Serenity Still Has Legs by iamspacecase

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Serenity Still Has Legs

POSTED BY: IAMSPACECASE
UPDATED: Tuesday, October 18, 2005 16:41
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VIEWED: 5786
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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 10:02 AM

I just got back from a early afternnon showing of Serenity and there were three people in the theatre. I live in a small city, Akron, OH and have been to afternoon showings, in the second week, where I was the only person in the theatre. I truly beleive this bodes well.

Imagination is more important than knowledge

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 10:08 AM

UMSUMAYYAH

There were about 6 people in the theater yesterday. Not bad for a monday afternoon.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 10:12 AM

MALICIOUS

I went Saturday evening (my 4th time) to the 7:40 show. The film had been moved to a smaller auditorium, but it was packed.

Mal-licious

I'm going to add cursing and the hurling about of things to my repertoire.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 10:21 AM

GATORMARC

BoxOfficeMojo has Monday's Numbers up:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

1) The Fog: $684,645
2) Elizabethtown: $671,478
3) Wallace and Grommit: $581,485
4) In Her Shoes: $514,509
5) Domino: $465,000
6) Flightplan: $418,894
7) Two for the Money: $407,490
8) Waiting: $365,232
9) A History of Violence: $315,000
10) Corpse Bride: $221,448
11) Serenity: $205,555

It was a down Monday for everyone.

GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 10:49 AM

TELEWILL

Quote:
Originally posted by iamspacecase:
I just got back from a early afternnon showing of Serenity and there were three people in the theatre. ...I truly beleive this bodes well.

I'm sure a sequal is on the way now.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 11:02 AM

INEVITABLEBETRAYAL

Quote:
Originally posted by telewill:

I'm sure a sequal is on the way now.

I second that emotion.

_______________________________________________
I wish I had a magical wish-granting plank.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 11:11 AM

AERYNLYN

I'm hoping we do get a sequel. It looks like slow going for now.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 11:39 AM

EMBERS

Quote:
Originally posted by AerynLyn:
I'm hoping we do get a sequel. It looks like slow going for now.

it is slow going...
but it would be cool if 'Serenity' could crawl back up into the top ten....
I would love for the BDM to stay on the screens for another couple of weeks
(or another couple of months!)

Regardless, we know the DVD sales will be gang-busters and it isn't like most other movies are doing great...
we are doing as well or better than most other films out now,
I'm sure we'll get our sequel eventually...
okay, so it won't be green lit this week...
but it isn't like Joss is available to work on it this week anyway.
So we can be patient, enjoy our DVD extras & comic books & anything else that is out there
(I'm still wanting a model of the ship)

**********************************************
watch the R. Tam Session vids: http://www.hittarivertam.nu/
and buy the 'Serenity' comics published by Dark Horse!

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:02 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
Regardless, we know the DVD sales will be gang-busters

I'd be cautious about optimism over DVD sales. A huge DVD sells something like 15mil copies (e.g. Shrek 2, The Incredibles). I haven't seen much data on how more modest sales go.

I started a thread - http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=2&t=14021 - to develop a more organized system for guessing all these numbers and Serenity's longterm profit/loss.

For DVD sales in particular, my thoughts were:

Total die-hard Firefly/Serenity fans number ~300,000. Each will buy an average of 2.5 copies. Non-rabid fans who saw Serenity in theaters will account for another 300,000 copies. People who were curious but passed on Serenity in theaters will account for 200,000 copies. That comes out to about 1.2 million copies sold.

If that sounds low to you, bear in mind that at $26.5mil (assuming $10/ticket), that's only 2.65 million people seeing Serenity in theaters. And many of those are repeat viewings by the fanbase. DVD sales will be good but not great. Expect more action on the rental side.

I'd love to be wrong about this. I'd love for 2mil Serenity DVDs to move through stores. I'd be ecstatic for 5mil. I just don't think it's likely.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:22 PM

ERINBC

Theater gross may also be low because folks are going to see matinees because they are cheaper...so one person going on Friday night gives Serenity $10 but one person going Sunday afternoon only gives it $5 so two people would have to go on Sunday to make the amount of money that one person made on Friday. Plus, speaking from experience, firefighters/cops/military get in for like $1 at some theaters after the movie's been out a week. Of course, my husband and I have been loyal and paid full price all the times we've been to see it.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:34 PM

DAVE7101

Up here in Canada... can't find a set of the DVD's anywhere... every single retailer is sold out. Asking a sales drone almost universally produces a 'we can't keep them in stock' type of response.

