Serenity DVDs--Not the Safe Bet Everyone Thinks by StakeTheLurk

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Serenity DVDs--Not the Safe Bet Everyone Thinks

POSTED BY: STAKETHELURK
UPDATED: Monday, October 31, 2005 18:13
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Friday, October 21, 2005 6:19 AM

So, today Serenity drops to 871 theaters in the US and Canada. That leaves it out of reach of many Browncoats and most sizable audiences. Those who can should still go see the film; it’s holding strong in some local markets, especially the Pacific Northwest. Every penny helps and the longer we can keep it in at least some theaters, the more pennies come in. But despite that, the domestic box office is pretty much over. Things could still do well internationally--or the UK thing (yay UK Browncoats!) could turn out to be just a fluke. I’ll stress that our BDM hasn’t bombed, per se, but we’re not where we want to be when it comes to continuing the ‘verse.

(To correct a misconception I keep seeing, the decision on whether to continue the ‘verse (via sequels, series, etc) is not ultimately up to Joss. It is up to Universal. Joss can want to continue to the story, but he can’t do it without funding. Sure, he was able to push through Serenity with help from the Browncoats, but Uni’s decision to pay for the film was ultimately a financial one--which so far hasn’t panned out. Joss can be as persistent and persuasive as possible, but if the bean counters don’t think it will add up, nothing will happen.)

One mantra that’s helped us through this is of course, “This thing will kill on DVD.” It seems to make sense; after all, “Firefly” has been doing unbelievably well on DVD. But there are several major obstacles to DVD success I don’t think everyone is aware of.

Studios tend to be very tight-lipped about the sales of ancillary products (no doubt in an attempt to hide the amount of cash they’re raking in), and that makes it difficult for us to examine the numbers. Thus, no one really knows how many “Firefly” DVDs have been sold to this date. One figure that was tossed around before the movie came out was 500,000 sets sold. So let’s go with that. It has been mentioned as a very good figure--very good for TV. The box set sells for (rough average) $40 bucks. So, 500k sold = $20 million. But movie DVDs cost much less, usually around $20 when they first hit stores. So if every browncoat who bought a set of “Firefly” goes out and gets Serenity on DVD, that amounts to a grand total of $10 million. And $10 million in DVDs does not a sequel make. My utterly uninformed guess says we need to at least hit $20 million before we’ll even pique the studio’s interest, and $30-40 million before we’ll come close to that $80 million goal.

That means Serenity must outsell “Firefly.” By a factor of 3. Minimum.

And that, fellow browncoats, is a huge amount of DVDs. 1.5 million, minimum (2 million would be much better). If every browncoat in the US & Canada bought three copies of the DVD, we’d be okay--but they won’t. A few might be unaware of the plight we’re in. Of those who do know, some won’t be able to afford it. Others won’t do it on principle. And others were disappointed by the film and won’t bother to buy it at all when it comes out. Which leaves the rest of us. And while I’m sure we’ll do what we can to help the BDM, it may well not be enough.

I write this not to demoralize people, but rather to motivate them. We’ve got a window of several months between now and when the DVDs hit shelves. We must take advantage of this period to ensure strong DVD sales. Here’s some ideas I’ve had about how we can do that.

--Get more people to watch Serenity. Although it’s slipping out of theaters quickly, we need to make sure as many people as possible go to see it now. Not only will their money help the box office, but many (if not most) of them will then happily buy the DVD when it comes out.

--Convert like never before. We all know the fans will buy this DVD, so the easiest way to get big sales is to get more fans. If the BDM is no longer playing in a theater near you, “Firefly” is the best way to get ‘em hooked. Show the series to as many people as you can and encourage your fledgling browncoats to do the same with their circle of acquaintances. We got months to do this, so really work at it (though don’t be too fanatical, that tends to drive people off). Be sure to tell everybody you hook on the series about the movie that hits DVD December 20. If you’ve already talked it up to everyone you know, well, try again if it’s appropriate, ask what converts you’ve made to be sure to spread the word themselves, and then focus your efforts on guerrilla marketing. It’s time we put up more “Firefly” ads, hopefully ones mentioning the BDM’s DVD release date as well. Those ads will be seen by lots of folks you haven’t spoken with directly, and we need to put them up everywhere we can.

--Show people the 9 minute clip. Some have said the best advertisement for the film is the film itself, so if you can’t get people to even commit to a single “Firefly” episode, maybe show them this to whet their appetite for the Serenity DVD.

--Spread the River Tam Sessions. EDITED TO ADD this. (I can't believe I forgot this.) It's debatable as to whether the online viral marketing scheme had enough time to boost ticket sales, but what *isn't* debatable is that we have several extra months to build up some viral steam. Spread the vids to as many folks as you (politely) can. The chief website for this is www.session416.com, where you can download every clip.

--Stockpile money for the DVDs. It can be hard for some to come up with the petty cash for things like this, especially if you hope to buy multiple copies. So I suggest putting money aside now. A little bit here and there and you’ll be all set to buy plenty of copies when the DVDs hit shelves.

That’s pretty much all I’ve got right now, I hope other people use this thread to contribute additional ideas. The point is, we can’t spend these months leading up to the DVD release just hoping the DVD will rescue us. We need to do something to make that a reality, and we can get to work right now. This battle ain’t over, but it will be if we just sit here waiting for DVDs to save us. Let’s get out there and make sure that when this movie hits selves it will reach as many people as possible.

This is the only Firefly/Serenity site I post on, so if folks want to spread this message (or the gist of it) to other boards, that’d be right helpful. We need everybody who can to get involved in this if we want more of the ‘verse.

