodic over the BDM:

http://slidersweb.net/serenity

Next up, a printable version suited to handouts and postering. (Although if anyone else wants to make one first, I'd be thrilled. It'll probably turn out a lot better than mine.)

_________
Sliders: Gate Haven - http://slidersweb.net/blinker

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 11:58 AM

3HEADEDMONKEY

Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have to comment at Universal for this. This is a marketing disaster. Way to ruin a film!

ugh. first Firefly gets cancelled and everyone blames Fox and tells them to go f*** themselves. This was understandable i guess, but universal was kind enough to give joss whedon full reins on a movie and now since the movie isnt doing well in the BO, you guys are blaming Universal now??? omg....

sometimes movies just dont do well in the BO. no reason to go blaming universal for it. they already did alot for us already.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:01 PM

EMBERS

Quote:
Originally posted by BrownTrousers:

Its not fair, i guess this means Serenity flopped.

Universal.

if you'll notice in other threads,
some wonderful films started out weak,
and went on to become well respected films...
the great reviews 'Serenity' got shows it is NOT a flop!

We were #2 last weekend,
and altho some predictions say it was #9 last night,
there are others that have it at #8:
http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.html
ttp:// www.showbizdata.com/dailybox.cfm

also it opened REALLY strongly in the UK,
it was only a couple points out of first place,
edged out by Pride & Prejudice...

If 'Serenity' does well over-seas
and then does great DVDs sales,
we could STILL eventually get our sequel....

actually if we can hang on to most of our numbers then we might still build an audience here in the US.

It is not Universal's fault that this film has a vague title & no stars,
they have had faith in it. and we shouldn't call it a 'flop' just because it hasn't been a box office block buster.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:12 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

I agree. Blaming Universal is just a grasp by an angry, defeated person, trying to find someone to blame.

Universal bankrolled this movie against all logic. Universal let Joss do what he wanted. Universal gave us pre-screenings. Universal bought so much advertising I saw the trailer on TV at least a dozen times. I've seen it on the web even more.

Don't kick Universal. This little 40 million dollar movie based on a failed TV show has gotten much more attention than logic would allow.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:13 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 3HeadedMonkey:
Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have to comment at Universal for this. This is a marketing disaster. Way to ruin a film!

ugh. first Firefly gets cancelled and everyone blames Fox and tells them to go f*** themselves. This was understandable i guess, but universal was kind enough to give joss whedon full reins on a movie and now since the movie isnt doing well in the BO, you guys are blaming Universal now??? omg....

sometimes movies just dont do well in the BO. no reason to go blaming universal for it. they already did alot for us already.

I gotta agree with you too, I don't think people should be blaming Universal so much. This film shouldn't exist! Can't people see that? We're very very lucky that it does, and more than lucky than to have seen it become a #2 movie rather than the straight to DVD release that looked likely a year or so back.

Taking into account the low budget as well, Serenity is a succesful movie. And people are saying it flopped! I wanted a huger success as much as the next person, but we shouldn't be disappointed that the film couldn't make the last few steps of a very long journey.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:27 PM

MARTING

Quote:
Originally posted by AnthonyT:
I agree. Blaming Universal is just a grasp by an angry, defeated person, trying to find someone to blame.

Universal bankrolled this movie against all logic. Universal let Joss do what he wanted. Universal gave us pre-screenings. Universal bought so much advertising I saw the trailer on TV at least a dozen times. I've seen it on the web even more.

Don't kick Universal. This little 40 million dollar movie based on a failed TV show has gotten much more attention than logic would allow.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

Let me point out clearly that I'm greatful that Universal made this movie possible, however im commenting their marketing capabilities. I have seen absolutely NO marketing at all in the week before release.. it's like the whole movie didn't exist. That, while i got absolutely loaded with adverts for A History Of Violence.

Everything Universal did sounded very promising up till the actual week of release.. then it went silent.. why? i havent got a clue..

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:28 PM

RAKARR

I hate to say it, but know what? I don't care any more. Reason is cause I'm not scared of not getting another movie or season of Firefly. Hell if we just get a book or more comics that'll be fine for me.

