Saturday (2nd Week) was better by StakeTheLurk

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Saturday (2nd Week) was better

POSTED BY: STAKETHELURK
UPDATED: Monday, October 10, 2005 10:49
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Sunday, October 9, 2005 7:16 AM

The Saturday estimates are in. You can check them out at Whedonesque: http://whedonesque.com/comments/8417

Drop off for Saturday was 40%, making a 51% drop off for the weekend so far--the norm for sci-fi films. We made $2.26 million Saturday, with $1,035 per theater (No ranking yet, not all the data for other films is in). This is better news, but it’s not great. If this trend continues, we’ll make $5 million this weekend. Just what the prognostication websites have been predicting. So, we’re not a spectacular success but we’re not a huge disappointment. Keep hitting the theaters people--convince the managers to keep the BDM around for a few more weeks.

EDITED TO ADD: The rankings are in. Serenity has moved up to #7, ahead of A History of Violence, Waiting, and (shudder) Into the Blue.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 7:42 AM

REXPOP

Which means given the usual metric that a movie typically does between 2X and 3X its first 10 days take means that we are looking at a total box office of around 30-45 million domestic once the theater run finishes . This would mean that 'Serenity' covered at least its budget on domestic box office alone, which is better than most movies do. And as that's before we include international box office (which with the state of the dollar is worth more than domestic when counted against the budget).

Given that this was a always a release that would make most of its money on DVD, I would say that its probably going to make a tidy chunk of change for all involved making the prospects of a sequel good, providing there is someone at Universal willing to push a little.

One other thing that might be worth doing is dropping Sci-Fi a note thanking them for showing 'Firefly' in its correct order, and wondering if there is any plans to make more. Sci-Fi recently had a very good quarter, and is probably looking to expand its line-up, and would probably be willing to take a serious look at a show with a guaranteed audience base.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 7:48 AM

BROWNCOATMONK

We are fortunate (I believe) that the movie release schedule for this month has several notable projects being released on the 21st so that it's very likely to stay in a majority of the theaters for at least 2 more weeks. Why it wasn't in 3000+ theaters in the first place is a completely different question.

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 8:18 AM

EMBERS

Browncoat Monk, I think the theater owners have some say...
they get films but they have limited screens and they put in what they think will be big.

I've been hoping that great reviews, and a few sold out shows in some theaters, would encourage more theater owners to put 'Serenity' on...
but since we're lagging I'm afraid that all we can hope for now is to hold onto the screens we currently have....

some of the box office sites have us in the #8 spot for Saturday,
but this one sets us at #7 (so of course I believe THEM!):
http://www.showbizdata.com/dailybox.cfm

You know, we are the only action feature in the top ten
(well History of Violence has some action,
but can hardly be called anything but a drama)
so if theaters keep us around I think we can manage to continue to build an andience...
here's hoping!

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 8:26 AM

SOUPCATCHER

Yeah, we really won't know how things stand until later on in the week. The big test will be how many theaters keep Serenity after the two week contracts are concluded.

I'm going to ramble for a bit on why I think this is a long term project rather than something that's going to be accomplished in the first month.

I tend to go in the opposite direction on opening weekend theater count, however. Just from the anecdotal theater reports over at the UB it looks like Serenity did fine, and is continuing to do fine, in certain markets (there still seem to be good crowds in Portland, for example). Others, not so much. The estimates we were getting in ticket sales were definitely not representative of the US and Canada as a whole (and there are all sorts of problems with the theater reports - difficulties in estimating theater capacity and size of crowds for example - so I'm working with very incomplete information). So for every sold out theater reported opening weekend there had to be some pretty empty theaters. Kind of as a data point based on reading posts by theater managers over at HSX it sounded like Serenity was oversaturated in the LA market.

It's all water under the bridge at this point but I'm wondering if less theaters might have been more helpful. Rather than saturating an urban market maybe just making sure that there was a good geographical distribution across the US and Canada. Then seeing how the first two weeks went and expanding where there was the most action.

