GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Opening Weekend Pressure??

POSTED BY: SERGEANTX
UPDATED: Monday, September 13, 2004 11:03
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Saturday, September 11, 2004 8:07 AM

SERGEANTX


Why does the media make such a fuss over opening weekend receipts for new movies? I'm not sure what that says about a movie at all. If anything it's just a reflection on the success of the marketing campaign. I never go see a movie on opening weekend precisely so I can read a few trustworthy reviews and make an informed decision. Serenity will be an exception, since I'm already a Firefly fan, but I don't expect others to show up in droves to a movie they know nothing about.

I'm just curious why the press and industry 'experts' place such emphasis on the opening weekend of a movie. It seems counter productive, encouraging studios to focus more on the movies 'profile' rather than its quality.

SergeantX

"Dream a little dream or you can live a little dream. I'd rather live it, cause dreamers always chase but never get it." Aesop Rock

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Saturday, September 11, 2004 9:04 AM

CARDIE


Pressure is placed on the opening weekend because current movie marketing trends are geared to it as a business strategy, and films which open wide and don't do well on opening weekend, unless they should show a remarkably consistent take during subsequent weeks, get pulled from theaters pretty fast.

There are also statistical models that show quite reliably that a movie's total gross can be predicted from what it takes in during the first ten days.

The vast majority of moviegoers are young adults either dating or going to the show with groups of friends, and they generally select from whatever is new at the multiplex that weekend rather than waiting to catch up on something that debuted the week before.

Cardie


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Saturday, September 11, 2004 10:36 AM

MISGUIDED BY VOICES


Quote:

Originally posted by Cardie:
Pressure is placed on the opening weekend because current movie marketing trends are geared to it as a business strategy, and films which open wide and don't do well on opening weekend, unless they should show a remarkably consistent take during subsequent weeks, get pulled from theaters pretty fast.



There are of course the movies that buck the trend - those so-called sleeper hits that catch the mood of the time and actually grow their box-office for the second weekend (whereas many/most films lose 40-60%)

Or those films like Shawshank, that get re-evaluated on the rental market - Austin Powers IIRC fell into that category.

"I threw up on your bed"

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Saturday, September 11, 2004 10:36 AM

EMBERS


Quote:

Originally posted by SergeantX:
Why does the media make such a fuss over opening weekend receipts for new movies? If anything it's just a reflection on the success of the marketing campaign.


When I got to meet Joss at the Chicago Wizard World thing I said I would be going and lining up the first weekend with all of my friends, and he said no,
the first first weekend was Universal's responsibility
he wanted us all to attend the SECOND weekend, because that was HIS responsibility...

I assured him we would all be going to the movie again and again...LOL

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Saturday, September 11, 2004 12:49 PM

SERGEANTX


Quote:

Originally posted by Cardie:
...There are also statistical models that show quite reliably that a movie's total gross can be predicted from what it takes in during the first ten days.

The vast majority of moviegoers are young adults either dating or going to the show with groups of friends, and they generally select from whatever is new at the multiplex that weekend rather than waiting to catch up on something that debuted the week before.

Cardie




...ahh, statistical models. That explains why it doesn't make sense.

I'm wondering, am I being overly cynical in assuming that "young adults either dating or going to the show with groups of friends" means "tasteless dolts who are easily manipulated by ad campaigns"? Naw, I'm never cynical. Or sarcastic.

Anyway, I get what you're saying. Just seems to be a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. Statistical analysis lends itself to confusing 'correlations' with 'causal' relationships.





SergeantX

"Dream a little dream or you can live a little dream. I'd rather live it, cause dreamers always chase but never get it." Aesop Rock

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Saturday, September 11, 2004 2:01 PM

CARDIE


I agree that the models don't accurately predict sleeper hits that gather momentum, like My big Fat Greek Wedding. But those are usually movies that open on a relatively few screens and depend on word of mouth. From all I can gather, Universal wants Serenity to be a modest, mainline commercial success.