For some additional (slightly different) information about DVD sales and other financial matters, check out Ebanzai’s thread on how to guesstimate Serenity’s profit/loss: http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=2&t=14021

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Friday, October 21, 2005 6:37 AM

SPDRPARKER

Have you factored in the rental idea?

Most rental houses, Blockbuster and Hollywood Video the largest, don't carry too many random television series, and I know the ones around here didn't carry Firefly.

But they WILL carry Serenity.

This will also get people to have a new viewing and or buy it. Also the money from the rental houses having it will contribute. Not sure how those work, necessarily, but it will be a boost comparitively to the Firefly DVDs.

This most likely won't be a saving grace, but it is a bonus to add on.

And how does Pay Per View work into these factors?

Then you have to consider how many people would have found Firefly just by rental. And consider that a movie will more likely always sell more than a television series. Due to both cost, and you have to consider that there will be people who enjoy Serenity who know nothing of the television show.

I still hope to do as much as possible. I'm still trying my best to get the word spread, and contributing numbers.

But I'm not too worried. It may not be guarenteed any time in the very near future, but I feel we'll get the continuation eventually.

Just need to be patient.

Corbitt
Just that gorram shiny

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Friday, October 21, 2005 6:51 AM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
Have you factored in the rental idea?

Rentals may help us, yes, but...

Movie sales and movie rentals are down this year by 25-30% (don't have specifics with me at the moment), while TV sales are up (not sure about rentals). Rental stores also tend to get lots of copies of top-grossing films, but only a few copies of other films--which means fewer people will even have the opportunity to even rent it. And of course, the studio gets a much smaller cut of rentals than it does from DVD sales, so I'm focusing on those.

Quote:
I still hope to do as much as possible. I'm still trying my best to get the word spread, and contributing numbers.

That what I hope people are doing. Because, we can't simply assume that DVD sales are going to be big. We have to make it so, and we've got only a limited amount of time to prepare. I'm no expert, but every expert I've heard has felt that getting the level of DVD sales (and rentals, etc…) necessary for a sequel is going to be very difficult. I just want everyone to follow your example and not just take DVD success for granted.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 7:27 AM

HJERMSTED

Here are some factors to consider re: a Serenity sequel:

* A sequel won't happen any time soon (even if Universal were to greenlight it today). Joss has two motion pictures to write and direct... Wonder Woman and Goners. A Serenity sequel probably couldn't even go into production for another three years.

* The Firefly DVD set has been on the market for almost two years now. It will have been on the market for five years (Serenity for three years) by the time Joss could start working on a sequel.

Should the Firefly DVD set and the Serenity DVD keep selling at the even clip (established by Firefly) over the course of the next two years, who knows what Universal or Fox might do with the franchise?

Cash cows are not born over night!

If Wonder Woman pulls impressive box office numbers, Joss could be very much in demand. He may even find himself in a position to play hardball ("Sure, I'll do a movie for you, but first.." Serenity sequel, etc.)

If Goners scores for Universal, perhaps Joss won't even need to play hardball to convince them to do a Serenity sequel.

mattro

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Friday, October 21, 2005 7:38 AM

RONAN

I don't think you can ignore the international market. I know the film has been doing very well here in Ireland and sci fi doesn't normally do very well at all. You've also got countries like Australia with a big population and a good possibility of fans.

There's also the merchandising - what there is; and there really could be more. I can't get the Serenity novelisation at the moment because Amazon in the UK have run out so I have to wait for another couple of weeks before it will get to me. Is that not a good sign?

I'm staying positive and with such a fanbase we are looking at a classic Trek situation of die-hard fans who will put themselves out there for the cause. Plus we have the internet at our disposal - little old me here in little old Ireland can make my point to the big boys in the US of A.

Positive thoughts...positive thoughts...

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Friday, October 21, 2005 8:40 AM

HOWARD

The population of Australia in a land mass bigger
than Western Europe is only the size of The
Netherlands a tiny land-mass country.

Canada has a land-mass twice the size of the USA
with a population only half that of the UK and a
mere 1/10th of the population of the USA.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 8:51 AM

BARCLAY

The fight for the US box office is over. We lost. If Serenity is still playing near you, do what you've done for the past 3 weeks, so it again. Bring friends. But the fact of the matter is, Serenity was just a blip on the US BO screens. We can play the blame game in the next 3 years before the sequel comes out, but there's still work to be done.

If you're in an international market, go see Serenity. Many times. With many friends. This is pretty standard at this point. The goal at this point it to get total gross above the base production costs ($39 mil). This way, secondary sales start to chip right into advertising expenses, and then profit.

Don't expect Universal to greenlight a sequel right away. Joss has other projects (Wonder Woman, Goners), and those are going to get done before Serenity 2 would anyways. This gives us an opportunity.

Firefly DVD sales have been steady, even 3 years after the show aired and two years after they came out. Guess what folks? Time to do the same thing for Serenity. It having a much nicer price than the $40 Firefly set should help you get some of your cheaper friends to pick it up. Keep at it. Even if a sequel isn't announced, cause, you know, the movie's just that good.

And have heart. I get a feeling Universal likes Joss. The fact he delivered Serenity ON TIME and ON BUDGET is huge! And they did greenlight Goners. Fight's not over (It never is).

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Friday, October 21, 2005 9:03 AM

JAYNEANDVERA

I just want to see more of the verse, but at the same time I can't wait until Im able to buy the DVD of "Serenity". I will be dancing like this guy ( www.ditty-o.com) when I return from the store with it.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 9:57 AM

STEVE580

I'll be buying a dozen copies of Serenity, at least. Remember, it's coming out right before Christmas - which means no surprizes for anyone that recieves gifts from I.
-Steve

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Friday, October 21, 2005 10:11 AM

THELURKER

Quote:
We lost.

