Friday (2nd week) estimates--WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE! by StakeTheLurk

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Friday (2nd week) estimates--WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE!

POSTED BY: STAKETHELURK
UPDATED: Monday, October 10, 2005 05:14
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VIEWED: 29480
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Saturday, October 8, 2005 6:09 PM

I do not understand why this weekend is the make or break of the movie. Is this coming from Universal or is this our panic. I have seen the movie twice and loved it. I tried to go again this Friday but I didn't know it was fall break for the schools. I have never seen so many children for the early show. They were all going to see Wallace & Gromit. I went to see the BDM again today and there was over 60 people watching the movie with me. But there were 100s for Wallace & Gromit, 2 or more children with there parents. It was scary. I know there is still hope because all those parents will want to see a great movie and that will be "Serenity".

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 6:14 PM

TRESCHONDE

Well here's my two cents on some of the reasons why Serenity isn't doing as well as we all hoped it would. And some of my post is admittedly repeating what others have said.

To start with the original post.. it's true that us browncoats just aren't as overpowering as we'd like to be. Even with taking all our family and friends each weekend, we're not enough to fill the gap, but we already know this. Money makes the world go 'round.

So reasons why other people aren't seeing the movie..

For one.. and this is a harsh truth about how people's preferences are.. but I know several people who refuse to see the movie just because it's from Joss Whedon, or because it's from the 'maker of Buffy and Angel'. Some people even hate Whedon just because of overzealous fanboys.

Another reason, as previously stated, is that alot of people will choose what movie to see based on what famous actor/actress is in it. And no one really knows our BDHs.

I think Universal has done ALOT of work for us on promoting the film, taking a huge risk on something they weren't sure would fly for them. However I also agree that after the reviews came in they should have released at least SOME new marketting containing the critic praises. But perhaps they just didn't see the first weekend results as good enough to warrant spending more money. But regardless, we have alot to thank Universal for.

I don't have high hopes for this 2nd weekend, or even the following weekend. I will continue to do my browncoat duty of course, Serenity is too good to give up on. And when the DVD sales stomp Amazon.com's arse, I believe we will get our sequel, in time.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 6:49 PM

RJ2UMAN

Well I saw it last weekend and agian this weekend. But this time I took 4 people with me. If you enjoyed this movie the best thing you can do is to promote and take someone. The theatre I was in was completely packed.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:04 PM

ROCKETJOCK

Had the BDM been released in April and then nosedived, I'm sure there'd have been just as many griping voices saying "what a stupid time of year to release it! All that competition..."

Despite this thread's title, we're only in serious trouble if we want to see it that way.

Consider this, for example. Sometimes studios will continue to back a film despite poor box office because of good reviews, which can add a lot to a studio's status and prestiege. The classic example is The Wizard of Oz, which was a financial loss for the first ten years of its existence, but which was perceived as adding luster to MGM's reputation.

And at this point, ain't no denyin' it, Serenity is a major critical success.

Last item: about this weekend being a "make or break" for the Big Damn Sequel: If we don't make the nut this weekend, I predict the worst that's going to happen is that the studio is going to refrain from greenlighting the BDS at this time.

Gentlefolk, I submit that they aren't going to cut a potentially profitable franchise's head off and bury it at a crossroads. They'll wait and see how she flies in DVD sales.

Need I remind anyone of Firefly's track record in that venue?

"Start with the part where Jayne gets knocked out by a ninety-pound girl; 'cause that's never getting old." -- Hoban Washburn

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:17 PM

ZVPHJSNUPNUGV

Many "me toos": I'm grateful to Universal for giving us Serenity, and I don't feel slighted if there's no sequel. Also, I think that we're doing everyone involved in the project a great disservice if we allow ourselves to think of the movie as a failure. It's a great film, well written, well acted, and a hell of a lot of fun, and I'd still feel that way if I was the only one who ever went to see it. Box office numbers can't touch Serenity; it was and is a success.

