Any hope for Firefly? by millernate

Quote:
Originally posted by millernate:
I have to ask: Is there any hope for Firefly? With a 3.3 rating in week three (baseball game or not) the situation would indicate no.

Yes, there is hope. And even better, there are viewers -- not a huge audience, but enough to build on as a foundation. If you look at most of the "cancelled/waiting for the axe" shows (e.g. PUSH, NEVADA), their first episode had their highest rating and then the ratings fall off substantially week-by-week. FF started off with a middling number and has held up quite nicely with a drop of 10% from episode 1 to episode 2 and then a hold (given the baseball preemption in LA/NY) for episode 3. [/f]

Quote:
1. Can anyone conjur a situation in which Firefly could conceivably be renewed.

A. Post World Series, the show begins to build on its current audience and JOHN DOE holds or builds.

B. "Jaynestown" + "Out Of Gas" = "Must Tivo" TV.

C: The FF drinking games catch on with the college set sending FF into the top 20.

D. AMERICA'S FUNNIEST VIDEOS viewers finally tire of watching Daddy get hit in the balls with a wiffle ball bat, errant tennis balls, misfired model rockets... who am I kidding, the show's been on for 15 years, some people will never get tired of it. Maybe PROVIDENCE viewers?

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2. If not then place your bets here as to when the ax falls (me? I choose after the eighth overall episode, just like with The Tick live-action).

I'd be really surprised if it doesn't make it until at least Christmas. (They've got that big, expensive pilot sitting on the shelf and Fox is too cheap to completely scrap it!)

Call me an optimist, but I think its a keeper.

-MBS

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Monday, October 14, 2002 2:30 PM

ZILL222

I admit I am a taper. I go out and tape( used to be farscape but now)firefly.

You got to have faith

Remember, dropping 500 ft is not a big problem unless you are 499 or less ft above the ground

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Monday, October 14, 2002 4:27 PM

NOVAGRASS

Umm... there's no reason to believe that it won't be renewed.

My reasoning: Week 1, Firefly won the coveted 18-49 demo.
Week 2, Firefly won second in the 18-49 demo. It also did not lose as many viewers as either Fastlane or John Doe.
Week 3, Similar to week 2.

Firefly's ratings haven't been through the roof, I'll give you that, but they haven't necessarily been bad. I belive that Fox has faith in Joss, actually, as silly as that might sound. He's proven himself capable of building a ravenously faithful audience in the past (something that neither Ben Edlund of The Tick, or James Cameron of Dark Angel had done on television before), and I fully believe that Fox will stick with Firefly for at least one entire season. Plus, there haven't been any rumors started *anywhere* that Fox is considering cancellation, which is very surprising to me.

My final reasoning: Gail Berman. Gail has a personal relationship with Whedon. She knows what he is capable of, and I have little doubt that she is at least a tiny bit biased (in Firefly's favor, that is). As long as Firefly's ratings don't become absolutely hideous (they're only mediocre right now), I belive we'll see at least an episode 22.

One final thing... It's really bad that you guys are being so pessimistic. If the fans are this ready to throw in the towel, it's not sending a good message to Fox AT ALL. We need to be supportive, and we need to stop all of this "oh, it has no chance in Hell" crap.

--Dylan Palmer, Pretentious Bastard at Large--

"Oh my god, I'm a hack!" - Joss Whedon

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Monday, October 14, 2002 5:24 PM

JAYNESGIRLFRIEND

Quote:
Originally posted by Novagrass:

One final thing... It's really bad that you guys are being so pessimistic. If the fans are this ready to throw in the towel, it's not sending a good message to Fox AT ALL. We need to be supportive, and we need to stop all of this "oh, it has no chance in Hell" crap.

--Dylan Palmer, Pretentious Bastard at Large--

"Oh my god, I'm a hack!" - Joss Whedon

For me at least its the whole 'expect the worst and you won't be so disappointed if it happens'. I have faith in the show to be entertaining and eventually build a very loyal and fairly large fan base. I do not however have faith in Fox to wait for that to happen.