We're known for that.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 11:26 AM

REGINAROADIE

You're looking at DVD sales, but I think DVD RENTALS can also be a factor in determining SERENITY'S success.

Cases in point. The first AUSTIN POWERS was a small sized hit in theatres. It ended up doing phenominally well on video. That lead to the greenlighting of THE SPY WHO SHAGGED ME, which did more in it's opening weekend than the first movie's entire theatrical run. Same thing with THE BOURNE IDENTITY. Ended up being the #1 rental DVD of 2003, I think, and made way for the bigger hit of THE BOURNE SUPREMACY.

And recently, KINGDOM OF HEAVEN, which only made $47 million in it's theatrical run, is the #1 rental and seller, I think, with a 3 disc director's cut of the flick coming out soon.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
XANDER: (baby-talk) Who's a little fear demon?
C'mon, who's a lit-tle fear demon?
GILES: Don't taunt the fear demon.
XANDER: Why? Can he hurt me?
GILES: No, it's just… tacky.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 11:55 AM

ROBBS

I agree with the comparisons to Bourne, etc. Chance for some momentum when it hits the rental phase, leading into possibly a second. But I'm more curious about what it would take to get it to the SciFi channel or FX or something. I know SciFi passed on it the first time around but this seems to fit well with Battlestar Galactica, SG1 & some of their other shows. Plus I think most of us would enjoy getting back to a serialized version of the show. That being said I have doubts about Universal (or whoever actually owns rights to future versions) giving up those rights to allow it to hit the small screen. Would be pretty sweet though!

You can't open the book of my life and jump in the middle. Like woman, I'm a mystery.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 12:06 PM

HANOVERFIST

This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable

Now before you all jump down my throat, let me explain my viewpoint. I LOVE Firefly, and watch all of the episodes every few months or so, painful as that might be (Why only 12!).

But the probem with Serenity is that for myself it is just not a fun movie. Is it a good movie? Hell yeah! But it is not one that I would sit down to watch over, and over, and over.

Aside from the fact that as a fan it is difficult to watch two of my favorite characters die, it is just too much of a downer for it to be fun. I am reminded of what Simon said in Out of Gas: (paraphrasing) I always thought Serenity had a funerial sound to it. I come away from the movie just too depressed and bummed-out to call it enjoyable. Just because it is more of our BDHs isn't enough.

I have heard some compare this to Star Wars or in this thread Austin Powers. The big difference is that those movies are fun. They are not necessarily better (especially Austin Powers...yuck) but they are more fun. At the end of Star Wars you get to see this ragtag group of rebels deal a devastating blow to a (nearly) all-powerful galactic empire. (sound familiar?) But in Serenity, you just feel like you got your ribs kickid in...no fun. Realistic, maybe, but not fun.

That is why I fear that this movie will not have legs. Thus I really feel like Serenity was the last nail in Firefly's coffin.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 12:10 PM

REGINAROADIE

I'm only mentioning AUSTIIN POWERS as a hopeful model of financial success. NOT as a parallel of quality.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
XANDER: (baby-talk) Who's a little fear demon?
C'mon, who's a lit-tle fear demon?
GILES: Don't taunt the fear demon.
XANDER: Why? Can he hurt me?
GILES: No, it's just… tacky.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 1:41 PM

STAKETHELURK

The impression I’m getting from responses so far is that folks think I’m saying success* is impossible, that I’m a pessimist. That’s not exactly what I was going for. The purpose of this thread is to mobilize people, not to tell them a continuation of the ‘verse is impossible. I am optimistic about a continuation of the ‘verse, but I feel we need to be active now if we want to get it. If we just assume it’ll do well enough for us to get more and leave it at that, well, “that’s a long wait for a train don’t come.”

Quote:
Originally posted by Ronan:
I don't think you can ignore the international market. I know the film has been doing very well here in Ireland and sci fi doesn't normally do very well at all.

I’m not dismissing the international market, indeed I’m hoping it’ll contribute $20-30 million all told--since the UK box office usually makes up 10% of the international take and they've made over $3 million so far. But, I do note that the surprisingly high turnout in the UK may turn out to be a fortunate fluke (I don't have data on Ireland, just the UK). However, there’s nothing fans in the US & Canada can do about the international box office (besides urging international browncoats to do everything they can to help the film in their respective countries). What browncoats in the US & Canada can do is prep for the DVD release.

Quote:
Originally posted by ReginaRoadie:
You're looking at DVD sales, but I think DVD RENTALS can also be a factor in determining SERENITY'S success.

I’m not dismissing rentals--although they do produce less money for the studio than DVD sales (hence the emphasis on those). Worse, rentals are down this year and in response the rental shops are ordering 50% fewer copies of films that didn’t hit #1. That means less visibility and fewer rentals. What I am trying to do here is say that we can’t simply assume that Serenity will do well in rentals or sales. Most of us assumed the BDM would open at #1 with at least $15 million in the first three days ( http://fireflyfans.net/pollresults.asp?pid=21). We were wrong then. I don’t want us to be wrong now. I want us to do everything we can to make sure that DVD sales and rentals do meet our expectations. We need to be proactive about this, and we can take action now.

Quote:
Originally posted by Hjermsted:
Firefly DVD sales have been steady, even 3 years after the show aired and two years after they came out. Guess what folks? Time to do the same thing for Serenity….Should the Firefly DVD set and the Serenity DVD keep selling at the even clip (established by Firefly) over the course of the next two years, who knows what Universal or Fox might do with the franchise?

