Did we miss this article? Good News by TheSentinel

Well, assuming the head of distribution's comment wasn't just spin, I would say they were satisfied with the opening. My guess is they weren't satisfied with the revenue that came in afterward. Are any of us? Before the release I really thought by this point we'd have our 80 million worldwide. And I think we have about half that.

The DVD sales will almsost certainly put SERENITY "in the black" but since we know the theatrical B.O. isn't going to be enough to guarantee a sequel it now falls to DVD sales to get a one greenlighted. Will it be enough? Only time and Universal will tell.

It's happening more and more that movies that don't do all that well at the box office get sequels because of the DVD sales. I'm not getting my hopes up for a SERENITY 2. Because my hunch is the DVD revenue won't be enough and because I'm a pessimist by nature--ironically one of the few things I was optimistic about was that SERENITY would gross 80 mil worldwide (go figure). But the referee hasn't counted to ten and the fat lady has yet to sing. We can still have Faith and Hope (and Trick).

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 8:34 AM

Well, assuming the head of distribution's comment wasn't just spin, I would say they were satisfied with the opening. My guess is they weren't satisfied with the revenue that came in afterward. Are any of us? What I had heard was that Universal wanted 80 million worldwide. And I think we have about half that.

The DVD sales will almost certainly put SERENITY "in the black" but since we know the theatrical B.O. isn't going to be enough to guarantee a sequel it now falls to DVD sales to get one greenlighted. Will it be enough? Only time and Universal will tell.

It's happening more and more that movies that don't do all that well at the box office get sequels because of the DVD sales. I'm not getting my hopes up for a SERENITY 2 because my hunch is the DVD revenue won't be enough and because I'm a pessimist by nature--ironically one of the few things I was optimistic about was that SERENITY would gross 80 mil worldwide (go figure). But the referee hasn't counted to ten and the fat lady has yet to sing. We can still have Faith and Hope (and Trick).

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 9:25 AM

DVD sales will DEFINITELY be enough...YOu can take that to the bank!

Adam

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 1:31 PM

I hope you're right. But I want to make sure I understand you correctly. You're saying that "I can take it to the bank" that DVD sales will be enough that Universal (or any other studio) will greenlight a SERENITY sequel.

I am interpreting that to mean you are saying that I can "take it to the bank" that there will be a feature-length theatrically, domestically released movie that is beyond a reasonable doubt a sequel (or prequel) to SERENITY.

Do I understand you correctly?

If so, I am willing to bet you 1 (one) copy of the SERENITY DVD and 1 (one) copy the super-extra-special-ultra-deluxe edition of the SERENITY DVD (should there be one) that you're wrong.

Comic Books don't count.

If there's a Straight-to-DVD or a Made-for-TV SERENITY sequel (prequels count in this scenario and all others described below), it wouldn't be a theatrically released movie. But it would be live-action sequel to SERENITY so it'll be a partial win for you. Let's say you win ten bucks.

An animated cartoon series set in the FIREFLY 'verse counts as a partial win for you.

If miracle upon miracle there is a new live-action FIREFLY/SERENITY series that retains as a regular at least one (1) of the original nine (9) characters--you win. That means that if another actor should play the part of one (1) of the orginal nine (9) characters (a sacrilege) it's still a full win for you.

If there is a series set in the FIREFLY 'verse but has none of the orginal nine (9), that'll be a partial win--ten bucks for you. If one of the orginal nine (9) shows up a guest star--still just a partial win.

If for some reason there should be a theatrically, domestically released feature length movie that is set in the FIREFLY 'verse but has none of the original cast members (hard to imagine) that'll count as a full win for you, 'cause hey, it's a movie.

If there is a live action Made-for-TV or Straight-to-DVD sequel for the domestic audience, but gets released overseas theatrically, that's only partial win for you.

If there is a theatrically released movie that plays in a few domestic cities (Toronto counts) but ends up not getting a nationwide release--that counts. You win.

If there is a straight to DVD movie and some movie theatre independently shows it on the big screen that doesn't count as a theatrical release.

Just to make it understood there are no conditions under which I partially win. I win a copy of the DVD and the Special Edition DVD (if there is one) if there are no further FIREFLY/SERENITY 'verse stories at all or if they only continue in comics.

Obviously it will take a year or two or three to make sure one of has won. So save your SERENITY DVD receipts.

In spite of all the lawyery contingencies I thought of I consider this a friendly bet among fellow Browncoats that I hope I lose.

Whaddaya say?

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 2:10 PM

URSULA

Quote:
But the referee hasn't counted to ten and the fat lady has yet to sing. We can still have Faith and Hope (and Trick).

Yup, I'm a fat lady and the only singin' I've been doing is the praises of both the "Firefly" and "Serenity"!