It's not necessarily a bad thing if there isn't a sequel, either; it might, in fact, give us reason to breathe a sigh of relief. If Serenity had been a box office smash, a sequel would have been assured --- and, odds are, it would have attracted studio meddling. Whedon may be talented, but he can't single-handedly bring a feature film to the screen. Why do you suppose so many sequels stink so badly?

Remember Highlander? Beautiful film by itself. But the sequel couldn't have possibly been any worse. That may be the most glaring example that comes to my mind, but we could go on about bad sequels all night.

Sequels can damage previous films. Who here, on a sci-fi fan board, doesn't remember Spock getting killed off? It was a dramatic death of a character we'd lived with a long time, and it had impact. Then the next Star Trek film comes along and merrily eradicates that impact through some silly-assed ressurrection. Now, if Whedon pulled something that cheesy he'd deserve death by HeeHaw reruns. But somebody at some studio once thought bringing back Spock would be popular and clever, and somehow the dreadful idea actually made it to the screen.

So maybe there'll be a Serenity sequel, maybe not. If there is, let's hope it'll be great. If there's not, let's count our blessings and be grateful for the chance to see the story conclude well.

Serenity succeeded.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 7:37 PM

SPIKESPIEGEL

Hail to all the browncoats going to multiple screenings to support the BDM. I saw it today for the first time (I'd been out of the U.S. until yesterday) and I'm going tomorrow. But here's a reminder for the misbehavin' types:

Most movie theaters tear your ticket at the door, but don't check which theater you're going into. This means that if you've already seen Serenity a time or two and don't feel like seeing it again this week (or have a party of eight all intent on seeing "Corpse Bride"), you can buy tickets to Serenity and still see the other thing.

Sure, Serenity is a film worth seeing over and over, but if you must see something else, doesn't mean you can't PAY for Serenity.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 8:22 PM

TALLAUSSIEBROWNCOAT

Down here in Adelaide, South Australia, telling everyone I know how good the Firefly series and the Movie is, and seen it twice now, aiming for a third viewing on friday!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:07 PM

SIGGGY

Yeah get optimistic people. Its a good film, backed by good reviews with good sound and suited to the big screen. Fans are hurting the movie by bashing other films and the movie itself. Just support it if you like it otherwise just chill out and be happy it was made.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:14 PM

SIGGGY

Get optimistic guys. A good film, supported by good reviews and great on the big screen keep telling your friends. Give it a good run and see what happens instead of the negatives.

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:14 PM

SIGGGY

See it on the big screen!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:17 PM

THECRAZYIVAN

MY GOD! Save the pity party for those quitters. WE WILL GO ON! We rock, we know it, universal knows it (BTW...the Universal bashing will not fly...thank them, they at least gave us a gorram shot!)...These are not the same people that were so excited, so willing to do anything for this film. YOu just gunna give up? NO! YOU HOLD! If the show taught us anything its that! Our revival proves it. It aint over till we say so, we get what we want...cuz we work for it. I know saturday's over...dont mean the movie is gone...