I've been trying to find a set of dvd's for over a week... it must bode well that a shipment of dvd's to futureshop (think circuit city) is snapped up the moment they hit the floor.

i'd love to have a set, but im happy they are out of stock just the same.... bring back the series!!!!

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:42 PM

EMBERS

the whole point of DVD sales is that they are purchased by people who do not go to the movies:

DVD sales have become a billion dollar industry
(with virtually no over-head they are pure profit):
http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2004-01-08-dvd-success_x.htm

I've been searching for totals of Firefly DVD sales and I haven't found actual numbers (I've heard it is closing on 1/4 of a million sold but I don't know what that is based on)
It is currently in the #4 position at Amazon in the USA:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/new-for-you/top-sellers/-/dvd/all
/ref=dp_pd_sr/103-3980050-1966268

so obviously I shouldn't be counting my chickens before they are hatched...
I'm just saying that in 2-3 years I'm expecting the total DVD sales will make Universal think it is time for a sequel...
I'm just saying that there is no reason to despair,
and every reason to be patient.

**********************************************
watch the R. Tam Session vids: http://www.hittarivertam.nu/
and buy the 'Serenity' comics published by Dark Horse!

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:46 PM

CONOR

dont forget us in Europe,its stil no.1 in the UK and here in Ireland and only the other night at 10pm at my 6th viewing it was completely packed out(this in the end of its 2nd week).So when the total for over here is added it can only help including all the positive reviews so i'm optimistic we will get something,i'm hoping for a new series as it means more.All the best.

conor chaney

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:57 PM

SEVREN

Everyone really needs to stay positive about this. Negativity seems to spread quicker and more easily than postive energy, so let's focus on the positive. I'm a relative newcomer. I had seem maybe a part of one episode on SciFi when I saw the movie, and now I am a fan and Browncoat for life. I'm sure I'm not the only one, and I kind of like having seen the movie before anything else. Now I've got all the books, the series and am taking my sister to the show tonight for my fourth and her second viewing. This is a sci-fi movie, with no "main stream" actors (I wouldn't trade anyone in the movie for any main stream actor). Except Bore-Wars, sci-fi movies have not fared that well recently. The slow demise of Star Trek is evidence of that. I think the movie has done quite respectible in light of all the factors. We've all got to hang on, think positively and just keep flyin'.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 12:58 PM

SEVREN

make that "seen"....spell check couldn't save me there!

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 1:05 PM

CHRISISALL

Remember Pitch Black? A little sci-fi flick that got a big sequel?

Serenity 2 WILL happen...just wait (and BUY the dvd, like more than once- and no LENDING! Tell peeps you can't be without it for even one night, you might suddenly need to watch it!)

We'll drive up those gorram #'s Chrisisall

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 1:16 PM

QUEENOFTHENORTH

I'm still planning on seeing it at least two more times, if not more, if it ever comes into the theatre in my small town. I know lots of other people that are still planning on seeing it as well. The biggest problem, in my mind, is availability. It's in hardly any theatres around Central Alberta. Had it come to my town right away, I'd have seen it probably six times already, and brought people with me too. As it is, I've only seen it once because I don't have the money to waste on gas driving to the city six times. But hopefully it will come to my town still so I can support it some more.

There's no place I can be since I've found serenity.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 1:22 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
the whole point of DVD sales is that they are purchased by people who do not go to the movies:

That's true. But if a movie doesn't make a big enough splash, the DVD buyers might not necessarily look that way. Either way I'm still hoping for 2mil+ copies sold.

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
DVD sales have become a billion dollar industry
(with virtually no over-head they are pure profit):
http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2004-01-08-dvd-success_x.htm

I'm more inclined to believe the Edward Jay Epstein article I cited in my other post - according to him DVD profits are 2/3 revenues (still excellent by any standards). Also according to him, in the first quarter of 2005 home video profits outgained box office profits by about 2.5 to 1.

