Thoughts on the DVD Release and the Future by SanctimoniousApe

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Thoughts on the DVD Release and the Future

POSTED BY: SANCTIMONIOUSAPE
UPDATED: Sunday, December 11, 2005 14:27
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 12:58 PM

This started out as a response to the discussions regarding the news post on the overseas extended DVD release ( http://www.fireflyfans.net/news.asp?newsid=902), but grew into such an off-topic essay of what I think that I thought I'd post it separately. (My apologies in advance for any mistakes, unfinished thoughts, etc. - I was nearly finished reviewing what I wrote when my toddler and disabled wife took priority and I decided to just fire away.)

First, let me just say that I'm pretty certain there will be a release of the extended DVD for the U.S. - it will have already been created for the foreign markets and merely require a simple conversion to NTSC, so it doesn't make sense for Universal not to do this.

(This is where I veered sharply off-topic...)

The problem is that with theater attendance having been in such a prolonged downward spiral, the studio heads really want to start releasing DVDs almost at the same time as the movie comes out in theaters (with a difference of only a few to several weeks - depending upon the movie) so as to maximize the return on the marketing dollars they spend. Each time they release something - regardless of venue - a good percentage of the cost of marketing it is simply getting people even aware of and thinking about the release (it's extremely tough to make one's offerings stand out in the absolute deluge of marketing we are all constantly subjected to). If they "ride the coattails" of the marketing costs for the theater release, they can significantly reduce the "awareness" marketing costs for the DVD (as compared to having to re-raise awareness of the DVD release up to a year or more later).

Of course many of the creative people who work so hard to make movies an experience worth seeing in the theaters are strongly opposed to this - in the end, however, I believe they'll have to relent. In the past decade or so not only has it become ridiculously expensive to have "a night at the movies" on a regular basis, but many people now have the technology right in their own homes to have their own theater-like experience at a much lower cost (and without having to deal with traffic, purchasing and tracking tickets, other rude audience members, having to be ready at a specific time set by the theater, finding good seats in a crowded theater, etc.).

I tend to think that over the next decade we're going to see a major shinkage in the number of movie theaters operating (or at the very least a major change in the way they operate). It's going to become a lot like live plays in that while there will always be a number of theaters in major cities (and here and there in the suburbs) for those that prefer such an experience, they're mostly only going to run guaranteed hits (such as the only ones that are really making money in theaters now) -- although I'm sure there will be some theaters that specialize in things like independant films and such.

There will be some differences due to the nature of the fact that it is film rather than a live performance, of course -- it won't quite be as centralized as having to go to Broadway to see the latest hit (nor should the cost of doing so get quite so high - I would dearly love to see "Spamalot," but just can't afford to).

Films will run longer in these theaters because a lot of the audience will only decide to spend the money to "see it on the big screen" after they've seen it at home and feel it'd enhance the experience (and if it's worth doing so, then it's probably good for repeat business, too). In fact, this may even be a cause for SOME movies (probably mostly smaller-budget ones) to start being released on DVD first and *then* migrating to the theater if they are successful enough - talk about a major sea-change in "the way things work!"(tm). (This may already have happened for all I know - I don't follow the industry enough to answer that.)

The bulk of the films in theaters will probably be either very special-effects & action-laden (e.g. "ID4," or a "Star Wars"-type film), or be very artsy or "grand" in nature where the full effect just isn't the same at home (think "What Dreams May Come" or "Lawrence of Arabia"). "Date films" and other subject matter where the visual appearance of entire scenes is far less an integral part of the enjoyment of the film will probably all but disappear from theaters (unless the theaters convert to include a combined restaurant or something). Documentaries and such with major visual aspects will continue to be a mixed bag as they have always been ("March of the Penguins" most likely just doesn't have the same impact at home as it does at an IMAX theater).

Adding to the mix is digital theater technology - a theater could have a larger slate of movies to show per week because they can be called up to show at any time. I see a pattern where they'd show more artsy films during the week and the blockbusters on the weekends.

Additionally, the ability to accomdate special showings of virtually any movie in existence (along the lines of the recent post about getting a special showing of Serenity from Regal) could become a noticeable portion of a theater's income - the latest "Shrek" for kids parties (imagine such weirdness as Chuck-E-Cheese taking on AMC), or a Browncoat marathon, for example. Heck, "dinner and a movie" could take on a whole new meaning - taking place all in one location. Some of a 24-screen cineplex' screens would be strictly movie-only, while others would be more of a dinner theater experience (but with film instead of live actors).

Simply put - diversification will be key to a movie theater chain's survival. Being a "one-trick pony" just won't cut it anymore...

I have more thoughts about this probable evolution, but you get the drift by now. So back to the subject at hand - why are we getting screwed with a sub-par version of the DVD? The answer, in my opinion, is the same as it almost always is: money.

Does the fact that studios want to release movies both to theaters and on DVDs nearly simultaneously in order to maximize their marketing dollar have anything to do with it? Do the execs at the top really have absolutely no appreciation or understanding of the "cult-like fan" and are just in a rush to make money over the holidays? Are they afraid to wait to release the full-featured DVD because by the time it's all put together the demand will have died down?