Comeon Browncoats...lighten up people! You'll see...once we get ourselves a Serenity video game and trivial pursuit (GAWD I hope theres a firefly/serenity tivial pursuit) youll see how far weve come.

~~~~~~~~~~
"There is a sense that this is still not over. It's hard to put a finger on what's so special about this project and about this group of people, but it's just one of those things you have to trust in, and relish. I am very, very proud."
---Jewel Staite on "Firefly" and "Serenity" in "Finding Serenity" (essay collection by Jane Espenson)

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:32 PM

TALLAUSSIEBROWNCOAT

Quote:
Sure, Serenity is a film worth seeing over and over, but if you must see something else, doesn't mean you can't PAY for Serenity.

That's cheeky as hell, but funny as hell too! You aim to misbehave!

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Saturday, October 8, 2005 9:47 PM

BOBNSAM

The UK is a tiny island compaired to you guys in USA/Canada - so maybe we are seeing the advertising more?

We have the Serenity posters running in most national newspapers, there have been a number of interviews and reviews on TV - ALL good (I will post the videos of these later today).

So we seem to be getting the "signal" out here. But it takes a little time in the UK..... it takes time to get out to these outer planets ;-)

We saw it twice on its release day - Friday. But for our main cinemas in this area the days to watch (apart from the weekends) and Tuesdays - when they have half price tickets (hopefully pulling in more people) and Orange Wednesdays - when people on the Orange mobile phone network have a "buy one get one free" promotion. Its ALWAYS busy on Wednesday nights.

So we need to see what happens over the next two weeks. We will be going again next weekend to add to the figures :-)

There are too many ideas and worries about what amount of $$ will make them do a sequel. Does anyone REALLY know, unless we get it from 'Versal or Joss?

Take into account the merchandise (my wife has bough everything nearly) and the DVD sales (OMG the DVD sales will be unbelievable!) and Joss determination, and in no matter what direction 'Versal decide to go - we will have Serenity! Maybe sequels, a series, tv movies.... who knows - keep your fingers crossed!

Jason

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 12:33 AM

XEROGRAVITY

Best marketing move possible would be to rerun the FF episodes on SciFi channel in the US again. Only this time, do as they did in the UK. Run the eps on the weekend. Alot of people were instantly converted when they saw the whole series on SciFi chan. Only problem was, they ran it on a weekday. Most people are working stiffs. Hell... most people still have no clue what Firefly is. Universal should slate a 2 day mini-marathon (7 eps a day) for Saturday and Sunday this upcoming weekend. It'll boost the movie bigtime. That show seems to have the effect of instantly converting most people who watch it. Definately had that effect on me, and others whom I've loaned the DVD to.

Serenity is made for a niche market. A big one. Just gotta know how to get the word out.

XG

No such thing as gravity. The "Earth-that-was" just sucks.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 1:03 AM

SERENITYBOY

well i went tonight (saturday) and there were about five empty seats for the show, which was playing in one of the bigger rooms of my theater. then when we exited there was a big line waiting to get in there for the 11:15 show. so i dont know, but its lookin pretty good in this city anyway. San Francisco i mean.

"She's tore up plenty, but she'll fly true."

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 3:55 AM

LITWOLF689

Same thing happened at my theatre. Went to a 3:30 showing on Sat with a group of friends and the theatre was basically filled! Dont give up yet guys! We still have a chance!! Dont make me start quoting Firefly! "We have done the impossible and that makes us mighty." "You cant take the sky from me." "No power in the 'verse can stop me." I could go on and on.

Dont lose hope, its only the second weekend. And we still got the DVD sales when its released on DVD. We will have our sequels!

"Two roads diverged in a wood and I took the road less traveled by and they CANCELLED MY FREAKIN' SHOW! I totally shoulda took the road that had all those people on it. Damnit." ~Joss

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 4:07 AM

CUNNINGMUNKI

I don't understand all this doom and gloom. As far as I see it Serenity has been a box-office and critical success!
It's just opened over here in the UK and I went to see it yesterday purley on the strength of the trailers and the reviews. I was a big Buffy/Angel fan, but have never seen Firefly, which to me looked like yet another crappy sci-fi show along the lines of Farscape, Andromeda, Babylon 5, etc, etc ,etc. But after seeing Serenity I've just ordered myself the DVD of Firefly.