"I was gonna get me an ear, too." - Jayne

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Monday, October 14, 2002 5:55 PM

JERRY

I'm a firm believer in enjoying every episode as though it's the last. Given Mal's philosophy that every day you keep flying is a good day, I think that's compatible with the show. There is ultimately only one thing any of us can do to keep the show afloat - tell people to watch it!

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 4:10 AM

MILLERNATE

Quote:

Umm... there's no reason to believe that it won't be renewed.

Actually there is plenty of reasons to believe that the show won't be renewed. Last week the show earned a 3.3 finale rating. Allow me to repeat: a 3.3 final rating that is significantly less than Dark Angel averaged (even during its pathetic time period at the Friday 9:00 slot). The show has to do at a MINIMUM a 4.5 average to get renewed and even that would be iffy. Especially when you factor in that the best that a TV show will do in any given season is the first episode (The best you can hope for for the rest of the season is to hold onto as much of the initial rating as you can, it sucks but that's the reality of TV in the age of cable).

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Firefly's ratings haven't been through the roof, I'll give you that, but they haven't necessarily been bad.

Saddly, they have been, they really have been. The final ratings for the show have been approximately:
week 1: 4.0
week 2: 3.6
week 3: 3.3

Even the first isn't good but a 3.3 is less than Enterprise gets and that's a UPN show *shudders*. Ratings of this sort are the type of thing that got THat was Then cancelled. Once and Again got the ax with ratings *better* than this as I recall.

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I belive that Fox has faith in Joss, actually, as silly as that might sound.

If Fox has faith in Joss then why are they doing to him here what TNT did to J. Michael Stryznski with Crusade (interfere in vision, give a completely counterproductive initial ad campaign, show episodes out of order so you have no sense of character development, etc.)? Now you could claim the interference is inherint in networks but the other stuff? Obvious that someone at Fox dislikes Joss.

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He's proven himself capable of building a ravenously faithful audience in the past (something that neither Ben Edlund of The Tick, or James Cameron of Dark Angel had done on television before),

Yes but his following is built on a small-scale "indy" level. Joss has yet to prove that he can "sell" a show to the masses (which a major network show needs to do in order to survive). Buffy is considered a success based more on a comparison to the network its on as opposed to actually being a success (if that makes any sense). Sort of like how Robert Altman's The Player (a movie I loved by the way) ended up being considered a success because it was (more or less) an independent movie and thus had fewer expenses. This despite the reality that it only earned a paltry 21 million or so at the box office (paltry in movie terms anyway).

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My final reasoning: Gail Berman. Gail has a personal relationship with Whedon. She knows what he is capable of, and I have little doubt that she is at least a tiny bit biased (in Firefly's favor, that is). As long as Firefly's ratings don't become absolutely hideous (they're only mediocre right now), I belive we'll see at least an episode 22.

2 things:

1. A 3.3 rating really is very, very hidieous. THat makes it one of the lowest rated programs on Fox (possibly the lowest).

2. As the intenionally (no one could be that stupid to sell a sci-fi drama as stupid camp, no one) counterproductive ad campaign makes clear, Ms. Berman does not call all the shots at Fox.

Its very clear from the networks treatment (they attempted to get out of the signed 13 episode commitment after the initial pilot) of the show that there are elements at the company (and network) that do not like Mr. Whedon's project. IN the byzantine, scheming world of network politics that means there are a million ways to screw the show over leading to ratings falling enough to justify cancelling it (and Ms. Berman cannot be everywhere at once to prevent these from happening).

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One final thing... It's really bad that you guys are being so pessimistic. If the fans are this ready to throw in the towel, it's not sending a good message to Fox AT ALL. We need to be supportive, and we need to stop all of this "oh, it has no chance in Hell" crap.