The problem is, movie DVDs are different from TV DVDs. Movie sales are down by 25% this year, a larger trend that could hurt us in the stores just like the general drop off of theater attendance hurt us at the box office. TV DVDs are measured on a different scale of success from movie DVDs--because TV DVDs are more expensive. If 20th Century Fox sells 500,000 “Firefly” DVDs, they will make $20 million. If Universal sells 500,000 Serenity DVDs, they will make $10 million. So, if we sell Serenity DVDs in the same numbers as “Firefly,” we will not make enough money to get any continuation.

If we all just smile, go about our business for the next few months, and then buy two copies of the DVDs when they come out, we will fail. If the Serenity DVD does just as well as the “Firefly” DVDs, we will fail. I don’t want us to fail, but the past has shown that when we get complacent and assume success, we get a horrible surprise. On the other hand, when we mobilize we can do the impossible. Let’s be mighty again, and do everything we can in the US & Canada to make sure the BDM is picked up by as many people as possible on DVD (be it rentals or sales). There is a huge mass of people out there who’ve never even heard of Serenity or “Firefly.” We can’t assume those folks will magically decide to buy or rent this film they’ve heard nothing about. We also can’t assume that there are hordes of film buffs or sci-fi geeks who avoided the film in theaters but will pick it up on DVD--I’m sure there are a few of them, but since we have no definite numbers for them we can’t simply assume there are lots of them. We can only rely on ourselves right now, so let’s get to work and build up a market for the DVDs by getting people to see the movie (if it’s still out near you), converting folks with the series, and showing people the 9 minutes online.

The fight is not over, but if we wait for Dec 20 before we reenter the fray, we’ll lose.

*When I talk about success and failure of the BDM, I’m not talking about it making a profit, I’m talking about it doing well enough to get Universal to approve a continuation of the ‘verse.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 1:52 PM

SIMONWHO

I agree with the points above that Serenity will permeate the Firefly universe into the mainstream. It may not even be until it has been aired on network television that enough people will be properly 'aware' of the verse to want a sequel.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 2:01 PM

PHOEBE

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable

Now before you all jump down my throat, let me explain my viewpoint. I LOVE Firefly, and watch all of the episodes every few months or so, painful as that might be (Why only 12!).

But the probem with Serenity is that for myself it is just not a fun movie. Is it a good movie? Hell yeah! But it is not one that I would sit down to watch over, and over, and over.

Aside from the fact that as a fan it is difficult to watch two of my favorite characters die, it is just too much of a downer for it to be fun. I am reminded of what Simon said in Out of Gas: (paraphrasing) I always thought Serenity had a funerial sound to it. I come away from the movie just too depressed and bummed-out to call it enjoyable. Just because it is more of our BDHs isn't enough.

I have heard some compare this to Star Wars or in this thread Austin Powers. The big difference is that those movies are fun. They are not necessarily better (especially Austin Powers...yuck) but they are more fun. At the end of Star Wars you get to see this ragtag group of rebels deal a devastating blow to a (nearly) all-powerful galactic empire. (sound familiar?) But in Serenity, you just feel like you got your ribs kickid in...no fun. Realistic, maybe, but not fun.

That is why I fear that this movie will not have legs. Thus I really feel like Serenity was the last nail in Firefly's coffin.

Just felt the need to point out that - I disagree. I think Serenity is the most re-watchable film I've ever seen. Personally I've seen it at least 15 times (obsessive? Sure, but I'm happy that way) and I know many UK browncoats who've been going to see it every day or every couple of days. And it never gets old. In fact, depending on the atmosphere and your mood it can be even more moving the 15th time around than the first. Certainly I had tears in my eyes more than once the last time I saw it. And I'm glad that I did. I'm glad that it made me sad, even after seeing it 15 times. That's true genius.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 2:12 PM

JOEMO

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:

I have heard some compare this to Star Wars or in this thread Austin Powers. The big difference is that those movies are fun. They are not necessarily better (especially Austin Powers...yuck) but they are more fun. At the end of Star Wars you get to see this ragtag group of rebels deal a devastating blow to a (nearly) all-powerful galactic empire. (sound familiar?) But in Serenity, you just feel like you got your ribs kickid in...no fun. Realistic, maybe, but not fun.

I think your wrong. I think for any one of us that really knew these characters, yes it was a K. O. so see two characters die as they did. But to a new commer it does not affect them the same. I think we will see a boost in Firefly dvd sales and Serenity sales will be good.

I don't know if this will be enough for a second movie. But here is something to think about. I think we all agree that any second movie will be a long time comming. To dump on top of that, two three years down the road will Joss be able to wrangle up the crew again? They will not just sit on their thumbs and wait. Alan Tudyk is already becoming a star on Broadway.... The only chance now may be to go back to t.v.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 2:36 PM

TINFOIL

Quote:
Originally posted by joemo:

I think we all agree that any second movie will be a long time comming. To dump on top of that, two three years down the road will Joss be able to wrangle up the crew again? They will not just sit on their thumbs and wait. Alan Tudyk is already becoming a star on Broadway.... The only chance now may be to go back to t.v.

And here is where my greatest concern comes in. What happens if the crew or even Joss doesn't want to make another one? If the movie would have made 100+ million dollars, it would have been a LOT more likely that everyone would have been on-board because of the money involved. A labor of love doesn't pay the tax man, if you know what I'm saying (unless you're a companion, but let's not get side tracked). I mean, I'm going to spread Firefly/Serenity around to everyone I can, but it's not in the hopes of getting another movie/show... And it shouldn't be for that, ever. Spread it around because you want other people to experience the incredible fun of this show.