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
I've been searching for totals of Firefly DVD sales and I haven't found actual numbers (I've heard it is closing on 1/4 of a million sold but I don't know what that is based on)

I thought I'd read that initial Firefly DVD sales were a shocking 300,000 which then rose more slowly to about 500k. With the added attention of Serenity, maybe it's approaching 750k...

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
I'm just saying that in 2-3 years I'm expecting the total DVD sales will make Universal think it is time for a sequel...

We're in complete agreement there. My profit/loss guesstimates on Serenity may not be at all accurate, but they make me feel good about the movie's chances to at least break even if not swing to a profit in the next two years.

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
I'm just saying that there is no reason to despair,
and every reason to be patient.

And I hope no one interpreted any of my comments as despair or negative thinking. I'm very hopeful and very optimistic - I'm just trying to hone that optimism around realistic expectations and realistic estimates.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 1:55 PM

JADEHAND

Ok, I'm not sure, so I'm asking....
What about the 1,000,000+ Blockbuster video, Hollywood video, and Mom and Pop video stores everywhere. Each of them will be putting an average of 15-20(smaller stores and towns maybe less)copies of Serenity on the shelf as rentals, and they aren't free to video stores. Doesn't that $$ go to Universal. I worked at a video store for a while, but I'm not sure how that aspect of it works. Anyone have actual information on this?

Visit WWW.Marillion.Com for a better way to live
"Dreaming the dream that only the sleepless know."

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 2:06 PM

UNSARDONIC

This is a worthwhile thread, dealing with a bunch of my own feelings.

First I'm very intrigued by what you had to say about how well it's doing in Europe (I even exchanged emails with somone from Estonia where they apparently have some rabid Browncoats).

I posted a note in another thread Sunday stating that, because of the $22+ million in US grosses & the $28+ million in worldwide gross, the movie had already covered its negative cost and was beginning to make a dent in its P&A budget. The negative cost was an INCOMPREHENSIBLY low $39 million - as reported in a 2-page LATimes feature article called "Down-home Directing" - I gave the article title because it was very EXcellent and, as of yesterday, it was still available on the L.A.Times website for downloading. Hell... I've gone multiple times because the thing's a frickin' master's class on economical filmmaking - I'm truly dumbfounded by how they all achieved this.

I liked what the fellow had to say about how we all needed to focus on the positive (as it was easier to spread negativity than positivity). However "non-blockbuster" the numbers may be, because of Joss's amazing ability to shoot a movie for cheaper than anyone else, it may well be profitable in rather short order... especially if it's still #1 in England and other places.

As to how full the theaters are, I live in Hollywood and here, I went (my 4th time) to a Sunday (3rd weekend) matinee that was nearly full - and the entire audience still applauded the credits! I took that to mean there were a bunch of new viewers there and that was very reassuring, because maybe it's not moving so fast in some towns but here, it's got quite a following.

So, to do my bit to "spread the positivity," I've decided that I'm going every weekend while it's in the theater. "Star Wars" is done - "Lord of the Rings" is done... this is my newest alternate universe.... and a master's class in creating one cheaply.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 2:45 PM

IAMSPACECASE

My general feeling has been a negative one, regarding the posibility of a sequal. A lot of this seems to be from interpreting Joss's post. Pooh on that. Being an old military man, I see all of this being an attempt to stir the Browncoats into a PR frenzy. They have counted heavily on the fan base for PR for this movie. I'm not a Hollywood executive, just a fan and a veteran that has learned to think on his own. I have no idea on the inner workings of hollywood, but this is a cash cow. From my experiences in the theatre, I would say that this film mainly appeals to the thirty and on up crowd, at least in the states. You are seeing alot of eighties re-releases, new Dallas movie, Dukes of Hazard, ect., because this age group has alot of disposable income. I'm hoping that we don't get a Dukes of Hazard sequal though.

This is also the age group raised on Star Wars. Lucas didn't finish the SW series for the love of his fans he did it for $. Fantasy is the hot thing right now; LOTR, Harry Potter, Narnia, Serenity, the list goes on, Cash Cow. Lucas is switching to the small screen. I can only guess that the millions that he is dropping into his two TV series is going to pay off. Follow the cash you will find Lucas. So, gorram the negativity, I can't beleive the execs at Unoversal are stupid, but you never know. Shinny

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 3:02 PM

IAMSPACECASE

Quote:

I'm sure a sequal is on the way now.