Given the fact that 3.3 rated shows tend to disappear I find my beliefs are merely mirroring reality. Also, considering that ratings NEVER build, but only fall, over the course of a season I'd say we have even more reason to be concerned. For those who believe shows pick up ratings by word of mouth over the course of a season I'd ask that you name one that has from the last 7 years (and you can't say Buffy as that show picked up ratings through word of mouth between seasons, which is not an option for Firefly).

Nathan
"It looks like a great adventure...That's what it is; that's what it feels like. When I saw the pilot, it was really engaging. It was exciting. It was unusual. It threw me off every now and then. I think people will be grabbed by it." - Ron Glass, on the pilot, during an interview with the Indianapolis Star

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 4:21 AM

MILLERNATE

Quote:

According to a recent Zap2it.com article, "Our Mrs. Reynolds" (the third Firefly episode to be shown) was the highest rated episode to date: 4.3

Actually those numbers are inaccurate as they included the ballgames that preempted Firefly in LA and NYC. This led to a vastly inflated number as the actual rating was a 3.3 (about what Dark Angel got at its absolute lowest).

Quote:

Nielson viewers (of which there are only 1,000 or so official Nielson "families") tend not to watch sci-fi.

But Nielsen sampling is based on advanced statistics and higher math making it the absolute most accurate representation that you'll ever find (supposedly its as accurate as the acturial stuff, and the actuarial stuff is approximately 99% on the money).

Quote:

, they need to pay attention to Tivo records

Tivo records exist but are considered less than useless for the following reasons:

1. Tivo users right not even in the early adaptor stage so they aren't representative of the population as a whole because they are so new.

2. Tivo apparently allows users to skip over commercials. This is bad, bad, bad becuase TV stations need the number to show advertisers and if the show is popular among a format that allows skipping over commercials...well that just isn't good.

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internet buzz,

Like Push, Nevada...oh wait

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C'mon the only thing older and more useless than the Nielson system is the US Electoral College (and look what that brought us).

Actually for all the grief it gave us the US Electoral College is very much still needed. If you want a presidential candidate to campaign in only California, New York, Texas, and Florida then by all means junk the electoral college because they'd end up with even more reason to avoid smaller-to-mid sized states. The system also allows us to isolate problem areas (becuase if we didn't have the "by state" electoral system we would likely end up with one big national election making voting difficulties likely harder to trace).

Quote:

C'mon the only thing older and more useless than the Nielson system is the US Electoral College (and look what that brought us).

Dark Angel's initial ratings for Friday:
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.3
3.7
4.5

All except 1 significantly higher than Firefly's very best. A show absolutely has to receive higher ratings than the one that it replaced for it to survive and Firefly has not.

Nathan
"It looks like a great adventure...That's what it is; that's what it feels like. When I saw the pilot, it was really engaging. It was exciting. It was unusual. It threw me off every now and then. I think people will be grabbed by it." - Ron Glass, on the pilot, during an interview with the Indianapolis Star

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 4:27 AM

JERRY

Quote:
Originally posted by millernate:
Quote:

According to a recent Zap2it.com article, "Our Mrs. Reynolds" (the third Firefly episode to be shown) was the highest rated episode to date: 4.3

Actually those numbers are inaccurate as they included the ballgames that preempted Firefly in LA and NYC. This led to a vastly inflated number as the actual rating was a 3.3 (about what Dark Angel got at its absolute lowest).

Of course, neither number is really fair, as the 3.3 does not include any viewers in the nations two largest TV markets.

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 8:51 AM

HJERMSTED

Quote:

Actually for all the grief it gave us the US Electoral College is very much still needed. If you want a presidential candidate to campaign in only California, New York, Texas, and Florida then by all means junk the electoral college because they'd end up with even more reason to avoid smaller-to-mid sized states. The system also allows us to isolate problem areas (becuase if we didn't have the "by state" electoral system we would likely end up with one big national election making voting difficulties likely harder to trace).