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 2:17 PM

KAREL

Flying on duct tape and a damaged registry.

Quote:
Originally posted by RiveR6213:

...

The Process Course of the Virus known as the "Serenity/Firefly Syndrome"

1. Complete denial of the existence of the movie and the series.

2. 1st viewing of Serenity causing brainlock - "What the hell is this?" Syndrome.

3. Obsessive thoughts regarding the movie Serenity - Beginning obsessive behavior.

4. ...

I am in agreement with RiveR6213. I believe that the fanbase has undergone a net increase since the BDM.

I was at my fifth viewing of the BDM (MalsWay's sixth viewing) last night. About sixty in the audience, and about one-quarter of them FIRST TIMERS, based on the "ooh ahh laugh cry yes no -s" coming from the audience. About the same ratio as when I saw it the second or third time (not being as in shock as the first time I saw it).

I overheard somebody explaining to somebody else about the series after hearing "That was a TV show! Whoa! I never saw it!" Heh heh.

We Browncoats are slowly growing in numbers and we will be taking over.

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 2:26 PM

BATMARLOWE

I'm sure we'll both be happy the day you have to pay up! YOU ARE SO ON!

Adam :)

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 2:28 PM

EMBERS

Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
Well, assuming the head of distribution's comment wasn't just spin, I would say they were satisfied with the opening.

well no one mentioned 'Doom' in the article
(which was also made by Universal),
but that cost twice as much as 'Serenity'
and it isn't doing nearly as well...

so I imagine it makes Universal see that 'Serenity' isn't doing so bad,
and will probably turn a profit within the next year,
and they may (I'm betting they will) green light a sequel in two years....
after all, if this fan base keeps growing as it has been
(with replays of 'Firefly' on Sci-fi channel feeding the fanbase,
plus the DVD & eventual television premier of 'Serenity' adding to the fandom,
they could expect the sequel to do MUCH better.

**********************************************
watch the R. Tam Session vids: http://www.hittarivertam.nu/
and buy the 'Serenity' comics published by Dark Horse,
and have you joined the Browncoats yet?
http://browncoats.serenitymovie.com/serenity/?fuseaction=tools.invlink
&u=embers&linkID=36

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 3:09 PM

Isn't that article too "old" to mention DOOM in the first place? I think SERENITY will make Universal a modest profit because of the DVD sales. It's just that I fear it will be too modest for a sequel.

Although, here's another way in which I could be wrong. Assuming Universal will track DVD rentals (not just bulk sales to rental outlets but individual rentals) that would be another sign of encouragement because I have a feeling SERENITY will be one of those movies that people heard good stuff about but just not strong enough stuff for them to go out and see it (unfortunately) but will discover it at the video store. Word of mouth spreads among the general audience, rentals and purchases increase, Universal sees it has a wider audience now. They know Joss can bring a movie in on time and on budget (a big plus, especially if he does the same with WONDER WOMAN) and so they say go ahead--at least we won't lose money.

But my gut feeling is that the B.O. was just too big a letdown for Universal to greenlight a sequel.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 3:15 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
I hope you're right. But I want to make sure I understand you correctly. You're saying that "I can take it to the bank" that DVD sales will be enough that Universal (or any other studio) will greenlight a SERENITY sequel.

I am interpreting that to mean you are saying that I can "take it to the bank" that there will be a feature-length theatrically, domestically released movie that is beyond a reasonable doubt a sequel (or prequel) to SERENITY.

Do I understand you correctly?

If so, I am willing to bet you 1 (one) copy of the SERENITY DVD and 1 (one) copy the super-extra-special-ultra-deluxe edition of the SERENITY DVD (should there be one) that you're wrong.

Comic Books don't count.

If there's a Straight-to-DVD or a Made-for-TV SERENITY sequel (prequels count in this scenario and all others described below), it wouldn't be a theatrically released movie. But it would be live-action sequel to SERENITY so it'll be a partial win for you. Let's say you win ten bucks.

An animated cartoon series set in the FIREFLY 'verse counts as a partial win for you.

If miracle upon miracle there is a new live-action FIREFLY/SERENITY series that retains as a regular at least one (1) of the original nine (9) characters--you win. That means that if another actor should play the part of one (1) of the orginal nine (9) characters (a sacrilege) it's still a full win for you.

If there is a series set in the FIREFLY 'verse but has none of the orginal nine (9), that'll be a partial win--ten bucks for you. If one of the orginal nine (9) shows up a guest star--still just a partial win.

If for some reason there should be a theatrically, domestically released feature length movie that is set in the FIREFLY 'verse but has none of the original cast members (hard to imagine) that'll count as a full win for you, 'cause hey, it's a movie.

