3 million DVDS of Serenity need to be sold for a Sequel. by harshcritic

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

3 million DVDS of Serenity need to be sold for a Sequel.

POSTED BY: HARSHCRITIC
UPDATED: Monday, November 7, 2005 04:58
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Sunday, November 6, 2005 10:28 AM

(The following has been edited for a more conservative estimate.)

Serenity has grossed $35 million so far and had a production buget of about $50 million including advertising. On another thread, somone said that the cost to make a DVD is only $2.

If Serenity sells between $15 and 20 per dvd, then the average between the two prices is $17.50.
(Most DVDs sell for $15 during their 1st week out.)

$17.50 - 2.00, the cost to make the DVD, = $15.50

15 million is needed for Universal to get out of the red. Also, Universal wants Serenity to earn a profit of $35 million for them to make a sequel. (I am not sure about this number.) Thus, Serenity need to earn a total of $50 million in dvd sales in order to have a sequel.

$50 mil divided by $15.50 = 3,225,807 mil DVDs worldwide

or if you want to go with $20 per DVD-$2 cost a of DVD

$50 mil divided by $18 = 2,777,778 mil DVDs worldwide

WE can sell 3 mil in the U.S. alone, IF EVERYBODY BUYS 3 COPIES OF THE DVD.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 10:41 AM

NERDLOVER

I think your numbers are a bit high. I heard the 80 mil figure too, but I believe it was gross. That figure represents total income from theater, merchandising, DVD sales and rentals etc. I'm not an expert, but I didn't want people to get overwhelmed by those numbers.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 10:52 AM

PSYCHICRIVER

Well im buying two. You cant put that down on the list!

Its a start!

PsychicRiver

"Two by two, hands of blue."

"We'll take care of each other. I'll knit!"
"I swallowed a bug."

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 11:01 AM

KAZZAHDRANE

Are you taking into account that Universal will not get all the money from the sale of a DVD? They pay $2 (from your numbers) to make it, then sell the DVD to the store for maybe $12/$13 apiece (made up numbers, though I imagine the store profit per DVD is quite low), they buy in bulk after all. The store then sells at their price and gets the profit.

Remember that even for the launch of a "small" release like ours there is likely to be some advertising (posters for stores etc), so that's more money the film has to make back.

But yeah, if we all buy it everything will be fine! *crosses fingers*

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 11:40 AM

HARSHCRITIC

Quote:
Originally posted by nerdlover:
I think your numbers are a bit high. I heard the 80 mil figure too, but I believe it was gross. That figure represents total income from theater, merchandising, DVD sales and rentals etc. I'm not an expert, but I didn't want people to get overwhelmed by those numbers.

I changed the figures above. I have no idea about rentals and such so I did not include those figures. To get everyone enthusiatic, I decided to list some awesomely bad movies that did well in dvd sales this is according to box office mojo.

In the US
Rush Hour 2 sold 3 mill copies
Unbreakable sold 2.3 mil copies
Dr. Dollittle 2 sold 2.0 mil copies
Jurassic Park 3 sold 4.3 mil copies
Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back sold 1 mil copies
Terminator 3 sold 4.2 mil copies
The Hulk somd 3.4 mil copies
Matrix Revolutions sold 6.4 mil copies

If we cannot out sell Rush Hour 2 or Unbreakable, then we should not call ourselves fans.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 3:21 PM

KELLYOFLUTHIEN

Do we have any idea how many copies of Firefly have been sold? I would imagine that number could give us a very rough idea of how many people will buy Serenity. Anyone know?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I love my Captain

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 5:02 PM

GORBA916

Quote:
WE can sell 3 mil in the U.S. alone, IF EVERYBODY BUYS 3 COPIES OF THE DVD.

3 copies?! I only need one.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 5:44 PM

RIVER6213

6 million DVDs need to be sold for another movie?
Well, everyone I know is gonna get Firefly the Complete Series for Christmas if they havent already recieved it from me yet, and since the Serenity is gonna be out by the 20th of December, they are also going to get that as a stocking stuffer, and maybe the soundtrack too.

I suspect that 6 million DVDs will be easy to sell.

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 6:48 PM

HONORBOUND

We've preordered our 6 DVDs. (Got a lot of Christmas presents to cover...)

A kind word turneth away wrath, but not as well as superior firepower

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 8:44 PM

GORBA916

[deleted -- sorry double post]

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 8:45 PM

GORBA916

Quote:
Originally posted by RiveR6213:
Well, everyone I know is gonna get Firefly the Complete Series for Christmas if they havent already recieved it from me yet, and since the Serenity is gonna be out by the 20th of December, they are also going to get that as a stocking stuffer, and maybe the soundtrack too.

Everyone that watches Serenity will see how awesome it is. In the extras I hope Joss throws in ample refs to the Firefly. People will go out and buy the series DVD. Watch it; love it. And demand Fox or whoever put the show back on the air! I hope I hope!

------------------------

O Serenity, O Serenity! Where art thou Firefly?
Deny thy networks and refuse thy box-office totals;
Or, if thou wilt not, be but sworn my love,
And I'll no longer be a Capulet....

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Sunday, November 6, 2005 8:53 PM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
Do we have any idea how many copies of Firefly have been sold? I would imagine that number could give us a very rough idea of how many people will buy Serenity. Anyone know?

The studios are always very secretive about the money they get from DVDs, so nobody knows for sure. A figure that was tossed around a lot before the movie came out was 500,000. It has no doubt increased since, but probably not by as much as we would like to think. So, the browncoats are growing but we aren't legion. And thus, we need to do everything we can to help the movie on DVD. I've got a thread with some suggestions on what you can do to help DVD sales: http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=2&t=14173

But buying multiple copies will clearly be helpful, if you're willing and able to do it. If not, no problem. But I sure hope a fair amount of browncoats do it, or we could be in real trouble. Donate them to your local libraries if nothing else.

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Monday, November 7, 2005 4:03 AM

HARSHCRITIC

Quote:
Originally posted by RiveR6213:
6 million DVDs need to be sold for another movie?

I recaculated the figure to 3 million. I think that that is a good estimate.

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Monday, November 7, 2005 4:58 AM

MINEISANEVILLAUGH

Right now Serenity is number 16 on Top Sellers on Amazon.com - and it hasn't even been released yet. (Firefly is #8) Also, a reminder, Universal doesn't get any money from Firefly. So, as much as I love the show - I'd sure like to see Serenity and Firefly switch places on the list (or better yet, Serenity #1 and Firefly #2)

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