There were three people watching Serenity. There is ten movies showing at this theatre. There were three people in the whole theatre. Serenity was the only movie people were in. I would say that was a pretty positive sign, espicially for a small city.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 3:06 PM

OPPYH

I plan to see it 3 more times,(6 total) and I have friends and family all lined up to see it with me. I'm not letting it fade. I'm going out strong.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 3:41 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by Jadehand:
Ok, I'm not sure, so I'm asking....
What about the 1,000,000+ Blockbuster video, Hollywood video, and Mom and Pop video stores everywhere. ... Doesn't that $$ go to Universal.

I believe the rental biz is all revenue sharing these days. The major studios supply the DVDs then split the profits (perhaps the studios get an additional amount to offset their initial costs of providing the DVDs). I guesstimated the revenue split at 40% for the studios.

One could probably infer more accurate numbers by studying a Blockbuster quarterly report, but that's a bit too much effort even for me.

The previously viewed DVDs that rental stores sell also have profit sharing arrangements with the studios. I was just reading something about this - revenue from previously viewed DVD sales is definitely rising.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 3:51 PM

CHRISTHECYNIC

Depressing person that I am I want to call your attention to what Box Office Mojo had to say about Serenity over the weekend:

Quote:
Meanwhile, Serenity burnt off 54 percent of its business, landing at 12th place with $2.4 million. Despite a supposedly dedicated fan base, the $39 million space western has performed like a below average genre picture.

And here I thought we were actually loyal.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 3:54 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by Unsardonic:
I posted a note in another thread Sunday stating that, because of the $22+ million in US grosses & the $28+ million in worldwide gross, the movie had already covered its negative cost and was beginning to make a dent in its P&A budget.

Unfortunately that "$28mil worldwide" number is composed of $22mil US and only $6mil foreign. So it's no where near its production cost of $39mil.

Besides, at best Universal gets only 50% of the worldwide box office. Then you have to deduct for advertising, prints, dubbing, taxes, etc in each country. I guesstimated those costs to be around $12mil.

Quote:
Originally posted by Unsardonic:
The negative cost was an INCOMPREHENSIBLY low $39 million - as reported in a 2-page LATimes feature article called "Down-home Directing" - I gave the article title because it was very EXcellent and, as of yesterday, it was still available on the L.A.Times website for downloading. Hell... I've gone multiple times because the thing's a frickin' master's class on economical filmmaking - I'm truly dumbfounded by how they all achieved this.

Yes, that article is a great read. And the more goodwill Joss can generate around Hollywood, the better for all of us!

Quote:
Originally posted by Unsardonic:
As to how full the theaters are, I live in Hollywood and here, I went (my 4th time) to a Sunday (3rd weekend) matinee that was nearly full - and the entire audience still applauded the credits! I took that to mean there were a bunch of new viewers there and that was very reassuring, because maybe it's not moving so fast in some towns but here, it's got quite a following.

That's good to hear. I think the Arclight dumped Serenity after the second week. I took that to be a bad sign. But I guess it just funneled more eager viewers to the theater you were at.

Here's my bit of positivity to spread:

I'm proud to say that my personal Serenity contribution is 17 tickets (counting myself and the friends and family I convinced to go see it who otherwise would've passed on it). I think I'll be able to break 20 as soon as I motivate a few more folks this coming weekend.

Oh and, of course, everyone enjoyed it and was glad that I had convinced them to see it!

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 3:59 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by christhecynic:
Quote:
Meanwhile, Serenity burnt off 54 percent of its business, landing at 12th place with $2.4 million. Despite a supposedly dedicated fan base, the $39 million space western has performed like a below average genre picture.

And here I thought we were actually loyal.

We are loyal, we're just smallish in number. I think 300,000 is a reasonable guess for the number of really rabid Firefly fans there were before Serenity opened. The good news is that I'm sure that number is growing every day as more people are exposed to this creation.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 4:09 PM

UNSARDONIC

Ah-HAH!!

Are you positive about the US domestic being part of the worldwide gross? The way I read it seemed to imply that the worldwide was MINUS the U.S. ...but definitely you could be right.