"I'm a leaf in the wind. Watch as I soa-"

Big Damn Fansite - Where the Browncoats gather.
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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:41 PM

ROCKETJOCK

To quote Douglas Adams, DONT'T PANIC!

Let's not put down Universal. It's always easy to be a Monday morning quarterback.

So we did just 1.6 million on Friday night. That's one night. Last weekend we did 10.1 million alltogether for three nights.

Let's assume we do no better on Saturday or Sunday. (I think it'll pick up a bit, what with the matinees, but lets be pessimistic.) 1.6 million times three equals 4.8 million, or nearly half what we took in last week. A 50% drop in the second week of release isn't unusual.

Serenity reportedly has to do $50 million domestic to guarantee a sequel. The total gross so far is $14,300,000, as of Friday. Add in Saturday and Sunday at $1.6 million each (total of $3.2 million) and we have $17,500,000. That's more than a third of the way there after just two weekends.

Let's not forget that Serenity had a very modest budget (only $40 million); it doesn't have to be a runaway hit for Universal to see it as a viable property.

And let's remember that the $50 Mil domestic/$80 mil worldwide figure that's been bandied around so much is what is necessary to guarantee a sequel. Nothing says Universal can't decide to pick it up even if it doesn't soar theatrically. I'm optomistic that home video sales will be through the roof.

And in the meantime, we've got to hold this gorram valley! I've seen the movie four times so far, and I'm not through yet.

"She's tore up plenty. But she'll fly true." -- Zoë Washburn

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 12:48 PM

ROCKETJOCK

Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have seen absolutely NO marketing at all in the week before release.. it's like the whole movie didn't exist.

Everything Universal did sounded very promising up till the actual week of release.. then it went silent.. why? i havent got a clue..

I don't know what channels you've been warching, but I've seen plenty of Serenity spots. Hear ads on the radio too, and even seen a billboard or two.

And the most recent ads stress the great reviews. It's not Universal's fault if the public has poor taste.

"She's tore up plenty. But she'll fly true." -- Zoë Washburn

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 1:26 PM

GCHRIS

I'm over in the UK, so I guess I'm not part of the key audience that Universal will be watching, but nonetheless I have been to see Serenity EIGHT times since it came out over here a couple of days ago (including a marathon five times in one day!), and I have next week off from work, so I plan on watching it plenty more times yet.

By all means do whatever it takes to convince other people to go an see it, but it's important to keep seeing it yourself too. The weekend seems to be the key point which is being watched, so make sure you go to see it at least once every weekend or more if you can manage it.

The-numbers.com talks about 'Fanboy Effect' causing a films opening weekend to be artificially high - that only happens if the fans go to see it when it opens and then don't go again. More casual fans will do this, so it's up to each and every 'hardcore' fan to make up the numbers.

Chris

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 1:29 PM

AEROB1033

I think part of the blame does rest with Joss for naming the damn thing "Serenity" in the first place; the movie itself is fantastic and if people actually went to see it I'm confident that it'd generate more of a buzz and non-fans would really enjoy it. And we should all be endlessly grateful to Universal for greenlighting it in the first place, even if the marketing could've pointed a little more at the general audience a little less at the fans.

But the biggest issue is that people aren't going to see the name "Serenity" and think big, epic sci-fi action movie. They won't know what it is, and subconsciously they're going to think the movie is as soft and elegant as the word. They might think it's some sappy low-budget romance movie, or a documentary on a stripper-come-pop star. Yes, it fits the film perfectly in a literary sense, but this isn't a literary novel, it's (supposed to be) something of a sci-fi blockbuster.

Just call it "Firefly"; or call it "The Signal". Or even "Terrifying Cannibals from Outer Space!", for crying out loud. None of those are the best titles, either, but they're better than "Serenity". Yes, even the last one. Remember, "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow" made more money than we did on its opening weekend.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 1:33 PM

JAYSONAYCH

I know it's a totally different kind of movie, but as an example that not all is lost...the original Austin Powers movie debuted #2 to Breakdown, an okay but forgettable thriller film (much like one recently released starring Jodie Foster), and only made a modest amount of money (sure, it wasn't budgeted as high as Serenity, but it didn't totally wow people at the box office). It was decided to go ahead and do a sequel which went on to be highly successful, pulling in over $300,000,000 when all was said and done.