As cold as it might sound, I'm to the point where Firefly is dead outside of its fan base. I plan on buying five copies of the movie for Christmas (Best friend, other best friend, co-worker, brother, and myself), but I'm buying them for the right reasons. I want everyone to enjoy the show because it's good. I'm happy to have this wonderful setting for Fan Fiction/Films/Music. That's far more then I have for my Futurama love.

Long story short, let's enjoy what we have. We've done the impossible by getting a failed TV show to the big screen and that makes us mighty... Now we should spread the joy and STAY FANS not for the greedy reasons of getting more shows, but for the right reasons of sharing our passion.

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Friday, October 21, 2005 4:02 PM

SHINY

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable.

:: wonders how he's managed to see a not-very-re-watchable film twelve times already ::

---

Serenity is coming. 9/30/05.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 2:28 AM

RONAN

On the re-watchability of Serenity, I think there is a point. Yes it is indeed a good strong film. But it is a lot darker than many of the episodes.

And with where we are left at the end of the film we all know that whatever happens re a sequel or tv series in the future we know that things will never be the same again.

So, are we looking for a continuation of Firefly as it was - which is now not possible because of Serenity's storyline.

Or, do we want to see where it can be taken and if it can be taken any further. I know I still have questions and I really would like to hear and see some more.

Will I re-watch Serenity - you bet but that's because I like that darkness and as a writer my brain is thinking storylines for what could happen next and how and why certain things happened in the film.

I'm still going to stay positive. I will continue to hope that there is a chance...

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 4:23 AM

HANOVERFIST

Quote:
Originally posted by Shiny:
Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable.

:: wonders how he's managed to see a not-very-re-watchable film twelve times already ::

---

Serenity is coming. 9/30/05.

Now let's be realistic. You have to know that watching a movie 12+ times in a theater in three weeks time is not normal. I do not mean to say that YOU are abnormal, but you have to admit your love of Serenity is abnormal. I know my love for Firefly is abnormal.

My point is that I do not believe that in terms of mass appeal generating the necessary revenue stream for Universal, Serenity is not going to make it. As I said Serenity is a good movie, but I do not think it was good enough follow-up to Firefly-which was GREAT.

I also want to say that I fully plan on buying the DVD the day it comes out. I still like the movie quite a bit, and plan on giving a few Serenity gifts for X-mas as well. But I do think it is correct to say that Firefly is essentially dead. It is just a damn bitter pill to swallow.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 8:41 AM

AFKAMM

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
I LOVE Firefly, and watch all of the episodes every few months or so, painful as that might be (Why only 12!).

You miss counted. There are 14 episodes, 15 if you count the pilot as being 2.

Only 12 were shown on Fox before the show was cancelled, though from what I've read elsewhere, Sci-Fi are now showing Firefly so all 14 can be seen there.... or you could buy the DVD boxset.

--
Marc :)

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 9:03 AM

WHOISRIVER

Quote:
Most rental houses, Blockbuster and Hollywood Video the largest, don't carry too many random television series, and I know the ones around here didn't carry Firefly.

But they WILL carry Serenity.

I hate to bring (yet more!) bad news, but just wanted to say Blockbuster are in a contract dispute with Universal Home Video at the moment, and they planning to drop all Universal titles in December (when the DVD will likely appear) if the contract disbute isn't sorted.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 9:12 AM

BRIONJAEGER

Greetings&Felecitations:

I think what will make the movie see-able over and over is the fact that despite loosing two main characters, it is River who lifts the ship from the dock and up into space. When you look at her character going from almost totally institutional to piloting a starship, there has to be something there... There are too many story possibilities to go on with.
Things could be worse for us, as someone said, "We've done the impossible with a series canceled midway through the first season and brought it to the big screen and that makes us mighty." It does, we could have ended up with a Farscape mini series instead on some off night on Fox. Maybe they will re-look the series idea, or move the seqeul up.
The DVD of the movie will sell well just because it was a darn good movie and people will be expecting to see more than what was just up on the big screen. I've seen it twice in theatre and plan on giving it as a gift a couple of times. Serenity will at the least make a modest profit. Remember in the USA, there was Katrina and Rita plus the awful spike in gas prices. Nothing did as well as it could have done.
The Wonder Woman movie and Goner are news to me, have no idea of the cast or story line (beyond the WW comic)but can only hope that they add to Josh's ability to get a movie he wants made into production.
Angmar/LNA

Zoe, "Once you've been in Serenity, how could you ever leave?"

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 9:51 AM

RABBIT2

Just what are the figures and how do they compare with other movies out at the moment.
Is there any hard data or is everyone just guestimating?
If Universal realy expected Serenity to be a blockbuster they would have released it back in July or August. I think they probably see it as a cult movie thats going to make them a small profit in the short term but do much better in the long run with the DVD sales and TV rights.
So the real question is, has it made more than its production costs? If it has then a sequel is a good prospect. A new TV series is unlikely due to the complex rights situation with Fox retaining the TV rights to Firefly and Universal having the movie ones for Serenity.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 10:26 AM

JESSE

I loved Serenity, so I watched Firefly and read the comics - which I also loved! But I don't think a continuation of the story on TV or Film is very likely.

