How to guesstimate Serenity's total profit/loss by ebanzai

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

How to guesstimate Serenity's total profit/loss

POSTED BY: EBANZAI
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 00:59
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Monday, October 17, 2005 7:36 AM

First time poster, long time lurker - great work to everyone involved here!

There has been lots of speculation and guesswork about how much the movie has to make, how much the box office numbers matter, how many DVDs need to be sold, etc.

I know a bit about Hollywood (I'm an LA-based aspiring screenwriter) and have tried to compile as much info and hard facts about how the numbers really work. It's still just a guess on my part, but I think a pretty well-educated guess.

The basic approach is described in my blog post here:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/ebanzai?m=90

And my Serenity guesstimates, using the above approach is here:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/ebanzai?m=91

My numbers (some which are blind guesses) add up to a total net loss of $13.4 million.

EDIT: see below - guesstimate is now a net loss of only $6.9mil

Needless to say I wish this weren't the case. But all things considered - including the doom-and-gloom reaction to the weekend box office numbers - it's actually not terrible.

Take a look and let me know what you think. I have most certainly made mistakes or missed certain details.

My overall goal is to make this already biz-savvy community even more biz-savvy. And to more tightly focus the various discussions that obsess over the various weekly numbers and prognoses.

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Monday, October 17, 2005 7:48 AM

CITIZEN

Firstly America isn't the only place in the world where Serenity has been released. Here in the UK last I heard it was at #1...
So...
It's probably best to just wait and see what the numbers are.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you Beeeer Milkshakes!
Even though I might, even though I try,
I can't

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Monday, October 17, 2005 7:55 AM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by citizen:
Firstly America isn't the only place in the world where Serenity has been released.
...It's probably best to just wait and see what the numbers are.

My number guessing game includes total domestic and international box office. The guesstimate is for Serenity's long-term profitability (i.e. total performance a year from now).

Obviously the long-term guesstimates will become more and more accurate as more definitive numbers come in. I'm just trying to set up a framework for evaluating current and future numbers.

I hope the US and international box office continue to show resilience (if not improvement). But I think we've already seen enough of a trend to make reasonable predictions.

If the actual results differ from the predictions, it's easy enough to plug in the updated numbers and recalculate.

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Monday, October 17, 2005 8:00 AM

CITIZEN

I'm surprised (haven't looked that closely into the numbers my self) but the American release has made 20Mil so far, and I do find it a little hard to believe that the rest of the world hasn't added significantly to that.
But if you've done your homework (and it sounds like you have)...

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you Beeeer Milkshakes!
Even though I might, even though I try,
I can't

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Monday, October 17, 2005 8:22 AM

RABBIT2

I wonder if box office returns mean as much as they once did.
It seems to be difficult for any movie to make a profit in the Cinema`s these days.
More money seems to be made on the DVD sales.
And we are all going to by copies of this one ar`nt we?

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Monday, October 17, 2005 8:28 AM

PHOENIXSHIP

Yes! and at $15-$20 a pop, I can't imagine that this won't be the most profitable arena for this movie.

"Why're you arguin' what's already been decided?"
Mal to Jayne, "Jaynestown"

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Monday, October 17, 2005 8:31 AM

GATORMARC

Quote:
Originally posted by citizen:
I'm surprised (haven't looked that closely into the numbers my self) but the American release has made 20Mil so far, and I do find it a little hard to believe that the rest of the world hasn't added significantly to that.
But if you've done your homework (and it sounds like you have)...

I think the difference is that he's looking at profit. If you click the first link, he shows how 50% of the box office stays at the theater, etc.

He's just trying to figure out how much money gets back to Universal, not how much Serenity pulls in.

GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.

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Monday, October 17, 2005 8:53 AM

NIKNAK

I think you've massively underestimated international sales. It's only been released in a couple of countries outside the US yet and if you look at the IMDB charts most films make about the same amount internationally. In the end it will depend on DVD sales and I think it's got a good chance of making more on DVDs than box-office. Still - it's going to be close.

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Monday, October 17, 2005 9:08 AM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by niknak:
I think you've massively underestimated international sales. It's only been released in a couple of countries outside the US yet and if you look at the IMDB charts most films make about the same amount internationally

I hope you're right - the only problem with int'l numbers is that more of the profits go to the distributors than the studio that produced it. I think I saw one number claim that only 13% of total box office revenues come from overseas once you factor in the distribs' takes.

However I do doubt that most movies' int'l receipts equal their domestic take. I think that's likely true for *successful* movies only. I'd be surprised if the average movie even hit 50% of domestic (keeping in mind US-centric comedies and family dramas generally don't do well in foreign markets). Sci-fi should fare better than most though.

And there are certainly movies that play much better abroad than domestic. I think maybe National Treasure did well overseas but was very weak here in the US.

If we up the int'l estimate to $20mil instead of $10mil, that gets it $4mil closer to break even. But for now I stand by my $10mil guess.

Also I didn't include int'l TV syndication deals nor int'l home video sales. I haven't seen any figures there, but I don't think DVD sales are as significant abroad. Still, maybe I should throw another $2-3mil in. And perhaps the BBC will drop another $1-3mil for syndication rights.

If those additions are reasonable, that gets us a lot closer to break even!

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Monday, October 17, 2005 9:14 AM

CITIZEN

Quote:
Originally posted by GatorMarc:
I think the difference is that he's looking at profit. If you click the first link, he shows how 50% of the box office stays at the theater, etc.

I realise that, but I think the estimate of $9Mil international is understated, greatly (given that the UK release alone made over $1.6Mil in the first three days). The fact that it was number one opening weekend also bodes well.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you Beeeer Milkshakes!
Even though I might, even though I try,
I can't

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 11:44 AM

EBANZAI

Quote:
Originally posted by citizen:
I realise that, but I think the estimate of $9Mil international is understated, greatly (given that the UK release alone made over $1.6Mil in the first three days). The fact that it was number one opening weekend also bodes well.

I've done a bit more research on international box office numbers and I now agree with citizen. I've revised the $9mil up to $27.5mil.

I've also tweaked my guesstimation formula and plugged in some new numbers.

The end result gives Serenity a net loss of -$6.9mil. Still not break even, but really not so bad.

Guesstimation formula and rationale:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/ebanzai?m=90

Updated Serenity guesstimates:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/ebanzai?m=91

I'd love more feedback on this guesstimation system so please take a look if you've got the time!

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Tuesday, October 18, 2005 1:08 PM

GIANTEVILHEAD

Those calculations are way too simplistic. We're dealing with a nonlinear dynamic system, you need to use the chaos theory.

"I swallowed a bug." -River Tam

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 12:59 AM

SONOFDORK

Update on UK Box Office.

It stands now at $4,190,557 (converted at today's us/uk rate). In the UK, distributors rarely take above 40%. You are talking 30-40% of the Gross.

Spain weekend box office was dissapointing (9th position) with $483,506. Although it should eventually scrape over $2 million. I'm optimistic!

France, not seen nationwide numbers (although if the Paris attendances are anything to go by it might me the same way as spain). Critically, in France it wasn't 'warmly' received.

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