I know there are some different circumstances, but it's certainly not unprecedented to start out a film franchise with a non-blockbuster and become highly successful with a sequel if the studio believes in it and gives it the chance it needs. I think the international B.O. and DVD sales will give it the lift it needs to earn a second chance, at the very least for a direct-to-video sequel. Not the ideal situation, but better than no sequel at all...

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 1:43 PM

EXQUEMELING

Now, I'm assuming that the box office figures that count are the ones since the movie officially opened in theaters...

If this is indeed the case, then I can't help but think that as cool as it was to see advance screenings of the BDM, the fact that there were so darned many of them that most of the 'hardcore' fans and Browncoats amongsdt us had alrready seen it by the time it was rolled out to cinemas - one group of guys I spoke to about it in my store in Liverpool said they'd already seen it 3 times at advance screenings! BEFORE IT WAS EVEN OFFICIALLY RELEASED TO THEATERS!!

Multiply the number of screenings around the globe by the numer of tickets sold and by the ticket price andf I'm sure that that'd come to quite a tidy sum in itself...

I'm also having trouble beieving that people are boycotting the movie due to certain events - what is up with that!?!

Anyhoo, all of those advance showings must've surely put a big dent in the box office takings figures...

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 1:54 PM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
If this is indeed the case, then I can't help but think that as cool as it was to see advance screenings of the BDM, the fact that there were so darned many of them that most of the 'hardcore' fans and Browncoats amongsdt us had alrready seen it by the time it was rolled out to cinemas.

While the utility of the screenings as a marketing device may be debatable, Chris Buchanan has said that the money from the screening would be included in the opening box office. I think it shouldn't amout to more than $40,000, though--a blip in the statistics when it comes to box office.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 1:55 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Let's pretend that the pre-screenings don't count.

Let's pretend that there were 200 pre-screenings.

Let's pretend that there were 400 people at each pre-screening.

Let's pretend a ticket to a movie costs 10 dollars US.

Let's pretend that all of these inflated values are true.

That's 800,000 bucks. That's less than 1/50th of what the movie needs to get a sequel.

So, no, fret not that the pre-screenings are hurting our box-office numbers. The fans were always a small percentage of the people who needed to see this movie for it to be successful.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 2:17 PM

CARDIE

Sometimes something is great but doesn't have wide appeal to the typical audiences that go to the movies. There are movie fans who scorn television and would probably stay away from a movie based on a television show. There are people who don't like the Western elements, even if they are toned way down in the film.

We have always wanted to blame someone for the fact that Firefly/Serenity isn't something that has mass appeal. That's why we love it, because it's unique.

I'm just grateful we got the film, and that it gave a kind of closure to the series.

Variety's formula for predicting the overall domestic gross of a film is to double the grosses for the first ten days. That's looking like about $32 million if this weekend's trend continues.

Cardie

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 2:28 PM

SNEAKER98

Girlfriend and I are going to see it tonight.

It aint much, but it's a bit of help.

"I do the job... and then I get paid. Go run your little world."
-Malcolm Reynolds

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 2:51 PM

SADLITTLEKING

I agree with you, Cardie. Unfortunately, Firefly/Serenity just doesn't have the mass appeal to pull in the big box office numbers. It's not a well-known franchise and there's really no huge celebrity to draw people in. Serenity is a fine movie with fine actors who get the job done. It all comes together well, but it's just not the rollercoaster ride movie-goers generally flock to.

I'm grateful to Universal for giving us Serenity and doing a good job at marketing it. I saw the TV spot for it plenty of times before the movie released and I'm seeing the new TV spot saying "Ebert & Roeper give Serenity two thumbs up." plenty of times. But sometimes that just doesn't help. If people aren't interested or have just decided that they'll wait for the DVD release, then that's how it goes. Nothing anyone can do about that really.