I don't think a lot of you guys can see past your expectations. This is a film based on a cancelled TV show from a first-time movie director and has no A-list stars whatsoever. It's amazing it's even been made! But it's proof that Universal put a lot of faith in Whedon's vision, and it's more than paid off.
Like I say, I haven't watched Firefly (yet), but the movie Serenity, is one of the best Sci-Fi non-sequel movies I've seen in a very long time.
And I think it's far more likely that the success of Serenity will bring back the TV series rather than spawn a movie sequel, since TV is Whedon's favourite format, despite proving his ability of a first-class movie director.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 4:10 AM

CHRISTHECYNIC

If you want to talk in slogans made from quotes, which some people seem to, here's how I see it:

They did take the sky from us.

Now we've got it back, in other words we’ve done the impossible and that makes us mighty.

But they can stop the signal, and we're the ones who have to work to make it not happen.

-

Also, wasn't it Joss who said this is the important weekend?

The part that matters is not making huge amounts of money any given day or weekend, it is continually making enough money to keep it in theaters. So far it seems that if we get people to see it they like it, and many (perhaps not most) will probably go again.

The thing is that since people are not flocking to go see it we need time. People will go to see a movie if it is there, it just happens. They look at the listings and say, "We could try Serenity," but only if it is still there when they look.

We won't get some amazing quick turnout, that means we need time to accumulate money.

-

Interesting note, being an annoying zelot may drive people away, but being merely passionate can convince people to go. I'm not sure how you know when you've crossed the line though.

-
-

"Two roads diverged in a wood and I took the road less traveled by and they CANCELLED MY FREAKIN' SHOW! I totally shoulda took the road that had all those people on it. Damnit." ~Joss

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 5:38 AM

TENTHCREWMEMBER

Could you please just make it stranger? Stranger. Odder. Could be weirder. More bizarre. How about uncanny?

A couple more thoughts:

What weekend ISN'T important?
What showing ISN'T important?

They all are, point of fact. All the $$$ adds up in the end. I don't care if it is Orange Wednesdays or Black Fridays or whatever, so long as people are seeing the movie. Still, I am not gonna cry if we are not #1 with a bullet (really, what moonbrain expected that? Not even Joss or the studio).

We will get there, but in a fashion more like Browncoats. We hold. We keep going back, and we keep bringing more troops (friends, family, klingons, whoever!) to the movie. So what if it takes a year or 3 (sound familiar?), or even 10 before it is the "success" some would like to define as "money earned in one week". I'll be there every weekend until it isn't showing.

Also, I am curious, has Joss given any thought to continuing the story in a more traditional fashion? Around these parts, we call 'em books.

I wasn't overly impressed by KRAD and the Novelization, but if Joss his own self were to write it...

Can't stop the signal,
TCM

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 5:50 AM

TENTHCREWMEMBER

Could you please just make it stranger? Stranger. Odder. Could be weirder. More bizarre. How about uncanny?

Quote:
Originally posted by christhecynic:
Interesting note, being an annoying zelot may drive people away, but being merely passionate can convince people to go. I'm not sure how you know when you've crossed the line though.

When they get the deer-in-the-headlights look of fear...then maybe you've crossed the line.

BWAH!
TCM

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 7:33 AM

ROCKETJOCK

Quote:
Now, if Whedon pulled something that cheesy he'd deserve death by HeeHaw reruns.

LOL, grab sides, gasp for breah. No, no, I'll take the reavers first--

"What was that?" -- Captain Malcolm Reynolds

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 7:48 AM

STAKETHELURK

Hey, folks, I got me a new thread over here to discuss the Saturday figures: http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=2&t=13687

The short of it: We’re still flying. We need to turn out again today and then spread word of mouth all through next week, make sure we have legs next weekend. If word of mouth continues to spread, there’s an outside chance the Box Office will improve instead of slowly taper off, and even if it doesn’t we still need to get folks in the theaters--more money for the BDM and more customers for the DVDs.

As someone else put it, try to come off as passionate but not as a zealot. You might even carefully omit your browncoatishness and just emphasize the quality of the BDM. If people don’t think you’re biased (I’m not saying you are, but they could think “Oh, of course you’ll say it’s good, you’re a fan”) they’ll be even more likely to check it out based on a favorable recommendation from a friend or acquaintance.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 8:12 AM

EMBERS