You guys assume that Joss and the cast even wants to continue Serenity now. I work in the entertainment industry directly with people like Joss all of the time. The bottom line is that, while it is a critically acclaimed series and film, moving forward with trying to continue the story now would only hurt Joss's career. It just hasn't made enough money (and probably won't) to warrant any continuation - period. The entertainment industry is all about making money. Regardless off how good *we* know this universe is, it is irrelevant. They would sell cow dung to us if it were profitable. Joss knows this, and he would never put his career on the line or risk damaging his credibility to push one of his failed ideas even if he personally loved it. It worked with Serenity, because the results could have gone either way. I doubt it will work again. Joss will move on with bigger and better ventures that will make much more money. The cast will move on and become larger stars then they are now. The risk factor (in terms of opportunity loss and niche market) will continue to grow as everyone involved with this series moves on with their lives and careers. Of course Joss and company will never tell *us* that, because we are the fans - and if they don't have fans, there is no money to be made. Emotion aside, that's what it comes down to.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 10:31 AM

TALRICH

I just think the whole "Serentiy failed at the box office" statements are a bit odd.

When I hear this sort of chatter, I recall hearing Kevin Smith (director of Clerks, Mallrats, Chasing Amy, Dogma, Jay & Silent Bob Strike Back, & Jersey Girl) speak at the University of Rhode Island. An audience member asked Kevin why Mirimax kept letting him make movies, to which he had a pretty simple response. "I haven't lost them money".

Just like Warren Buffet (among the richest people in the US) is oft quoted, "Rule number one, never lose money. Rule number two, never forget rule number one." As I see it, that's how studio executives need to think.

For Serentity to clear the bar, it doesn't have to be a blockbuster, but it can't lose money. With domestic, international, DVD, merchandise, and TV rights, it isn't a flop, and that's what counts.

Ancedotal to be sure, but I've seen the viral marketing first hand. Before the movie release, I wasn't a fan. A month later, and not just am I a convert, but I've already recruited others eager to buy the DVD.

-Talrich

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 11:10 AM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
For Serentity to clear the bar, it doesn't have to be a blockbuster, but it can't lose money. With domestic, international, DVD, merchandise, and TV rights, it isn't a flop, and that's what counts.

I agree, Serenity will turn a profit. That is not what this thread is about, and that is not what I mean when I talk about "failure." The question is not whether the BDM will make a profit, but whether it will make enough for Universal to greenlight a sequel (or other continuation of the verse). There are many movies out there which made a modest profit, but never got follow ups. Uni needs to believe that it's worthwhile financially to continue the 'verse, and simply turning a profit won't cut it. We have to do better than just break even if we want more.

Quote:
Ancedotal to be sure, but I've seen the viral marketing first hand. Before the movie release, I wasn't a fan. A month later, and not just am I a convert, but I've already recruited others eager to buy the DVD.

That's what I'm talking about! I want people to do exactly what you've done, make more recruits for the DVD. If we want more, we will need to sell a huge amount of DVDs. To sell that many, we can't just sit around talking about how *sure* we are that the BDM will do well on DVD, we need to get out there and keep spreading the word and posting guerrilla marketing. We need to make sure we get high DVD sales by spreading the word of "Firefly" and Serenity to the many, many people who've never heard of it before and wouldn't otherwise think of buying or renting the film. We need to make your anecdote the norm, Talrich.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 2:38 PM

EMBERS

Quote:
Originally posted by WhoIsRiver:
Quote:
Most rental houses, Blockbuster and Hollywood Video the largest, don't carry too many random television series, and I know the ones around here didn't carry Firefly.

But they WILL carry Serenity.

I hate to bring (yet more!) bad news, but just wanted to say Blockbuster are in a contract dispute with Universal Home Video at the moment, and they planning to drop all Universal titles in December (when the DVD will likely appear) if the contract disbute isn't sorted.

Frankly, if Blockbuster is threatening that, it is an empty threat...
Blockbuster is already fighting hard to avoid losing customers to netflix (who DO carry TV shows, and foreign films, and independent films that most rental places don't bother to stock)
if the public finds that they cannot rent movies they want to see from Blockbuster, then they will stop going to Blockbuster...

I also wanted to point out that there are millions of people in the US who have stopped going out to the movies (Serenity it not doing worse than other films this Fall, it is doing better than most of them),

we should find a lot of new people renting Serenity when it comes out,
AND I hope they like it well enough to buy it, and get Firefly too...

Of course we need to encourage people we know to rent it, but the reason DVD sales are such a big business is because people do rent them, and buy them, who won't go out to see the movie in theaters.

(okay, so maybe I'm in total denial...but I plan to stay here...

)

**********************************************
watch the R. Tam Session vids: http://www.hittarivertam.nu/
and buy the 'Serenity' comics published by Dark Horse!

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 2:46 PM

EMBERS

Quote:
Originally posted by Jesse:

You guys assume that Joss and the cast even wants to continue Serenity now.

We assume that because Joss Whedon has said, many times and recently that he has already started writing the sequels in his head...
and because Nathan & Gina & Summer have all said that they are VERY much wanting to do sequals
(I am assuming that Morena & Jewel feel the same, but I haven't heard direct quotes)....
Adam Baldwin said at a convention recently that he would do sequals for film, and then took it back and said that no...he would be happy to do it on TV again too, he loves his character and Joss' writing.

I expect that for the next couple of years we will have to be satisfied with more comics, but I do think that in a few years,
when 'Serenity' has earned a little money...and a larger following, we can expect to get a sequal.
Not immediately, but eventually.

**********************************************
watch the R. Tam Session vids: http://www.hittarivertam.nu/
and buy the 'Serenity' comics published by Dark Horse!

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 3:24 PM

GATORMAN

Truth be told, I was not someone who saw serenity and really didn't pay attention to it until it ran on sci fi. Now I am hooked. The best thing that can happen to firefly is that sci fi takes a chance on it much the same way they did Stargate and BSG.