And if this is the only movie we get, I'm fine with it. I just desperately needed to see that boat flyin' again. I think all fans needed it and that's what we got. We helped in getting to this point and no one can take that away from us. Where we go from here, if the DVD doesn't pull in enough to justify a sequel, is anybody's guess. Perhaps doing TV movies every year or so would be a good idea. I think Sci-Fi Channel could be open to an idea like that. A Firefly TV movie would certainly put every other Sci-Fi Channel original movie to shame.

But even if it ends here, man was it a hell of a ride while it lasted. Thank you, Joss, and thank you, Universal.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 3:23 PM

TENTHCREWMEMBER

Could you please just make it stranger? Stranger. Odder. Could be weirder. More bizarre. How about uncanny?

It takes more than one kick to my groin to get me riled (and no, I am not explaining that reference ). Today was that second kick, and I am still reeling, trying to figure out how it is I ended up standing behind the jackass when it kicked. Gorram mules...

Mass appeal.

Hrm...and in 1977 everyone KNEW what Star Wars was, right? It had mass appeal going into it, right? George Lucas was a household name, because of all those great TV shows he made, such as X-wing: the Series, right? (Yes, I made that last part up, so put away the torches, would-be-flamers)

WRONG!

No one had even heard of Star Wars. And it ran FOREVER that year because there was nothing else, except JAWS to go see.

Here is some numbers for all the nay-sayers to consider:

Star Wars IV (1977) - opening weeking $1.5 mil
http://www.filmsite.org/starw.html

$1.5 mil adjusted from 1977 to 2005 dollars - $4.87 mil
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

Firefly (2005) - opening weekend $10.1 mil
$10.1 mil adjusted from 2005 to 1977 dollars - $3.1 mil

So in a nut shell, ticket for ticket (adjusting), Serenity has, with a fall opening, done TWICE the box office take Star Wars did with an early summer opening.

Never thought I'd say this about (apparently) Browncoats, but some of you really need perspective. I'm not saying Serenity will be bigger than Star Wars (truly I hope not, because Star Wars sucks now *THANKS ALOT LUCAS THE HUTT!*) and I'm not saying it will gross enough to have a sequel (but I'd like to have faith it will). What I am saying is that the movie IS NOT and WILL NOT be a flop. Waterworld...that was a flop. Perspective, people, perspective.

We've gotten more than we ever should have, and some of you...some of you have gotten more than you obviously deserve.

Thank you, Joss, for a movie worth watching.

Thank you, Universal, for letting him make that movie.

"You really believe that?"- the Operative
"I do."- Malcolm Reynolds

With damaged calm,
TCM

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:04 PM

CHRONICTHEHEDGEHOG

Actually, Waterworld made nearly $100 million profit at the box office. Not what I'd call a flop...

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:26 PM

GREENEO

I would love to do my part and round up a bunch of people to see it again this weekend but I just can't handle that kind of depression. Saw it twice on opening weekend and was bummed out of my mind for the rest of the week. Wonder if the melancholy of the film has anything to do with the numbers.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:34 PM

MARTING

It's 2005, times changed a lot since 1977.. not really objective to compare.

What bugs me the most is all these movies entering theaters this week. It's like the busiest week in months... so how is postponing the movie from april 22 to sept 30 a good thing?

Again, april 22 release would have hardly had any competition.

Ok, it is true that when universal set the date to sept 30 that at that time only a few movies were planned for this week, and that others got added later.. but its just saddening that this release date turned out as a really bad one.

One thing nobody can do a thing about is that the box office is in a slump this year, and a lot of good movies have had poor results (and the bad good.. says enough about the general audience i guess)

With current results it seems the best we can hope for is that in total it will make 40 million domestic, 20 international and 40+ on DVD.. that would be enough to warrant a sequal

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:48 PM

DANIELWSC

Quote:
Originally posted by chronicthehedgehog:
Actually, Waterworld made nearly $100 million profit at the box office. Not what I'd call a flop...

Water world is an interesting example. It tanked in the US ($88M) but did boffo business worldwide ($255M). We can hope...