some of the box office sites have us in the #8 spot for Saturday,
but this one sets us at #7 (so of course I believe THEM!):
http://www.showbizdata.com/dailybox.cfm

You know, we are the only action figure in the top ten
(well History of Violence has some action,
but can hardly be called anything but a drama)
so if theaters keep us around I think we can manage to continue to build an andience...
here's hoping!

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 7:15 PM

SADLITTLEKING

Quote:
Originally posted by watchall:
Not sure if anyone else read this but "reliable industry sources" over at Digital Bits (link below) say Universal will soon announce the DVD release of Serenity for 12/20 (Yep That's This Year) Looks like Univeral could be trying to get more money from Serenity and QUICK.

Full story at.... http://www.thedigitalbits.com/rumormill.html#1006

Serenity coming to DVD on 12/20 would be great! I could pick up that and Battlestar Galactica Season 2.0 in one trip to Best Buy. It'd be an awesome day!

Also, don't know if this is been posted yet, but the Week 2 numbers are in and Serenity is at #9 having pulled in $4,925,000. Which makes a total of $17,594,000. Not a bad take so far. And I think more people will find the movie when it hits DVD.

The box office chart I'm referring to is here:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

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Monday, October 10, 2005 3:59 AM

KRYTEN3

Quote:
Originally posted by treschonde:
Well here's my two cents on some of the reasons why Serenity isn't doing as well as we all hoped it would.

I have my own opinions re: this. Feel free to disagree/flame

I'm a huge sci-fi fan, but sci-fi movies (as a concept) turn me off these days, given the recent pickings. HHGTTG is the strongest sci-fi film of recent years, and that's based on a book/radio series from the 70's. The newest Star Trek movie was (apparently) shitehouse, the new Star Wars were [Chinese expletive] and the Matrix 2 and 3 were equally disappointing. COming up we have Doom, which looks like a philosophically challenging exploration of the morality of blowing demons up with BFGs. Not, i would say, a deep character piece...

So recent efforts on behalf of CGI buffs have ensured that sci-fi movies are a massive turnoff to those who don't like blitzing fast action and flashy explosions (again, with the exception of HHGTTG). Sad to say, this turnoff is more pronounced with a female demographic, but the same dissatisfaction can be found in male demographics too.

Disappointing that female demographics are switchingo ff in droves, because that was a massive part of Firefly's audience, as it appealed VERY strongly to a female audience...

Oh well, I love the BDM. Even if there is never another one (but I think there will be), I will be satisfied.

EDIT: Additionally, I don't think it's doing badly at all. The reason it's not making our expectations could have something to do with unreasonable expectations...?? The local theatres in Canberra, Australia are still filling up for Serenity. Plenty of people are still going to see this movie...

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Monday, October 10, 2005 4:06 AM

STORMBEAR

The best site to track Serenity is Box Office Mojo...
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=serenity.htm

Keep an eye on the worldwide gross, now at almost 19 million.

and ditto on the chart ref upthread...
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

With a weekend of 5 mill, that was good compared to some other films that had TONS of marketing behind it. I am at a loss on Flightplan and why it is doing so badly.

Serenity is coming up on Lord Of War with 23 mill but that film has been out for a month and had a huge name and large ad budget. If Serenity had a 1 mill second weekend, that would be a major issue.

Serenity is suffering from the same problem every other theatrical release is and that is a public (US at least) that no longer goes to the theater as much as they used to. It is an industry-wide slowdown.

I am unsure if the film will ever see a sequel. Maybe, who knows? I think it is much more likely to see a return to cable than the big screen. Besides, I would rather see that instead of another film - an episodic season is longer than a 2 hour movie. More story, etc.

The DVD sales will probably far excede the box office. These days, and it is true for most films, studios make more from DVD sales than they do the theatrical release. The quick DVD release for Christmas is a way to capitalize on the branding of the film.

So I do not see Serenity as a failure. The plot was good, the acting was well done and... well... "I ate a bug" was priceless.

--
http://stormbear.com

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Monday, October 10, 2005 5:14 AM

SADLITTLEKING

Quote:
Originally posted by StormBear:
So I do not see Serenity as a failure. The plot was good, the acting was well done and... well... "I ate a bug" was priceless.

LOL

I completely agree.

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