It all depends on what you replace the Electoral College with. Majority Preferential Voting is a much more enlightened voting mechanism for electing heads of state whereas Proportional Representation is a much fairer way of electing congressional bodies.

The American system as it stands predates ELECTRICITY for crying out loud. Changing the American system of electing leadership is LOOONG overdue.

Quote:

Tivo records exist but are considered less than useless for the following reasons:

1. Tivo users right not even in the early adaptor stage so they aren't representative of the population as a whole because they are so new.

2. Tivo apparently allows users to skip over commercials. This is bad, bad, bad becuase TV stations need the number to show advertisers and if the show is popular among a format that allows skipping over commercials...well that just isn't good.

There are already more Tivo watchers than Nielson families. If networks genuinely want to find out what people are watching, they'll pay attention to this. They'd be foolish not to.

TV commercials are just as much living relics as the Nielsons and Electoral College. I don't see how they will survive the broadband digital age (whenever it actually arrives). People hate those bloody things and eliminate them when given a choice. Fortunately choice, in the media consumption sense, is something consumers have much more of lately.

mattro

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 11:16 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Jerry:
Given Mal's philosophy that every day you keep flying is a good day, I think that's compatible with the show. There is ultimately only one thing any of us can do to keep the show afloat - tell people to watch it!

Here, here!

-MBS

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 11:24 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Jerry:
Quote:
Originally posted by millernate:
Quote:

According to a recent Zap2it.com article, "Our Mrs. Reynolds" (the third Firefly episode to be shown) was the highest rated episode to date: 4.3

Actually those numbers are inaccurate as they included the ballgames that preempted Firefly in LA and NYC. This led to a vastly inflated number as the actual rating was a 3.3 (about what Dark Angel got at its absolute lowest).

Of course, neither number is really fair, as the 3.3 does not include any viewers in the nations two largest TV markets.

I think it's even worse than that... my understanding is that it includes the LA and NY numbers in the average -- the number for the 11pm Friday showing in LA and the 4:30pm?? Sunday showing in NY!!!!! Wouldn't that sink it even lower?

I'm really curious to see how the show does this week without any baseball in any market for the first time ever!

My prediction: a 3.8/7 share and a 2.7/9 for 18-49.

-MBS

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Tuesday, October 15, 2002 3:53 PM

TINYTIMM

Quote:
Originally posted by Hjermsted:
It all depends on what you replace the Electoral College with. Majority Preferential Voting is a much more enlightened voting mechanism for electing heads of state whereas Proportional Representation is a much fairer way of electing congressional bodies.

Remember, this incompetent Empire started out as a Republic, a representative form of government considered more stable than a Democracy. The Electoral College is the last safety device. Of course this assumes a competent and educated citizenry. Something this country no longer supports.

Jeff
Who, like Londo, is an old republican...

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002 4:40 AM

GATORMARC

In theory, a straight majority vote would make sense. However, there are so many flaws in the general voting system that it still isn't feasable. Every state had voting irregularities in the last election and a recount could have made either major candidate president.

I think runoff options should be made available too. Say you are told "if you are not voting for one of the two major candidates (defined as candidates of the two parties who received the most votes in the previous election), choose one as a backup in the event that neither of the major candidate recives a majority of the vote in your state."

I have a feeling that we're going the wrong direction with regards to educating the public about the elections and voting rights. Have you seen this campaign finance reform bill in congress?

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002 7:32 AM

ENTILZHA

Believe it or not, I just received a notice in my mailbox that we were selected to be a Neilson family.

So there'll be at least one more Neilson viewer logging in for "Firefly" every frickin' time it's on the air...

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002 9:15 AM

NOVAGRASS

Quote:
Originally posted by Entilzha:
Believe it or not, I just received a notice in my mailbox that we were selected to be a Neilson family.

So there'll be at least one more Neilson viewer logging in for "Firefly" every frickin' time it's on the air...