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:50 PM

KELSO

Realistically, we are probably looking at $25m-$30m domestically and $15m-$20m overseas. Which would put the worldwide gross at $40m-$50m. Hell, even that's pretty optimistic.

I feel confident that Serenity will make back it's production budget (worldwide), but barely. We had better be prepared to buy DVDs in bulk.

EDIT: Just want to add that I would love to be proven wrong!

-------
Well, here I am.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:57 PM

EVERYWORLDSPINNIN

Quote:
Originally posted by Blinker:
Here's a new promotional tool I've been hammering out. Fifty critics wax rhapsodic over the BDM:

http://slidersweb.net/serenity

Next up, a printable version suited to handouts and postering. (Although if anyone else wants to make one first, I'd be thrilled. It'll probably turn out a lot better than mine.)

_________
Sliders: Gate Haven - http://slidersweb.net/blinker

This would be nice as a poster in the lobby of any theater. Nice work.
--------------------------------------------------
"The last thing I want is that any of our descendents should look back in some years and despise us for not daring to act when we had so much capacity to act. We must dare to seek how, why and on what we agree. We shall thus be able to join together to look for alternative solutions and new ways of managing the world's challenges. Being diverse is our richness, acting together will be our strength". (Federico Mayor; 02-04-01;
UBUNTU Constituent Meeting).

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 4:59 PM

NEVETEXTOR

Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have to comment at Universal for this. This is a marketing disaster. Way to ruin a film!

I'm glad to know that fandoms are still fond of canibalizing themselves and attacking the people who might plausibly be seen as being on their side. First Fox killed it, now Universal. Because it can't possibly be that the movie and show just didn't have what it takes to succeed.

Sometimes good movies flop. Sometimes good ideas don't make it. And it's not because of lack of marketing. It's because, shocking a notion as this may be, people have different tastes. And sometimes things have limited audiences. Even good things.

It wasn't an easy movie to market. It's best understood by watching 14 hours of television first, it has no big stars, it's not an easy premise to describe. April wasn't a good time to release it - Sin City was still doing strong business, Hitchhiker's and Star Wars were around the corner, and the Interpreter would have been far rougher competition than the second week of Flightplan.

And, frankly, it makes me ashamed to call myself a browncoat if this is the way the fandom is going to act. We got a gift - we got a big damn movie that should never have been made. Cancelled shows don't get wrapped up in movies. Cancelled shows die and get forgotten. We got more than any other fandom I can think of. And what do we show for it? Bitterness, resentment, and accusation.

Nice going.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 5:04 PM

UMSUMAYYAH

I plan to buy 3-4 copies of the DVD when it comes out.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 5:16 PM

WATCHALL

Not sure if anyone else read this but "reliable industry sources" over at Digital Bits (link below) say Universal will soon announce the DVD release of Serenity for 12/20 (Yep That's This Year) Looks like Univeral could be trying to get more money from Serenity and QUICK.

Full story at.... http://www.thedigitalbits.com/rumormill.html#1006

Also (I think ) i can see Universal doing Serenity 2 and 3 But more likely Direct to dvd releases.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 5:20 PM

KELSO

^ Well, the film was originally slated for April... so it makes sense that the DVD would be ready by now.

Putting it out during the holidays is the wise move.

Plus, Christmas will give Browncoats an excuse to purchase multiple copies. ;)

-------
Well, here I am.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 5:33 PM

FALLENANGEL

As I mentioned in my blog, I guess I should start filling out an application for becoming a human incubator for cloned internal organs in the black market and raise enough money and give it to Joss and say "Here. Go on. Take it. Go make the sequel for us Browncoats. We're waiting. Don't ask where I got this money. You don't wanna know."

I wouldn't worry guys. There's still the DVD sales. I dunno know bout u guys but I'm buying like, ten copies, and who knows, what if they re-relase the movie again? I just wish I had so much money to go the movies more often and see Serenity so many times, like the Star Wars and Rocky Horror Pic fans.
Don't give up hope yet u guys. We made it this far.

We've done the impossible and that makes us mighty.

*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
"I am a leaf on the wind. Watch how I soar."