One thing is clear to me is that I overestimated the size of the Browncoat community in the US and Canada. We're not quite yet a market force to be reckoned with in terms of a wide release. Buying DVDs, no problem. Selling out comics, no problem there either. Selling out pre-screenings, absolutely. Getting millions into a theater on opening weekend, not there yet. Based on exit polling of the opening weekend less than half of the people who bought tickets were fans of Firefly (which works out to somewhere south of 750k tickets). And that's not factoring in multiple viewings. Half a million might be a decent estimate. And that's not nothing. But when you figure that we need to sell millions of tickets (close to ten) for the US and Canada portion of Serenity's box office to be considered a slam-dunk, well...

What we do have on our side, however, is a quality product. Outstanding quality, actually. More than half of the audience opening weekend did not really know about Firefly and somewhere close to 88% liked the movie. The DVD sets are selling decently. More people are joining this site every day who loved the movie and wanted to find out more about this 'verse. Critics gave this movie good marks. There are articles being written about the movie in major publications on a daily basis. This has all the markings of a slow burn rather than an explosion. We really won't be able to judge the success (or non success) of the US and Canada box office until the end of November IMHO.

We were too small to make this movie a raging success overnight. There's no shame in that. But we're not alone. The movie's good, great some might say. Now it's a race between the slow building word of mouth and the market forces of movies. It's never easy

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 8:39 AM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
We were too small to make this movie a raging success overnight. There's no shame in that. But we're not alone. The movie's good, great some might say. Now it's a race between the slow building word of mouth and the market forces of movies. It's never easy .

I agree, it's something of a race, but one in which we've got time to maneuver. We need to spread the word about the film, lend out "Firefly" DVDs, post guerrilla marketing, and just do everything we can to make sure it grows. And even after it's left theaters (hopefully a looong way away), we need to lend out "Firefly" DVDs and then tell people about the movie that's coming to DVD. Increase the Box Office, increase the DVD sales. We're still flying, so let's keep this boat in the air over the coming weeks.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 9:04 AM

BROWNTROUSERS

There is still hope!

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 9:31 AM

MICHELLE

[Sorry for my bad english, guys, I'm from Russia and had no english language practice in years]

Surely, 2nd weekend numbers is not great, but it's not so bad either. Multiplier (weekend gross divided by friday gross) is 3,33 - very good! Far more better than in 1st weekend (2,6).

BTW, Serenity was pretty good in Australian box-office in previous weekend. Again, not great, but good. Look:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/australia/2005/39.htm

It started in 6th position, but only because of small number of theaters. Serenity's average gross was more than any other film. And just look at this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=serenity.htm

I mean, $ 801,529 in threee weekend days and another $ 300 000 in two working days. It's very good.

On October 13th Serenity will jump into 240 russian theaters. I don't know how good or bad gross will be, but...

I has a web-site http://www.kino-govno.com (second best russian movie-site in terms of visitors) and believe me - EVERY SINGLE VISITOR knows that SERENITY IS AWESOME.

There are incredible amount of news (some days it was like "serenity, other movie, serenity, serenity, other movie, other movie, serenity etc"), all of the trailers, all of the sreeenshots, banners, Firefly review (I'll post Serenity review tomorrow - it's right about time) and so on. Our visitors are dying to see Serenity on big screen.

UIP-RUS managing director even presented me a Land of the Dead Jacket on recent press-screening - in gratitude for all our promotion :-)

So, we are doing our best (even impossible) and I hope Serenity will make some good money in Russia.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 9:52 AM

DAST

BoxOfficeMojo.com has Serenity at #9 with grand total of $$17,594,000

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 10:29 AM

SIGGGY

Go Russia!!! The English was pretty good in your topic and all the best to the Russian run.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 10:49 AM

THELURKER

Saw it for the second time on Saturday at a 1 p.m. showing. Not a bad turnout. Probably 45 or 50 in the theater I was in. According to my Yahoo page, Serenity was third on Saturday, behind Flight Plan and History of Violence.

Theater managers...YOU HOLD!