Yay!

--Dylan Palmer, Pretentious Bastard at Large--

"Oh my god, I'm a hack!" - Joss Whedon

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002 9:44 AM

LIVINGIMPAIRED

I wish I could be a Nelison person. I've got a good demograph and everything!

________________

"You still don't get it. It's not about right. It's not about wrong... It's about Power." —Morph-O-Monster, "Lessons"

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002 12:12 PM

DARKANGELSLAYER

Ok so there's a really slim chance FF will make it, but do you guys think fox'll put the 13 epis out on dvd if it does get axed?

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002 4:08 PM

HAPLO721

I'm going to make it a point to not respond to anyone with "Dark Angel" in their username...

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Thursday, October 17, 2002 11:46 AM

DARKANGELSLAYER

It's possible to like both Dark Angel and Firefly, okay?

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Thursday, October 17, 2002 1:48 PM

KAYLEE

Haplo721, shame on you. That was cold. Don't hate.

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Thursday, October 17, 2002 1:57 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Entilzha:
So there'll be at least one more Neilson viewer logging in for "Firefly" every frickin' time it's on the air...

Don't you mean "one more Nielsen viewer and the rest of my extremely large and demographically desirable, extended family loggin in"?

"whatever it takes to keep us flyin'"

-MBS

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Thursday, October 17, 2002 2:11 PM

AVALON

Quote:
Originally posted by Haplo721:
I'm going to make it a point to not respond to anyone with "Dark Angel" in their username...

Come on, man, that's just rude. You really owe DarkAngelSlayer an apology. The LAST thing we need as Firefly fans is to earn a reputation for being nasty to people -- especially those who are FANS of the show!

DarkAngelSlayer, I read someplace that Joss Whedon was talking about putting the series on DVD, but I don't know where the article is so I can't confirm whether or not that's a done deal. Maybe somebody else here knows...? (Because if it DOES happen, I'm going out and buying a DVD player now... ;) )

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Thursday, October 17, 2002 3:02 PM

DELSIE

Wow. This thread is just over flowing with pessimism. I'm not going to say that Firefly won't be cancelled, because it's always possible. Also, I'm not part of the Fox network. I don't know what they're thinking. In my opinion, it's best to acknowledge the possiblity of cancelation, but still hold out hope for the show's success and not to let the uncertain future effect the viewing pleasure.

One other thing that just jumped to mind: The ratings being quoted are only for the first three episodes. Granted, some networks may make their rulings on this, but it's obvious that Fox hasn't done this for Firefly. There aren't a lot of shows that I watch(ed) reguarlly where I came in on the first episode. Normally, if I become interested during the first season, I'd start watching after the fourth episode. I'm not saying that a majority of fans do this, but it it is a thought to keep in mind when looking at the early ratings.

~Delsie.

"A friend of mine once sent me a postcard with a picture of the entire planet Earth taken from space. On the back it said 'Wish you were here.'" - Steven Wright

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Thursday, October 17, 2002 9:00 PM

HAPLO721

Sorry about that. I'm simply tired of people saying the show doesn't have a chance. Having such a sentiment come from somebody with "darkangel" in their handle doesn't help matters, though I can see now that DAS' post wasn't meant the way I thought it was at first. Forgive me?

Pretty please?

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Friday, October 18, 2002 4:47 AM

ENTILZHA

Quote:
Don't you mean "one more Nielsen viewer and the rest of my extremely large and demographically desirable, extended family loggin in"?

But of course!

Entil

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Friday, October 18, 2002 5:00 PM

TRICKSTER

I for some reason have the urge to fill this thread with images of rainbows and puppy dogs and cute little teddy bears as everyone gathers around a campfire and sings Kumbayah.

Natalie

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Friday, October 18, 2002 6:08 PM

Wow... I haven't had a good puppy dog and teddy bear roast in a long time.... do you serve them plain or with barbeque sauce?