-Wash.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 5:39 PM

MARTING

I would edit my post to ease it down a bit as i pushed it too far, but ive been quoted couple of times already with the worst line.. so n/m

Again, im greatful for the existence of this movie.

And maybe im wrong about Universal's marketing efforts, I'm mostly commenting on the advertising ive seen online.. and i havent seen any banners on the big movie sites.

Also im dissapointed about the number of theaters, i know a couple of people who were interested in seeing it in theaters, but because Serenity wasnt available in the theater in their town they chose to wait for the DVD.

So my aplogies to Universal, i guess i just hate the feeling that its not in my own hands. The movie is good, everyone i have gotten to watch the firefly dvd loved it or atleast liked it.. so the product and the taste of people matches.. but they only need to see it! and thats not happening on a scale i hoped for :(

On a plus side.. ive also talked to people who didnt know the show and LOVED the movie, called it the best movie they have seen in a very long time and were sure to check Firefly out!

In regards to user reviews and press reviews we're doing pretty dang good and just that we have this movie is indeed something to be thankful for and like Joss said the most important thing is to take 2 hours away from the fighting and fully enjoy the movie cause thats what it all has been about after all

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 5:40 PM

FIREFLYGAL

Quote:
Originally posted by MartinG:
I have to comment at Universal for this. This is a marketing disaster. Way to ruin a film!

Ok, so here's my view:

Serenity has gotten a whole load of praising reviews. Serenity also opened in only 2000 theaters. So the first week was a bit dissapointing, mainly due to lack of interest which is caused by lack of good advertisement.

Now, the best way to go into the second weekend then is EXPANDING the number of theaters to 2750, ADVERTISING it EXCESSIVELY with use of the PRAISING REVIEWS.

That is the best way. Because a lot of situations like this would have happened then;

"hey did you know that that movie Serenity is now opening in out nearby theater as well?"

"-yeah i heard that, i saw it advertised yesterday and i heard its getting amazing reviews and it looks interesting, also i have a mate in los angeles that saw it and he loved it"

"well shall we go see it this night then"

"-sounds like a plan"

This was THE opportunity to launch it to a wider public as something new, fresh and appealing.

This weekend was Universals' second chance to do it right and they BLEW it. But looking from their past movies like cinderella they have a reputation of managing good movies to have poor box office results.

Not to mention the RELEASE DATE.. April 22.. hardly no movies to be seen, and the hype around it seemed bigger then. Now, especially in the second week a whole lot of competition. Atleast 3 times more than on april 22.. also this is the worst time of the year for good movies to do well.. this would have done so much better in november

ive made 7 people to buy the firefly dvd and they all loved it, i wished that a whole lot of people would be introduced with this great universe but sadly.. it wont happen.. not in theaters atleast

It would have been killed in November by Harry Potter.

I aim to misbehave!

Firefly items:
For lapel pins and badge holder lanyards
e-mail FireflyGal1@hotmail.com
www.cafepress.com/fillies
www.cafepress.com/fireflyflan

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 6:03 PM

GROOSALUGG

Even if the BDM doesn't make another single dime, one thing I hope I never ever see again is a browncoat calling it a flop. The fact that it even got made in the first place is a tremendous success for Joss, the cast, and especially, the fanbase. Thanks to the crew for their labor of love on it (which definitely shows), and to Universal for paying for the damn thing.

I want a sequel. And then one after that. And then three more, just like what Star Trek got. But if it doesn't happen, I'm not going to let it spoil my enjoyment of this one, and I hope no one else does, either. Please, folks, don't get so wrapped up in the box office numbers that you don't let yourself properly appreciate what we DID get.

If this is all we get, don't let the lasting taste in your mouth be one of failure. Serenity is incredible--bask in the greatness of what was achieved, not the what-could-have-been of unrealized sequels.

Just trying to be Perspective Guy...

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 6:08 PM

TENTHCREWMEMBER

Could you please just make it stranger? Stranger. Odder. Could be weirder. More bizarre. How about uncanny?

Quote:
Originally posted by chronicthehedgehog:
Actually, Waterworld made nearly $100 million profit at the box office. Not what I'd call a flop...