MovieImp may check in on this thread to give the perspective of someone in the exhibition business. When we were discussing what it looked like the movie would need, she estimated a $20-$25 milliion first weekend and a total gross of $75 million. That ten-day formula I was talking about says that you multiply the first ten days takings by 2.5 to get the film's expected total gross. I guess it proves valid often enough for the studios and exhibitors to go with it.

Cardie

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Sunday, September 12, 2004 10:04 AM

SOUPCATCHER


Cool. Seventy five million, while still a lot of money, is a lot less than the number I had been using in trying to estimate what it would take for Serenity to be considered a success (100 million). I'm not sure how comparable the budgets are but if Serenity can match the opening weekend of Resident Evil:Apocalypse (estimated at 23.7 million) then we should be okay.

I shaved off my beard for you, devil woman!

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Sunday, September 12, 2004 11:06 AM

DEBBIEBUK1


Did some work on these sort of stats a few years ago (trying to dimension and cost a video-on-demand system should anyone be interested which I doubt), often those which peaked in the first week *weren't* the ones which sold the most over time, and you could see quite distinctly some sleepers making their way up the list. But the way finances work, the studios want their investment back as soon as possible, so they're more interested in the immediate sales, so they can spend on the next project. Total takings depend a lot on how much people like a film and how often they tell their friends, whereas the first weekend depends on how effective the marketing is - which is what Joss was saying about the second weekend I think.

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Sunday, September 12, 2004 11:20 AM

MISGUIDED BY VOICES


Quote:

Originally posted by debbiebuk1:
But the way finances work, the studios want their investment back as soon as possible, so they're more interested in the immediate sales, so they can spend on the next project. Total takings depend a lot on how much people like a film and how often they tell their friends, whereas the first weekend depends on how effective the marketing is - which is what Joss was saying about the second weekend I think.



Plus, I think the studio gets a bigger share of the ticket price in the first weekend - I seem to remember that the percentage for Star Wars:AOTC was extortionate.

That said, the studios also want a movie that had "legs".

"I threw up on your bed"

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Sunday, September 12, 2004 2:59 PM

SOUPCATCHER


I think you're right about the studio getting a higher percentage during the first weeks of a movie. So it makes sense that they want to maximize that take. I guess it all depends on what is in the contract between the theater and the studio distribution people.

Of course, I could be completely off base since everything I learned about profit sharing in movie distribution came from this page:

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/movie-distribution4.htm



I shaved off my beard for you, devil woman!

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Sunday, September 12, 2004 3:16 PM

LIVIDLIQUID


I've been a projectionist and movie theater manager for a number of years and think I may be able to add something to this.

(First, I must brag about the fact that I will see serenity much before it's scheduled release. Tee-hee.)

Anyhoo, in addition to all the above facts stated by others, the opening weekend represents another point. When a film is released, there is a period where close to 99 percent of the box office take goes directly to the movie studios. (George Lucas actually wants a 110 percent share, so for every Star Wars ticket we sell, we actually pay him money PLUS he gets the money from the ticket. Bastard.)

So, a film's opening weekend take also dictates just how much that percentage slides over time. With a film like Memento, which thrived on word-of-mouth, we as exhibitors made much more money, as out percentage of the box-office take grew when the few opening weeks were slow.

So the point of all of that? The studio makes more money by blowing it's proverbial wad quickly than it does from longevity. Longevity is our game.

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Monday, September 13, 2004 11:03 AM

MISGUIDED BY VOICES


Quote:

Originally posted by LividLiquid:
So the point of all of that? The studio makes more money by blowing it's proverbial wad quickly than it does from longevity. Longevity is our game.



Sorry to do you guys out of the bigger buck then, but the needs of the many and all that...

Don't forget, a movie's not just for weekends, its for midweek too. How about gathering people together to go midweek and give the film a midweek bump just before the second weekend? After all, if Browncoats take all the weekend seats (for we are many, and just so durned purtee) - where will the average punter go?

Loud talk of Serenity in the queue is to be encouraged - get your ticket first though just in case it works too well!

"I threw up on your bed"

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