And you obviously live in LA. Arclight didn't specifically "dump" it. They put it on screen #9 and then spent the entire weekend having a "Private Screening" on that screen. I had gone there on Friday afternoon to about 20 enthusiastic folk but Sunday ended up at the Grove - that was full and rockin'! It's wierd to me that Arclight might dump it and the Grove not, because they're both part of the Pacific chain.

But you're right about P&A costs etc... however I figured if there really were an almost $60-million worldwide gross (badly wrong if your data is correct), that would start to mitigate those costs. Did you have a solid source for that info?

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 4:20 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by Unsardonic:
And you obviously live in LA. Arclight didn't specifically "dump" it. They put it on screen #9 and then spent the entire weekend having a "Private Screening" on that screen. I had gone there on Friday afternoon to about 20 enthusiastic folk but Sunday ended up at the Grove - that was full and rockin'! It's wierd to me that Arclight might dump it and the Grove not, because they're both part of the Pacific chain.

Ah, okay. I ended up taking a second group to see Serenity the second weekend at The Bridge 'cause I didn't see it listed at the Arclight any more.

The first weekend was impressive though - theater must've been full of hardcore Firefly fans because in the full theater only THREE people left when the credits started rolling! Everyone else stayed through the end. I've never seen that before (I personally was hoping to see the Mutant Enemy logo at the end but was disappointed when he didn't make an appearance!).

Also I think the editor, Lisa Lassek, was in the audience that night (Sat) with a group of her friends - there was a smattering of applause when her named appeared in the front-end credits and then I thought I recognized her afterwards. The group of friends around her sounded like they were congratulating her, so the pieces seem to fit. Gotta love living in LA.

Quote:
Originally posted by Unsardonic:
But you're right about P&A costs etc... however I figured if there really were an almost $60-million worldwide gross (badly wrong if your data is correct), that would start to mitigate those costs. Did you have a solid source for that info?

Unfortunately, yes. The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, and boxofficemojo.com all list the foreign cume as $6mil, US cume as $22mil, worldwide adding up to $28mil.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 4:24 PM

DREAMTROVE

I think Serenity has proven itself in two important areas:

1. It revived interest in the series.
2. It received accolades for quality including a place on the IMDB all time best movies.

I accept that it was a box office bomb, but that's only one area, and it's not the one Joss cares about, so I'm not too worked up about it.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 4:41 PM

UNSARDONIC

Oh dear,

We may have met then:

{QUOTE] Also I think the editor, Lisa Lassek, was in the audience that night (Sat) with a group of her friends - there was a smattering of applause when her named appeared in the front-end credits and then I thought I recognized her afterwards. The group of friends around her sounded like they were congratulating her, so the pieces seem to fit. Gotta love living in LA.

I was there that night having a GREAT time - I remember that particular applause & laughter - & I was one of those guys staying through to the last credit. I was in the first row (which I bought out the center of for my family) & the guys right behind me said you had to sit through all the credits to get to the original "Firefly" theme, which we did.

But I was really amazed by the full theater applause at the Grove this last Sunday (3 weeks later) (as you said, I love living in LA) - that was such an uplift.

Somebody - maybe you, I don't remember - had a note about the "hardcore" Browncoat fanbase being really about 300,000 - but ...they were that-many-and-growing... so, in the interest of the signal being unstoppable... my 2-cents worth (Universal - Joss... anybody who's listenin'):

I WANT -

1). ALL of the sequels - DAMMIT! they're gonna be SO MUCH better than all of those "Star Trek" movies (Sorry Patrick Stewart, nothing personal... I liked 'em well enough and you always ROCK, doncha know)... however many sequels Joss feels like want to exist. ("You can't stop the" ...writer)

2). A new TV series(s)... both, they & the movie(s) have their excellent purpose(s) and they complement and supplement each other.

Damn... I love how the Zoic guys make the ship shake while the music thunders in the BDM's opening credit sequence. "Joss Whedon" must "be my new master now" as I simply cannot get this movie, all of its scenes and all of its lines out of my head and it just is the only thing I want to see. All those other flicks out there are fine, I'm sure... but they just don't make me "Care" like the "Serenity" 'verse does.

HOHOHO

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