Perhaps I chose a poor example. Perhaps not. I remember the critics chastising it, the news reporting what a ridiculous amount of money it cost to make, and the fact that they released it into every theatre they could in the world to make it look like people actually liked it and so they could make money (because I'm sure places like Thailand and Columbia had lots of movie options *sigh*). Of course, that is my biased view of the thing, and I admit it freely but only because:

Where are its sequels?
Its TV show(s)?
Its merchandise?

Never will be.
Won't happen.
And forgotten to the sands of time (did you see THOSE action figures?!? Ai ya, those were crap!).

Part of my point here, is money isn't necessarily the bottom line directly. Now think about all the licensing and product rights, such as the action figures, the soundtrack, the books, and when released, the DVDs. These will help determine the future of a FRANCHISE. The money that comes indirectly

How many Star Trek movies and spinoff TV series are there? How many of those shows and films were genuinely bad (more than most will admit to)? Yet they keep making them. They keep selling toys, gadgets, collectibles, and throngs of them show up at conventions. Doubly so for Star Wars (which as I have opinionated before, that franchise gets worse with each installment).

Franchises aren't planned, in reality. They happen. They happen, because OVER TIME they grow. How many Browncoats were there when the show aired? Far less than there were AFTER the same Browncoats started selling/giving pirated copies of the show to others via ebay and other ways, forcing Fox to at least admit there was a demand for DVDs with the whole series...and were they right? Damn skippy. Everyone associated with it said it exceeded expectations. And NOW how many Browncoats are out there? And how many more are to BECOME Browncoats yet?

My god, your god, anybody's god! 8 days. EIGHT GORRAM RUTTIN' DAYS...and people are acting like it is the end of the 'Verse.

Again, I am grateful for what Joss and Universal has given us. Grateful for the Browncoats who came before me and didn't let Firefly die. Grateful for the opportunity to be a part of something that, even if it is not historic, certainly meant something to alot of very special people.

You want to crap in my yard, mule? Well, I know how to use it for fertilizer. If this movie fails (and that is so subjective a term), it won't be my fault, it won't be Joss's fault, it won't be Universal or Fox or Chris Buchanan or even Jodie Foster's fault. It's the fault of those who EXPECTED it to fail. The fault of those who cried because the release date was moved, cried because the movie wasn't what THEY would've written, cried because not enough people went to see it when they wanted them to, and cried because people like me are grateful for something special that shouldn't even exist and that, somehow, is a burr in their saddle.

I won't cry if Firefly/Serenity doesn't continue. Sure, I'll be sad, but I won't curse the people who made its continuance possible.

It is, in my mind, not only one of the best sci-fi movies ever made, but one of the best movies ever made. And if the possibility of getting another one made means I have to buy copies of the DVDs (both series and movie) for my friends and family, post guerilla marketing everywhere, stay active on fansites, host shindigs, attend cons dressed as a Firefly character, or any other multitude of things that have kept other franchises alive, I will.

Being a Browncoat is more than being a fan. Its about belief in something. Its about fighting for what you want, even if you may not deserve it or others would keep you from it. Hell, Joss spells this out to those loyal fans IN THE MOVIE. He says, by way of the movie, "Thank you. Thank you for helping make this possible. You fought for it, and you deserve this."

So if you "mules" want to crap on your gift, then I really can't stop you. But you can't claim it was a shitty gift because you shat on it after receiving it. That makes you look all manner of stupid.

Again, not saying there will be sequels, or that the story will ever continue in anyway, outside the casual to hardcore gamers gathering out there in the Black RPing their hearts out. Too much has happened in the past 3 years to give up on this now, this early. It's been killed before, and like Reavers, it hasn't laid down. Not saying it will be the marketed success of Star Wars or Star Trek, but rather that it can and may happen.

If Waterworld (my god that movie sucked chapped ass, and YES its my opinion) can make a bunch of money, then I have the belief that this movie, Serenity, will make enough that, not only will Universal be happy (ie profitable), but the loyal Browncoats true to their belief may yet again be rewarded for holding their ground.

Bwah, indeed.
TCM

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