There is possibly (even probably) SOME truth to that, but I highly doubt that's the full story. The movie industry is finally realizing that they are being forced to change their long-standing business models, and as such they are looking for ways to keep maximizing their profits in this rapidly-evolving new world order.

We all know top-level execs (do I really need to insert the name of our "favorite" network here?) can make seemingly "stupid mistake"-type decisions for any of a wide variety of reasons (including the ever-popular "they just don't get it" - which, granted, is true with regard to what happend to Firefly, but cannot be used as the sole reason for what happened), but they are not THAT dumb -- generally speaking, they didn't rise to the top by accident (as in most cases there are a few execptions, of course - the former heads of Worldcom, Enron, and Tyco immediately coming to mind).

Instead, I think (if they are as smart as I suspect/hope) they are taking advantage of the situation like so:

1. Knowing how dedicated and desperate we fans are to keep the Firefly 'verse alive, they are releasing the basic DVD edition now to keep the money flowing in (particularly in light of the holiday season). They know we will spend whatever we can to keep encouraging investment in the franchise and they are looking to capitalize on that.

2. At the same time, they are going to look at these first-release DVD sales to help them determine just how dedicated we fans are - will we continue to buy the merchandise even though the future of the franchise is looking a extremely iffy? Just how dedicated ARE we? And how MANY of us are there at this point?

3. They'll also use the sales info to help gauge likely demand for the extended DVD both abroad and domestically, among other things. It never hurts to have hard sales numbers to confirm they aren't off base in what they are expecting. Taking advantage of the holiday season easily outweighs the cost of potentially eating into sales of the full version when it's ready.

4. When they DO release the extended DVD in the US, it'll be MONTHS later - whatever "fever" for Serenity that may have existed will almost certainly have died down by then. How many of us will still be so dedicated to the cause at that point to still want to buy what is essentially just a dressed-up version of what we already have? Do we have a longevity (and cash flow) that can be compared to the likes of the fan bases of "Star Wars" and "Star Trek?"

5. By the time they release the extended DVD to the U.S., the overseas releases will surely have been ripped and shared on the P2P networks. How many of us will still be buying the extended release despite it being freely available for download?

As you can see, they're going to be able to glean a LOT of info out of this relatively small, but (hopefully) slowly growing fan base without it costing them as much to do this kind of experiment as it would for something with the level of popularity of "Star Wars" or "Harry Potter."

Now is it a bad thing that they are looking to make as much money off of us as they can? For those of us who are incredibly cash-strapped (myself among them - I wasn't able to justify purchasing the Firefly DVD set for over a year after its release), yer darned-well tootin' -- but that's not who Universal is worried about, and as mean as that sounds it's really not a "bad thing." Let's face it - ALL companies are in business to make money and the Universal execs who took a risk on us Browncoats (and - if I remember correctly - spent nearly twice as much on the movie than they originally intended to) have to do what they can to show that this fan base can be a cash cow for the company.

Does it suck that it's going to cost us so much money to convince the studio heads it's worth continuing the franchise? You betcha! You just have to remember that to follow through on ANY cause -- be it as noble as our country's continued freedom or as simple (or even silly-seeming to those who don't comprehend it) as keeping our BDHs alive -- will almost ALWAYS come at a great cost. The studio execs who have to justify the money they spend (now more than ever) just have to determine whether we should be compared to those who fought in the American Revolution, or whether we're more comparable to Don Quijote...

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There are 10 kinds of people in the world - those who understand binary, and those who don't.
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If ignorance is bliss, why aren't there more happy people? (DUHbya should be smilin' out his a$$...)
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 1:40 PM

CBY

Quote:
Originally posted by SanctimoniousApe:
nstead, I think (if they are as smart as I suspect/hope) they are taking advantage of the situation like so [...]

In fact we count on that. The fanbase is building up a huge momentum right now which includes spending insane amounts of money and broading the fan base.

Sure it's sad that money is the key factor in our project, but when I think about what the first-generation-browncoats achieved (I consider myself second generation) there is still hope for us. Without them there wouldn't exist a movie at all.

My point is: We are not yet Don Quijotes. At this juncture I see us more like bees stinging the elefant hoping for a reaction.

And the great demand on the DVD will leave a mark, you can't deny that. Especially since the movie practically came out of nothing (if you never heard of Firefly before).

In the end, only time will tell.

I hope I didn't miss your point entirely ;-)

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Sunday, December 11, 2005 2:27 PM

ORPHEUS

Also, I think there are many people out there who did, in fact, decide that they'd wait for the DVD. I don't think the studios are yet taking into account the people out there (mostly middle-aged/older folks) who don't go to the movies, but would rather wait to rent or buy it on DVD. I mean, there's no real way to know how many of those people there are out there, but they're gonna be a big part of Serenity's life on DVD.

Should Universal decide to release Serenity on UMD, those sales can only help (though I personally can't see why anyone would want to watch a movie on a PSP).

Just my two cents.
____________

"Were there monkeys? Some terrifying space monkeys maybe got loose?"

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