If there is a live action Made-for-TV or Straight-to-DVD sequel for the domestic audience, but gets released overseas theatrically, that's only partial win for you.

If there is a theatrically released movie that plays in a few domestic cities (Toronto counts) but ends up not getting a nationwide release--that counts. You win.

If there is a straight to DVD movie and some movie theatre independently shows it on the big screen that doesn't count as a theatrical release.

Just to make it understood there are no conditions under which I partially win. I win a copy of the DVD and the Special Edition DVD (if there is one) if there are no further FIREFLY/SERENITY 'verse stories at all or if they only continue in comics.

Obviously it will take a year or two or three to make sure one of has won. So save your SERENITY DVD receipts.

In spite of all the lawyery contingencies I thought of I consider this a friendly bet among fellow Browncoats that I hope I lose.

Whaddaya say?

Was there some sort of a point in there, other than needless pessimism?

________________________________________________________________________
I wish I had a magical wish-granting plank.

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 3:40 PM

Yes there was. Read the responses above your response.

Yeah, I was proposing a wager, which TheSentinel has agreed to. He predicted there will be a sequel and I predicted there won't be and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.

Whenever people make a bet and the outcome isn't clear cut then there's the inevitable argument over who won the bet. I was just trying to cover all the contingencies that's all.

As to the "needless pessimism" Well, if I respectfully (which I feel I did) disagree with an optimistic statement, why is it "needless" to express that? If a pessimistic response is needless then is not an optimistic response also needless?

If I had flamed TheSentinel then that would be "needless" because then I just would be starting a fight.

But I didn't do that. I said that I hoped I was wrong but that I don't think there will be a sequel and I gave the reasons why.

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 3:43 PM

Truly. Sorry to snap. Don't have a great excuse, but here's my lame one: so many doom-and-gloomers got me down. Now I just jump whenever I perceive that that's the case.

________________________________________________________________________
I wish I had a magical wish-granting plank.

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 3:49 PM

Sentinel:

Here's my email address: batmarlowe@netzero.com
It'll be a better way for us to communicate until our wager is settled.

We will both be happy the day I pay up (if it works out that way)!

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 4:07 PM

Causal:

I appreciate the apology. And I do understand how reading a lot of negative comments about the possibilities of a sequel can take its toll, especially if they were expressed as though those who think there will be or even could be a sequel are complete idiots.

My prescription:

1) Pour yourself a glass of your favorite beverage.

2) Pop your personal shinyest episodes of FIREFLY in your DVD player.

3) Watch.

4) Drink.

5) Repeat as often as necessary.

Take care,

batmarlowe

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 4:09 PM

Mmmm...Scotch and "Out of Gas". Throw in a cigar, and that's the perfect evening.

Oh, and the wife.

________________________________________________________________________
I wish I had a magical wish-granting plank.

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 4:12 PM

Now I'm envious. All I've got is "Out of Gas".

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Sunday, November 13, 2005 5:40 PM

GAZERBEAM

I'm close, I've just got "Out of Scotch". Oh, and no wife. And the DVD's are on loan...
Empty, empty life...

-----------------------------------------------------
"The people who don't care about anything will never understand the people who do."
"Yeah, but we won't care"

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Monday, November 14, 2005 2:31 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by GazerBeam:
I'm close, I've just got "Out of Scotch". Oh, and no wife. And the DVD's are on loan...
Empty, empty life...

HAHAHAHAHA!

________________________________________________________________________
I wish I had a magical wish-granting plank.

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Monday, November 14, 2005 8:42 AM

You could eat a burrito. Then you wouldn't be....out of gas! Ha Ha! Get it?! Burrito, gas?! *nudge nudge* Get it?!

"Out of Scotch". That one's genuinely funny. Points for you.

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Monday, November 14, 2005 9:31 AM

VERMIN

Quote:
Originally posted by TheSentinel:
Also, I think Universal is smart enough to realize this is an exponential growth film. A sequel would do much better.

I'm prone to agree. Here's one piece of evidence I find pretty impressive. Okay, folks, who here has seen The Terminator? Moneywise, you'd think it did pretty well, wouldn't you? The theatrical count, according to the-numbers.com for The Terminator= $38,019,031 Even counting inflation, that's not just a super impressive number for a movie that's so incredibly well-known/beloved. Not to mention that it's total gross comes in *gasp* a little under Serenity's current total.

Okay, now go forward a few years, Terminator 2 hits theaters, it's total gross= $204,843,345. How'd that happen?

I'm thinking that to say a Serenity 2 could overwhelm Serenity's box office take isn't so far-fetched. Obviously, it's happened before.