Figure that a program like Firefly/serenity is a perfect fit for Sci fi because it can be done fairly low budget and the DVD sales for each season is where the real money can be made.

A sequel is a possibility, but if SCi fi wanted to expand programming past friday nights taking an idea like firefly and perhaps something in the star trek universe back to back could fill another night of programming.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 3:41 PM

CATO

Well folks, I just returned from a theatrical showing of Serenity. I had read several positive reviews on PowerLine blog, InstaPundit and other places that pseudo Libertarians like me hang out on the web.

Since my daughter is home from college on fall break, she, my wife and younger daughter have gorged on Buffy mylar all week. At dinner last night I passingly mentioned I had read these reviews of Joss's film, my wife said she had seen the first Firefly but lost it when Fox moved it all over - and so I took them this afternoon before they missed the opportunity.

Although at $6 a ticket the film generated only $180 at the Matinee, the two evening shows on the three screens in St. Louis Friday were Sold-Out, and tonight's evening screenings Pre-sold, too.

FWIW, I am certain someone in my family will buy the DVD for someone for XMAS (and probably Firefly, too); my wife has already IM'ed my son and he and a large group of friends at college plan to go this evening in Wooster, OH (or Canton or Cleveland, if necessary); my older daughter, who viewed it with me this afternoon, has already made some plans to go to Indianapolis next weekend (if it is still showing) with some college friends; and I emailed my sister, who is a Prof. at St. Lawrence to get over to Montreal before it leaves.

So do not despair yet. One chance comment by a grumpy old guy in St. Louis who believes he was born a century too late (anti-stateist) may have generated a pretty decent ripple across the Midwest.

BTW, we are still talking about the 'verse, and deconstructiing the film - what a great dinner!!

Cato

Do you own yourself?

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 3:47 PM

EVANS

Regarding excessive media purchases...

I am a fan of The Billy Nayer Show. I have bought at least ten copies of "The American Astronaut" DVD; at least seven copies of "The Early Years" DVD; at least five copies of each of the seven audio CDs available.

I cannot possibly be the only person who buys multiple copies of stuff.

Oh yeah: three copies of the Firefly series DVDs, plus donations to "the cause."

Embarrassed confession: I have the "Serenity" VCD download.

m.
------------------------------------------------
"But ... not boring, like she made it sound." Wash, in ARIEL
"None of it means a damn thing." Mal, in OBJECTS IN SPACE

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 5:07 PM

GROOSALUGG

I was under the impression that Joss and the cast were signed on for a trilogy, if two additional movies were greenlighted. So wouldn't that mean they're all contractually obligated to do one or two more, if the studio picked up the option(s)?

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 5:35 PM

MEANGOLDFISH

it seems that since lord of the rings, everyone thinks everything is a trilogy.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 5:36 PM

WHOISRIVER

All are signed for sequels, should the studio want them.

Embers - You might consider it an empty threat, but Blockbuster and WB contract negoiations fell down two years ago, and all WB films (including The Matrix) disappered from Blockbuster as a result. It happens. There's a very real threat Serenity won't launch at Blockbuster because of this.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 8:40 PM

BIZZRAT

Hanoverfist, I think the EXACT OPPOSITE. I have seen it 7 timed, 7th just as good as the 1st. NEVER gets old!

You Cant Stop The Signal

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 8:54 PM

HEYMITCH

Quote:
Originally posted by HanoverFist:
This is the problem I see: the movie is not that re-watchable

I have to say that I found Serenity to be every bit as enjoyable and as re-watchable as the series. I've seen the movie twelve times so far. Granted, the desire to see the film succeed is partly responsible for that. However, my twelve most enjoyable moviegoing experiences of the year were my twelve viewings of Serenity (and I've seen a couple of really good films this year--they just didn't move me the way Serenity did).

Despite what people have said about consequences to some of the characters, I wouldn't change a frame of this movie. It grabbed me from the very first frame and kept me captivated until the closing credits, and even though I can now pretty much read the lines along with the actors if I cared to, it's still a damn fun movie to watch.

I've taken a bunch of people to this film, and not a one of them has been disappointed.

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 8:57 PM

RECHELON

"especially the Pacific Northwest"

I just need to say, that one line makes me so freakin' proud.

Just that line.

Makes me feel like it was all worth it.

Damn.

I campaigned in Portland so hard for Firefly. So hard.

And then to see the BDM crash so hard even as I bought dozens of tickets... It's been painful. Bendis never took a symbolic bullet beside me, but I certainly wasted a few disbelieving minutes watching our angels abandon us in the Box Office results.

I don't know when I'm going to work up the energy to go converting again (I'd almost bagged a hundred), but I know that taking five minutes aside to fork over my hard-earned cash for Serenity in December ought to be almost cathartic.

In a lot of folks minds, TV show DVDs are one thing. Movies are another. $40>>$20. Now, I'm not sayin' we should count on anything. Not sayin' we should just expect things to take care of themselves. That's a long wait for a train don't come.

But maybe we can afford to take a few weeks off from the stress. Lord knows even with the best of luck it's still gonna be another long drought.

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 7:43 AM

WAXWING6

"...not a fun movie to watch."????????????

I've seen it twice and loved it better the second time. The are so many layers, you can't see everything in one viewing.

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 9:03 AM

SHINYMOM

Six of us went to see Serenity last night. The theater was packed!! All of us had seen it at least once, some four times, and I'd seen it six times. It just gets better and better. I kept sneaking peaks at the people down the row from me. They were enthralled. People reacted to the humor, the angst, and the triumphs appropriately. There were people in the audience who had never seen it because there was a huge gasp in the crowd when Wash was killed.