Kumbayah m'lord.... kumbayah....
Oh lord.... kumbayah....

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Friday, October 18, 2002 9:56 PM

TIGRIS

Yes, lots of hopes, tons and tons of hope.

I watched the season premiere (I;m a joss fan) and thought, ehn, ok i guess. Watched the next episode and was ehn, ok, again. then didn't tune in for a while, then saw todays episode (jayneville or something) and said, wow! this is great, i'm marking this time spot down on my calendar! And i didn't just add myself to the growing list, but told my internet friends about it, and had them mark it down. so yeah, it;s only word of mouth, but hey, it does has some loyal viewers, as i've discovered over on TWoP,a nd those viewers have friends, who have friends. and it's only three episodes in for goodness sake. I don;t know when dark angel was in the friday time slot, but was this when the show premiered? or did it already have a fan base? THis is certainly a stinky time for a show to start out at, but i think the network will realize that, and i think advertisers realize that (i mean, they can't all be stupid right?). I don't know how many Neilson "families" there are out there, but i'm sure its not very accurate if already we are saying the numbers are inflated or averaged, or whatever. doesn't sound like we have much confidence in them already. so why not just not bother with numbers for now, and see how the show plays out.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 3:20 AM

HANDSOFBLUE

Theres an online petition. Sign it to help save Firefly

www.petitiononline.com/firefly1/petition.htm

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 5:03 AM

No offense but I believe your link is wrong...

When I click on it I go to a list of search engines, one of which is for petitiononline.com. So I enter "firefly" into that in hopes of finding the petition you have mentioned but I seem to only find 4 other petitions.... one wishing to cancel Firefly because they claim it rips off some anime they love too much; the other three are for boycotting Fox and Firefly until they bring back Dark Angel.

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 7:37 AM

I believe the right link is

http://www.petitiononline.com/firefly1/petition.html

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 7:44 AM

Thank you, I can't imagine how my search didn't find that.

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 7:49 AM

As a Firefly fan I thank you for signing it.

Ask for your friends, mother, dog, parrot, golden fish to sign it too.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:17 AM

YEAHITSME

Just signed it but petition online never work! What we need to do is send e-mail and real mail to the network asking them to keep the show alive!

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:23 AM

Well it depends on the company as to which method would be best. So likely the best plan would be for everyone to sign that petition, plus send an email, and as well send them a physical piece of mail with a hand signed list of petitioners from around one's own area. For that last bit I mean going around to malls, schools, churchs, etc and getting signatures from people that may enjoy the show but aren't die hard fans enough to be spending their time at this website to know about sending their own letter.

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:26 AM

I belive we must try to do everything we can to try to save this show.

A petition is just one of those things.

But actually, I'm not totally convinced of how endangered is this show. Does anyone knows how was the show ratings yesterday's night?

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:32 AM

According to another thread which quotes another website, the early numbers are about 2.7/5

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:36 AM

Oh, if that's correct, than that's really BAD news....

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:37 AM

If you havn't done it already I'd suggest joining the fan club at www.fox.com/firefly

Initially they only ask for an email address, gender, and birthdate so I can only guess from that, that they're using this information to gauge viewership as well.

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 8:44 AM

Its only bad news if Fox executives really have drunken their last brain cells away with expensive booze.

If you look at the website according to the Nielsons, America's Funniest Home Videos beat both Firefly and John Doe.

Ugh, how could America's Funniest Home Videos beat anything?

Common sense tells us that obviously the 1000 Nielson families are very old fashioned types... and thats being generous... Hannibal Lechter wasn't crazy enough to watch America's Funniest Home Videos that much...

--
Funny and/or insightful quote coming soon.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 9:07 AM

REAVER

What does Fox have to replace the show with though? Not much. It would have to be with something like "When Zebra's Attack!" Also there's always UPN if Joss can keep the production costs low.

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Saturday, October 19, 2002 9:15 AM