Note: yes, The Terminator had a much smaller budget than Serenity, about 6.5 million vs. 39 million, but given that Serenity is already in the Amazon top sellers list, I'm going to be optimistic and say that DVD sales will ensure that the BDM gets profitable.

"Did the captain seem a little funny to you this morning?"

"Kaylee, everyone knows I'm the funny one."

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Monday, November 14, 2005 10:44 AM

ALLARTICULATE

Excellent point re: Terminator. It got a huge following on cable (me) and video (my husband). And it had no pre-existing fan base.
T2 did have a great big star, though.
Casting a star in the Serenity sequel could probably get it made easily.

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Monday, November 14, 2005 11:48 AM

STORYMARK

There are several cases of movies that didn't hit big in theatres becoming big on video/DVD, and later getting sequels. Unfortunetly, most of them were made for much less than Serenity, thus making the profit margin much greater.

I think Terminator is a dodgy comparison to make, since by the time Terminator 2 came around, Arnold had become the biggest star in the world at that time, and James Cameron had developed quite a bit more clout as a director. Add to that the fact that the Terminator dealt with nuclear holocaust brought on by a computer-run-amok durring the height of the cold war, at the beginning of the computer boom, and it tapped into the social conciousness in a way I doubt Serenity will ever do. And it still took 7 years to get T2 made.

Not to be a naysayer, since I do think our chances for a sequel are decent. But unless Captain tighpants becomes Tom Cruise (in popularity, not psycosis) and Joss directs a mega-hit or two, I don't think there's too much paralell.

I was hoping to posit Pitch Black as a closer parallel, given that it was a sci-fi film with no big names (at that time), but it had a budget half as big as Serenity, and made $15 million more, so no dice there. And even then, Vin Disel had to become a much bigger star before a sequel got made.

I read somewhere that Joss had planned to do Serenity for somewhere in the $20 million range, but that Universal offered him a bigger budget and he took it. I wonder now, had it been made for less, would a sequel already be in the works?

"Well, my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle."

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Monday, November 14, 2005 12:11 PM

BROWNTROUSERS

Good read. Thanks for the link, glad to see universal are happy with the film and its earnings. This line stood out for me:

"I think over $10 million is a lot of business for a niche appeal picture."

-------Huge Fan of:---------
Firefly
Serenity
Farscape
Andromeda (Early Seasons)

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Monday, November 14, 2005 6:14 PM

But wasn't it Terminator that put Arnold on the map? With Nathan doing another film right around the corner, is it not possible that he could develop some additional star power? Maybe Nathan could carry a sequel all by himself...

Adam

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Monday, November 14, 2005 6:49 PM

ANONYMOUS1

Quote:
Originally posted by RiveR6213:
The Process Course of the Virus known as the "Serenity/Firefly Syndrome"

12. Bought on-line tickets to Serenity that I couldn't attend...like Anchorage, Alaska.

13. Bought Serenity/Firefly stuff for local library.

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Tuesday, November 15, 2005 8:46 AM

VERMIN

Quote:
Originally posted by TheSentinel:
But wasn't it Terminator that put Arnold on the map? With Nathan doing another film right around the corner, is it not possible that he could develop some additional star power? Maybe Nathan could carry a sequel all by himself...

Adam

Right.

I'm not sure where Arnold's fame all came from, but in respect to a parallel with Serenity:
The cast are still working on other projects, gaining a bit more recognition (Nathan, Gina, and Alan being at the top of that list, I think) and Joss is about to undertake two projects that could really come out big. I mean, Wonderwoman is something that folk will flock to just because they do that when you make a famous comic book character into a live action movie.

So, yeah, Terminator 2 owes a lot to Arnold's fame and James Cameron's clout, but I don't think it's justifiable to say that by the time Joss is in a position (at least schedule-wise) to do a sequel, all of our BDHs will still be lesser known names. Just think: Wonderwoman and Slither smash the box offices and everyone starts thinking "I wonder what else Joss and Nathan have done?"

Yes, I admit, I'm excessively optimistic about the whole thing.

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Tuesday, November 15, 2005 8:58 AM

STORYMARK

Quote:
I mean, Wonderwoman is something that folk will flock to just because they do that when you make a famous comic book character into a live action movie.

Tell that to Elektra.

I'm not saying it can't happen, just that the chances of Joss and Nathan both becoming HUGE mainstream stars in the next couple of years is a long shot.

I mean sure, I plan to see Slither, but I really doubt it'll be a cultural phenomenon.

"Well, my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle."

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Tuesday, November 15, 2005 12:04 PM

BAPTISMO

Cant e just email someone at Universal and ask them what the likelihood of another movie is?

Or is all the speculation just too much fun?

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Tuesday, November 15, 2005 2:22 PM