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 11:23 AM

OBIWAN

I just returned from 11:30am show at a Suburban Theater near Portland, OR. Small crowd, only about 30 in a 150 seat theater, but a WIDE mix of people. One true browncoat, some teenagers with their parents, some grandparent duos and a few of us single, educated middle aged dudes.

Power surge cut the film off right as Mal was going to show the Operative the truth. Perfect bathroom break. One guy mentioned a refund and I said, "You get one only if you can say it in Chinese." Good laugh.

The bits that I heard as people exited were positive. This thing will have legs. I am not worried.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 11:25 AM

HAWK

Something to consider:

Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery was something of a disappointment at the box office. You wouldn't think it, given the way that franchise permeated pop culture the world over, would you?

It was when the film came out on video that the thing really took off.

That doesn't mean you can slack off these next few weeks though.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 11:32 AM

NIKNAK

I expected a big drop-off the second weekend so an average one is OK in my book. There were lots of fans very eager to see it all going first weekend, some several times. They can't all be expected to keep going! I hope that now the initial fan rush has passed and word of mouth is good, that numbers will decline much slower in the coming weeks.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 11:36 AM

MISGUIDED BY VOICES

Quote:
Originally posted by Hawk:
Something to consider:

Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery was something of a disappointment at the box office. You wouldn't think it, given the way that franchise permeated pop culture the world over, would you?

It was when the film came out on video that the thing really took off.

I was making the same point to a friend - though I did some checking on boxofficemojo and there is something of a fallacy in the reported failure.

Cost - $16-17 mill, final gross in the US - $50 million.

It opened to less than Serenity ($9 mill something), but had a small drop off to second week.

Still remains the case that the video got the sequel, but it was pretty profitable from a cost basis.

"I threw up on your bed"

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 11:47 AM

MICHELLE

First Austin Powers wasn't a disappointment at the box office: budget - $ 16,5 m, USA gross - $ 53,8 m.

I'm thinking about Island-effect for Serenity. The Island drops exactly the same 50+% in 2nd weekend, it's first weekend was $ 12,4 m and final gross is $ 35,8 m

In that way, Serenity can take $ 30+ m in USA only. And maybe - let's pray for that! - more in other world.

But... The Island never had such devoted fans like Serenity and such good word of mouth.

"Hell, I'm a fan of all seven... but right now, I'm gonna have to go with wrath" (c) Mal

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 12:42 PM

THELONECROUTON

Hi, I'm new here, but I'll speak my piece...

There's a lot of talk about the net as to why Serenity hasn't pulled the crowds in, and how the numbers just aren't adding up to a guaranteed BDS.

What people are failing to note is that this is the only film in recent history where the fans have pretty much dictated that the writer/director has free reign to make the movie that he, and we, want.

This film wasn't written by a suit. It wasn't directed by a suit. It was made by Joss, because that's what WE wanted. And that's what we got.

And it was superb. Taut, funny, action packed, gut-wrenching, but above all excellent.

I am sick and tired of having Hollywood accountants try to dictate what I watch. The last time I could be bothered to go to a cinema was to see the director's cut of Blade Runner. There hasn't been a decent sci-fi film on general release in the last ten years that comes close to Serenity's quality and integrity.

So it cost $40 million. It'll make that back and more, but that's not the point. This film was made for US. Because of US. We've won. The accountants can continue churning out the usual dross for the peasants who don't understand any better, and don't even know that better exists, but WE HAVE WON. We got our BDM, and I tell you now, we'll get our BDS's. Why? Because we put our cash where out mouths are, and we're willing to pay for it in other ways too.

How many Browncoats are there worldwide? Call it half a million. Maybe a tad generous, but for the sake of argument... Say we each donate $50. I'll wager that's less than most of us have already spent on DVD's and cinema tickets. That's $25 million. But it's not just about the money. As Mal said, it's about love. And before you laugh, how many people cheerfully pay their electricity bills while their PC's are cranking out work units for SETI at home or Protein Folding distributed computing? Many, many millions of them. We can put more than our wallets on the line. We can put CPU cycles, talent, and time down as well as cash. The tools to make it as easy said as done are a year or two off, but no more than that. Anyone out there a hairdresser, a seamstress, a logistics manager, a payroll bod, a set designer, a CGI wizard?