When it was over, I heard comments like, "Man, that was great!" and "I told you you'd love it." A number of people stayed through the credits.

I live in Fresno, CA where there has never, to my knowledge, been any kind of Browncoat activity. When we went the first time, I took a friend of my son and his girlfriend who had never seen Firefly. Didn't know a thing about it. She loved it! She in turn took her dad who loved it, too. And then she told her best friend who went to see it and then bought the Firefly DVD set. I think this is going to continue as long as it's in theaters anywhere. And then when ithe DVD comes out a lot of people will buy it or get it for Christmas and the conversions will continue.

So keep going to see it, buy multiple DVD's of Serenity when it comes out, buy a Firefly boxed set to lend out. Keep posting, download podcasts, buy anything Firefly or Serenity that's available.

Let's continue doing the impossible.

"Chow's in ten...no need to dress."

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 9:26 AM

XEPHERYS

Well, the rental options can be helped by customer suggestions as well. I had never seen Firefly before watchnig Serenity at the theatres. After that, I had an insatiable desire to see the series. Best Buy and Fry's near me (Tempe, AZ) had a few copies that sold out quickly, and had a difficult time getting more. Also, local video rental outlets did not carry the series. I've sent a few suggestions in (most notably to Blockbuster) regarding the benefits of carrying Firefly (people in my ship, who are new to the 'verse and want BADLY to see it and people who will be renting it in December, and will want to see the series afterwards). As a side note, I ended up buying the set from Amazon. Only $32 to boot!

Also note, to whomever was putting together numbers above, that total sales figures do not look at retail values of the DVDs, but rather wholesale numbers (what the studios actually make). This is unlike movie tickets, which are estimated by total tickets sold with a ticket average cost in most markets (meaning that adult tickets at $8 and student tickets at $6 probably both get tallied at $8 or $7.50 or some such number).

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 11:51 AM

LOVOK

To those who think Serenity is too painful to watch because some main characters die: you have not seen enough Buffy! Go watch Season 5's "The Body" and then tell me Serenity is too painful to watch again, lol. :)

To me, Serenity represents the most fun I've had at the theater in a very, very long time. It's a hell of a good time with some great dramatic scenes in it to boot.

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 3:42 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by StakeTheLurk:
That means Serenity must outsell “Firefly.” By a factor of 3. Minimum.

And that, fellow browncoats, is a huge amount of DVDs. 1.5 million, minimum (2 million would be much better).

My own guesstimates put the DVD sales at 1.2mil copies - I think that's a very attainable number.

And there's a lot of revenue you're not considering:

- US TV syndication deals (my guess: 90% of $8mil)

- international TV syndication (my guess: 90% of $5.3mil)

- US home video rentals (my guess: 50% of $15mil)

- international home video sales (my guess: 67% of $8mil).

If you look at my original profit/loss post, my numbers do still show Serenity coming in with a net loss, but it's close enough that over time it'll creep its way to profitability.

Quote:
Originally posted by StakeTheLurk:
For some additional (slightly different) information about DVD sales and other financial matters, check out Ebanzai’s thread on how to guesstimate Serenity’s profit/loss: http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=2&t=14021

Thanks for the reference!

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 7:14 PM

NDGEEK

The other issue is that Universal only gets a small percentage of the profits after opening weekend. Opening weekend they get 100% of the box office take, but it ramps slowly down from there.

See: http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/movie-distribution4.htm

I guess a dollar toward a cause is still a dollar, but its certainly weaker than the opening few weeks.

--Chris

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Sunday, October 23, 2005 9:43 PM

TULLYANO7

The Firefly DVD Set had sold 250,000 a couple of months after its release which was about 2 years ago in the US alone.

It has been among the top selling DVDs at Amazon, DeepDiscount DVD and many other online stores for about the last year, and it has been released overseas and is on the top lists of JBHifionline and EZYDVD a full 1 year after its release. The Australian distributer has even run out of stock and has had to import more.

So Please stop saying the DVD set has only sold around 250-500. It would have easily sold at the very minimum 1.5-2 million copies.

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Monday, October 24, 2005 2:13 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by ndgeek:
The other issue is that Universal only gets a small percentage of the profits after opening weekend. Opening weekend they get 100% of the box office take, but it ramps slowly down from there.

See: http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/movie-distribution4.htm

That's interesting. I haven't heard that before. I get the feeling that the numbers used in that article were just an example and not meant to necessarily reflect real distribution deals.

Makes it even harder to guesstimate profitability.

I would like confirmation on this though - I hesitate to trust one single site for info and it's odd that I haven't heard this discussed by industry watchers before.

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Monday, October 24, 2005 2:16 PM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by tullyano7:
It has been among the top selling DVDs at Amazon, DeepDiscount DVD and many other online stores for about the last year, and it has been released overseas and is on the top lists of JBHifionline and EZYDVD a full 1 year after its release. The Australian distributer has even run out of stock and has had to import more.

So Please stop saying the DVD set has only sold around 250-500. It would have easily sold at the very minimum 1.5-2 million copies.

One thing to be careful about the amazon top seller list - I think it's recalculated every day (or who knows, every hour?). So naturally the Firefly DVDs would get a nice spike with Serenity's release. But that doesn't mean it's amazon's nth-best selling DVD ever.

I do agree though, the Firefly DVD set does seem to be a strong seller. I wish distributors were more forthcoming about their DVD sales figures.

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Monday, October 24, 2005 3:04 PM

NDGEEK

Alright I found another site:

http://www.iceco.com/information.htm

It may not be 100%, but its pretty high the first weekend.

--Chris

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