Am I being simplistic? No, I'm aiming for terse. Laconic I'll leave to Wash, back in flight school... ;)

Who needs producers, when we can produce it ourselves? A marketing team, when we are already sold? Distributors, when bittorrent is free, and we are happy to fund the bandwidth?

All we need is Joss, some technical savvy, and a little time, effort, and faith.

Like I say, I'm long through being told what to watch or listen to. I know full well what I want, I'm willing to pay for it, and I'm willing to work personally to see it to fruition.

Serenity will return, whether Universal bankrolls it or not.

Mark my words.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 12:54 PM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
I'm thinking about Island-effect for Serenity. The Island drops exactly the same 50+% in 2nd weekend, it's first weekend was $ 12,4 m and final gross is $ 35,8 m

In that way, Serenity can take $ 30+ m in USA only. And maybe - let's pray for that! - more in other world.

But... The Island never had such devoted fans like Serenity and such good word of mouth.

The Island also cost three times as much as our BDM ($120 million), so $35.8 million total US box office is terrible for them but nearly makes back the whole budget for Serenity. I'm hoping we'll beat them, though, we've got devoted fans and a movie that's actually good. So everyone keep spreading the word, posting guerrilla marketing, recommending it to undecideds at the theater, and seeing it ourselves. We're still flying and I'd like to keep it that way.

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 1:46 PM

ZAXBAT

Quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
[Sorry for my bad english, guys, I'm from Russia and had no english language practice in years]

Surely, 2nd weekend numbers is not great, but it's not so bad either. Multiplier (weekend gross divided by friday gross) is 3,33 - very good! Far more better than in 1st weekend (2,6).

BTW, Serenity was pretty good in Australian box-office in previous weekend. Again, not great, but good. Look:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/australia/2005/39.htm

It started in 6th position, but only because of small number of theaters. Serenity's average gross was more than any other film. And just look at this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=serenity.htm

I mean, $ 801,529 in threee weekend days and another $ 300 000 in two working days. It's very good.

On October 13th Serenity will jump into 240 russian theaters. I don't know how good or bad gross will be, but...

I has a web-site http://www.kino-govno.com (second best russian movie-site in terms of visitors) and believe me - EVERY SINGLE VISITOR knows that SERENITY IS AWESOME.

There are incredible amount of news (some days it was like "serenity, other movie, serenity, serenity, other movie, other movie, serenity etc"), all of the trailers, all of the sreeenshots, banners, Firefly review (I'll post Serenity review tomorrow - it's right about time) and so on. Our visitors are dying to see Serenity on big screen.

UIP-RUS managing director even presented me a Land of the Dead Jacket on recent press-screening - in gratitude for all our promotion :-)

So, we are doing our best (even impossible) and I hope Serenity will make some good money in Russia.

Michelle, PRIVET Y OCHEN XOROSHO! (Sorry, my Russian is pretty rusty and I don't know how to change to cyrillic nor do I remember what the transliteration standards are, but NU Y SHTO!)

Good to hear about your great work there in Russia. I believe that worldwide the movie will be a great success, due in part to the efforts of many just like yourself. I'm hoping for a sequel or a return to TV, but as someone else so eloquently put it, having accomplished what we have so far is a victory in an of itself. I am just hoping we can extend it.

Keep up the great work!

Zaxbat

Keeping the faith

(I'll bet you know what my name even means!)

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Sunday, October 9, 2005 2:57 PM

VANCOUVER

I'm crossing my fingers with the rest of you, and can't help thinking about The Bourne Identity as a possible parallel. It did marginal domestic box-office (relative to its budget)--around $60 million, I believe--and then became the #1 DVD/video rental for that year. They were sure in a hurry to make the sequel after that. Good reviews, good word of mouth, and, most of all, watchability DO pay off eventually, I think, at least most of the time. We are lucky to live in an era where an "eventually" exists, in the form of DVDs. If I ever saw a movie where the uninitiated fully intend to see it, because of good reviews and inherent appeal, but are probably inclined to wait for the DVD, it's Serenity.

By the way, I went to Future Shop to (belatedly) buy the DVD set of Firefly, and was told that they didn't have any in, they were all sold out, but that another store had 50 copies. Then another saleclerk came up and said that the store I was in had just got its own order of 50 copies, and they had a waiting list longer than your arm. I bought mine (why did I wait so long!?), and the clerks started the long business of calling all the customers on the list...

So that's heartening, right?

Vancouver

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Monday, October 10, 2005 5:50 AM

TENTHCREWMEMBER

Could you please just make it stranger? Stranger. Odder. Could be weirder. More bizarre. How about uncanny?

I'm hoping, that even if nothing further comes of the story (and that would be a crying shame), that at least Hollywood and the movie industry will sit up and take notice that you CAN make good movies, that you CAN make good science fiction and that people WILL go see it.

The trend is people are not going to the movies. A big part of that is that there is too much crap out there, and by the time you are done wading in crap, the few gems out there, you never bother to go see.

So, if nothing else, I hope SERENITY becomes the bar by which all future sci-fi movies are judged by. I look forward to hearing "As exciting as it was, it still lacked the compelling story of Serenity" from an Ebert or Roper.

In that way, we will also have won, by quite possibly changing the industry's view of things, even if only slightly.

Can't say I'll ever be as big a fan of anything like I am with Firefly, but it would be nice to see some fresh sci-fi that is more than just CGI-candy.

"Advice from an old tracker...You want to find someone, use your eyes." - Malcolm Reynolds

BWAH!
TCM

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Monday, October 10, 2005 6:31 AM

BROWNCOATMONK

Quote:
Originally posted by StakeTheLurk:
Quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
I'm thinking about Island-effect for Serenity. The Island drops exactly the same 50+% in 2nd weekend, it's first weekend was $ 12,4 m and final gross is $ 35,8 m

In that way, Serenity can take $ 30+ m in USA only. And maybe - let's pray for that! - more in other world.

But... The Island never had such devoted fans like Serenity and such good word of mouth.
The Island also cost three times as much as our BDM ($120 million), so $35.8 million total US box office is terrible for them but nearly makes back the whole budget for Serenity. I'm hoping we'll beat them, though, we've got devoted fans and a movie that's actually good. So everyone keep spreading the word, posting guerrilla marketing, recommending it to undecideds at the theater, and seeing it ourselves. We're still flying and I'd like to keep it that way.

That's a fair hope. If only we were released on the original date of April 22, then the figures we would've made the first 2 weeks easily would've been doubled. I know Universal is sorry about that now (hmm all those summer blockbusters weren't and this summer movie didn't do so well in the fall--well duh!).

Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

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Monday, October 10, 2005 8:19 AM

RIJPE

I think that one of the reasons that Serenity is doing worse (so far!) than _The Island_ (and many movies along those lines) is that none of the actors are big box office draws. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love every actor in Serenity. However, there are certain well-known actors that can guarantee a movie will get $10 million in revenue opening weekend, even if the movie isn't any good! Partially this is because the actors are well known and pretty, and can count on being on tons of magazine covers, etc. which helps promote the film.

I am a bit disappointed in the marketing for Serenity and the box office revenues. However, I think that worldwide box office and DVD sales will be enough to get us at least one more movie. Or else.

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Monday, October 10, 2005 10:49 AM

RIPLEY

The suggestion to write SCI FI is a good one, provided y'all don't just go to SCIFI.COM and find any e-mail address you can and send e to that addy. I'm speaking as the editor of SCI FI Wire, one of the e addys you'll encounter. I have nothing to do with SCI FI Channel's programming decisions and hate getting spam from well-meaning fans, though I count myself as a Browncoat as well. Just a word to the wise. FWIW, you're best served sending actual snail mail to SCI FI at this address: 21st Floor, 30 Rockefeller Plaza, New York, NY 10112.

best,

Patrick Lee
News Editor
SCI FI Wire

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